Plasma Elaidic Acid Level as Biomarker of Industrial Trans Fatty Acids and Risk of Weight Change: Report from the EPIC Study.

BACKGROUND Few epidemiological studies have examined the association between dietary trans fatty acids and weight gain, and the evidence remains inconsistent. The main objective of the study was to investigate the prospective association between biomarker of industrial trans fatty acids and change in weight within the large study European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. METHODS Baseline plasma fatty acid concentrations were determined in a representative EPIC sample from the 23 participating EPIC centers. A total of 1,945 individuals were followed for a median of 4.9 years to monitor weight change. The association between elaidic acid level and percent change of weight was investigated using a multinomial logistic regression model, adjusted by length of follow-up, age, energy, alcohol, smoking status, physical activity, and region. RESULTS In women, doubling elaidic acid was associated with a decreased risk of weight loss (odds ratio (OR) = 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.55-0.88, p = 0.002) and a trend was observed with an increased risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.97-1.56, p = 0.082) (p-trend<.0001). In men, a trend was observed for doubling elaidic acid level and risk of weight loss (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01, p = 0.062) while no significant association was found with risk of weight gain during the 5-year follow-up (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.88-1.33, p = 0.454). No association was found for saturated and cis-monounsaturated fatty acids. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that a high intake of industrial trans fatty acids may decrease the risk of weight loss, particularly in women. Prevention of obesity should consider limiting the consumption of highly processed foods, the main source of industrially-produced trans fatty acids.

Bandwidth allocation based on real time calculations using the convolution approach

This paper focuses on one of the methods for bandwidth allocation in an ATM network: the convolution approach. The convolution approach permits an accurate study of the system load in statistical terms by accumulated calculations, since probabilistic results of the bandwidth allocation can be obtained. Nevertheless, the convolution approach has a high cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements. This aspect makes real-time calculations difficult, so many authors do not consider this approach. With the aim of reducing the cost we propose to use the multinomial distribution function: the enhanced convolution approach (ECA). This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements and makes a simple deconvolution process possible. The ECA is used in connection acceptance control, and some results are presented

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

The Impacts of social networks on immigrants' employment prospect: the spanish case 1997-2007

This paper studies the extent to which social networks influence the employment stability and wages of immigrants in Spain. By doing so, I consider an aspect that has not been previously addressed in the empirical literature, namely the connection between immigrants' social networks and labor market outcomes in Spain. For this purpose, I use micro-data from the National Immigrant Survey carried out in 2007. The analysis is conducted in two stages. First, the impact of social networks on the probability of keeping the first job obtained in Spain is studied through a multinomial logit regression. Second, quantile regressions are used to estimate a wage equation. The empirical results suggest that once the endogeneity problem has been accounted for, immigrants' social networks influence their labor market outcomes. On arrival, immigrants experience a mismatch in the labor market. In addition, different effects of social networks on wages by gender and wage distribution are found. While contacts on arrival and informal job access mechanisms positively influence women's wages, a wage penalty is observed for men.

Origin and outcome of multiple pregnancies in Bern, Switzerland, 1995-2006 and the current proposal of the Swiss parliament to revise the Swiss law of reproductive medicine: Switzerland quo vadis?

INTRODUCTION: Infertility treatments are a major source of the increase in multiple pregnancies (MPs). AIMS: The aims of the present study were (1.) to investigate the origin and maternal/neonatal outcomes of MP and (2.) to review the different measures that can be adopted to reduce these serious complications. METHODS: The study included all women with multiple births between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2006 at the University Hospital of Bern, Switzerland. The outcomes associated with the various origins of MP (natural conception, ovarian stimulation [OS] ‒ in-vitro fertilisation [IVF-ICSI]) were analysed using a multinomial logistic regression model. An analysis of the Swiss law on reproductive medicine and its current proposed revision, as well as a literature review using Pubmed, was carried out. RESULTS: A total of 592 MP were registered, 91% (n = 537) resulted in live births. There was significantly more neonatal/maternal morbidity in MP after OS compared with natural conception and even with the IVF-ICSI group. With a policy of elective single embryo transfer (eSET), twin rates after IVF-ICSI can be reduced to <5% and triplets to <1%. CONCLUSIONS: After OS, more triplets are found and the outcome of MP is worse. MP is known to be associated with morbidity, mortality, and economic and social risks. To counteract these complications (1.) better training for physicians performing OS should be encouraged and (2.) the Swiss law on reproductive medicine needs to be changed, with the introduction of eSET policies. This would lead to a dramatic decrease in neonatal and maternal morbidity/mortality as well as significant cost reductions for the Swiss healthcare system.

Unstable equilibrium: young adult women in family and career formation in Southern Europe

The paper examines the relationship between family formation (i.e., living with a partner and having children) and women’s occupational career in southern Europe (i.e., Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain). The relationship is explored by analysing the impact that different family structures and male [nvolvement in caring activities have on women’s early occupational trajectories (i.e., remaining in the same occupational status, experiencing downward or upward mobility, or withdrawing from paid work). This research shows that male involvement in caring activities does not really push women ahead in their career, but the absolute lack of male support seems to negatively affect women’s permanence in paid work. These results apply to all southern European countries except Portugal, where the absolute absence of the partners’ support in caring activities does not seem to alter women’s determination to remain in paid work. The methodology applied consists of the estimation of multinomial logit regression models and the analysis is based on eight waves (1994-2001) of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP).

PACIC Instrument: disentangling dimensions using published validation models.

OBJECTIVE: To better understand the structure of the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) instrument. More specifically to test all published validation models, using one single data set and appropriate statistical tools. DESIGN: Validation study using data from cross-sectional survey. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based sample of non-institutionalized adults with diabetes residing in Switzerland (canton of Vaud). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: French version of the 20-items PACIC instrument (5-point response scale). We conducted validation analyses using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The original five-dimension model and other published models were tested with three types of CFA: based on (i) a Pearson estimator of variance-covariance matrix, (ii) a polychoric correlation matrix and (iii) a likelihood estimation with a multinomial distribution for the manifest variables. All models were assessed using loadings and goodness-of-fit measures. RESULTS: The analytical sample included 406 patients. Mean age was 64.4 years and 59% were men. Median of item responses varied between 1 and 4 (range 1-5), and range of missing values was between 5.7 and 12.3%. Strong floor and ceiling effects were present. Even though loadings of the tested models were relatively high, the only model showing acceptable fit was the 11-item single-dimension model. PACIC was associated with the expected variables of the field. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the model considering 11 items in a single dimension exhibited the best fit for our data. A single score, in complement to the consideration of single-item results, might be used instead of the five dimensions usually described.

Determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned or ambivalent pregnancies

Objective To analyze the determinants of emergency contraception non-use among women in unplanned and ambivalent pregnancies. Method Cross-sectional study with a probabilistic sample of 366 pregnant women from 12 primary health care units in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. A multinomial logistic regression was performed, comparing three groups: women who used emergency contraception to prevent ongoing pregnancies (reference); women who made no use of emergency contraception, but used other contraceptive methods; and women who made no use of any contraceptive methods at all. Results Cohabitation with a partner was the common determinant of emergency contraception non-use. No pregnancy risk awareness, ambivalent pregnancies and no previous use of emergency contraception also contributed to emergency contraception non-use. Conclusion Apart from what is pointed out in the literature, knowledge of emergency contraception and the fertile period were not associated to its use.

A randomized concave programming method for choice network revenue management

Models incorporating more realistic models of customer behavior, as customers choosing froman offer set, have recently become popular in assortment optimization and revenue management.The dynamic program for these models is intractable and approximated by a deterministiclinear program called the CDLP which has an exponential number of columns. However, whenthe segment consideration sets overlap, the CDLP is difficult to solve. Column generationhas been proposed but finding an entering column has been shown to be NP-hard. In thispaper we propose a new approach called SDCP to solving CDLP based on segments and theirconsideration sets. SDCP is a relaxation of CDLP and hence forms a looser upper bound onthe dynamic program but coincides with CDLP for the case of non-overlapping segments. Ifthe number of elements in a consideration set for a segment is not very large (SDCP) can beapplied to any discrete-choice model of consumer behavior. We tighten the SDCP bound by(i) simulations, called the randomized concave programming (RCP) method, and (ii) by addingcuts to a recent compact formulation of the problem for a latent multinomial-choice model ofdemand (SBLP+). This latter approach turns out to be very effective, essentially obtainingCDLP value, and excellent revenue performance in simulations, even for overlapping segments.By formulating the problem as a separation problem, we give insight into why CDLP is easyfor the MNL with non-overlapping considerations sets and why generalizations of MNL posedifficulties. We perform numerical simulations to determine the revenue performance of all themethods on reference data sets in the literature.

A new compact linear programming formulation for choice network revenue management

The choice network revenue management model incorporates customer purchase behavioras a function of the offered products, and is the appropriate model for airline and hotel networkrevenue management, dynamic sales of bundles, and dynamic assortment optimization.The optimization problem is a stochastic dynamic program and is intractable. A certainty-equivalencerelaxation of the dynamic program, called the choice deterministic linear program(CDLP) is usually used to generate dyamic controls. Recently, a compact linear programmingformulation of this linear program was given for the multi-segment multinomial-logit (MNL)model of customer choice with non-overlapping consideration sets. Our objective is to obtaina tighter bound than this formulation while retaining the appealing properties of a compactlinear programming representation. To this end, it is natural to consider the affine relaxationof the dynamic program. We first show that the affine relaxation is NP-complete even for asingle-segment MNL model. Nevertheless, by analyzing the affine relaxation we derive a newcompact linear program that approximates the dynamic programming value function betterthan CDLP, provably between the CDLP value and the affine relaxation, and often comingclose to the latter in our numerical experiments. When the segment consideration sets overlap,we show that some strong equalities called product cuts developed for the CDLP remain validfor our new formulation. Finally we perform extensive numerical comparisons on the variousbounds to evaluate their performance.

When to carry eccentric products? Optimal retail assortment under consumer returns

To understand whether retailers should consider consumer returns when merchandising, we study howthe optimal assortment of a price-taking retailer is influenced by its return policy. The retailer selects itsassortment from an exogenous set of horizontally differentiated products. Consumers make purchase andkeep/return decisions in nested multinomial logit fashion. Our main finding is that the optimal assortmenthas a counterintuitive structure for relatively strict return policies: It is optimal to offer a mix of the mostpopular and most eccentric products when the refund amount is sufficiently low, which can be viewed asa form of risk sharing between the retailer and consumers. In contrast, if the refund is sufficiently high, orwhen returns are disallowed, optimal assortment is composed of only the most popular products (a commonfinding in the literature). We provide preliminary empirical evidence for one of the key drivers of our results:more eccentric products have higher probability of return conditional on purchase. In light of our analyticalfindings and managerial insights, we conclude that retailers should take their return policies into accountwhen merchandising.

Compact matrix expressions for generalized Wald tests of equality of moment vectors

Asymptotic chi-squared test statistics for testing the equality ofmoment vectors are developed. The test statistics proposed aregeneralizedWald test statistics that specialize for different settings by inserting andappropriate asymptotic variance matrix of sample moments. Scaled teststatisticsare also considered for dealing with situations of non-iid sampling. Thespecializationwill be carried out for testing the equality of multinomial populations, andtheequality of variance and correlation matrices for both normal andnon-normaldata. When testing the equality of correlation matrices, a scaled versionofthe normal theory chi-squared statistic is proven to be an asymptoticallyexactchi-squared statistic in the case of elliptical data.

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

To use it or not to use it: differences between adolescent males carrying a weapon and those using it in a fight

Purpose Data indicate that 19% of male adolescents living in Switzerland carried a weapon in the last 12 months. The main objective of this research is to compare the characteristics of male adolescents carrying a weapon and having used it in a fight from those who have carried but not used it in the previous 12 months. Methods Data were drawn from the 2002 Swiss Multicenter Adolescent Survey on Health (SMASH02) data base, a survey including 7,548[3,710 males] in-school adolescents aged 16-20 years in Switzerland. Only males declaring having carried a weapon (N = 711; 19.2% of the sample) were included in the analysis. Three groups were created: those not having used a weapon (WO; N = 538 subjects), those having used a weapon in a fight once or twice (W12; N = 127), and those having used a weapon in a fight 3 or more times (W3+; N = 46). Multinomial logistic regression was performed to compare the 3 groups on individual, family, school, and social factors using WO as the reference category. Analyses were performed with STATA9. Results are presented as relative risk ratios (RRR). Results W12 males were significantly more likely to perceive their puberty as advanced compared to their peers (RRR: 2.1), to be foreign born (RRR: 2.6), to live in an urban environment (RRR: 1.9), to be in vocational school (RRR: 4.7), to have a poor school connectedness (RRR: 1.8), to skip classes (RRR: 2.1) and to quarrel while intoxicated (RRR: 5.3). W3+ males were significantly more likely to be foreign born (RRR: 3.6) and to live in an urban environment (RRR: 2.4), to be current users of illegal drugs other than cannabis (RRR: 3.8) and to quarrel while intoxicated (RRR: 4.1). No differences were found between groups for tobacco, alcohol, or cannabis use. Conclusions Within a national sample of Swiss youth aged 16-20 years, almost one fifth of male adolescents have carried a weapon in the previous 12 months. Nevertheless, most of them (75.7%) have never used a weapon in a fight. Whether they carry a weapon for defense purposes or as a manly behavior remains to be elucidated. However, urban foreign-born adolescents who quarrel while intoxicated are the most at risk of using a weapon in a fight, and therefore culturally-sensitive prevention approaches need to be developed to decrease violence in this specific population of youth. Having school problems or using illegal drugs other than cannabis seem to differentiate between those who use it in a fight occasionally (once or twice) and those who do it more often.

Trade-off between formal and informal care in Spain

The remarkable growth of older population has moved long term care to the front ranks of the social policy agenda. Understanding the factors that determine the type and amount of formal care is important for predicting use in the future and developing long-term policy. In this context we jointly analyze the choice of care (formal, informal, both together or none) as well as the number of hours of care received. Given that the number of hours of care is not independent of the type of care received, we estimate, for the first time in this area of research, a sample selection model with the particularity that the first step is a multinomial logit model. With regard to the debate about complementarity or substitutability between formal and informal care, our results indicate that formal care acts as a reinforcement of the family care in certain cases: for very old care receivers, in those cases in which the individual has multiple disabilities, when many care hours are provided, and in case of mental illness and/or dementia. There exist substantial differences in long term care addressed to younger and older dependent people and dependent women are in risk of becoming more vulnerable to the shortage of informal caregivers in the future. Finally, we have documented that there are great disparities in the availability of public social care across regions.