Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

Multiple Response System: Evaluation of Policy Change in North Carolina's Child Welfare System.

Systemic challenges within child welfare have prompted many states to explore new strategies aimed at protecting children while meeting the needs of families, but doing so within the confines of shrinking budgets. Differential Response has emerged as a promising practice for low or moderate risk cases of child maltreatment. This mixed methods evaluation explored various aspects of North Carolina's differential response system, known as the Multiple Response System (MRS), including: child safety, timeliness of response and case decision, frontloading of services, case distribution, implementation of Child and Family Teams, collaboration with community-based service providers and Shared Parenting. Utilizing Child Protective Services (CPS) administrative data, researchers found that compared to matched control counties, MRS: had a positive impact on child safety evidenced by a decline in the rates of substantiations and re-assessments; temporarily disrupted timeliness of response in pilot counties but had no effect on time to case decision; and increased the number of upfront services provided to families during assessment. Qualitative data collected through focus groups with providers and phone interviews with families provided important information on key MRS strategies, highlighting aspects that families and social workers like as well as identifying areas for improvement. This information is useful for continuous quality improvement efforts, particularly related to the development of training and technical assistance programs at the state and local level.

A multilevel algorithm for force-directed graph-drawing

We describe a heuristic method for drawing graphs which uses a multilevel framework combined with a force-directed placement algorithm. The multilevel technique matches and coalesces pairs of adjacent vertices to define a new graph and is repeated recursively to create a hierarchy of increasingly coarse graphs, G0, G1, …, GL. The coarsest graph, GL, is then given an initial layout and the layout is refined and extended to all the graphs starting with the coarsest and ending with the original. At each successive change of level, l, the initial layout for Gl is taken from its coarser and smaller child graph, Gl+1, and refined using force-directed placement. In this way the multilevel framework both accelerates and appears to give a more global quality to the drawing. The algorithm can compute both 2 & 3 dimensional layouts and we demonstrate it on examples ranging in size from 10 to 225,000 vertices. It is also very fast and can compute a 2D layout of a sparse graph in around 12 seconds for a 10,000 vertex graph to around 5-7 minutes for the largest graphs. This is an order of magnitude faster than recent implementations of force-directed placement algorithms.

The impact of nurse-directed protocolised-weaning from mechanical ventilation on nursing practice: A quasi-experimental study

Background:
Internationally, nurse-directed protocolised-weaning has been evaluated by measuring its impact on patient outcomes. The impact on nurses’ views and perceptions has been largely ignored.

Aim:
To determine the change in intensive care nurses’ perceptions, satisfaction, knowledge and attitudes following the introduction of nurse-directed weaning. Additionally, views were obtained on how useful protocolised-weaning was to practice.

Methods:
The sample comprised nurses working in general intensive care units in three university-affiliated hospitals. Nurse-directed protocolised-weaning was implemented in one unit (intervention group); two ICUs continued with usual doctor-led practice (control group). Nurses’ perceptions, satisfaction, knowledge and attitudes were measured by self-completed questionnaires before (Phase I) and after the implementation of nurse-directed weaning (Phase II) in all units.

Results:
Response rates were 79% (n=140n=140) for Phase 1 and 62% (n=132n=132) for Phase II. Regression-based analyses showed that changes from Phase I to Phase II were not significantly different between the intervention and control groups. Sixty-nine nurses responded to both Phase I and II questionnaires. In the intervention group, these nurses scored their mean perceived level of knowledge higher in Phase II (6.39 vs 7.17, p=0.01p=0.01). In the control group, role perception (4.41 vs 4.22, p=0.01p=0.01) was lower and, perceived knowledge (6.03 vs 6.63, p=0.04p=0.04), awareness of weaning plans (6.09 vs 7.06, p=0.01p=0.01) and satisfaction with communication (5.28 vs 6.19, p=0.01p=0.01) were higher in Phase II. The intervention group found protocolised weaning useful in their practice (75%): this was scored significantly higher by junior and senior nurses than middle grade nurses (p=0.02p=0.02).

Conclusion

We conclude that nurse-directed protocolised-weaning had no effect on nurses’ views and perceptions due to the high level of satisfaction which encouraged nurses’ participation in weaning throughout. Control group changes are attributed to a ‘reactive effect’ from being study participants. Weaning protocols provide a uniform method of weaning practice and are particularly beneficial in providing safe guidance for junior staff.

Awareness of sunburn in childhood, use of sunbeds and change of moles in Denmark, Northern Ireland, Norway and Sweden

Background: Malignant melanoma (MM) is increasing rapidly in Northern Europe. To reduce incidence and mortality through earlier diagnosis, public awareness of MM is important. Thus, we aim to examine awareness of risk factors and a symptom of MM, and how awareness varies by country and socio-demographic factors in Denmark, Northern Ireland (NI), Norway and Sweden.

Methods: Population-based telephone interviews using the ‘Awareness and Beliefs about Cancer’ measure were conducted in 2011 among 8355 adults ≥50 years as part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 2. Prevalence ratios (PRs) with 95% confidence intervals were calculated.

Results: In these four countries, lowest awareness was found for ‘sunburn in childhood’ (63%), whereas awareness was high for ‘use of sunbeds’ (91%) and ‘mole change’ (97%). Lack of awareness of ‘sunburn in childhood’ was more prevalent among respondents from Norway [PR = 1.38 (1.28–1.48)] but less prevalent among respondents from Northern Ireland (NI) [PR = 0.78 (0.72–0.85)] and Sweden [PR = 0.86 (0.79–0.93)] compared with respondents from Denmark. Lack of awareness of ‘use of sunbeds’ was more prevalent among respondents from Norway [PR = 2.99 (2.39–3.74)], Sweden [PR = 1.57 (1.22–2.00)], and NI [PR = 1.65 (1.30–2.10)] compared with respondents form Denmark. Being a man, age ≥70, living alone, and having lower education, were each independently associated with lack of MM-awareness.

Conclusions: The results indicate relatively low awareness of ‘sunburn in childhood’ as a risk factor for MM, and important disparities in MM-awareness across countries and socio-demographic groups. Improved and more directed initiatives to enhance public MM-awareness, particularly about ‘sunburn in childhood’, are needed.

Perceções sociais dos portugueses face aos riscos associados às alterações climáticas

O aquecimento do sistema climático é inequívoco e a influência humana é clara. A continuação da emissão de gases com efeito de estufa irá potenciar os impactes das alterações climáticas, representando um compromisso futuro que se perpetuará por vários séculos. As alterações climáticas não proporcionam uma experiência sensorial direta, embora as variações de temperatura e de precipitação e os extremos climáticos de vários tipos poderem ser experienciados. O cidadão comum não se apercebe do que está a acontecer, a menos que ocorram mudanças significativas, no estado normal do tempo para uma determinada época, na região do mundo onde ele vive. Mesmo para os especialistas, o problema só é cognoscível através de uma vasta rede científica, técnica e institucional. O conhecimento, é portanto, transmitido ao público em geral maioritariamente através de representações dos media sobre o discurso produzido pela comunidade científica. O principal objetivo deste trabalho é averiguar a interligação entre o discurso científico, o discurso mediático e as perceções da população portuguesa na temática das alterações climáticas. A metodologia utilizada, para a prossecução do objetivo, num trabalho que cruza o domínio científico da engenharia do ambiente com o das ciências sociais, encontra-se dividida em 3 fases principais: (1) Uma primeira fase onde se realiza uma análise ao discurso científico de produção nacional, com uma análise de conteúdo aos resumos dos artigos científicos, utilizando 884 resumos da base de dados Scopus de 1975 a 2013 com a palavra-chave ‘Climate Change’; (2) Uma segunda fase onde se analisa o conteúdo de notícias de meios de comunicação social portugueses, aplicando uma análise de conteúdo a 4340 notícias veiculadas por 4 órgãos de comunicação social (Correio da Manhã, Público, RTP e TSF) entre 2004 e 2013, utilizando os respetivos motores de busca online com a palavra-chave ‘Alterações Climáticas’; e, (3) uma terceira fase onde se compila a informação dos estudos existentes sobre a população portuguesa, utilizando os dados dos Eurobarómetros que incluem o tema das alterações climáticas de 1982 a 2014. Seguindo uma linha condutora que inclui o discurso científico, o discurso mediático e as perceções sociais, almejou-se uma abrangência do tema das alterações climáticas, investigando a existência do fenómeno e as respetivas causas, as consequências com a análise dos impactes e dos riscos associados a esses impactes e as soluções através de medidas de mitigação e de adaptação. Nos principais resultados emerge a evidência de que a intensidade de crescimento da produção científica nacional não se traduz num crescimento consistente dos índices de noticiabilidade dos órgãos de comunicação social e desde 2010 que o número de dias por ano, sem notícias sobre alterações climáticas, ultrapassa dos 50%. Em consequência, os níveis de informação da população portuguesa sobre as alterações climáticas são sistematicamente inferiores à média europeia. Em Portugal as taxas de pouco ou nulo conhecimento rondam os dois terços de inquiridos. Não obstante o seu caráter contínuo, para que as alterações climáticas se tornem alvo de interesse dos media é necessário que ocorram reuniões políticas, encontros científicos ou outros acontecimentos. A visibilidade alcançada pelos acontecimentos nacionais é muito fraca e os acontecimentos meteorológicos extremos, não são frequentemente relacionados com o fenómeno das alterações climáticas. No seio da comunidade científica portuguesa existe um claro consenso sobre a existência das alterações climáticas e das suas causas antropogénicas. No discurso mediático português não se verifica enviesamento da informação não sendo surpreendente os baixos níveis de ceticismo dos portugueses. A abordagem aos impactes das alterações climáticas, tanto no discurso científico como no discurso mediático, é robusta e em 2014, cerca de sete em dez portugueses afirma que as alterações climáticas são um problema muito sério. Contudo, Portugal apresenta a proporção mais baixa da Europa de respondentes que percepcionam as alterações climáticas como o problema mais grave que o mundo enfrenta. Para estes resultados poderá contribuir a baixa inclusão de termos relacionados com o risco, tanto no discurso científico como no mediático, não ultrapassando os 20%. Tanto o discurso científico como o discurso mediático não estão direcionados para as soluções (mencionando especificamente medidas de mitigação ou medidas de adaptação). A menção às medidas de mitigação e às medidas de adaptação não ultrapassam os 16% no discurso científico e apresentam valores ainda mais baixos no discurso mediático (13%). Em ambos os discursos existe uma clara preferência pela menção às medidas de adaptação em detrimento das medidas de mitigação. Com valores tão baixos na abordagem às soluções das alterações climáticas não surpreendem os também diminutos níveis de responsabilidade que a população portuguesa atribui a si própria no combate às alterações climáticas.

Technical and economic resources management in smart grids using heuristic optimization methods

Intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) represents a change in the paradigm of power systems operation making small-scale energy generation and storage decision making relevant for the whole system. This paradigm led to the concept of smart grid for which an efficient management, both in technical and economic terms, should be assured. This paper presents a new approach to solve the economic dispatch in smart grids. The proposed methodology for resource management involves two stages. The first one considers fuzzy set theory to define the natural resources range forecast as well as the load forecast. The second stage uses heuristic optimization to determine the economic dispatch considering the generation forecast, storage management and demand response

A study of self-directed learning at an Ontario college of applied arts and technology

Ontario Colleges of Applied Arts and Technology (CAATs) are currently in the process of restructuring to ensure quality, accountability, and accessibility of college education. References to learner involvement and self-directed learning are prevalent. "Alternative delivery" and "paradigm shift" are current buzzwords within the Ontario CAAT system as an environment is created supportive of change. Instability of funding has also dictated a need for change. Therefore, a focus has become quality of learning with less demand on public resources. This qualitative case study was conducted at an Ontario CAAT to gather descriptive, perceptual data from post-secondary community college educators who were identified as supportive of self-directed learning and from post-secondary, traditional-aged college students who were perceived by their educators to be selfdirected learners. This college was selected because of initiatives to modify its academic paradigm to encourage what was reputed in the Ontario CAAT system to be self-directed learning. The purpose of this study was to investigate how postsecondary, traditional-aged college students and their educators perceive self-directed learning as part of the teaching-learning experience within a community college setting. Educator participants of the study were selected based on the results of a teaching and learning survey intended to identify educators supportive of self-directed learning. A total of 317 surveys were distributed to every full-time educator at the sample college; 192 completed surveys were returned for a return rate of 61 %. Of these, 8% indicated instructional beliefs and values supportive of self-directed learning. A purposive sample of six educators was selected using a maximulp variation sampling strategy. A network selection sampling strategy was used to select a purposive sample of seven post-secondary students who were identified by the sample educators as selfdirected learners. The results of the study show that students and educators have similar perspectives and operating definitions of self-directed learning and all participants believe they either practice or facilitate self-directed learning. However, their perspectives and practices are not consistent with the literature which emphasizes learner autonomy or control in course structure and content. A central characteristic of the participants represented in this study is the service-oriented professions with which each is associated. Experientiallearning opportunities were highly valued for the options provided in increasing learner independence and competencies in reflective practice. Although there were discrepancies between espoused theory and theory in practice in terms of course structure, the process of self-directed learning was being practiced and supported outside the classroom structure in clinical settings, labs and related experiences.

Implementation of hospital-wide computer information system :a case study of this change process

This case study examines the impact of a computer information system as it was being implemented in one Ontario hospital. The attitudes of a cross section of the hospital staff acted as a barometer to measure their perceptions of the implementation process. With The Mississauga Hospital in the early stages of an extensive computer implementation project, the opportunity existed to identify staff attitudes about the computer system, overall knowledge and compare the findings with the literature. The goal of the study was to develop a greater base about the affective domain in the relationship between people and the computer system. Eight exploratory questions shaped the focus of the investigation. Data were collected from three sources: a survey questionnaire, focused interviews, and internal hospital documents. Both quantitative and qualitative data were analyzed. Instrumentation in the study consisted of a survey distributed at two points in time to randomly selected hospital employees who represented all staff levels.Other sources of data included hospital documents, and twenty-five focused interviews with staff who replied to both surveys. Leavitt's socio-technical system, with its four subsystems: task, structure, technology, and people was used to classify staff responses to the research questions. The study findings revealed that the majority of respondents felt positive about using the computer as part of their jobs. No apparent correlations were found between sex, age, or staff group and feelings about using the computer. Differences in attitudes, and attitude changes were found in potential relationship to the element of time. Another difference was found in staff group and perception of being involved in the decision making process. These findings and other evidence about the role of change agents in this change process help to emphasize that planning change is one thing, managing the transition is another.

MQFD: A Model for Synergizing TPM and QFD

This thesis presents the methodology of linking Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD). The Synergic power ofTPM and QFD led to the formation of a new maintenance model named Maintenance Quality Function Deployment (MQFD). This model was found so powerful that, it could overcome the drawbacks of TPM, by taking care of customer voices. Those voices of customers are used to develop the house of quality. The outputs of house of quality, which are in the form of technical languages, are submitted to the top management for making strategic decisions. The technical languages, which are concerned with enhancing maintenance quality, are strategically directed by the top management towards their adoption of eight TPM pillars. The TPM characteristics developed through the development of eight pillars are fed into the production system, where their implementation is focused towards increasing the values of the maintenance quality parameters, namely overall equipment efficiency (GEE), mean time between failures (MTBF), mean time to repair (MTIR), performance quality, availability and mean down time (MDT). The outputs from production system are required to be reflected in the form of business values namely improved maintenance quality, increased profit, upgraded core competence, and enhanced goodwill. A unique feature of the MQFD model is that it is not necessary to change or dismantle the existing process ofdeveloping house ofquality and TPM projects, which may already be under practice in the company concerned. Thus, the MQFD model enables the tactical marriage between QFD and TPM.First, the literature was reviewed. The results of this review indicated that no activities had so far been reported on integrating QFD in TPM and vice versa. During the second phase, a survey was conducted in six companies in which TPM had been implemented. The objective of this survey was to locate any traces of QFD implementation in TPM programme being implemented in these companies. This survey results indicated that no effort on integrating QFD in TPM had been made in these companies. After completing these two phases of activities, the MQFD model was designed. The details of this work are presented in this research work. Followed by this, the explorative studies on implementing this MQFD model in real time environments were conducted. In addition to that, an empirical study was carried out to examine the receptivity of MQFD model among the practitioners and multifarious organizational cultures. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to find the hierarchy of various factors influencing MQFD in a company. Throughout the research work, the theory and practice of MQFD were juxtaposed by presenting and publishing papers among scholarly communities and conducting case studies in real time scenario.

Research plan discussion: The socio-technical construction of MOOCs and educator practices in HE

In this seminar slot, we will discuss Steve's research aims and plan. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have received substantial coverage in mainstream sources, academic media, and scholarly journals, both negative and positive. Numerous articles have addressed their potential impact on Higher Education systems in general, and some have highlighted problems with the instructional quality of MOOCs, and the lack of attention to research from online learning and distance education literature in MOOC design. However, few studies have looked at the relationship between social change and the construction of MOOCs within higher education, particularly in terms of educator and learning designer practices. This study aims to use the analytical strategy of Socio-Technical Interaction Networks (STIN) to explore the extent to which MOOCs are socially shaped and their relationship to educator and learning designer practices. The study involves a multi-site case study of 3 UK MOOC-producing universities and aims to capture an empirically based, nuanced understanding of the extent to which MOOCs are socially constructed in particular contexts, and the social implications of MOOCs, especially among educators and learning designers.

Profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture systems in Pampanga, Philippines

We evaluate the profitability and technical efficiency of aquaculture in the Philippines. Farm-level data are used to compare two production systems corresponding to the intensive monoculture of tilapia in freshwater ponds and the extensive polyculture of shrimps and fish in brackish water ponds. Both activities are very lucrative, with brackish water aquaculture achieving the higher level of profit per farm. Stochastic frontier production functions reveal that technical efficiency is low in brackish water aquaculture, with a mean of 53%, explained primarily by the operator's experience and by the frequency of his visits to the farm. In freshwater aquaculture, the farms achieve a mean efficiency level of 83%. The results suggest that the provision of extension services to brackish water fish farms might be a cost-effective way of increasing production and productivity in that sector. By contrast, technological change will have to be the driving force of future productivity growth in freshwater aquaculture.

Directed search with real options

While search is normally modelled by economists purely in terms of decisions over making observations, this paper models it as a process in which information is gained through feedback from innovatory product launches. The information gained can then be used to decide whether to exercise real options. In the model the initial decisions involve a product design and the scale of production capacity. There are then real options to change these factors based on what is learned. The case of launching product variants in parallel is also considered. Under ‘true’ uncertainty, the model can be seen in terms of heuristic decision-making based on subjective beliefs with limited foresight. Search costs, the values of the real options, beliefs, and the cost of capital are all shown to be significant in determining the search path.