The past, present and future of central banking

The financial crisis, on the one hand, and the recourse to ‘unconventional’ monetary policy, on the other, have given a sharp jolt to perceptions of the role and status of central banks. In this paper we start with a brief ‘contrarian’ history of central banks since the second world war, which presents the Great Moderation and the restricted focus on inflation targeting as a temporary aberration from the norm. We then discuss how recent developments in fiscal and monetary policy have affected the role and status of central banks, notably their relationships with governments, before considering the environment central banks will face in the near and middle future and how they will have to change to address it.

Interlinkages and forecasting made possible by the use of the DECOIN analytical tool kit

This technical report is a document prepared as a deliverable [D4.3 Report of the Interlinkages and forecasting prototype tool] of a EU project – DECOIN Project No. 044428 - FP6-2005-SSP-5A. The text is divided into 4 sections: (1) this short introductory section explains the purpose of the report; (2) the second section provides a general discussion of a systemic problem found in existing quantitative analysis of sustainability. It addresses the epistemological implications of complexity, which entails the need of dealing with the existence of Multiple-Scales and non-equivalent narratives (multiple dimensions/attributes) to be used to define sustainability issues. There is an unavoidable tension between a “steady-state view” (= the perception of what is going on now – reflecting a PAST --& PRESENT view of the reality) versus an “evolutionary view” (= the unknown transformation that we have to expect in the process of becoming of the observed reality and in the observer – reflecting a PRESENT --& FUTURE view of the reality). The section ends by listing the implications of these points on the choice of integrated packages of sustainability indicators; (3) the third section illustrates the potentiality of the DECOIN toolkit for the study of sustainability trade-offs and linkages across indicators using quantitative examples taken from cases study of another EU project (SMILE). In particular, this section starts by addressing the existence of internal constraints to sustainability (economic versus social aspects). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of ageing and immigration on the economic viability of social systems. Then the section continues by exploring external constraints to sustainability (economic development vs the environment). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of current strategy of economic development based on externalization and the “bubbles-disease”; (4) the last section presents a critical appraisal of the quality of energy data found in energy statistics. It starts with a discussion of the general goal of statistical accounting. Then it introduces the concept of multipurpose grammars. The second part uses the experience made in the activities of the DECOIN project to answer the question: how useful are EUROSTAT energy statistics? The answer starts with an analysis of basic epistemological problems associated with accounting of energy. This discussion leads to the acknowledgment of an important epistemological problem: the unavoidable bifurcations in the mechanism of accounting needed to generate energy statistics. By using numerical example the text deals with the following issues: (i) the pitfalls of the actual system of accounting in energy statistics; (ii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in BP statistics; (iii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in Eurostat statistics. The section ends by proposing an innovative method to represent energy statistics which can result more useful for those willing develop sustainability indicators.

Serum uric acid and gout: from the past to molecular biology.

Abstract Objectives: This review will briefly present the epidemiology and risk factors of gout, with a focus on recent advances. Methods: Key papers for inclusion were identified by a PubMed search, and articles were selected according to their relevance for the topic, according to authors' judgment. Results and conclusions: Gout therapy has remained very much unchanged for the last 50 years, but recently we have seen the approval of another gout treatment: the xanthine oxidase inhibitor febuxostat, and several new drugs are now in the late stages of clinical testing. Together with our enhanced level of understanding of the pathophysiology of the inflammatory process involved, we are entering a new era for the treatment of gout.

Photographic art and dealing with death

Recently, we were faced with a request from a student photographer who wanted to take pictures of bodies donated to our institute and used for dissection courses for medical students or for scientific purposes. Students are expressly forbidden to take pictures in the dissection hall; however, we allowed this student photographer to do her diploma work in our institute. The reason why she was proposing such a topic was that her brother died young and her parents donated his body to science. To overcome this loss of a loved one, she wanted to know what happens to the donated bodies. She followed the procedure of embalming and different dissections that took place during the summer semester and she took pictures throughout. The outcome of this work was a very nice photographic document, called 'dissection', a book with many pictures but no figure legends. The image document shows the different steps in the preparation and preservation of bodies and the work of an anatomist in the dissection hall. As we impose rules on our students, we had also to give directives in the use of the photographs taken, especially for a photographer who will use the most prominent pictures for exhibitions, i.e. that the pictures do not show names or are used for publication on the internet, or show identification numbers of cadavers, or give indication ofn the institution and are relatively anonymous. This story tells how one can deal with death and at the same time advance one's personal career. The author represents the Swiss Anatomical Society SGAHE and is supported by the Swiss Academy of Science, ScNat.

Practical lessons for dealing with inequalities in health impact assessment

This publication is a companion to Addressing inequalities through health impact assessment (Taylor et al., 2003a), which described what a focus on inequalities could achieve, offered case study examples, and outlined promising practice. This bulletin discusses recent publications and presents a further two case studies that attempt to address health inequalities through the use of HIA. .

Seroepidemiological study of herpes simplex virus type 2 in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the city of Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This study was designed to determine the seroprevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and to evaluate its association with age, sex as well as other demographic and behavioural factors in 150 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive adults patients attending the general medical outpatient ward for routine care of Niterói, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Serum samples were screened for HSV-2 antibodies using an indirect ELISA. Eighty-three patients were men (mean age: 38.8) and 67 were women (mean age: 35.4). The estimated prevalence of HSV-2 was 52% (95% CI: 44-60%) and it was higher among men (53%) than among women (50.7%). Overall, the age of first sexual intercourse and past history of genital herpes were associated with HSV-2 seropositivity. Analysis by gender disclosed significant association of number of lifetime sex partners only among men. Although HSV-2 antibodies were frequent in the study group, genital herpes was reported by 21.8% of the HSV-2 positive subjects, indicating low awareness of the HSV-2 infection. These results may have public health importance for Brazil as the high rate of HSV-2 infection may act as a cofactor of HIV transmission.

Chagas disease in Mexico: an analysis of geographical distribution during the past 76 years - A review

Literature from 1928 through 2004 was compiled from different document sources published in Mexico or elsewhere. From these 907 publications, we found 19 different topics of Chagas disease study in Mexico. The publications were arranged by decade and also by state. This information was used to construct maps describing the distribution of Chagas disease according to different criteria: the disease, vectors, reservoirs, and strains. One of the major problems confronting study of this zoonotic disease is the great biodiversity of the vector species; there are 30 different species, with at least 10 playing a major role in human infection. The high variability of climates and biogeographic regions further complicate study and understanding of the dynamics of this disease in each region of the country. We used a desktop Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction procedure to provide ecological models of organism niches, offering improved flexibility for choosing predictive environmental and ecological data. This approach may help to identify regions at risk of disease, plan vector-control programs, and explore parasitic reservoir association. With this collected information, we have constructed a data base: CHAGMEX, available online in html format.

Capturing and Organizing Prior Student Learning with the OCW Backpack

The purpose of this paper is to present an approach for students to have non-traditional learning assessed for credit and introduce a tool that facilitates this process. The OCW Backpack system can connect self-learners with KNEXT assessment services to obtain college credit for prior learning. An ex post facto study based on historical data collected over the past two years at Kaplan University (KU) is presented to validate the portfolio assessment process. Cumulative GPA was compared for students who received experiential credit for learning derived from personal or professional experience with a matched sample of students with no experiential learning credits. The study found that students who received experiential credits perform better than the matched sample students on GPA. The findings validate the KU portfolio assessment process. Additionally, the results support the capability of the OCW Backpack to capture the critical information necessary to evaluate non-traditional learning for university credit.

Dix erreurs a ne pas commettre lors de la prise en charge d'une prothèse articulaire infectée en orthopédie [Ten errors to avoid while dealing with infected total joint arthroplasties].

Infections after total joint arthroplasty are rare but come with severe consequences. Timely, adequate and standardized treatment beginning at the onset of symptoms will have a major impact on the handling of this dreaded complication. In absences of clear guidelines, errors are often committed, with occasionally severe consequences for the patient. In this article, the 10 most frequent errors starting with diagnostics till antibiotic and surgical treatment will be discussed.

Plasmodium vivax malaria elimination: should innovative ideas from the past be revisited?

In the 1950s, the strategy of adding chloroquine to food salt as a prophylaxis against malaria was considered to be a successful tool. However, with the development of Plasmodium resistance in the Brazilian Amazon, this control strategy was abandoned. More than 50 years later, asexual stage resistance can be avoided by screening for antimalarial drugs that have a selective action against gametocytes, thus old prophylactic measures can be revisited. The efficacy of the old methods should be tested as complementary tools for the elimination of malaria.

The dynamics of Brazilian protozoology over the past century

Brazilian scientists have been contributing to the protozoology field for more than 100 years with important discoveries of new species such asTrypanosoma cruzi and Leishmania spp. In this work, we used a Brazilian thesis database (Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel) covering the period from 1987-2011 to identify researchers who contributed substantially to protozoology. We selected 248 advisors by filtering to obtain researchers who supervised at least 10 theses. Based on a computational analysis of the thesis databases, we found students who were supervised by these scientists. A computational procedure was developed to determine the advisors’ scientific ancestors using the Lattes Platform. These analyses provided a list of 1,997 researchers who were inspected through Lattes CV examination and allowed the identification of the pioneers of Brazilian protozoology. Moreover, we investigated the areas in which researchers who earned PhDs in protozoology are now working. We found that 68.4% of them are still in protozoology, while 16.7% have migrated to other fields. We observed that support for protozoology by national or international agencies is clearly correlated with the increase of scientists in the field. Finally, we described the academic genealogy of Brazilian protozoology by formalising the “forest” of Brazilian scientists involved in the study of protozoa and their vectors over the past century.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

The European Board of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine : the past, the present and the future [Europejska Rada Medycyny Fizykalnej i Rehabilitacji: przeszłość, teraźniejszość i perspektywy]

Right from the beginning of the development of the medical specialty of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (PRM) the harmonization of the fields of competence and the specialist training across Europe was always an important issue. The initially informal European collaboration was formalized in 1963 under the umbrella of the European Federation of PRM. The European Academy of PRM and the UEMS section of PRM started to contribute in 1969 and 1974 respectively. In 1991 the European Board of Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine (EBPRM) was founded with the specific task of harmonizing education and training in PRM in Europe. The EBPRM has progressively defined curricula for the teaching of medical students and for the postgraduate education and training of PRM specialists. It also created a harmonized European certification system for medical PRM specialists, PRM trainers and PRM training sites. European teaching initiatives for PRM trainees (European PRM Schools) were promoted and learning material for PRM trainees and PRM specialists (e-learning, books and e-books, etc.) was created. For the future the Board will have to ensure that a minimal specific undergraduate curriculum on PRM based on a detailed European catalogue of learning objectives will be taught in all medical schools in Europe as a basis for the general medical practice. To stimulate the harmonization of national curricula, the existing postgraduate curriculum will be expanded by a syllabus of competencies related to PRM and a catalogue of learning objectives to be reached by all European PRM trainees. The integration of the certifying examination of the PRM Board into the national assessment procedures for PRM specialists will also have to be promoted.

Reconciling context and contact with immigrants effects: an examination of the Catalan case

Contact theory and threat group theory offer contradictory hypotheses regarding the effect of contact with immigrants. Despite recent efforts to test the validity of both approaches, we still lack a definitive conclusion. This article integrates both approaches and tests the effect of contact towards immigrants and how this changes when different contexts are considered. Mainly, we investigate the effect of the economic environment and the immigrant group size on modifying attitudes toward immigration. The hypotheses, which are tested in Catalonia, show that contact with immigrants reduce negative attitudes towards immigration, especially friendship and family contact. However, mixed results are reported regarding the effect of economic environment and immigrant group size. Whereas the former modifies positively the effect of workplace contact, the latter has no effect. Findings have implications for the impact of context when dealing with the impact of contact on attitudes towards immigration.

Dealing with Errors in QCA

This paper discusses five strategies to deal with five types of errors in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA): condition errors, systematic errors, random errors, calibration errors, and deviant case errors. These strategies are the comparative inspection of complex, intermediary, and parsimonious solutions; the use of an adjustment factor, the use of probabilistic criteria, the test of the robustness of calibration parameters, and the use of a frequency threshold for observed combinations of conditions. The strategies are systematically reviewed, assessed, and evaluated as regards their applicability, advantages, limitations, and complementarities.