Méthodes de rééchantillonnage en méthodologie d'enquête

Le sujet principal de cette thèse porte sur l'étude de l'estimation de la variance d'une statistique basée sur des données d'enquête imputées via le bootstrap (ou la méthode de Cyrano). L'application d'une méthode bootstrap conçue pour des données d'enquête complètes (en absence de non-réponse) en présence de valeurs imputées et faire comme si celles-ci étaient de vraies observations peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la variance. Dans ce contexte, Shao et Sitter (1996) ont introduit une procédure bootstrap dans laquelle la variable étudiée et l'indicateur de réponse sont rééchantillonnés ensemble et les non-répondants bootstrap sont imputés de la même manière qu'est traité l'échantillon original. L'estimation bootstrap de la variance obtenue est valide lorsque la fraction de sondage est faible. Dans le chapitre 1, nous commençons par faire une revue des méthodes bootstrap existantes pour les données d'enquête (complètes et imputées) et les présentons dans un cadre unifié pour la première fois dans la littérature. Dans le chapitre 2, nous introduisons une nouvelle procédure bootstrap pour estimer la variance sous l'approche du modèle de non-réponse lorsque le mécanisme de non-réponse uniforme est présumé. En utilisant seulement les informations sur le taux de réponse, contrairement à Shao et Sitter (1996) qui nécessite l'indicateur de réponse individuelle, l'indicateur de réponse bootstrap est généré pour chaque échantillon bootstrap menant à un estimateur bootstrap de la variance valide même pour les fractions de sondage non-négligeables. Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions les approches bootstrap par pseudo-population et nous considérons une classe plus générale de mécanismes de non-réponse. Nous développons deux procédures bootstrap par pseudo-population pour estimer la variance d'un estimateur imputé par rapport à l'approche du modèle de non-réponse et à celle du modèle d'imputation. Ces procédures sont également valides même pour des fractions de sondage non-négligeables.

Emma Hamilton, a Model of Agency in Late Eighteenth-Century Europe

Emma Hamilton (1765-1815) eut un impact considérable à un moment charnière de l’histoire et de l’art européens. Faisant preuve d’une énorme résilience, elle trouva un moyen efficace d’affirmer son agentivité et fut une source d’inspiration puissante pour des générations de femmes et d’artistes dans leur propre quête d’expression et de réalisation de soi. Cette thèse démontre qu’Emma tira sa puissance particulière de sa capacité à négocier des identités différentes et parfois même contradictoires – objet et sujet ; modèle et portraiturée ; artiste, muse et œuvre d’art ; épouse, maîtresse et prostituée ; roturière et aristocrate ; mondaine et ambassadrice : et interprète d’une myriade de caractères historiques, bibliques, littéraires et mythologiques, tant masculins que féminins. Épouse de l’ambassadeur anglais à Naples, favorite de la reine de Naples et amante de l’amiral Horatio Nelson, elle fut un agent sur la scène politique pendant l’époque révolutionnaire et napoléonienne. Dans son ascension sociale vertigineuse qui la mena de la plus abjecte misère aux plus hauts échelons de l’aristocratie anglaise, elle sut s’adapter, s’ajuster et se réinventer. Elle reçut et divertit d’innombrables écrivains, artistes, scientifiques, nobles, diplomates et membres de la royauté. Elle participa au développement et à la dissémination du néoclassicisme au moment même de son efflorescence. Elle créa ses Attitudes, une performance répondant au goût de son époque pour le classicisme, qui fut admirée et imitée à travers l’Europe et qui inspira des générations d’interprètes féminines. Elle apprit à danser la tarentelle et l’introduisit dans les salons aristocratiques. Elle influença un réseau de femmes s’étendant de Paris à Saint-Pétersbourg et incluant Élisabeth Vigée-Le Brun, Germaine de Staël et Juliette Récamier. Modèle hors pair, elle inspira plusieurs artistes pour la production d’œuvres qu’ils reconnurent comme parmi leurs meilleures. Elle fut représentée par les plus grands artistes de son temps, dont Angelica Kauffman, Benjamin West, Élisabeth Vigée-Le Brun, George Romney, James Gillray, Joseph Nollekens, Joshua Reynolds, Thomas Lawrence et Thomas Rowlandson. Elle bouscula, de façon répétée, les limites et mœurs sociales. Néanmoins, Emma ne tentait pas de présenter une identité cohérente, unifiée, polie. Au contraire, elle était un kaléidoscope de multiples « sois » qu’elle gardait actifs et en dialogue les uns avec les autres, réarrangeant continuellement ses facettes afin de pouvoir simultanément s’exprimer pleinement et présenter aux autres ce qu’ils voulaient voir.

Prognozowanie stężeń pyłku leszczyny, olszy i brzozy w powietrzu atmosferycznym na obszarze Polski

Wydział Nauk Geograficznych i Geologicznych: Instytut Geoekologii i Geoinformacji

MJO Simulation Diagnostics

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) interacts with and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, midlatitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multimodel comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, because of the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation to more sophisticated space–time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

Perspex machine

We introduce the perspex machine which unifies projective geometry and the Turing machine, resulting in a supra-Turing machine. Specifically, we show that a Universal Register Machine (URM) can be implemented as a conditional series of whole numbered projective transformations. This leads naturally to a suggestion that it might be possible to construct a perspex machine as a series of pin-holes and stops. A rough calculation shows that an ultraviolet perspex machine might operate up to the petahertz range of operations per second. Surprisingly, we find that perspex space is irreversible in time, which might make it a candidate for an anisotropic spacetime geometry in physical theories. We make a bold hypothesis that the apparent irreversibility of physical time is due to the random nature of quantum events, but suggest that a sum over histories might be achieved by sampling fluctuations in the direction of time flow. We propose an experiment, based on the Casimir apparatus, that should measure fluctuations of time flow with respect to time duration- if such fluctuations exist.

Robot free will

We introduce the perspex machine which unifies projective geometry and Turing computation and results in a supra-Turing machine. We show two ways in which the perspex machine unifies symbolic and non-symbolic AI. Firstly, we describe concrete geometrical models that map perspexes onto neural networks, some of which perform only symbolic operations. Secondly, we describe an abstract continuum of perspex logics that includes both symbolic logics and a new class of continuous logics. We argue that an axiom in symbolic logic can be the conclusion of a perspex theorem. That is, the atoms of symbolic logic can be the conclusions of sub-atomic theorems. We argue that perspex space can be mapped onto the spacetime of the universe we inhabit. This allows us to discuss how a robot might be conscious, feel, and have free will in a deterministic, or semi-deterministic, universe. We ground the reality of our universe in existence. On a theistic point, we argue that preordination and free will are compatible. On a theological point, we argue that it is not heretical for us to give robots free will. Finally, we give a pragmatic warning as to the double-edged risks of creating robots that do, or alternatively do not, have free will.

Transient climate change simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM including the tropospheric sulfur cycle

The time-dependent climate response to changing concentrations of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is studied using a coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and the ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC3). The concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFCs are prescribed for the past (1860–1990) and projected into the future according to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a. In addition, the space–time distribution of tropospheric ozone is prescribed, and the tropospheric sulfur cycle is calculated within the coupled model using sulfur emissions of the past and projected into the future (IS92a). The radiative impact of the aerosols is considered via both the direct and the indirect (i.e., through cloud albedo) effect. It is shown that the simulated trend in sulfate deposition since the end of the last century is broadly consistent with ice core measurements, and the calculated radiative forcings from preindustrial to present time are within the uncertainty range estimated by IPCC. Three climate perturbation experiments are performed, applying different forcing mechanisms, and the results are compared with those obtained from a 300-yr unforced control experiment. As in previous experiments, the climate response is similar, but weaker, if aerosol effects are included in addition to greenhouse gases. One notable difference to previous experiments is that the strength of the Indian summer monsoon is not fundamentally affected by the inclusion of aerosol effects. Although the monsoon is damped compared to a greenhouse gas only experiment, it is still more vigorous than in the control experiment. This different behavior, compared to previous studies, is the result of the different land–sea distribution of aerosol forcing. Somewhat unexpected, the intensity of the global hydrological cycle becomes weaker in a warmer climate if both direct and indirect aerosol effects are included in addition to the greenhouse gases. This can be related to anomalous net radiative cooling of the earth’s surface through aerosols, which is balanced by reduced turbulent transfer of both sensible and latent heat from the surface to the atmosphere.

Bollène-2002 experiment: radar quantitative precipitation estimation in the Cévennes–Vivarais region, France

The Bollène-2002 Experiment was aimed at developing the use of a radar volume-scanning strategy for conducting radar rainfall estimations in the mountainous regions of France. A developmental radar processing system, called Traitements Régionalisés et Adaptatifs de Données Radar pour l’Hydrologie (Regionalized and Adaptive Radar Data Processing for Hydrological Applications), has been built and several algorithms were specifically produced as part of this project. These algorithms include 1) a clutter identification technique based on the pulse-to-pulse variability of reflectivity Z for noncoherent radar, 2) a coupled procedure for determining a rain partition between convective and widespread rainfall R and the associated normalized vertical profiles of reflectivity, and 3) a method for calculating reflectivity at ground level from reflectivities measured aloft. Several radar processing strategies, including nonadaptive, time-adaptive, and space–time-adaptive variants, have been implemented to assess the performance of these new algorithms. Reference rainfall data were derived from a careful analysis of rain gauge datasets furnished by the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. The assessment criteria for five intense and long-lasting Mediterranean rain events have proven that good quantitative precipitation estimates can be obtained from radar data alone within 100-km range by using well-sited, well-maintained radar systems and sophisticated, physically based data-processing systems. The basic requirements entail performing accurate electronic calibration and stability verification, determining the radar detection domain, achieving efficient clutter elimination, and capturing the vertical structure(s) of reflectivity for the target event. Radar performance was shown to depend on type of rainfall, with better results obtained with deep convective rain systems (Nash coefficients of roughly 0.90 for point radar–rain gauge comparisons at the event time step), as opposed to shallow convective and frontal rain systems (Nash coefficients in the 0.6–0.8 range). In comparison with time-adaptive strategies, the space–time-adaptive strategy yields a very significant reduction in the radar–rain gauge bias while the level of scatter remains basically unchanged. Because the Z–R relationships have not been optimized in this study, results are attributed to an improved processing of spatial variations in the vertical profile of reflectivity. The two main recommendations for future work consist of adapting the rain separation method for radar network operations and documenting Z–R relationships conditional on rainfall type.

The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory

The Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory (OHM-CV) is a research initiative aimed at improving the understanding and modeling of the Mediterranean intense rain events that frequently result in devastating flash floods in southern France. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, modelers and instrumentalists, researchers and practitioners, to cope with these rather unpredictable events. In line with previously published flash-flood monographs, the present paper aims at documenting the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic event, which resulted in 24 casualties and an economic damage evaluated at 1.2 billion euros (i.e., about 1 billion U.S. dollars) in the Gard region, France. A description of the synoptic meteorological situation is first given and shows that no particular precursor indicated the imminence of such an extreme event. Then, radar and rain gauge analyses are used to assess the magnitude of the rain event, which was particularly remarkable for its spatial extent with rain amounts greater than 200 mm in 24 h over 5500 km2. The maximum values of 600–700 mm observed locally are among the highest daily records in the region. The preliminary results of the postevent hydrological investigation show that the hydrologic response of the upstream watersheds of the Gard and Vidourle Rivers is consistent with the marked space–time structure of the rain event. It is noteworthy that peak specific discharges were very high over most of the affected areas (5–10 m3 s−1 km−2) and reached locally extraordinary values of more than 20 m3 s−1 km−2. A preliminary analysis indicates contrasting hydrological behaviors that seem to be related to geomorphological factors, notably the influence of karst in part of the region. An overview of the ongoing meteorological and hydrological research projects devoted to this case study within the OHM-CV is finally presented.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Quantized fields and gravitational particle creation in f (R) expanding universes

The problem of cosmological particle creation for a spatially flat, homogeneous and isotropic universes is discussed in the context of f (R) theories of gravity. Different from cosmological models based on general relativity theory, it is found that a conformal invariant metric does not forbid the creation of massless particles during the early stages (radiation era) of the universe. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pulsating strings in Lunin-Maldacena backgrounds

We consider pulsating strings in Lunin-Maldacena backgrounds, specifically in deformed Minkowski spacetime and deformed AdS(5) x S(5). We find the relation between the energy and the oscillation number of the pulsating string when the deformation is small. Since the oscillation number is an adiabatic invariant it can be used to explore the regime of highly excited string states. We then quantize the string and look for such a sector. For the deformed Minkowski background we find a precise match with the classical results if the oscillation number is quantized as an even number. For the deformed AdS(5) x S(5) we find a contribution which depends on the deformation parameter.

Notes on beta-deformations of the pure spinor superstring in AdS(5) x S(5)

We study the properties of the vertex operator for the beta-deformation of the superstring in AdS(5) x S(5) in the pure spinor formalism. We discuss the action of supersymmetry on the infinitesimal beta-deformation, the application of the homological perturbation theory, and the relation between the worldsheet description and the spacetime supergravity description. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Renormalization of the S parameter in holographic models of electroweak symmetry breaking

We show that the S parameter is not finite in theories of electroweak symmetry breaking in a slice of anti-de Sitter five-dimensional space, with the light fermions localized in the ultraviolet. We compute the one-loop contributions to S from the Higgs sector and show that they are logarithmically dependent on the cutoff of the theory. We discuss the renormalization of S, as well as the implications for bounds from electroweak precision measurements on these models. We argue that, although in principle the choice of renormalization condition could eliminate the S parameter constraint, a more consistent condition would still result in a large and positive S. On the other hand, we show that the dependence on the Higgs mass in S can be entirely eliminated by the renormalization procedure, making it impossible in these theories to extract a Higgs mass bound from electroweak precision constraints.

Quasinormal modes of semiclassical electrically charged black holes

We report the results concerning the influence of vacuum polarization due to quantum massive vector, scalar and spinor fields on the scalar sector of quasinormal modes in spherically symmetric charged black holes. The vacuum polarization from quantized fields produces a shift in the values of the quasinormal frequencies, and correspondingly the semiclassical system becomes a better oscillator with respect to the classical Reissner-Nordstrom black hole.