The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

The effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation of the old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and in demography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second part of the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The model is able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 and older. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of the social security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technological and demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would have increased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, as the latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policy can account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for the most of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

The effect of social security, health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.

Old-age benefits and retirement decisions of rural elderly in Brazil

I estimate the impact of social security benefits on retirement decisions of rural workers by studying changes in the roles governing social security in Brazil. I focus on a 1991 reform, which brought a reduction in the minimum eligibility age for males and females, a doubling of benefit values and the extension of benefits to non-heads of households. Because beneficiaries are not subject to means or retirement tests, I estimate apure income effect. I find that a reduction in the minimum eligibility age for old-age benefits was an important determinant in the reduction in labor supply of elderly rural workers in Brazil. Finally, I find that benefit take-up rates are larger among the better educated, but least-schooled workers show the largest labor supply responses to the reform.

The impact of social security reform on occupational and retirement behavior : a quantitative assessment for Brazil

Population ageing is a problem that countries will have to cope with within a few years. How would changes in the social security system affect individual behaviour? We develop a multi-sectoral life-cycle model with both retirement and occupational choices to evaluate what are the macroeconomic impacts of social security reforms. We calibrate the model to match 2011 Brazilian economy and perform a counterfactual exercise of the long-run impacts of a recently adopted reform. In 2013, the Brazilian government approximated the two segregated social security schemes, imposing a ceiling on public pensions. In the benchmark equilibrium, our modelling economy is able to reproduce the early retirement claiming, the agents' stationary distribution among sectors, as well as the social security deficit and the public job application decision. In the counterfactual exercise, we find a significant reduction of 55\% in the social security deficit, an increase of 1.94\% in capital-to-output ratio, with both output and capital growing, a delay in retirement claims of public workers and a modification in the structure of agents applying to the public sector job.

Numerical Experimental Comparison of Dam Break Flows with non-Newtonian Fluids

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

EVALUATION of HEAVY METAL AVAILABILITY IN CONTAMINATED SEDIMENTS FROM THE ILHA SOLTEIRA HYDROELECTRIC DAM on THE PARANA RIVER AT ILHA SOLTEIRA, SP, BRAZIL

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sediment grain size distribution and heavy metals determination in a dam on the Parana River at Ilha Solteira, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The fate of copepod populations in the Paranapanema River (São Paulo, Brazil), downstream from the Jurumirim dam

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Some particularities of dam rehabilitation projects

The number of dams, which need rehabilitation, is growing, not only in countries that have a long tradition in dam building and operation but,also in those regions where the infrastructure is still in full development. Though rehabilitation projects generally deal with problems that are common in dam engineering practice there are some peculiarities which are a characteristic of such projects and which must be duly taken into account to avoid unsuccess and/or unnecessary costs. Regular safety inspection is essential to forestall the development of structural, hydrological and operational unsafety. if need of major repair or overall rehabilitation of a dam becomes apparent design oft he rehabilitation project must be preceded by a comprehensive checkup of the structure and appurtenant works, as well as by an evaluation of its hydrological safety inclusive of all relevant environmental aspects. The availability of complete records on the clam's structural behaviour and on meteorological and hydrological data, as well as the knowledge of the materials properties of the existing structure are important for the successful design of a rehabilitation project. To this end the installation of monitoring devices in the existing structure may be necessary to generate representative data. While the criteria to be used in structural design should correspond to current standards, the definition of hydrological design criteria depends on considerations that vary widely from region to region or even from one country to another. Some basic hydrological safety requirements, however, are recommended for general acceptance. Dam rehabilitation projects demand very careful and detailed construction planning because of their dependence on river flow conditions, operational restrictions and, often, on procedures or limitations imposed to avoid harm to the environment. of utmost importance is the timely availability of the financial funds required to complete the project, in order to avoid delays which could result in structural or operational unsafety. Since every dam sooner or later will have to undergo major repair or updating of safety, rehabilitation may evolve to a speciality of dam engineering.

EFFECT OF EXERCISE DURING PREGNANCY AND DAM AGE ON MATERNAL BLOOD-CHEMISTRY AND FETAL GROWTH

In order to determine the effect of maternal exercise on maternal nutritional status and fetal growth, young (Y = 45-50 days old) Wistar rats were divided into 4 groups of 5 to 8 animals: control pregnant (CP), control non-pregnant (CNP), exercise-trained (swimming 1 h/day, 5 days/week, for 19 days) pregnant (TP) and exercise-trained non-pregnant (TNP). Four equivalent groups of adult rats (A - 90-100 days old) were also formed. Serum glucose, total protein, albumin, hematocrit and liver glycogen were determined in female rats and pups. There were no statistical differences in serum glucose, total protein and albumin levels, litter size ot birth weight among exercise-trained animals, controls and their respective pups. Hematocrit was significantly lower in pups of exercise-trained young rats than in all other groups (YCP = 38.6 +/- 3.0; YTP = 32.6 +/- 2.1; ACP = 39.0 +/- 2.5; ATP = 39.2 +/- 2.9%). Liver glycogen levels were lower in pregnant than in non-pregnant rats but similar in exercise-trained and control rats of the same age and physiological status (YCNP = 4.1 +/- 0.2; YCP = 2.7 +/- 0.9; YTNP = 4.9 +/- 0.8; YTP = 2.7 +/-0.4; ACNP = 6.1 +/- 0.6; ACP = 3.1 +/- 0.8; ATNP = 6.6 +/- 0.8; ATP = 2.2 +/- 0.9 mg/100 mg). We conclude that pups of adult female rats are spared from the effects of this kind of exercise training during pregnancy. on the other hand, it appears that maternal adaptations to exercise training in young rats are able to preserve only some aspects of pup metabolism.

Assessment and statistics of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants: Dam areas versus installed and firm power

The Brazilian relief, predominantly composed by small mountains and plateaus, contributed to formation of rivers with high amount of falls. With exception to North-eastern Brazil, the climate of this country are rainy, which contributes to maintain water flows high. These elements are essential to a high hydroelectric potential, contributing to the choice of hydroelectric power plants as the main technology of electricity generation in Brazil. Though this is a renewable source, whose utilized resource is free, dams must to be established which generates a high environmental and social impact. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact caused by these dams through the use of environmental indexes. These indexes are ratio formed by installed power with dam area of a hydro power plant, and ratio formed by firm power with this dam area. In this study, the greatest media values were found in South, Southeast, and Northeast regions respectively, and the smallest media values were found in North and Mid-West regions, respectively. The greatest encountered media indexes were also found in dams established in the 1950s. In the last six decades, the smallest indexes were registered by darns established in the 1980s. These indexes could be utilized as important instruments for environmental impact assessments, and could enable a dam to be established that depletes an ecosystem as less as possible.

The Canadian retirement income system

Includes bibliography