The Conditional Phase-type distribution: Graphical Models for Continuous Non-Normal Data:The Conditional Phase-type (C-Ph) distribution:

Conditional Gaussian (CG) distributions allow the inclusion of both discrete and continuous variables in a model assuming that the continuous variable is normally distributed. However, the CG distributions have proved to be unsuitable for survival data which tends to be highly skewed. A new method of analysis is required to take into account continuous variables which are not normally distributed. The aim of this paper is to introduce the more appropriate conditional phase-type (C-Ph) distribution for representing a continuous non-normal variable while also incorporating the causal information in the form of a Bayesian network.

Optimization models for a short sea fuel oil distribution problem

O transporte marítimo e o principal meio de transporte de mercadorias em todo o mundo. Combustíveis e produtos petrolíferos representam grande parte das mercadorias transportadas por via marítima. Sendo Cabo Verde um arquipelago o transporte por mar desempenha um papel de grande relevância na economia do país. Consideramos o problema da distribuicao de combustíveis em Cabo Verde, onde uma companhia e responsavel por coordenar a distribuicao de produtos petrolíferos com a gestão dos respetivos níveis armazenados em cada porto, de modo a satisfazer a procura dos varios produtos. O objetivo consiste em determinar políticas de distribuicão de combustíveis que minimizam o custo total de distribuiçao (transporte e operacões) enquanto os n íveis de armazenamento sao mantidos nos n íveis desejados. Por conveniencia, de acordo com o planeamento temporal, o prob¬lema e divido em dois sub-problemas interligados. Um de curto prazo e outro de medio prazo. Para o problema de curto prazo sao discutidos modelos matemáticos de programacao inteira mista, que consideram simultaneamente uma medicao temporal cont ínua e uma discreta de modo a modelar multiplas janelas temporais e taxas de consumo que variam diariamente. Os modelos sao fortalecidos com a inclusão de desigualdades validas. O problema e então resolvido usando um "software" comercial. Para o problema de medio prazo sao inicialmente discutidos e comparados varios modelos de programacao inteira mista para um horizonte temporal curto assumindo agora uma taxa de consumo constante, e sao introduzidas novas desigualdades validas. Com base no modelo escolhido sao compara¬das estrategias heurísticas que combinam três heur ísticas bem conhecidas: "Rolling Horizon", "Feasibility Pump" e "Local Branching", de modo a gerar boas soluçoes admissíveis para planeamentos com horizontes temporais de varios meses. Finalmente, de modo a lidar com situaçoes imprevistas, mas impor¬tantes no transporte marítimo, como as mas condicões meteorológicas e congestionamento dos portos, apresentamos um modelo estocastico para um problema de curto prazo, onde os tempos de viagens e os tempos de espera nos portos sao aleatórios. O problema e formulado como um modelo em duas etapas, onde na primeira etapa sao tomadas as decisões relativas as rotas do navio e quantidades a carregar e descarregar e na segunda etapa (designada por sub-problema) sao consideradas as decisoes (com recurso) relativas ao escalonamento das operacões. O problema e resolvido por um metodo de decomposto que usa um algoritmo eficiente para separar as desigualdades violadas no sub-problema.

Asymptotic Distribution of a Simple Linear Estimator for VARMA Models in Echelon Form

In this paper, we study the asymptotic distribution of a simple two-stage (Hannan-Rissanen-type) linear estimator for stationary invertible vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models in the echelon form representation. General conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are given. A consistent estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimator is also provided, so that tests and confidence intervals can easily be constructed.

Models to predict the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in Canada

Detailed knowledge of waterfowl abundance and distribution across Canada is lacking, which limits our ability to effectively conserve and manage their populations. We used 15 years of data from an aerial transect survey to model the abundance of 17 species or species groups of ducks within southern and boreal Canada. We included 78 climatic, hydrological, and landscape variables in Boosted Regression Tree models, allowing flexible response curves and multiway interactions among variables. We assessed predictive performance of the models using four metrics and calculated uncertainty as the coefficient of variation of predictions across 20 replicate models. Maps of predicted relative abundance were generated from resulting models, and they largely match spatial patterns evident in the transect data. We observed two main distribution patterns: a concentrated prairie-parkland distribution and a more dispersed pan-Canadian distribution. These patterns were congruent with the relative importance of predictor variables and model evaluation statistics among the two groups of distributions. Most species had a hydrological variable as the most important predictor, although the specific hydrological variable differed somewhat among species. In some cases, important variables had clear ecological interpretations, but in some instances, e.g., topographic roughness, they may simply reflect chance correlations between species distributions and environmental variables identified by the model-building process. Given the performance of our models, we suggest that the resulting prediction maps can be used in future research and to guide conservation activities, particularly within the bounds of the survey area.

Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

Measurement error models with a general class of error distribution

In general, the normal distribution is assumed for the surrogate of the true covariates in the classical error model. This paper considers a class of distributions, which includes the normal one, for the variables subject to error. An estimation approach yielding consistent estimators is developed and simulation studies reported.

Suitability of chlorine bulk decay models for planning and management of water distribution systems

Effective disinfection planning and management in large, complex water distribution systems requires an accurate network water quality model. This model should be based on reaction kinetics, which describes disinfectant loss from bulk water over time, within experimental error. Models in the literature were reviewed for their ability to meet this requirement in real networks. Essential features were identified as accuracy, simplicity, computational efficiency, and ability to describe consistently the effects of initial chlorine dose, temperature variation, and successive rechlorinations. A reaction scheme of two organic constituents reacting with free chlorine was found to be necessary and sufficient to provide the required features. Recent release of the multispecies extension (MSX) to EPANET and MWH Soft's H2OMap Water MSX network software enables users to implement this and other multiple-reactant bulk decay models in real system simulations.

Allocation of protective devices in distribution circuits using nonlinear programming models and genetic algorithms

The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution line models analysis for loss calculation within three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms

Three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms, as any tool for power systems analysis, require reliable impedances and models in order to obtain accurate results. Kron's reduction procedure, which embeds neutral wire influence into phase wires, has shown good results when three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms based on current summation method were used. However, Kron's reduction can harm reliabilities of some algorithms whose iterative processes need loss calculation (power summation method). In this work, three three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms based on power summation method, will be compared with a three-phase four-wire approach based on backward-forward technique and current summation. Two four-wire unbalanced medium-voltage distribution networks will be analyzed and results will be presented and discussed. © 2004 IEEE.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Are fertility estimates from retrospective data biased by maternal mortality?: an assessment based on parametric models of family size distribution

Includes bibliography

A Time-domain Harmonic Power-Flow Analysis in Electrical Energy Distribution Networks, Using Norton Models for Non-linear Loading

The purpose of this paper is to present the application of a three-phase harmonic propagation analysis time-domain tool, using the Norton model to approach the modeling of non-linear loads, making the harmonics currents flow more appropriate to the operation analysis and to the influence of mitigation elements analysis. This software makes it possible to obtain results closer to the real distribution network, considering voltages unbalances, currents imbalances and the application of mitigation elements for harmonic distortions. In this scenario, a real case study with network data and equipments connected to the network will be presented, as well as the modeling of non-linear loads based on real data obtained from some PCCs (Points of Common Coupling) of interests for a distribution company.

Models of the Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Marine Environment

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) is a group of chemicals that are toxic, undergo long-range transport and accumulate in biota. Due to their persistency the distribution and recirculation in the environment often continues for a long period of time. Thereby they appear virtually everywhere within the biosphere, and poses a toxic stress to living organisms. In this thesis, attempts are made to contribute to the understanding of factors that influence the distribution of POPs with focus on processes in the marine environment. The bioavailability and the spatial distribution are central topics for the environmental risk management of POPs. In order to study these topics, various field studies were undertaken. To determine the bioavailable fraction of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) the aqueous dissolved phase were sampled and analysed. In the same samples, we also measured how much of these POPs were associated with suspended particles. Different models, which predicted the phase distribution of these POPs, were then evaluated. It was found that important water characteristics, which influenced the solid-water phase distribution of POPs, were particulate organic matter (POM), particulate soot (PSC), and dissolved organic matter (DOM). The bioavailable dissolved POP-phase in the water was lower when these sorbing phases were present. Furthermore, sediments were sampled and the spatial distribution of the POPs was examined. The results showed that the concentration of PCDD/Fs, and PCNs were better described using PSC- than using POM-content of the sediment. In parallel with these field studies, we synthesized knowledge of the processes affecting the distribution of POPs in a multimedia mass balance model. This model predicted concentrations of PCDD/Fs throughout our study area, the Grenlandsfjords in Norway, within factors of ten. This makes the model capable to validate the effect of suitable remedial actions in order to decrease the exposure of these POPs to biota in the Grenlandsfjords which was the aim of the project. Also, to evaluate the influence of eutrophication on the marine occurrence PCB data from the US Musselwatch and Benthic Surveillance Programs are examined in this thesis. The dry weight based concentrations of PCB in bivalves were found to correlate positively to the organic matter content of nearby sediments, and organic matter based concentrations of PCB in sediments were negatively correlated to the organic matter content of the sediment.

Partial discharge in power distribution electrical systems: pulse propagation models and detection optimization

Investigation on impulsive signals, originated from Partial Discharge (PD) phenomena, represents an effective tool for preventing electric failures in High Voltage (HV) and Medium Voltage (MV) systems. The determination of both sensors and instruments bandwidths is the key to achieve meaningful measurements, that is to say, obtaining the maximum Signal-To-Noise Ratio (SNR). The optimum bandwidth depends on the characteristics of the system under test, which can be often represented as a transmission line characterized by signal attenuation and dispersion phenomena. It is therefore necessary to develop both models and techniques which can characterize accurately the PD propagation mechanisms in each system and work out the frequency characteristics of the PD pulses at detection point, in order to design proper sensors able to carry out PD measurement on-line with maximum SNR. Analytical models will be devised in order to predict PD propagation in MV apparatuses. Furthermore, simulation tools will be used where complex geometries make analytical models to be unfeasible. In particular, PD propagation in MV cables, transformers and switchgears will be investigated, taking into account both irradiated and conducted signals associated to PD events, in order to design proper sensors.