Explaining contradictory evidence regarding impacts of genetically modified crops in developing countries. Varietal performance of transgenic cotton in India

A study of the commercial growing of different varieties of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton compares the performance of growing official and unofficial hybrid varieties of Bt cotton and conventional (non-Bt) hybrids in Gujarat by 622 farmers. Results suggest that the official Bt varieties (MECH 12 and MECH 162) significantly outperform the unofficial varieties. However, unofficial, locally produced Bt hybrids can also perform significantly better than non-Bt hybrids, although second generation (F-2) Bt seed appears to have no yield advantage compared to non-Bt hybrids but can save on insecticide use. Although hybrid vigour is reduced, or even lost, with F-2 seed the Bt gene still confers some advantage. The F-2 seed is regarded as 'GM' by the farmers (and is sold as such), even though its yield performance is little better than the non-GM hybrids. The results help to explain why there is so much confusion arising from GM cotton release in India.

Isolating the 'farmer' effect as a component of the advantage of growing genetically modified varieties in developing countries: a Bt cotton case study from Jalgaon, India

The present paper explores the 'farmer' effect in economic advantages often claimed for Bt cotton varieties (those with the endotoxin gene from Bacillus thuringiensis conferring resistance to some insect pests) compared to non-Bt varieties. Critics claim that much of the yield advantage of Bt cotton could be due to the fact that farmers adopting the technology are in a better position to provide inputs and management and so much of any claimed Bt advantage is an artefact rather than reflecting a real advantage of the variety per se. The present paper provides an in-depth analysis of 63 non-adopting and 94 adopting households of Bt cotton in Jalgaon, Maharashtra State, India, spanning the seasons 2002 and 2003. Results suggest that Bt adopters are indeed different from non-adopters in a number of ways. Adopters appear to specialize more on cotton (at least in terms of the land area they devote to the crop), spend more money on irrigation and grow well-performing non-Bt varieties of cotton (Bunny). Taking gross margin as the basis for comparison, Bt plots had 2.5 times the gross margin of non-Bt plots in both seasons. If only adopters are considered then the gross margin advantage of Bt plots reduces to 1.6 times that of non-Bt plots. This is still a significant advantage and could well explain the popularity of Bt in Maharashtra. However, it is clear that great care needs to be taken with such comparative studies.

Concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights: Some implications for developing countries

This paper explores concentration levels in the ownership of intellectual property rights over plant varieties worldwide. An analysis of data for 30 UPOV member-countries shows a high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights for six major crops at the national level in the developed world. Much of this concentration has arisen owing to the rapid consolidation of the seed industry through mergers and acquisitions, especially in the 1990s. A high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights, in combination with recent efforts to strengthen plant variety protection regimes, is likely to have significant effects on the prospects for future innovation in plant breeding and the distribution of market power between companies. For developing countries, concentration in intellectual property right ownership may have important implications for the structure of domestic seed industries and access to protected varieties and associated plant breeding technologies. These implications for developing countries are likely to become apparent in the context of the rapid spread of plant variety protection and access legislation, emerging changes in the international exchange regime for plant material and liberalised investment policies permitting foreign investment in the seeds sector.

Concentration in ownership of plant variety rights: some implications for developing countries

This paper explores concentration levels in the ownership of intellectual property rights over plant varieties worldwide. An analysis of data for 30 UPOV member-countries shows a high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights for six major crops at the national level in the developed world. Much of this concentration has arisen owing to the rapid consolidation of the seed industry through mergers and acquisitions, especially in the 1990s. A high degree of concentration in the ownership of plant variety rights, in combination with recent efforts to strengthen plant variety protection regimes, is likely to have significant effects on the prospects for future innovation in plant breeding and the distribution of market power between companies. For developing countries, concentration in intellectual property right ownership may have important implications for the structure of domestic seed industries and access to protected varieties and associated plant breeding technologies. These implications for developing countries are likely to become apparent in the context of the rapid spread of plant variety protection and access legislation, emerging changes in the international exchange regime for plant material and liberalised investment policies permitting foreign investment in the seeds sector. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant variety protection in developing countries: A view from the private seed industry in India

Many developing countries are currently engaged in designing and implementing plant variety protection systems. Encouraging private investment in plant breeding is the key rationale for extending intellectual property rights to plant varieties. However, the design of plant variety protection systems in developing countries has been dominated by concerns regarding the inequities of a plant variety protection system, especially the imbalance in the reward structure between plant breeders and farmers. The private seed industry, a key stakeholder in plant variety protection, appears to be playing only a peripheral role in the design of the intellectual property rights regime. This paper explores the potential response of the private seed industry in India to plant variety protection legislation based on a survey of major plant breeding companies. The survey finds that the private seed industry in India is generally unenthusiastic about the legislation and plant variety protection is likely to have only a very limited impact on their research profile and expenditures on plant breeding. Measures designed to curb the 'excessive' profits of breeders, farmers' rights provisions and poor prospects for enforcement of rights are seen to be seriously diluting breeders' rights, leaving few incentives for innovation. If the fundamental objective of plant variety protection is to stimulate private investment in plant breeding, then developing countries need to seriously address the question of improving appropriability of returns from investment.

Potential economic impacts of terminator technologies: policy implications for developing countries

The terminator gene can render seeds sterile, so forcing farmers to purchase fresh seed every year. It is a technological solution to the problem of market failure that could increase the appropriability of R&D investment more effectively than intellectual property rights legislation or patents. This paper shows that appropriability should be more than tripled and that this leads to greater private R&D investment, which may be expected to double or triple. This would bring open-pollinating varieties into line with F1 hybrids, for which seed cannot be saved. In turn, the increased investment should raise yield increases to levels similar to those for hybrid crops. Thus, there are benefits to set against the possible ecological and environmental costs and the clear distributional and social consequences. The paper discusses the way the seed market is developing, the possible impacts, especially from a developing country viewpoint, and considers the policy changes that are needed.

Linking public issues with private troubles: panel studies in developing countries

Accompanying the call for increased evidence-based policy the developed world is implementing more longitudinal panel studies which periodically gather information about the same people over a number of years. Panel studies distinguish between transitory and persistent states (e.g. poverty, unemployment) and facilitate causal explanations of relationships between variables. However, they are complex and costly. A growing number of developing countries are now implementing or considering starting panel studies. The objectives of this paper are to identify challenges that arise in panel studies, and to give examples of how these have been addressed in resource-constrained environments. The main issues considered are: the development of a conceptual framework which links macro and micro contexts; sampling the cohort in a cost-effective way; tracking individuals; ethics and data management and analysis. Panel studies require long term funding, a stable institution and an acceptance that there will be limited value for money in terms of results from early stages, with greater benefits accumulating in the study's mature years. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.