New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis, 2nd edition

Now in its second edition, this book describes tools that are commonly used in transportation data analysis. The first part of the text provides statistical fundamentals while the second part presents continuous dependent variable models. With a focus on count and discrete dependent variable models, the third part features new chapters on mixed logit models, logistic regression, and ordered probability models. The last section provides additional coverage of Bayesian statistical modeling, including Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Data sets are available online to use with the modeling techniques discussed.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Railway junction traffic control by heuristic methods

Traffic conflicts at railway junctions are very conmon, particularly on congested rail lines. While safe passage through the junction is well maintained by the signalling and interlocking systems, minimising the delays imposed on the trains by assigning the right-of-way sequence sensibly is a bonus to the quality of service. A deterministic method has been adopted to resolve the conflict, with the objective of minimising the total weighted delay. However, the computational demand remains significant. The applications of different heuristic methods to tackle this problem are reviewed and explored, elaborating their feasibility in various aspects and comparing their relative merits for further studies. As most heuristic methods do not guarantee a global optimum, this study focuses on the trade-off between computation time and optimality of the resolution.

Wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods for complex process models

Many industrial processes and systems can be modelled mathematically by a set of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Finding a solution to such a PDF model is essential for system design, simulation, and process control purpose. However, major difficulties appear when solving PDEs with singularity. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference, finite element, and polynomial based orthogonal collocation, not only have limitations to fully capture the process dynamics but also demand enormous computation power due to the large number of elements or mesh points for accommodation of sharp variations. To tackle this challenging problem, wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have been recently developed with successful applications to a fixedbed adsorption column model. Our investigation has shown that recent advances in wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have the potential to be adopted for solving more complicated dynamic system models. This chapter will highlight the successful applications of these new methods in solving complex models of simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic processes. A SMB process is a distributed parameter system and can be mathematically described by a set of partial/ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations. These equations are highly coupled; experience wave propagations with steep front, and require significant numerical effort to solve. To demonstrate the numerical computing power of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods, a single column chromatographic process modelled by a Transport-Dispersive-Equilibrium linear model is investigated first. Numerical solutions from the upwind-1 finite difference, wavelet-collocation, and high resolution methods are evaluated by quantitative comparisons with the analytical solution for a range of Peclet numbers. After that, the advantages of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are further demonstrated through applications to a dynamic SMB model for an enantiomers separation process. This research has revealed that for a PDE system with a low Peclet number, all existing numerical methods work well, but the upwind finite difference method consumes the most time for the same degree of accuracy of the numerical solution. The high resolution method provides an accurate numerical solution for a PDE system with a medium Peclet number. The wavelet collocation method is capable of catching up steep changes in the solution, and thus can be used for solving PDE models with high singularity. For the complex SMB system models under consideration, both the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are good candidates in terms of computation demand and prediction accuracy on the steep front. The high resolution methods have shown better stability in achieving steady state in the specific case studied in this Chapter.

Tracking employees’ twists and turns : a mixed methods approach to assessing change in the psychological contract

The psychological contract has emerged over the past 60 years as a key analytical device for both academics and practitioners to conceptualise and explain the employment relationship. However, despite the recognised import of this field, some authors suggest it has fallen into a ‘methodological rut’ and is neglecting to empirically assess basic theoretical tenets of the concept – such as the temporal and individualised, subjective nature of the construct. This paper describes the research design of a longitudinal, mixed methods study to explore development and change in the psychological contract and outline how the use of individual growth modelling can be a powerful tool in analysing the type of quantitative data collected. Finally, by briefly outlining the benefits of this approach, the paper seeks to offer an alternative methodology to explore the dynamic and intra-individual processes within the psychological contract domain.

Improving governance : practical methods and an analytic framework for the enhancement of democracy

Seven endemic governance problems are shown to be currently present in governments around the globe and at any level of government as well (for example municipal, federal). These problems have their roots traced back through more than two thousand years of political, specifically ‘democratic’, history. The evidence shows that accountability, transparency, corruption, representation, campaigning methods, constitutionalism and long-term goals were problematic for the ancient Athenians as well as modern international democratisation efforts encompassing every major global region. Why then, given the extended time period humans have had to deal with these problems, are they still present? At least part of the answer to this question is that philosophers, academics and NGOs as well as MNOs have only approached these endemic problems in a piecemeal manner with a skewed perspective on democracy. Their works have also been subject to the ebbs and flows of human history which essentially started and stopped periods of thinking. In order to approach the investigation of endemic problems in relation to democracy (as the overall quest of this thesis was to generate prescriptive results for the improvement of democratic government), it was necessary to delineate what exactly is being written about when using the term ‘democracy’. It is common knowledge that democracy has no one specific definition or practice, even though scholars and philosophers have been attempting to create a definition for generations. What is currently evident, is that scholars are not approaching democracy in an overly simplified manner (that is, it is government for the people, by the people) but, rather, are seeking the commonalities that democracies share, in other words, those items which are common to all things democratic. Following that specific line of investigation, the major practiced and theoretical versions of democracy were thematically analysed. After that, their themes were collapsed into larger categories, at which point the larger categories were comparatively analysed with the practiced and theoretical versions of democracy. Four democratic ‘particles’ (selecting officials, law, equality and communication) were seen to be present in all practiced and theoretical democratic styles. The democratic particles fused with a unique investigative perspective and in-depth political study created a solid conceptualisation of democracy. As such, it is argued that democracy is an ever-present element of any state government, ‘democratic’ or not, and the particles are the bodies which comprise the democratic element. Frequency- and proximity-based analyses showed that democratic particles are related to endemic problems in international democratisation discourse. The linkages between democratic particles and endemic problems were also evident during the thematic analysis as well historical review. This ultimately led to the viewpoint that if endemic problems are mitigated the act may improve democratic particles which might strengthen the element of democracy in the governing apparatus of any state. Such may actively minimise or wholly displace inefficient forms of government, leading to a government specifically tailored to the population it orders. Once the theoretical and empirical goals were attained, this thesis provided some prescriptive measures which government, civil society, academics, professionals and/or active citizens can use to mitigate endemic problems (in any country and at any level of government) so as to improve the human condition via better democratic government.

Evaluating Two Mass Screening Methods for Tungro Disease Resistance

Tungro is one of the most destructive viral diseases of rice in South and Southeast Asia. It is associated with two viruses---rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) ,and rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV) (Hibino et al 1978). Both viruses are transmitted by the green leafhopper (GLH) Nephotettix virescens (Ling 1979), However, prior acquisition of RTSV is required for Ihe transmission of RTBV alone (Hibino 1983). Plants infected with both viruses show severe stunting and yellowing. Those infected with RTBV alone show mild stunting but no leaf discoloration whereas those infected with RTSV alone do not show any apparent symptoms (Hibino el al 1978). Since the late 1960s, tungro has been mainly managed through varietal resistance (Khush 1989). The instability of resistant varieties in the field (Dahal et .a1 1990) led to a reexamination of the nature of the incorporated sources of resistance and to the adoption of more precise and more accurate screening methods.

The evaluation of qualitative methods selection in the field of design and emotion

The aim of this paper is to aid researchers in selecting appropriate qualitative methods in order to develop and improve future studies in the field of emotional design. These include observations, think-aloud protocols, questionnaires, diaries and interviews. Based on the authors’ experiences, it is proposed that the methods under review can be successfully used for collecting data on emotional responses to evaluate user product relationships. This paper reviews the methods; discusses the suitability, advantages and challenges in relation to design and emotion studies. Furthermore, the paper outlines the potential impact of technology on the application of these methods, discusses the implications of these methods for emotion research and concludes with recommendations for future work in this area.

Meshless TL and UL approaches for large deformation analysis

To accurately and effectively simulate large deformation is one of the major challenges in numerical modeling of metal forming. In this paper, an adaptive local meshless formulation based on the meshless shape functions and the local weak-form is developed for the large deformation analysis. Total Lagrangian (TL) and the Updated Lagrangian (UL) approaches are used and thoroughly compared each other in computational efficiency and accuracy. It has been found that the developed meshless technique provides a superior performance to the conventional FEM in dealing with large deformation problems for metal forming. In addition, the TL has better computational efficiency than the UL. However, the adaptive analysis is much more efficient using the UL approach than using in the TL approach.

Measuring falls events in acute hospitals-A comparison of three reporting methods to identify missing data in the hospital reporting system

OBJECTIVES: To compare three different methods of falls reporting and examine the characteristics of the data missing from the hospital incident reporting system. DESIGN: Fourteen-month prospective observational study nested within a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Rehabilitation, stroke, medical, surgical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Fallers (n5153) who were part of a larger trial (1,206 participants, mean age 75.1 � 11.0). MEASUREMENTS: Three falls events reporting measures: participants’ self-report of fall events, fall events reported in participants’ case notes, and falls events reported through the hospital reporting systems. RESULTS: The three reporting systems identified 245 falls events in total. Participants’ case notes captured 226 (92.2%) falls events, hospital incident reporting systems captured 185 (75.5%) falls events, and participant selfreport captured 147 (60.2%) falls events. Falls events were significantly less likely to be recorded in hospital reporting systems when a participant sustained a subsequent fall, (P5.01) or when the fall occurred in the morning shift (P5.01) or afternoon shift (P5.01). CONCLUSION: Falls data missing from hospital incident report systems are not missing completely at random and therefore will introduce bias in some analyses if the factor investigated is related to whether the data ismissing.Multimodal approaches to collecting falls data are preferable to relying on a single source alone.

Using routinely collected hospital data for child maltreatment surveillance : issues, methods and patterns

Background: International data on child maltreatment are largely derived from child protection agencies, and predominantly report only substantiated cases of child maltreatment. This approach underestimates the incidence of maltreatment and makes inter-jurisdictional comparisons difficult. There has been a growing recognition of the importance of health professionals in identifying, documenting and reporting suspected child maltreatment. This study aimed to describe the issues around case identification using coded morbidity data, outline methods for selecting and grouping relevant codes, and illustrate patterns of maltreatment identified. Methods: A comprehensive review of the ICD-10-AM classification system was undertaken, including review of index terms, a free text search of tabular volumes, and a review of coding standards pertaining to child maltreatment coding. Identified codes were further categorised into maltreatment types including physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional or psychological abuse, and neglect. Using these code groupings, one year of Australian hospitalisation data for children under 18 years of age was examined to quantify the proportion of patients identified and to explore the characteristics of cases assigned maltreatment-related codes. Results: Less than 0.5% of children hospitalised in Australia between 2005 and 2006 had a maltreatment code assigned, almost 4% of children with a principal diagnosis of a mental and behavioural disorder and over 1% of children with an injury or poisoning as the principal diagnosis had a maltreatment code assigned. The patterns of children assigned with definitive T74 codes varied by sex and age group. For males selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, physical abuse was most commonly coded (62.6% of maltreatment cases) while for females selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, sexual abuse was the most commonly assigned form of maltreatment (52.9% of maltreatment cases). Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that hospital data could provide valuable information for routine monitoring and surveillance of child maltreatment, even in the absence of population-based linked data sources. With national and international calls for a public health response to child maltreatment, better understanding of, investment in and utilisation of our core national routinely collected data sources will enhance the evidence-base needed to support an appropriate response to children at risk.

Comparing cost uplift in infrastructure delivery methods : a case based approach

The alliance project delivery method is used for approximately one third of all Australian government infrastructure projects representing $8-$10 billion per annum. Despite its widespread use, little is known about the differences between estimated project cost and actual cost over the project lifecycle. This paper presents the findings of research into 14 Australian government alliance case studies investigating the observed cost uplift over each project’s lifecycle. I find that significant cost uplift is likely and that this uplift is greater than that afflicting traditional delivery methods. Furthermore, most of the cost uplift occurs at a different place in the project lifecycle, namely between Business Case and Contractual Commitment.

Methods to achieve net environmental gain in the course of development in Queensland

To achieve best environmental management practice in Queensland, effort needs to be extended into the private sector. A Regional Landscape Strategy compiled for any substantial new proposal must identify the most promising technique(s) (from an available tool kit of 13) by which a developer (of any type) is more likely to sustain on-site resources while assisting government deliver its future plans in any region of the State. Offsetting may prove to be one of the most effective of these tools. However, policy must address‘offset land mitigation’, whereby the necessary financial incentives are introduced. Practicable methods by which offset sites can be selected, and measurement of their consequent environmental benefit, have now been devised and tested to assist this process.