Credit ratings and government bonds evidence before, during and after the european debt crisis

Neste projeto, investigamos se as agências de rating e as taxas de juro de longo prazo da dívida soberana tiveram uma influência recíproca antes, durante e após a crise da dívida soberana Europeia. Esta análise é realizada, estimando a relação existente entre os ratings da dívida soberana ou taxas de juro e factores macroeconomicos e estruturais, através de uma diferente aplicação de metodologias utilizadas para este efeito. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, no período da crise soberana, os ratings e as taxas de juros tiveram um mútuo impacto, sugerindo que as descidas dos ratings podem ter conduzido a profecias auto-realizáveis, levando países relativamente estáveis a um eventual incumprimento

Delays in stabilization or in reforms? The debt crisis

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s' debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long-run approach. Revising this long-run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade-policy reforms, with a model in which terms-of-trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.

The debt crisis: a re-appraisal

The 1980s' debt crisis is a landmark in developing economies' growth and stabilization. According to the most quoted empirical articles, external shocks and vicissitudes gave rise to crisis just because of delays in stabilization policies, engendered by internal conflicts and institutional immaturity. I review some of these papers, and find out some problems - in the measurement of shocks and foreign indebtedness, namely - whose corrections lead to opposite results: external shocks and foreign indebtedness explain that crisis regardless of domestic policies. At the same time, the strong correlation of income distribution to terms of trade changes and foreign indebtedness suggest that inequality may have contributed differently to that crisis: either through an economic channel, or through a political channel based on delays in reforms.

Política cambiaria y los procesos de renegociación de la deuda externa = Exchange policies and the process of renegotiation

Incluye Bibliografía

World inflation and foreign debt: the case of the improper deflator

Includes bibliography

The real cost of the external debt for the creditor and for the debtor

Includes bibliography

Debt financing rollercoaster: Latin American and Caribbean access to international bond markets since the debt crisis, 1982-2012

Includes bibliography

Ajuste del balance de pagos, política crediticia y control del endeudamiento externo = Balance-of-payments adjustment, credit policy and control of the external debt

Incluye Bibliografía

Debt for nature: a swap whose time has gone?

Includes bibliography

Finding solutions to the debt problems of developing countries: report of the Executive Committee on Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations (New York, 20 May 1999)

Includes bibliography

Bond markets for Latin American debt in the 1990s

Includes bibliography

Transnational bank behaviour and the international debt crisis

Includes bibliography

An overview on debt moratoria in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Introduction: internal debt, external debt and economic transformation

Presenta la introduccion a los temas sobre la deuda interna, la deuda externa, y el proceso de ajuste y transformacion economica tratados en este numero de la Revista de la CEPAL, que si bien tienen caracteristicas especiales que los distinguen unos de otros, tambien muestran relaciones reciprocas importantes que es necesario examinar.

Another view of the Latin American crisis: domestic debt

Includes bibliography