The placebo effect: measurement by multiple methods

This thesis investigated the relationship of explicit (self-report), implicit (IAT) and physiological variables to the placebo effect. The thesis consisted of three main parts. The first collected background data and developed models for two constructs (Optimism and Mindfulness) associated with the placebo effect and implicit attitudes, respectively. The second part of the thesis consisted of the development of an explicit measure of treatment expectancies, and the development of two IATs, one for Optimism and the other for Treatment Credibility. The final portion of the thesis was an experimental study (N=111) which tested these new measures in a sample of healthy volunteers. The primary hypothesis of the thesis, that there would be a relationship between the placebo effect and implicit measures, was not supported. Major findings include an effect of semantic priming on placebo response mediated by condition (Deceptive versus Open Placebo), an unexpected negative relationship between Optimism and self-reported Health, and a physiological relationship between pain ratings and GSR data, which was also mediated by Condition in the experiment. A complete record of the code and data for this thesis can be found at https://github.com/richiemorrisroe/Thesis

Justifying jihad: US politics, propaganda and the Afghan mujahedeen

Hard-line anti-communists in the United States recognised the potential for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 to embroil their super-power rival in a ‘Vietnam-like quagmire.’ Their covert operation to arm the mujahedeen is well documented. This dissertation argues that propaganda and public diplomacy were powerful and essential instruments of this campaign. It examines the protagonists of this strategy, their policies, initiatives and programmes offering a comprehensive analysis heretofore absent. It stretches from the dying days of the Carter administration when Zbigniew Brzezinski saw the ‘opportunity’ presented by the invasion to the Soviet’s withdrawal in 1989. The aim of these information strategies was to damage Soviet credibility and enhance that of the US, considered under threat from growing ‘moral equivalence’ amongst international publics. The conflict could help the US regain strategic advantage in South Asia undermined by the ‘loss’ of Iran. The Reagan administration used it to justify the projection of US military might that it believed was eviscerated under Carter and emasculated by the lingering legacy of Vietnam. The research engages with source material from the Reagan Presidential Library, the United States Information Agency archives and the Library of Congress as well as a number of online archives. The material is multi-archival and multi-media including documentaries, booklets, press conferences, summit programmes and news-clips as well as national security policy documents and contemporaneous media commentary. It concludes that propaganda and public diplomacy were integral to the Reagan administration and other mujahedeen supporters’ determination to challenge the USSR. It finds that the conflict was used to justify military rearmament, further strategic aims and reassert US power. These Cold War machinations had a considerable impact on the course of the conflict and undermined efforts at resolution and reconciliation with profound implications for the future stability of Afghanistan and the world.

Explanatory Model for the Use of Traditional Medicines in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Introduction: Traditional medicines are one of the most important means of achieving total health care coverage globally, and their importance in Tanzania extends beyond the impoverished rural areas. Their use remains high even in urban settings among the educated middle and upper classes. They are a critical component healthcare in Tanzania, but they also can have harmful side effects. Therefore we sought to understand the decision-making and reasoning processes by building an explanatory model for the use of traditional medicines in Tanzania.

Methods: We conducted a mixed-methods study between December 2013 and June 2014 in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Using purposive sampling methods, we conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews of key informants, and the qualitative data were analyzed using an inductive Framework Method. A structured survey was created, piloted, and then administered it to a random sample of adults. We reported upon the reliability and validity of the structured survey, and we used triangulation from multiple sources to synthesize the qualitative and quantitative data.

Results: A total of five FGDs composed of 59 participants and 27 in-depth interviews were conducted in total. 16 of the in-depth interviews were with self-described traditional practitioners or herbal vendors. We identified five major thematic categories that relate to the decision to use traditional medicines in Kilimanjaro: healthcare delivery, disease understanding, credibility of the traditional practices, health status, and strong cultural beliefs.

A total of 473 participants (24.1% male) completed the structured survey. The most common reasons for taking traditional medicines were that they are more affordable (14%, 12.0-16.0), failure of hospital medicines (13%, 11.1-15.0), they work better (12%, 10.7-14.4), they are easier

to obtain (11%, 9.48-13.1), they are found naturally or free (8%, 6.56-9.68), hospital medicines have too many chemical (8%, 6.33-9.40), and they have fewer side effects (8%, 6.25-9.30). The most common uses of traditional medicines were for symptomatic conditions (42%), chronic diseases (14%), reproductive problems (11%), and malaria and febrile illnesses (10%). Participants currently taking hospital medicines for chronic conditions were nearly twice as likely to report traditional medicines usage in the past year (RR 1.97, p=0.05).

Conclusions: We built broad explanatory model for the use of traditional medicines in Kilimanjaro. The use of traditional medicines is not limited to rural or low socioeconomic populations and concurrent use of traditional medicines and biomedicine is high with frequent ethnomedical doctor shopping. Our model provides a working framework for understanding the complex interactions between biomedicine and traditional medicine. Future disease management and treatment programs will benefit from this understanding, and it can lead to synergistic policies with more effective implementation.

'Marginal gothic': mediating the monstrous in British romanticism

In this paper I look at texts from the Romantic Period which strategically employ elements of the Gothic genre in what I describe as a `marginal` relationship with the Gothic canon. My intention is both to explore the way the boundaries of the genre might be extended, and to cast fresh light on some of the texts discussed, specifically in relation to the ways in which the `monstrous` is perceived and portrayed as villainy. In the first half of the paper, using Burke’s Philosophical Enquiry on the Sublime and the Beautiful as a starting point, I consider Burke’s Reflections on the Revolution in France, Godwin’s Caleb Williams, Radcliffe’s The Italian, and Blake’s The Marriage of Heaven and Hell as all in various ways examples of `marginal Gothic` that present evil doing as monstrous aberrations, also noting the contemporary reception of Beckford’s Vathek, praised in 1786 for its `accuracy and credibility`. In addition, I suggest that Wordsworth’s `Tintern Abbey` and Book VI of The Prelude provide evidence of marginal, but significant, Gothic influence that references Radcliffe’s and Burke’s explorations of a terror of the unknown. In the second half of the paper I focus on Scott’s Guy Mannering, or The Astrologer (1815) as an important example of a `marginal` Gothic novel. Scott’s reference to Vathek at a key point in his plot suggests that he had read Beckford’s novel as entirely `Gothic`. This discussion incorporates a comparison between Mannering’s youthful enthusiasm for astrological divination, and themes to be found in Shelley’s Frankenstein, notably with respect to the nature of Victor Frankenstein’s response to `old` and `new` science and medicine, and to the creation and control of Gothic monstrosity. In these and in other instances, it will be argued that the `marginal Gothic` of Scott’s novel may be read as a precursor to Shelley’s work. [From the Author]

Can nuclear power plants be built in Britain without public subsidies and guarantees?

This report examines the credibility of the claim by the UK government that nuclear power plants can be built in the UK without public subsidies and guarantees

Amplifying applied game development and uptake

The established (digital) leisure game industry is historically one dominated by large international hardware vendors (e.g. Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo), major publishers and supported by a complex network of development studios, distributors and retailers. New modes of digital distribution and development practice are challenging this business model and the leisure games industry landscape is one experiencing rapid change. The established (digital) leisure games industry, at least anecdotally, appears reluctant to participate actively in the applied games sector (Stewart et al., 2013). There are a number of potential explanations as to why this may indeed be the case including ; A concentration on large-scale consolidation of their (proprietary) platforms, content, entertainment brand and credibility which arguably could be weakened by association with the conflicting notion of purposefulness (in applied games) in market niches without clear business models or quantifiable returns on investment. In contrast, the applied games industry exhibits the characteristics of an emerging, immature industry namely: weak interconnectedness, limited knowledge exchange, an absence of harmonising standards, limited specialisations, limited division of labour and arguably insufficient evidence of the products efficacies (Stewart et al., 2013; Garcia Sanchez, 2013) and could, arguably, be characterised as a dysfunctional market. To test these assertions the Realising an Applied Gaming Ecosystem (RAGE) project will develop a number of self contained gaming assets to be actively employed in the creation of a number of applied games to be implemented and evaluated as regional pilots across a variety of European educational, training and vocational contexts. RAGE is a European Commission Horizon 2020 project with twenty (pan European) partners from industry, research and education with the aim of developing, transforming and enriching advanced technologies from the leisure games industry into self-contained gaming assets (i.e. solutions showing economic value potential) that could support a variety of stakeholders including teachers, students, and, significantly, game studios interested in developing applied games. RAGE will provide these assets together with a large quantity of high-quality knowledge resources through a self-sustainable Ecosystem, a social space that connects research, the gaming industries, intermediaries, education providers, policy makers and end-users in order to stimulate the development and application of applied games in educational, training and vocational contexts. The authors identify barriers (real and perceived) and opportunities facing stakeholders in engaging, exploring new emergent business models ,developing, establishing and sustaining an applied gaming eco system in Europe.

Some thoughts on Juan Antonio Ramírez´s iconologic-paranoid method for the study of Dali´s works

In 1990, Juan Antonio Ramírez made known his iconological paranoiac method to the academic world. It is a system devised to study Dalí´s work, born of happy matrimony between the catalonian artist´s critical paranoiac method and the first iconographic school of Warburg and Panofsky. What, at first sight, seemed to be an extravagant methodology with little academic credibility, turned out to be, by going forward in time, an effective research method when analyzing Dali´s initial works. It is no wonder that, at the beginning of XXI century, this hybridization between Dalí´s and Panofsky’s methods, were regarded as a strange and nonsensical idea. Nevertheless, twenty years after, blatant examples have been noted, which endorse the advantages of this new system for “iconographic” study. As usual, this new contribution by Juan Antonio Ramirez to art history methodology is called upon to have a successful future survival, in forthcoming generations. This article, attempts to analyze this method, inquiring into the validity, effectiveness and practical utility.

China's Sovereign Wealth Funds: Problem or Panacea?

China’s impressive economic growth has led to the accumulation of massive financial assets. The emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), as a governmental investment device for its excessive foreign reserves, symbolizes a major rebalancing of economic power. With its investment portfolios drastically diversified for well-established financial institutions as well as some strategic sectors, a seminal debate seems centered on whether China’s SWFs are in furtherance of purely commercial or geopolitically strategic purposes. Under the sophisticated hard laws associated with international initiatives, it is unlikely that the SWFs-related investment would distort the global financial system, and genuinely threaten national security, which assumption may only exist at a hypothetical level. The potential protectionism would inevitably retard the world economy’s recovery, were it not to be proportionately addressed. A most significant necessity appears to be to strike a proportionate balance between sustaining the credibility of open investment environment and efficiently minimizing implications of SWFs political arenas.

Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

Evaluation of Four Designed Virtual Agent Personalities

Convincing conversational agents require a coherent set of behavioral responses that can be interpreted by a human observer as indicative of a personality. This paper discusses the continued development and subsequent evaluation of virtual agents based on sound psychological principles. We use Eysenck's theoretical basis to explain aspects of the characterization of our agents, and we describe an architecture where personality affects the agent's global behavior quality as well as their back-channel productions. Drawing on psychological research, we evaluate perception of our agents' personalities and credibility by human viewers (N = 187). Our results suggest that we succeeded in validating theoretically grounded indicators of personality in our virtual agents, and that it is feasible to place our characters on Eysenck's scales. A key finding is that the presence of behavioral characteristics reinforces the prescribed personality profiles that are already emerging from the still images. Our long-term goal is to enhance agents' ability to sustain realistic interaction with human users, and we discuss how this preliminary work may be further developed to include more systematic variation of Eysenck's personality scales. © 2012 IEEE.


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Specular resentment : San-Antonio, Céline and the use of proletarian rhetoric in literary criticism

The charge of »Ressentiment« can in today's world – less from traditionally conservative quarters than from the neo-positivist discourses of particular forms of liberalism – be used to undermine the argumentative credibility of political opponents, dissidents and those who call for greater »justice«. The essays in this volume draw on the broad spectrum of cultural discourse on »Ressentiment«, both in historical and contemporary contexts. Starting with its conceptual genesis, the essays also show contemporary nuances of »Ressentiment« as well as its influence on aesthetic and literary discourse in the 20th century.

Energy: lessons from devolution

Geraint Ellis and Richard Cowell explain the findings of the ‘Delivering renewable energy under devolution’ project, including some reasons for Scotland’s lead.

The UK has seen massive increases in renewable energy since 1998, with installed capacity growing from 2,600 MW to 12,300 MW in 2011. This has coincided with devolution and it is within Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales that the greatest increases have been seen.

As devolved administrations now host half of the UK’s renewable energy capacity, their policies are critical to achieving the broader UK targets. This also provides a fascinating insight into what sort of approach works best, and why. This has been the focus of a two-year study, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, involving universities from across the UK, which indicates that Scotland is leading the way on renewable energy.

All devolved governments have offered significant support to renewable energy but have different degrees of powers in relation to energy. Scotland’s success seems to be based on the centrality of energy issues to current political aspirations, particularly the SNP, but also has cross-party support. The research suggests that the consensus on the importance of renewable energy amongst élite interests in Scotland helps to explain why Scottish governments have been empowered and enabled to make robust use of the powers available.

As it has achieved successful growth in the sector, this too helps cultivate credibility among key business interests and gives increased leverage to its position in policy discussions with the UK Government. Scotland has been more consistent over time in presenting the expansion of renewable energy as a national economic agenda, rather than just an environmental or rural development agenda. The availability of larger, windy, but relatively less contested sites for onshore wind in Scotland has meant that more projects went through central consenting procedures rather than local planning authorities. Its enhanced support for wave and tidal power technologies is also notable. These political conditions have been harder to find in the rest of the UK, making progress a little more uncertain.

Northern Ireland has used its powers (which are more extensive than Scotland’s) to facilitate small-scale renewables and bio-fuel processes, with its liberalised planning regime offering an initial boost to expanding capacity.

This has contrasted with the position in Wales, which has least control over energy but the Welsh Government has adopted a more innovative approach to strategic spatial zoning; this appears to have pulled in a larger volume of onshore wind development interest than could be expected in a comparable region of England. A downside of the Welsh approach appears to be the fact that the concentration of these wind projects in these zones has triggered public opposition and political conflict.

It therefore appears that the powers available to the devolved governments do not seem to determine which country has been able to make greatest headway, with broader political commitments being more significant. Despite this, the research does not conclude that the actions and activities undertaken by the devolved governments are necessarily the most important factors in shaping the development of renewable energy in the UK. This is because devolution is still a relatively new dimension of energy governance in the UK and decisions affecting key drivers for renewable energy investment are still made mainly in Westminster, with the Treasury exercising close budgetary control. In all areas of the UK, grid capacity expansion remains slow to achieve. The major growth in offshore wind to date has been driven mainly by Westminster and cross-UK bodies with the most significant capacity growth being in English territorial waters.

Changing shape and shifting boundaries - the media portrayal of probation in Ireland

Literature on the media representation of probation highlights that probation as a ‘brand’ and concept is poorly understood and lacks public visibility. This has implications for its legitimacy and credibility. In this article we explore probation’s visibility in one country, the Republic of Ireland, through a critical analysis of print media representations of probationover a 12-year period (2001 to 2012). While our study finds that the majority of the coverage of probation was either positive or neutral in tone, we note a recent shift towards a more negative tone that we argue is reflective of the changing shape of the penal-probation boundaries. These changes are linked to resourcing of the criminal justice system and have implications for the public perception of probation.

Recruiting schools, adolescents and parents to a sexual-health trial: experiences, challenges and lessons learned from the Jack Trial

Background
Recruitment to school-based randomised trials is challenging; even more so when the focus of the study is a sensitive issue such as sexual health. The Jack Feasibility Trial aims to determine the facilitators and barriers to recruitment and retention to a school-based sexual health trial and identify optimal multi-level strategies for a full trial.
Method
The Jack Trial is an NIHR-funded feasibility study of a film-based sexual health intervention, recruiting over 800 adolescents from 8 post-primary schools in Northern Ireland. In order to examine the feasibility of piloted recruitment and retention methods and assess acceptability of participation across the range of schools and individuals approached, we analysed qualitative data from triangulated sources including a parents’ survey and semi-structured interviews with principals, vice-principals, teachers and parents recruited to the study.
Results
With reference to Social Learning Theory, we identified a number of individual, behavioural and environmental level factors which influenced recruitment and retention. Commonly identified facilitators included the perceived relevance and potential benefit of the intervention to adolescents, the credibility of the organisation running the study, support offered by trial staff, and financial incentives. Key barriers were prior commitment to other research, lack of time and resources, and perceptions that the intervention was incompatible with adolescent needs or school ethos.
Conclusion
This study highlights pertinent general and trial-specific facilitators and barriers to recruitment to a sexual health trial in a school setting, which will prove useful for successful conduct of future trials with schools, adolescents and parents.

COS-STAR: a reporting guideline for studies developing core outcome sets (protocol)

BACKGROUND: Core outcome sets can increase the efficiency and value of research and, as a result, there are an increasing number of studies looking to develop core outcome sets (COS). However, the credibility of a COS depends on both the use of sound methodology in its development and clear and transparent reporting of the processes adopted. To date there is no reporting guideline for reporting COS studies. The aim of this programme of research is to develop a reporting guideline for studies developing COS and to highlight some of the important methodological considerations in the process.

METHODS/DESIGN: The study will include a reporting guideline item generation stage which will then be used in a Delphi study. The Delphi study is anticipated to include two rounds. The first round will ask stakeholders to score the items listed and to add any new items they think are relevant. In the second round of the process, participants will be shown the distribution of scores for all stakeholder groups separately and asked to re-score. A final consensus meeting will be held with an expert panel and stakeholder representatives to review the guideline item list. Following the consensus meeting, a reporting guideline will be drafted and review and testing will be undertaken until the guideline is finalised. The final outcome will be the COS-STAR (Core Outcome Set-STAndards for Reporting) guideline for studies developing COS and a supporting explanatory document.

DISCUSSION: To assess the credibility and usefulness of a COS, readers of a COS development report need complete, clear and transparent information on its methodology and proposed core set of outcomes. The COS-STAR guideline will potentially benefit all stakeholders in COS development: COS developers, COS users, e.g. trialists and systematic reviewers, journal editors, policy-makers and patient groups.