Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Knitted images : drawing patterns

This Arts Based Education Research (Eisner 2008) work provides potent opportunity to consider different problems and challenges that impact on the progress of research (art as data making) and the theories being explored. It provides opportunity to transport ideas across between research activity, and teaching practices...

Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov methods with GPU acceleration for computing nonlinear ship wave patterns

The nonlinear problem of steady free-surface flow past a submerged source is considered as a case study for three-dimensional ship wave problems. Of particular interest is the distinctive wedge-shaped wave pattern that forms on the surface of the fluid. By reformulating the governing equations with a standard boundary-integral method, we derive a system of nonlinear algebraic equations that enforce a singular integro-differential equation at each midpoint on a two-dimensional mesh. Our contribution is to solve the system of equations with a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method together with a banded preconditioner that is carefully constructed with entries taken from the Jacobian of the linearised problem. Further, we are able to utilise graphics processing unit acceleration to significantly increase the grid refinement and decrease the run-time of our solutions in comparison to schemes that are presently employed in the literature. Our approach provides opportunities to explore the nonlinear features of three-dimensional ship wave patterns, such as the shape of steep waves close to their limiting configuration, in a manner that has been possible in the two-dimensional analogue for some time.

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Physical activity patterns of inner-city elementary schoolchildren

Purpose This study aimed to objectively measure the physical activity (PA) characteristics of a racially and ethnically diverse sample of inner-city elementary schoolchildren and to examine the influence of sex, race/ethnicity, grade level, and weight status on PA. Methods A total of 470 students in grades 4-6 from six inner-city schools in Philadelphia wore an ActiGraph GT3X+ accelerometer (Actigraph, Pensacola, FL) for up to 7 d. The resultant data were uploaded to a customized Visual Basic EXCEL macro to determine the time spent in sedentary (SED), light-intensity PA (LPA), and moderate- to vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA). Results On average, students accumulated 48 min of MVPA daily. Expressed as a percentage of monitoring time, students were sedentary for 63% of the time, in LPA 31% of the time, and in MVPA 6% of the time. Across all race/ethnicity and grade level groups, boys exhibited significantly higher levels of MVPA than girls did; fifth-grade boys exhibited significantly lower MVPA levels than fourth-and sixth-grade boys did, and sixth-grade girls exhibited significantly lower MVPA levels than fourth-and fifth-grade girls did. Hispanic children exhibited lower levels of MVPA than children from other racial/ethnic groups did, and overweight and obese children exhibited significantly lower MVPA levels than children in the healthy weight range did. Across the entire sample, only 24.3% met the current public health guidelines for PA. Physical inactivity was significantly greater among females, Hispanics, and overweight and obese students. Conclusions Fewer than one in four inner-city schoolchildren accumulated the recommended 60 min of MVPA daily. These findings highlight the need for effective and sustainable programs to promote PA in inner-city youth.

Patterns of accelerometer-assessed sedentary behavior in older women

Recent studies suggest a high volume of sedentary behavior may be a risk factor for adverse health outcomes.1 However, few data exist on how this behavior is patterned (eg, does most sedentary behavior occur in a few long bouts or in many short bouts?) and whether sedentary patterns are relevant for health. We examined details of sedentary behavior among older women. Because physical activity is influenced by age, body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), and smoking status, we further examined sedentary behavior in relation to these characteristics.

Effect of crack depth and specimen width on fracture toughness of a carbon steel in the ductile-brittle transition region

The effects of crack depth (a/W) and specimen width W on the fracture toughness and ductile±brittle transition have been investigated using three-point bend specimens. Finite element analysis is employed to obtain the stress-strain fields ahead of the crack tip. The results show that both normalized crack depth (a/W) and specimen width (W) affect the fracture toughness and ductile±brittle fracture transition. The measured crack tip opening displacement decreases and ductile±brittle transition occurs with increasing crack depth (a/W) from 0.1 to 0.2 and 0.3. At a fixed a/W (0.2 or 0.3), all specimens fail by cleavage prior to ductile tearing when specimen width W increases from 25 to 40 and 50 mm. The lower bound fracture toughness is not sensitive to crack depth and specimen width. Finite element analysis shows that the opening stress in the remaining ligament is elevated with increasing crack depth or specimen width due to the increase of in-plane constraint. The average local cleavage stress is dependent on both crack depth and specimen width but its lower bound value is not sensitive to constraint level. No fixed distance can be found from the cleavage initiation site to the crack tip and this distance increases gradually with decreasing inplane constraint.

Effect of constraint on void growth near a blunt crack tip

The growth of a single cylindrical hole ahead of a blunt crack tip was studied using large deformation finite element analysis in three-point bend specimens with different precrack depth. The effect of small second phase particles was taken into account by incorporating Gurson’s constitutive equation. The effects of strain hardening and the initial distance from the hole to the crack tip were also investigated. The results show that the variation of crack tip opening displacement with load is not sensitive to constraint level. The effects of constraint on the growth of hole and ductile initiation toughness are diminished with decreasing initial distance from the hole to the blunt crack tip.

Life transitions and changing physical activity patterns in young women

Background Physical activity (PA) patterns are likely to change in young adulthood in line with changes in lifestyle that occur in the transition from adolescence to adulthood. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether key life events experienced by young women in their early twenties are associated with increasing levels of inactivity. Methods This was a 4-year follow-up of 7281 participants (aged 18 to 23 years at baseline) in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women’s Health, with self-reported measures of PA, life events, body mass index (BMI), and sociodemographic variables. Results The cross-sectional data indicated no change in PA between baseline (57% “active”) and follow-up (56% “active”). However, for almost 40% of the sample, PA category changed between baseline and follow-up, with approximately 20% of the women changing from being “active” to “inactive,” and another 20% changing from being “inactive” to “active.” After adjustment for age, other sociodemographic variables, BMI, and PA at baseline, women who reported getting married, having a first or subsequent child, or beginning paid work were more likely to be inactive at follow-up than those who did not report these events. Conclusions The results suggest that life events such as getting married, having children, and starting work are associated with decreased levels of PA in young adult women. Strategies are needed to promote maintenance of activity at the time when most women experience these key life-stage transitions.

Physical activity patterns of Singaporean adolescents

The purpose of this study was to document the level of physical activity and sedentary behavior in a representative sample of Singaporean adolescents. A random sample of 1,827 secondary school students from six secondary schools (929 boys, 898 girls, mean age 14.9 +/- 1.2 yr) completed the Three-Day Physical Activity Recall (3DPAR) self-report instrument. Approximately 63% of Singaporean high school students met current guidelines requiring 60 min of moderate to vigorous physical activity daily. Just over half (51.6%) met the guideline calling for regular vigorous physical activity. Across all grade levels, boys were consistently more active than girls. More than 70% of Singaporean high school students exceeded the recommended 2 hours per day of electronic media use. Collectively, these findings suggest that a significant proportion of Singaporean adolescents are not sufficiently active and are in need of programs to promote physical activity and decrease sedentary behavior.

Numerical investigation on stable crack growth in plane stress

Large deformation finite element analysis has been carried out to investigate the stress-strain fields ahead of a growing crack for compact tension .a=W D 0:5/ and three-point bend .a=W D 0:1 and 0:5/ specimens under plane stress condition. The crack growth is controlled by the experimental J -integral resistance curves measured by Sun et al. The results indicate that the distributions of opening stress, equivalent stress and equivalent strain ahead of a growing crack are not sensitive to specimen geometry. For both stationary and growing cracks, similar distributions of opening stress and triaxiality can be found along the ligament. During stable crack growth, the crack-tip opening displacement (CTOD) resistance curve and the cohesive fracture energy in the fracture process zone are independent of specimen geometry and may be suitable criteria for characterizing stable crack growth in plane stress.

Effect of constraint on ductile crack growth and ductile-brittle fracture transition of a carbon steel

Ductile-brittle fracture transition was investigated using compact tension (CT) specimens from -70oC to 40oC for a carbon steel. Large deformation finite element analysis has been carried out to simulate the stable crack growth in the compact tension (CT, a/W=0.6), three point-point bend (SE(B), a/W=0.1) and centre-cracked tension (M(T), a/W=0.5) specimens. Experimental crack tip opening displacement (CTOD) resistance curve was employed as the crack growth criterion. Ductile tearing is sensitive to constraint and tearing modulus increases with reduced constraint level. The finite element analysis shows that path-dependence of J-integral occurs from the very beginning of crack growth and ductile crack growth elevates the opening stress on the remaining ligament. Cleavage may occur after some ductile crack growth due to the increase of opening stress. For both stationary and growing cracks, the magnitude of opening stress increases with increasing in-plane constraint. The ductile-brittle transition takes place when the opening stress ahead of the crack tip reaches the local cleavage stress as the in-plane constraint of the specimen increases.

Capacity of fatty acid profiles and substrate utilization patterns to describe differences in soil microbial communities associated with increased salinity or alkalinity at three locations in South Australia

Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles, together with Biolog substrate utilization patterns, were used in conjunction with measurements of other soil chemical and microbiological properties to describe differences in soil microbial communities induced by increased salinity and alkalinity in grass/legume pastures at three sites in SE South Australia. Total ester-linked FAMEs (EL-FAMEs) and phospholipid-linked FAMEs (PL-FAMEs), were also compared for their ability to detect differences between the soil microbial communities. The level of salinity and alkalinity in affected areas of the pastures showed seasonal variation, being greater in summer than in winter. At the time of sampling for the chemical and microbiological measurements (winter) only the affected soil at site 1 was significantly saline. The affected soils at all three sites had lower organic C and total N concentrations than the corresponding non-affected soils. At site 1 microbial biomass, CO 2-C respiration and the rate of cellulose decomposition was also lower in the affected soil compared to the non-affected soil. Biomarker fatty acids present in both the EL- and PL-FAME profiles indicated a lower ratio of fungal to bacterial fatty acids in the saline affected soil at site 1. Analysis of Biolog substrate utilization patterns indicated that the bacterial community in the affected soil at site 1 utilized fewer carbon substrates and had lower functional diversity than the corresponding community in the non-affected soil. In contrast, increased alkalinity, of major importance at sites 2 and 3, had no effect on microbial biomass, the rate of cellulose decomposition or functional diversity but was associated with significant differences in the relative amounts of several fatty acids in the PL-FAME profiles indicative of a shift towards a bacterial dominated community. Despite differences in the number and relative amounts of fatty acids detected, principal component analysis of the EL- and PL-FAME profiles were equally capable of separating the affected and non-affected soils at all three sites. Redundancy analysis of the FAME data showed that organic C, microbial biomass, electrical conductivity and bicarbonate-extractable P were significantly correlated with variation in the EL-FAME profiles, whereas pH, electrical conductivity, NH 4-N, CO 2-C respiration and the microbial quotient were significantly correlated with variation in the PL-FAME profiles. Redundancy analysis of the Biolog data indicated that cation exchange capacity and bicarbonate-extractable K were significantly correlated with the variation in Biolog substrate utilization patterns.

Non-linear principal components analysis : an alternative method for finding patterns in environmental data

The main purpose of this article is to gain an insight into the relationships between variables describing the environmental conditions of the Far Northern section of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Several of the variables describing these conditions had different measurement levels and often they had non-linear relationships. Using non-linear principal component analysis, it was possible to acquire an insight into these relationships. Furthermore, three geographical areas with unique environmental characteristics could be identified.