A computable general equilibrium analysis of the relative price sensitivity required to induce rebound effects in response to an improvement in energy efficiency in the UK economy

In recent years there has been extensive debate in the energy economics and policy literature on the likely impacts of improvements in energy efficiency. This debate has focussed on the notion of rebound effects. Rebound effects occur when improvements in energy efficiency actually stimulate the direct and indirect demand for energy in production and/or consumption. This phenomenon occurs through the impact of the increased efficiency on the effective, or implicit, price of energy. If demand is stimulated in this way, the anticipated reduction in energy use, and the consequent environmental benefits, will be partially or possibly even more than wholly (in the case of ‘backfire’ effects) offset. A recent report published by the UK House of Lords identifies rebound effects as a plausible explanation as to why recent improvements in energy efficiency in the UK have not translated to reductions in energy demand at the macroeconomic level, but calls for empirical investigation of the factors that govern the extent of such effects. Undoubtedly the single most important conclusion of recent analysis in the UK, led by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) is that the extent of rebound and backfire effects is always and everywhere an empirical issue. It is simply not possible to determine the degree of rebound and backfire from theoretical considerations alone, notwithstanding the claims of some contributors to the debate. In particular, theoretical analysis cannot rule out backfire. Nor, strictly, can theoretical considerations alone rule out the other limiting case, of zero rebound, that a narrow engineering approach would imply. In this paper we use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework to investigate the conditions under which rebound effects may occur in the Scottish regional and UK national economies. Previous work has suggested that rebound effects will occur even where key elasticities of substitution in production are set close to zero. Here, we carry out a systematic sensitivity analysis, where we gradually introduce relative price sensitivity into the system, focusing in particular on elasticities of substitution in production and trade parameters, in order to determine conditions under which rebound effects become a likely outcome. We find that, while there is positive pressure for rebound effects even where (direct and indirect) demand for energy is very price inelastic, this may be partially or wholly offset by negative income and disinvestment effects, which also occur in response to falling energy prices.

Sex difference and the role of leptin in the association between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and adiposity in two different populations.

Elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) concentration is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease but this association seems to be largely mediated via conventional cardiovascular risk factors. In particular, the association between hs-CRP and obesity has been extensively demonstrated and correlations are stronger in women than men. We used fractional polynomials-a method that allows flexible modeling of non linear relations-to investigate the dose/response mathematical relationship between hs-CRP and several indicators of adiposity in Caucasians (Switzerland) and Africans (Seychelles) surveyed in two population-based studies. This relationship was non-linear exhibiting a steeper slope for low levels of hs-CRP and a higher level in women. The observed sex difference in the relationship between hs-CRP and adiposity almost disappeared upon adjustment for leptin, suggesting that these sex differences might be partially mediated, by leptin. All these relationship were similar in Caucasians and Africans. This is the first report on a non-linear relation, stratified by gender, between hs-CRP and adiposity.

Prognostication of neurologic outcome in cardiac arrest patients after mild therapeutic hypothermia: a meta-analysis of the current literature.

PURPOSE: To assess the sensitivity and false positive rate (FPR) of neurological examination and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEPs) to predict poor outcome in adult patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for cohort studies describing the association of clinical neurological examination or SSEPs after return of spontaneous circulation with neurological outcome. Poor outcome was defined as severe disability, vegetative state and death. Sensitivity and FPR were determined. RESULTS: A total of 1,153 patients from ten studies were included. The FPR of a bilaterally absent cortical N20 response of the SSEP could be calculated from nine studies including 492 patients. The SSEP had an FPR of 0.007 (confidence interval, CI, 0.001-0.047) to predict poor outcome. The Glasgow coma score (GCS) motor response was assessed in 811 patients from nine studies. A GCS motor score of 1-2 at 72 h had a high FPR of 0.21 (CI 0.08-0.43). Corneal reflex and pupillary reactivity at 72 h after the arrest were available in 429 and 566 patients, respectively. Bilaterally absent corneal reflexes had an FPR of 0.02 (CI 0.002-0.13). Bilaterally absent pupillary reflexes had an FPR of 0.004 (CI 0.001-0.03). CONCLUSIONS: At 72 h after the arrest the motor response to painful stimuli and the corneal reflexes are not a reliable tool for the early prediction of poor outcome in patients treated with hypothermia. The reliability of the pupillary response to light and the SSEP is comparable to that in patients not treated with hypothermia.

Minu, Startu and all that:- Pitfalls in estimating the sensitivity of a worker’s wage to aggregate unemployment

In this paper we show that the inclusion of unemployment-tenure interaction variates in Mincer wage equations is subject to serious pitfalls. These variates were designed to test whether or not the sensitivity to the business cycle of a worker’s wage varies according to her tenure. We show that three canonical variates used in the literature - the minimum unemployment rate during a worker’s time at the firm(min u), the unemployment rate at the start of her tenure(Su) and the current unemployment rate interacted with a new hire dummy(δu) - can all be significant and "correctly" signed even when each worker in the firm receives the same wage, regardless of tenure (equal treatment). In matched data the problem can be resolved by the inclusion in the panel of firm-year interaction dummies. In unmatched data where this is not possible, we propose a solution for min u and Su based on Solon, Barsky and Parker’s(1994) two step method. This method is sub-optimal because it ignores a large amount of cross tenure variation in average wages and is only valid when the scaled covariances of firm wages and firm employment are acyclical. Unfortunately δu cannot be identified in unmatched data because a differential wage response to unemployment of new hires and incumbents will appear under both equal treatment and unequal treatment.

Evolution of insulin sensitivity and its variability in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients treated with hypothermia.

INTRODUCTION: Therapeutic hypothermia (TH) is often used to treat out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients who also often simultaneously receive insulin for stress-induced hyperglycaemia. However, the impact of TH on systemic metabolism and insulin resistance in critical illness is unknown. This study analyses the impact of TH on metabolism, including the evolution of insulin sensitivity (SI) and its variability, in patients with coma after OHCA. METHODS: This study uses a clinically validated, model-based measure of SI. Insulin sensitivity was identified hourly using retrospective data from 200 post-cardiac arrest patients (8,522 hours) treated with TH, shortly after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Blood glucose and body temperature readings were taken every one to two hours. Data were divided into three periods: 1) cool (T <35°C); 2) an idle period of two hours as normothermia was re-established; and 3) warm (T >37°C). A maximum of 24 hours each for the cool and warm periods was considered. The impact of each condition on SI is analysed per cohort and per patient for both level and hour-to-hour variability, between periods and in six-hour blocks. RESULTS: Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increase consistently by 35% to 70% and 26% to 59% (P <0.001) respectively from cool to warm. Conversely, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 11.1% to 33.6% (P <0.001) for the first 12 hours of treatment. However, SI variability increases between the 18th and 30th hours over the cool to warm transition, before continuing to decrease afterward. CONCLUSIONS: OCHA patients treated with TH have significantly lower and more variable SI during the cool period, compared to the later warm period. As treatment continues, SI level rises, and variability decreases consistently except for a large, significant increase during the cool to warm transition. These results demonstrate increased resistance to insulin during mild induced hypothermia. Our study might have important implications for glycaemic control during targeted temperature management.

A corneal dystrophy associated with transforming growth factor beta-induced Gly623Asp mutation an amyloidogenic phenotype.

PURPOSE: To present the light and electron microscopic findings of a unique corneal dystrophy never before described in a German family carrying the Gly623Asp Mutation of the TGFBI gene with late clinical onset. DESIGN: Experimental study. PARTICIPANTS: Four affected and 6 nonaffected family members. METHODS: Slit-lamp examination, photographic documentation, and isolation of genomic DNA from peripheral blood leucocytes obtained from each family member examined. Exons 3, 4, 5, and 11 to 14 of the TGFBI gene were amplified and sequenced in these family members. Five corneal buttons of 3 affected siblings were excised at the time of penetrating keratoplasty. Light and electron microscopic examination were performed including immunohistochemistry with antibodies against keratoepithelin (KE) 2 and 15. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical and histologic characteristics of corneal opacification in affected patients and presence of coding region changes in the TGFBI gene. RESULTS: The specimens showed destructive changes in Bowman's layer and the adjacent stroma. Patchy Congo red-positive amyloid deposits were found within the epithelium in 1 cornea, in Bowman's layer and in the anterior stroma of all specimens also showing KE2, but not KE15, immunostaining. Electron microscopy revealed deposits mainly located in the anterior stroma and Bowman's layer and in small amounts in the basal area of some epithelial cells. The destroyed areas were strongly Alcian blue-positive, the Masson Trichrome stain proved mainly negative for the deposits. All affected but none of the unaffected family members had a heterozygous missense mutation in exon 14 of the TGFBI gene (G-->A transition at nucleotide 1915) replacing glycin by aspartic acid amino acid (Gly623Asp) at position 623 of the KE protein. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast with the patient carrying the Gly623Asp mutation of the TGFBI gene described by Afshari et al, our cases presented with Salzmann's nodular degeneration-like clinical features and their specimens contained KE2-positive amyloid. The reason for this now "meeting the expectation histologic phenotype" is unclear. The histologic findings emphasize that this is a unique corneal dystrophy, which shares no clinical characteristics with Reis-Bücklers' dystrophy and should be treated as a distinct entity. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): The authors have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Characterization of pip5k3 fleck corneal dystrophy-linked gene in zebrafish.

PIKfyve is a kinase encoded by pip5k3 involved in phosphatidylinositols (PdtIns) pathways. These lipids building cell membranes have structural functions and are involved in complex intracellular regulations. Mutations in human PIP5K3 are associated with François-Neetens mouchetée fleck corneal dystrophy [Li, S., Tiab, L., Jiao, X., Munier, F.L., Zografos, L., Frueh, B.E., Sergeev, Y., Smith, J., Rubin, B., Meallet, M.A., Forster, R.K., Hejtmancik, J.F., Schorderet, D.F., 2005. Mutations in PIP5K3 are associated with François-Neetens mouchetee fleck corneal dystrophy. Am. J. Hum. Genet. 77, 54-63]. We cloned the zebrafish pip5k3 and report its molecular characterization and expression pattern in adult fish as well as during development. The zebrafish PIKfyve was 70% similar to the human homologue. The gene encompassed 42 exons and presented four alternatively spliced variants. It had a widespread expression in the adult organs and was localized in specific cell types in the eye as the cornea, lens, ganglion cell layer, inner nuclear layer and outer limiting membrane. Pip5k3 transcripts were detected in early cleavage stage embryos. Then it was uniformly expressed at 10 somites, 18 somites and 24 hpf. Its expression was then restricted to the head region at 48 hpf, 72 hpf and 5 dpf and partial expression was found in somites at 72 hpf and 5 dpf. In situ on eye sections at 3 dpf showed a staining mainly in lens, outer limiting membrane, inner nuclear layer and ganglion cell layer. A similar expression pattern was found in the eye at 5 dpf. A temporal regulation of the spliced variants was observed at 1, 3 and 5 dpf and they were also found in the adult eye.

A Sensitivity analysis of poverty definitions

We conduct a sensitivity analysis of several estimators related to household income, to explore how some details of the definitions of the variables concerned influence the values of the common estimates, such as the mean, median and (poverty) rates. The purpose of this study is to highlight that some of the operational definitions entail an element of arbitrariness which leaves an undesirable stamp on the inferences made. The analyses use both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal (panel) component of the EU-SILC database.

Moderate amounts of fructose consumption impair insulin sensitivity in healthy young men: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Adverse effects of hypercaloric, high-fructose diets on insulin sensitivity and lipids in human subjects have been shown repeatedly. The implications of fructose in amounts close to usual daily consumption, however, have not been well studied. This study assessed the effect of moderate amounts of fructose and sucrose compared with glucose on glucose and lipid metabolism. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Nine healthy, normal-weight male volunteers (aged 21-25 years) were studied in this double-blind, randomized, cross-over trial. All subjects consumed four different sweetened beverages (600 mL/day) for 3 weeks each: medium fructose (MF) at 40 g/day, and high fructose (HF), high glucose (HG), and high sucrose (HS) each at 80 g/day. Euglycemic-hyperinsulinemic clamps with [6,6]-(2)H(2) glucose labeling were used to measure endogenous glucose production. Lipid profile, glucose, and insulin were measured in fasting samples. RESULTS: Hepatic suppression of glucose production during the clamp was significantly lower after HF (59.4 ± 11.0%) than HG (70.3 ± 10.5%, P < 0.05), whereas fasting glucose, insulin, and C-peptide did not differ between the interventions. Compared with HG, LDL cholesterol and total cholesterol were significantly higher after MF, HF, and HS, and free fatty acids were significantly increased after MF, but not after the two other interventions (P < 0.05). Subjects' energy intake during the interventions did not differ significantly from baseline intake. CONCLUSIONS: This study clearly shows that moderate amounts of fructose and sucrose significantly alter hepatic insulin sensitivity and lipid metabolism compared with similar amounts of glucose.

Nitrosative stress and corneal transplant endothelial cell death during acute graft rejection.

BACKGROUND: Nitrosative stress takes place in endothelial cells (EC) during corneal acute graft rejection. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential role of peroxynitrite on corneal EC death. METHODS: The effect of peroxynitrite was evaluated in vivo. Fifty, 250, and 500 microM in 1.5 microL of the natural or denatured peroxynitrite in 50 microM NaOH, 50 microM NaOH alone, or balanced salt solution were injected into the anterior chamber of rat eyes (n=3/group). Corneal toxic signs after injection were assessed by slit-lamp, in vivo confocal imaging, pachymetry, and EC count. The effect of peroxynitrite was also evaluated on nitrotyrosine and leucocyte elastase inhibitor/LDNase II immunohistochemistry. Human corneas were incubated with peroxynitrite and the effect on EC viability was evaluated. A specific inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibitor (iNOS) was administered systemically in rats undergoing allogeneic corneal graft rejection and the effect on EC was evaluated by EC count. RESULTS: Rat eyes receiving as little as 50 microM peroxynitrite showed a specific dose-dependent toxicity on EC. We observed an intense nitrotyrosine staining of human and rat EC exposed to peroxynitrite associated with leucocyte elastase inhibitor nuclear translocation, a noncaspase dependent apoptosis reaction. Specific inhibition of iNOS generation prevented EC death and enhanced EC survival of the grafted corneas. However, inhibition of iNOS did not have a significant influence on the incidence of graft rejection. CONCLUSION: Nitrosative stress during acute corneal graft rejection in rat eyes induces a noncaspase dependent apoptotic death in EC. Inhibition of nitric oxide production during the corneal graft rejection has protective effects on the corneal EC survival.

Association of mutations in the NALP3/CIAS1/PYPAF1 gene with a broad phenotype including recurrent fever, cold sensitivity, sensorineural deafness, and AA amyloidosis.

OBJECTIVE: Familial cold urticaria (FCU) and Muckle-Wells syndrome (MWS) are dominantly inherited autoinflammatory disorders that cause rashes, fever, arthralgia, and in some subjects, AA amyloidosis, and have been mapped to chromosome 1q44. Sensorineural deafness in MWS, and provocation of symptoms by cold in FCU, are distinctive features. This study was undertaken to characterize the genetic basis of FCU, MWS, and an overlapping disorder in French Canadian, British, and Indian families, respectively. METHODS: Mutations in the candidate gene NALP3, which has also been named CIAS1 and PYPAF1, were sought in the study families, in a British/Spanish patient with apparent sporadic MWS, and in matched population controls. Identified variants were sought in 50 European subjects with uncharacterized, apparently sporadic periodic fever syndromes, 48 subjects with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and 19 subjects with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). RESULTS: Point mutations, encoding putative protein variants R262W and L307P, were present in all affected members of the Indian and French Canadian families, respectively, but not in controls. The R262W variant was also present in the subject with sporadic MWS. The V200M variant was present in all affected members of the British family with MWS, in 2 of the 50 subjects with uncharacterized periodic fevers, and in 1 of 130 Caucasian and 2 of 48 Indian healthy controls. No mutations were identified among the subjects with RA or JIA. CONCLUSION: These findings confirm that mutations in the NALP3/CIAS1/PYPAF1 gene are associated with FCU and MWS, and that disease severity and clinical features may differ substantially within and between families. Analysis of this gene will improve classification of patients with inherited or apparently sporadic periodic fever syndromes.

Abnormal sensitivity to negative feedback in late-life depression.

AIMS: The purpose of the present study was to probe sensitivity to potentially misleading negative feedback on cognitive tasks as a possible mechanism of cognitive impairment in elderly patients with mild depression. METHODS: A total of 22 mildly depressed elderly subjects were compared to 22 healthy controls, using a computerized Tower-of-London task. RESULTS: Failure and magnitude of failure were significantly worse after negative but not positive feedback. Depression predicted failure after negative feedback but not the magnitude of failure. Neither failure nor magnitude of failure increased as a consequence of repeated negative feedback. CONCLUSIONS: Altered sensitivity to negative feedback occurs in mild late-life unipolar depression and may represent a subtle context-specific phenomenon.