Two-agent cooperative search using game models with endurance-time constraints

In this article, the problem of two Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) cooperatively searching an unknown region is addressed. The search region is discretized into hexagonal cells and each cell is assumed to possess an uncertainty value. The UAVs have to cooperatively search these cells taking limited endurance, sensor and communication range constraints into account. Due to limited endurance, the UAVs need to return to the base station for refuelling and also need to select a base station when multiple base stations are present. This article proposes a route planning algorithm that takes endurance time constraints into account and uses game theoretical strategies to reduce the uncertainty. The route planning algorithm selects only those cells that ensure the agent will return to any one of the available bases. A set of paths are formed using these cells which the game theoretical strategies use to select a path that yields maximum uncertainty reduction. We explore non-cooperative Nash, cooperative and security strategies from game theory to enhance the search effectiveness. Monte-Carlo simulations are carried out which show the superiority of the game theoretical strategies over greedy strategy for different look ahead step length paths. Within the game theoretical strategies, non-cooperative Nash and cooperative strategy perform similarly in an ideal case, but Nash strategy performs better than the cooperative strategy when the perceived information is different. We also propose a heuristic based on partitioning of the search space into sectors to reduce computational overhead without performance degradation.

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Self assessment schemes for multi-agent cooperative search

In this paper, we present self assessment schemes (SAS) for multiple agents performing a search mission on an unknown terrain. The agents are subjected to limited communication and sensor ranges. The agents communicate and coordinate with their neighbours to arrive at route decisions. The self assessment schemes proposed here have very low communication and computational overhead. The SAS also has attractive features like scalability to large number of agents and fast decision-making capability. SAS can be used with partial or complete information sharing schemes during the search mission. We validate the performance of SAS using simulation on a large search space consisting of 100 agents with different information structures and self assessment schemes. We also compare the results obtained using SAS with that of a previously proposed negotiation scheme. The simulation results show that the SAS is scalable to large number of agents and can perform as good as the negotiation schemes with reduced communication requirement (almost 20% of that required for negotiation).

Cooperative Replies to Unbelievable Assertions

We propose a dialogue protocol for situations in which an agent makes to another agent an assertion that the other agent finds impossible to believe. In this interaction, unbelievable assertions are rejected using explanations formed by logical interpolation and new assertions are being made such that all previous rebuttals are taken into account.

Relay Selection and Data Transmission Throughput Tradeoff in Cooperative Systems

A common and practical paradigm in cooperative communications is the use of a dynamically selected 'best' relay to decode and forward information from a source to a destination. Such a system consists of two core phases: a relay selection phase, in which the system expends resources to select the best relay, and a data transmission phase, in which it uses the selected relay to forward data to the destination. In this paper, we study and optimize the trade-off between the selection and data transmission phase durations. We derive closed-form expressions for the overall throughput of a non-adaptive system that includes the selection phase overhead, and then optimize the selection and data transmission phase durations. Corresponding results are also derived for an adaptive system in which the relays can vary their transmission rates. Our results show that the optimal selection phase overhead can be significant even for fast selection algorithms. Furthermore, the optimal selection phase duration depends on the number of relays and whether adaptation is used.

Credit Default Swaps and Insurance: Against the Potts Opinion

Little attention has been given to the possibility that CDS transactions might be construed as insurance contracts in English law. This article challenges the widespread “Potts opinion”, which states that CDSs are not insurance, because they do not require the protection buyer to sustain a loss or to have an insurable interest in the subject matter. CDSs often do provide protection against loss that the buyer is exposed to; loss indemnity is not a necessary characterisation of an insurance contract; insurable interest does not form part of the definition of insurance, but is an additional requirement of valid insurance; and what matters is the substance not the form of the contract. The situation in the US and Australia is also briefly considered.

The Relay Selection and Transmission Trade-off in Cooperative Communication Systems

A common and practical paradigm in cooperative communication systems is the use of a dynamically selected `best' relay to decode and forward information from a source to a destination. Such systems use two phases - a relay selection phase, in which the system uses transmission time and energy to select the best relay, and a data transmission phase, in which it uses the spatial diversity benefits of selection to transmit data. In this paper, we derive closed-form expressions for the overall throughput and energy consumption, and study the time and energy trade-off between the selection and data transmission phases. To this end, we analyze a baseline non-adaptive system and several adaptive systems that adapt the selection phase, relay transmission power, or transmission time. Our results show that while selection yields significant benefits, the selection phase's time and energy overhead can be significant. In fact, at the optimal point, the selection can be far from perfect, and depends on the number of relays and the mode of adaptation. The results also provide guidelines about the optimal system operating point for different modes of adaptation. The analysis also sheds new insights on the fast splitting-based algorithm considered in this paper for relay selection.

Voluntary Energy Harvesting Relays and Selection in Cooperative Wireless Networks

The use of energy harvesting (EH) nodes as cooperative relays is a promising and emerging solution in wireless systems such as wireless sensor networks. It harnesses the spatial diversity of a multi-relay network and addresses the vexing problem of a relay's batteries getting drained in forwarding information to the destination. We consider a cooperative system in which EH nodes volunteer to serve as amplify-and-forward relays whenever they have sufficient energy for transmission. For a general class of stationary and ergodic EH processes, we introduce the notion of energy constrained and energy unconstrained relays and analytically characterize the symbol error rate of the system. Further insight is gained by an asymptotic analysis that considers the cases where the signal-to-noise-ratio or the number of relays is large. Our analysis quantifies how the energy usage at an EH relay and, consequently, its availability for relaying, depends not only on the relay's energy harvesting process, but also on its transmit power setting and the other relays in the system. The optimal static transmit power setting at the EH relays is also determined. Altogether, our results demonstrate how a system that uses EH relays differs in significant ways from one that uses conventional cooperative relays.

Application of nonlinear filtering to credit risk

Merton's model views equity as a call option on the asset of the firm. Thus the asset is partially observed through the equity. Then using nonlinear filtering an explicit expression for likelihood ratio for underlying parameters in terms of the nonlinear filter is obtained. As the evolution of the filter itself depends on the parameters in question, this does not permit direct maximum likelihood estimation, but does pave the way for the `Expectation-Maximization' method for estimating parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A non-cooperative game-theoretic approach to channel assignment in multi-channel multi-radio wireless networks

Channel assignment in multi-channel multi-radio wireless networks poses a significant challenge due to scarcity of number of channels available in the wireless spectrum. Further, additional care has to be taken to consider the interference characteristics of the nodes in the network especially when nodes are in different collision domains. This work views the problem of channel assignment in multi-channel multi-radio networks with multiple collision domains as a non-cooperative game where the objective of the players is to maximize their individual utility by minimizing its interference. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the channel assignment to be a Nash Equilibrium (NE) and efficiency of the NE is analyzed by deriving the lower bound of the price of anarchy of this game. A new fairness measure in multiple collision domain context is proposed and necessary and sufficient conditions for NE outcomes to be fair are derived. The equilibrium conditions are then applied to solve the channel assignment problem by proposing three algorithms, based on perfect/imperfect information, which rely on explicit communication between the players for arriving at an NE. A no-regret learning algorithm known as Freund and Schapire Informed algorithm, which has an additional advantage of low overhead in terms of information exchange, is proposed and its convergence to the stabilizing outcomes is studied. New performance metrics are proposed and extensive simulations are done using Matlab to obtain a thorough understanding of the performance of these algorithms on various topologies with respect to these metrics. It was observed that the algorithms proposed were able to achieve good convergence to NE resulting in efficient channel assignment strategies.

Cooperative Spectrum Sensing Algorithms For OFDM Systems with Frequency Selective Channels

This paper considers the problem of spectrum sensing in cognitive radio networks when the primary user employs Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM). We specifically consider the scenario when the channel between the primary and a secondary user is frequency selective. We develop cooperative sequential detection algorithms based on energy detectors. We modify the detectors to mitigate the effects of some common model uncertainties such as timing and frequency offset, IQ-imbalance and uncertainty in noise and transmit power. The performance of the proposed algorithms are studied via simulations. We show that the performance of the energy detector is not affected by the frequency selective channel. We also provide a theoretical analysis for some of our algorithms.

Cooperative OFDM with Amplify-and-Forward Relaying with Timing Offset

In this paper, we investigate cooperative OFDM communications using amplify-and-forward (AF) protocol at the relays, in the presence of imperfect timing synchronization. In most studies on cooperative communications, perfect time synchronization among cooperating nodes is assumed. In practice, however, due to imperfect time synchronization, orthogonality among the subcarriers of the different nodes' signals at the destination receiver can be lost, causing inter-symbol interference (ISI). In this paper, we derive analytical expressions for the average SINR at the DFT output at the destination as a function of timing offset in cooperative OFDM with AF protocol, and illustrate the SINR degradation as a function of the timing offset. We also present an interference canceling (IC) receiver to mitigate the effects of ISI when there is timing offset. We show that the proposed IC receiver achieves improved BER performance even when timing offsets are large.