Bayesian estimation of willingness-to-pay where respondents mis-report their preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

Comparison of preferences for object properties in the rat using paired- and free-choice paradigms

A common method for testing preference for objects is to determine which of a pair of objects is approached first in a paired-choice paradigm. In comparison, many studies of preference for environmental enrichment (EE) devices have used paradigms in which total time spent with each of a pair of objects is used to determine preference. While each of these paradigms gives a specific measure of the preference for one object in comparison to another, neither method allows comparisons between multiple objects simultaneously. Since it is possible that several EE objects would be placed in a cage together to improve animal welfare, it is important to determine measures for rats' preferences in conditions that mimic this potential home cage environment. While it would be predicted that each type of measure would produce similar rankings of objects, this has never been tested empirically. In this study, we compared two paradigms: EE objects were either presented in pairs (paired-choice comparison) or four objects were presented simultaneously (simultaneous presentation comparison). We used frequency of first interaction and time spent with each object to rank the objects in the paired-choice experiment, and time spent with each object to rank the objects in the simultaneous presentation experiment. We also considered the behaviours elicited by the objects to determine if these might be contributing to object preference. We demonstrated that object ranking based on time spent with objects from the paired-choice experiment predicted object ranking in the simultaneous presentation experiment. Additionally, we confirmed that behaviours elicited were an important determinant of time spent with an object. This provides convergent evidence that both paired choice and simultaneous comparisons provide valid measures of preference for EE objects in rats. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eliciting consumer preferences for certified animal-friendly foods: can elements of the theory of planned behavior improve choice experiment analysis?

Models used in neoclassical economics assume human behaviour to be purely rational. On the other hand, models adopted in social and behavioural psychology are founded on the ‘black box’ of human cognition. In view of these observations, this paper aims at bridging this gap by introducing psychological constructs in the well established microeconomic framework of choice behaviour based on random utility theory. In particular, it combines constructs developed employing Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour with Lancaster’s theory of consumer demand for product characteristics to explain stated preferences over certified animal-friendly foods. To reach this objective a web survey was administered in the largest five EU-25 countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Findings identify some salient cross-cultural differences between northern and southern Europe and suggest that psychological constructs developed using the Ajzen model are useful in explaining heterogeneity of preferences. Implications for policy makers and marketers involved with certified animal-friendly foods are discussed.

Variation of the oviposition preferences of Aedes aegypti in function of substratum and humidity

Two Aedes aegypti (L.) populations were studied in the laboratory regarding the preference for three types of breeding sites, i.e., flasks containing only water, flasks with a plant and flasks with a stick. Each of these breeding units was placed in one cage and the choice of the oviposition sites was determined for individual females and three females per experimental unit at two humidity levels. Preference for ovipositing on the water surface was observed and varied according to experimental unit and humidity. Mean hatching of eggs in water surface was 46.6%. Experiments with three females showed a more marked difference than when only one female was used. Inter and intrapopulation variability regarding oviposition sites was observed. The discrimination between the different oviposition substrates, hatching in water surface and its implication for mosquito control are discussed.

Improving a process in a brazilian automotive plant applying process mapping, Design of Experiments and Discrete Events Simulation

The objective of this article is to apply the Design of Experiments technique along with the Discrete Events Simulation technique in an automotive process. The benefits of the design of experiments in simulation include the possibility to improve the performance in the simulation process, avoiding trial and error to seek solutions. The methodology of the conjoint use of Design of Experiments and Computer Simulation is presented to assess the effects of the variables and its interactions involved in the process. In this paper, the efficacy of the use of process mapping and design of experiments on the phases of conception and analysis are confirmed.

Peirce's mathematical-logical approach to discrete collections and the premonition of continuity

According to Peirce one of the most important philosophical problems is continuity. Consequently, he set forth an innovative and peculiar approach in order to elucidate at once its mathematical and metaphysical challenges through proper non-classical logical reasoning. I will restrain my argument to the definition of the different types of discrete collections according to Peirce, with a special regard to the phenomenon called premonition of continuity (Peirce, 1976, Vol. 3, p. 87, c. 1897). © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Analysis of preferences for freight transport using advanced choice models

Programa de doctorado: Perspectivas científicas sobre el turismo y la dirección de empresas turísticas

A Framework for the Automation of Discrete-Event Simulation Experiments

Simulation is an important resource for researchers in diverse fields. However, many researchers have found flaws in the methodology of published simulation studies and have described the state of the simulation community as being in a crisis of credibility. This work describes the project of the Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE), which addresses the issues that undermine credibility by automating the workflow in the execution of simulation studies. Automation reduces the number of opportunities for users to introduce error in the scientific process thereby improvingthe credibility of the final results. Automation also eases the job of simulation users and allows them to focus on the design of models and the analysis of results rather than on the complexities of the workflow.

Food choice in Siganus fuscescens: influence of macrophyte nutrient content and availability

Using multiple-choice feeding experiments, the selection of six species of macrophytes by the herbivorous rabbitfish Siganus fuscescens was examined. The rabbitfish showed distinct food choice in the laboratory; however, selection of macrophytes by S. fuscescens was not related to their absolute nutrient content (nitrogen, carbon, energy and ash free dry mass). Nutrient assimilation estimates showed that the macrophytes which were most preferred were those that S. fuscescens assimilated best. In S. fuscescens, the macrophytes that were preferred passed through the gut significantly faster than the less preferred species. Gut transit time had a significant effect on the absolute value of a food item in terms of net nutrient gain per unit time. This study showed that food value could be inferred from the absolute nutrient content of the macrophytes. Thus both the ability to assimilate nutrients as well as the absolute nutrient content of macrophytes must be quantified when assessing food value. (C) 2004 The Fisheries society of the British Isles.

Turning Passive Detection Systems into Field Experiments: An Application Using Wetland Fishes and Enclosures to Track Fine-Scale Movement and Habitat Choice

Understanding habitat selection and movement remains a key question in behavioral ecology. Yet, obtaining a sufficiently high spatiotemporal resolution of the movement paths of organisms remains a major challenge, despite recent technological advances. Observing fine-scale movement and habitat choice decisions in the field can prove to be difficult and expensive, particularly in expansive habitats such as wetlands. We describe the application of passive integrated transponder (PIT) systems to field enclosures for tracking detailed fish behaviors in an experimental setting. PIT systems have been applied to habitats with clear passageways, at fixed locations or in controlled laboratory and mesocosm settings, but their use in unconfined habitats and field-based experimental setups remains limited. In an Everglades enclosure, we continuously tracked the movement and habitat use of PIT-tagged centrarchids across three habitats of varying depth and complexity using multiple flatbed antennas for 14 days. Fish used all three habitats, with marked species-specific diel movement patterns across habitats, and short-lived movements that would be likely missed by other tracking techniques. Findings suggest that the application of PIT systems to field enclosures can be an insightful approach for gaining continuous, undisturbed and detailed movement data in unconfined habitats, and for experimentally manipulating both internal and external drivers of these behaviors.

German consumers' attitudes and preferences with regard to organic food and food from different origins

In dieser Studie geht es darum, ein umfassendes Bild bezüglich der Konsumenteneinstellungen, Präferenzen und Zahlungsbereitschaften für ökologisch produzierte Lebensmittel und Lebensmittel verschiedener Herkünfte in Deutschland zu erhalten. Obwohl die regionale Herkunft von Lebensmitteln nicht offiziell und einheitlich geregelt ist und keiner Zertifizierung unterliegt wie die ökologische Produktion von Lebensmitteln, zeigen nationale und internationale Studien gleichermaßen, dass Konsumenten bereit sind, mehr für regionale als für ökologisch produzierte Lebensmittel zu bezahlen. Zur Erreichung des Forschungsziels wurde ein Kaufexperiment in Kombination mit einer Konsumentenbefragung, bestehend aus Fragen zum generellen Einkaufsverhalten, zu Einstellungen gegenüber regionalen und ökologisch produzierten Lebensmitteln und zu soziodemographischen Informationen durchgeführt. Im Kaufexperiment wurden die Attribute Produktherkunft, Produktionsweise und Preis anhand vier verschiedener Produkte (Äpfel, Butter, Mehl und Steaks) untersucht. Die Befragung, einschließlich des Experimentes, war durch Interviewer eines Marktforschungsinstituts initiiert, computergestützt und von den Konsumenten selbständig zu erledigen. Das Ziel war es 80 Konsumenten in jedem der acht Befragungsorte in verschiedenen Regionen Deutschlands zu befragen. Zur Auswertung des Experiments wurden RPL-Modell geschätzt, die die Konsumentenpräferenzen für die zu untersuchenden Produktattribute aufzeigen und die Berechnung von Zahlungsbereitschaften ermöglichen. Für die Gesamtheit der Konsumenten war die regionale Herkunft von Lebensmitteln wichtiger als die ökologische Produktion. Außerdem wurden Produktalternativen, die aus der Region stammen, immer stärker präferiert als Produkte aus Deutschland, aus einem Nachbarland und einem außereuropäischen Land. Weiterhin zeigte die Studie, dass Konsumentenpräferenzen produkt- und regionsspezifisch sind. Folglich wird empfohlen, in zukünftigen Studien unterschiedlich Produkte bzw. Produktgruppen und Konsumenten verschiedener Regionen einzubeziehen. Die zunehmenden Präferenzen und Zahlungsbereitschaften der Konsumenten für regionale Lebensmittel deuteten sowohl in dieser Dissertation als auch in vielen anderen nationalen und internationalen Studien darauf hin, dass es ein großes Potential für einen regionalen Lebensmittelmarkt gibt. Aus diesem Grund wird Produzenten und Vermarktern von ökologischen sowie konventionellen Produkten empfohlen, verstärkt in die Entwicklung von regionalen Versorgungsketten zu investieren.

Decoherence models for discrete-time quantum walks and their application to neutral atom experiments

We discuss decoherence in discrete-time quantum walks in terms of a phenomenological model that distinguishes spin and spatial decoherence. We identify the dominating mechanisms that affect quantum-walk experiments realized with neutral atoms walking in an optical lattice. From the measured spatial distributions, we determine with good precision the amount of decoherence per step, which provides a quantitative indication of the quality of our quantum walks. In particular, we find that spin decoherence is the main mechanism responsible for the loss of coherence in our experiment. We also find that the sole observation of ballistic-instead of diffusive-expansion in position space is not a good indicator of the range of coherent delocalization. We provide further physical insight by distinguishing the effects of short- and long-time spin dephasing mechanisms. We introduce the concept of coherence length in the discrete-time quantum walk, which quantifies the range of spatial coherences. Unexpectedly, we find that quasi-stationary dephasing does not modify the local properties of the quantum walk, but instead affects spatial coherences. For a visual representation of decoherence phenomena in phase space, we have developed a formalism based on a discrete analogue of the Wigner function. We show that the effects of spin and spatial decoherence differ dramatically in momentum space.

Kernel machines for epilepsy diagnosis via EEG signal classification: A comparative study

Objective: We carry out a systematic assessment on a suite of kernel-based learning machines while coping with the task of epilepsy diagnosis through automatic electroencephalogram (EEG) signal classification. Methods and materials: The kernel machines investigated include the standard support vector machine (SVM), the least squares SVM, the Lagrangian SVM, the smooth SVM, the proximal SVM, and the relevance vector machine. An extensive series of experiments was conducted on publicly available data, whose clinical EEG recordings were obtained from five normal subjects and five epileptic patients. The performance levels delivered by the different kernel machines are contrasted in terms of the criteria of predictive accuracy, sensitivity to the kernel function/parameter value, and sensitivity to the type of features extracted from the signal. For this purpose, 26 values for the kernel parameter (radius) of two well-known kernel functions (namely. Gaussian and exponential radial basis functions) were considered as well as 21 types of features extracted from the EEG signal, including statistical values derived from the discrete wavelet transform, Lyapunov exponents, and combinations thereof. Results: We first quantitatively assess the impact of the choice of the wavelet basis on the quality of the features extracted. Four wavelet basis functions were considered in this study. Then, we provide the average accuracy (i.e., cross-validation error) values delivered by 252 kernel machine configurations; in particular, 40%/35% of the best-calibrated models of the standard and least squares SVMs reached 100% accuracy rate for the two kernel functions considered. Moreover, we show the sensitivity profiles exhibited by a large sample of the configurations whereby one can visually inspect their levels of sensitiveness to the type of feature and to the kernel function/parameter value. Conclusions: Overall, the results evidence that all kernel machines are competitive in terms of accuracy, with the standard and least squares SVMs prevailing more consistently. Moreover, the choice of the kernel function and parameter value as well as the choice of the feature extractor are critical decisions to be taken, albeit the choice of the wavelet family seems not to be so relevant. Also, the statistical values calculated over the Lyapunov exponents were good sources of signal representation, but not as informative as their wavelet counterparts. Finally, a typical sensitivity profile has emerged among all types of machines, involving some regions of stability separated by zones of sharp variation, with some kernel parameter values clearly associated with better accuracy rates (zones of optimality). (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.