Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Using Tables of Contents in MS Word 2010

A Table of Contents can be automatically generated and refreshed in a Word document so long as you use Heading styles (see the Heading Styles video). This video shows how to use Tables of Contents in the University’s Thesis Template. For best viewing Download the video.

Using Tables of Figures in MS Word 2010

A Table of Figures, Tables or Equations can easily be created and refreshed in Word. This video shows how to add captions to your tables, figures or equations; and how to refresh the Table of Figures and Table of Tables in the University’s Thesis Template. For best viewing Download the video.

Using Tables of Contents in MS Word 2011

A Table of Contents can be automatically generated and refreshed in a Word document so long as you use Heading styles (see the Heading Styles video). This video shows how to use Tables of Contents in the University’s thesis template. For best viewing Download the video.

Using Captions, Tables of Tables and Tables of Figures in MS Word 2011

A Table of Figures, Tables or Equations can easily be created and refreshed in Word. See how to add Captions to your tables, figures or equations; and how to refresh the Table of Figures and Table of Tables in the University’s thesis template. For best viewing Download the video.

Using Tables in MS Word 2011 (Mac) Manual

Tabulating data when writing your thesis will make it easier to read and understand. This manual shows you how to use tables in Word 2011 for Apple Mac.

Using Tables in MS Word 2010 (PC) Manual

Tabulating data when writing your thesis will make it easier to read and understand. This manual shows you how to use tables in Word 2010 for PC

Using Tables in MS Word 2013 (PC) Manual

Tabulating data when writing your thesis will make it easier to read and understand. This manual shows you how to use tables in Word 2013 for PC

Contingency management effects on delay discounting among patients receiving smoking cessation treatment

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