A microscopic simulation model to estimate bus rapid transit station bus capacity

The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) station is the interface between passengers and services. The station is crucial to line operation as it is typically the only location where buses can pass each other. Congestion may occur here when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the platform lane blocking the passing lane. Further, some systems include operation where express buses do not observe the station, resulting in a proportion of non-stopping buses. It is important to understand the operation of the station under this type of operation and its effect on BRT line capacity. This study uses microscopic traffic simulation modeling to treat the BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station bus capacity and BRT line bus capacity. First, the simulation model is developed for the limit state scenario and then a statistical model is defined and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of dwell time characteristics. A field survey was conducted to verify the parameters such as dwell time, clearance time and coefficient of variation of dwell time to obtain relevant station bus capacity. The proposed model for BRT bus capacity provides a better understanding of BRT line capacity and is useful to transit authorities in BRT planning, design and operation.

Planning for sustainability of non motorised public transport in a developing city

Most large cities around the world are undergoing rapid transport sector development to cater for increased urbanization. Subsequently the issues of mobility, access equity, congestion, operational safety and above all environmental sustainability are becoming increasingly crucial in transport planning and policy making. The popular response in addressing these issues has been demand management, through improvement of motorised public transport (MPT) modes (bus, train, tram) and non-motorized transport (NMT) modes (walk, bicycle); improved fuel technology. Relatively little attention has however been given to another readily available and highly sustainable component of the urban transport system, non-motorized public transport (NMPT) such as the pedicab that operates on a commercial basis and serves as an NMT taxi; and has long standing history in many Asian cities; relatively stable in existence in Latin America; and reemerging and expanding in Europe, North America and Australia. Consensus at policy level on the apparent benefits, costs and management approach for NMPT integration has often been a major transport planning problem. Within this context, this research attempts to provide a more complete analysis of the current existence rationale and possible future, or otherwise, of NMPT as a regular public transport system. The analytical process is divided into three major stages. Stage 1 reviews the status and role condition of NMPT as regular public transport on a global scale- in developing cities and developed cities. The review establishes the strong ongoing and future potential role of NMPT in major developing cities. Stage 2 narrows down the status review to a case study city of a developing country in order to facilitate deeper role review and status analysis of the mode. Dhaka, capital city of Bangladesh, has been chosen due to its magnitude of NMPT presence. The review and analysis reveals the multisectoral and dominant role of NMPT in catering for the travel need of Dhaka transport users. The review also indicates ad-hoc, disintegrated policy planning in management of NMPT and the need for a planning framework to facilitate balanced integration between NMPT and MT in future. Stage 3 develops an integrated, multimodal planning framework (IMPF), based on a four-step planning process. This includes defining the purpose and scope of the planning exercise, determining current deficiencies and preferred characteristics for the proposed IMPF, selection of suitable techniques to address the deficiencies and needs of the transport network while laying out the IMPF and finally, development of a delivery plan for the IMPF based on a selected layout technique and integration approach. The output of the exercise is a planning instrument (decision tool) that can be used to assign a road hierarchy in order to allocate appropriate traffic to appropriate network type, particularly to facilitate the operational balance between MT and NMT. The instrument is based on a partial restriction approach of motorised transport (MT) and NMT, structured on the notion of functional hierarchy approach, and distributes/prioritises MT and NMT such that functional needs of the network category is best complemented. The planning instrument based on these processes and principles offers a six-level road hierarchy with a different composition of network-governing attributes and modal priority, for the current Dhaka transport network, in order to facilitate efficient integration of NMT with MT. A case study application of the instrument on a small transport network of Dhaka also demonstrates the utility, flexibility and adoptability of the instrument in logically allocating corridors with particular positions in the road hierarchy paradigm. Although the tool is useful in enabling balanced distribution of NMPT with MT at different network levels, further investigation is required with reference to detailed modal variations, scales and locations of a network to further generalise the framework application.

Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

Emergency Health Services (EHS) : demand and service delivery models. monograph 3 : patients’ reasons and perceptions

Executive Summary Emergency health is a critical component of Australia’s health system and emergency departments (EDs) are increasingly congested from growing demand and blocked access to inpatient beds. The Emergency Health Services Queensland (EHSQ) study aims to identify the factors driving increased demand for emergency health and to evaluate strategies which may safely reduce the future demand growth. This monograph addresses the perspectives of users of both ambulance services and EDs. The research reported here aimed to identify the perspectives of users of emergency health services, both ambulance services and public hospital Emergency Departments and to identify the factors that they took into consideration when exercising their choice of location for acute health care. A cross-sectional survey design was used involving a survey of patients or their carers presenting to the EDs of a stratified sample of eight hospitals. A specific purpose questionnaire was developed based on a novel theoretical model which had been derived from analysis of the literature (Monograph 1). Two survey versions were developed: one for adult patients (self-complete); and one for children (to be completed by parents/guardians). The questionnaires measured perceptions of social support, health status, illness severity, self-efficacy; beliefs and attitudes towards ED and ambulance services; reasons for using these services, and actions taken prior to the service request. The survey was conducted at a stratified sample of eight hospitals representing major cities (four), inner regional (two) and outer regional and remote (two). Due to practical limitations, data were collected for ambulance and ED users within hospital EDs, while patients were waiting for or under treatment. A sample size quota was determined for each ED based on their 2009/10 presentation volumes. The data collection was conducted by four members of the research team and a group of eight interviewers between March and May 2011 (corresponding to autumn season). Of the total of 1608 patients in all eight emergency departments the interviewers were able to approach 1361 (85%) patients and seek their consent to participate in the study. In total, 911 valid surveys were available for analysis (response rate= 67%). These studies demonstrate that patients elected to attend hospital EDs in a considered fashion after weighing up alternatives and there is no evidence of deliberate or ill-informed misuse. • Patients attending ED have high levels of social support and self-efficacy that speak to the considered and purposeful nature of the exercise of choice. • About one third of patients have new conditions while two thirds have chronic illnesses • More than half the attendees (53.1%) had consulted a healthcare professional prior to making the decision. • The decision to seek urgent care at an ED was mostly constructed around the patient’s perception of the urgency and severity of their illness, reinforced by a strong perception that the hospital ED was the correct location for them (better specialised staff, better care for my condition, other options not as suitable). • 33% of the respondent held private hospital insurance but nevertheless attended a public hospital ED. Similarly patients exercised considered and rational judgements in their choice to seek help from the ambulance service. • The decision to call for ambulance assistance was based on a strong perception about the severity of the illness (too severe to use other means of transport) and that other options were not considered appropriate. • The decision also appeared influenced by a perception that the ambulance provided appropriate access to the ED which was considered most appropriate for their particular condition (too severe to go elsewhere, all facilities in one spot, better specialised and better care). • In 43.8% of cases a health care professional advised use of the ambulance. • Only a small number of people perceived that ambulance should be freely available regardless of severity or appropriateness. These findings confirm a growing understanding that the choice of professional emergency health care services is not made lightly but rather made by reasonable people exercising a judgement which is influenced by public awareness of the risks of acute health and which is most often informed by health professionals. It is also made on the basis of a rational weighing up of alternatives and a deliberate and considered choice to seek assistance from a service which the patient perceived was most appropriate to their needs at that time. These findings add weight to dispensing with public perceptions that ED and ambulance congestion is a result of inappropriate choice by patients. The challenge for health services is to better understand the patient’s needs and to design and validate services that meet those needs. The failure of our health system to do so should not be grounds for blaming the patient, claiming inappropriate patient choices.

A methodological framework for benchmarking smart transport cities

Besides responding to challenges of rapid urbanization and growing traffic congestion, the development of smart transport systems has attracted much attention in recent times. Many promising initiatives have emerged over the years. Despite these initiatives, there is still a lack of understanding about an appropriate definition of smart transport system. As such, it is challenging to identify the appropriate indicators of ‘smartness’. This paper proposes a comprehensive and practical framework to benchmark cities according to the smartness in their transportation systems. The proposed methodology was illustrated using a set of data collected from 26 cities across the world through web search and contacting relevant transport authorities and agencies. Results showed that London, Seattle and Sydney were among the world’s top smart transport cities. In particular, Seattle and Paris ranked high in smart private transport services while London and Singapore scored high on public transport services. London also appeared to be the smartest in terms of emergency transport services. The key value of the proposed innovative framework lies in a comparative analysis among cities, facilitating city-to-city learning.

Modeling Bus Rapid Transit station bus queuing for Bus Rapid Transit station bus operation analysis

Stations on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines ordinarily control line capacity because they act as bottlenecks. At stations with passing lanes, congestion may occur when buses maneuvering into and out of the platform stopping lane interfere with bus flow, or when a queue of buses forms upstream of the station blocking inflow. We contend that, as bus inflow to the station area approaches capacity, queuing will become excessive in a manner similar to operation of a minor movement on an unsignalized intersection. This analogy is used to treat BRT station operation and to analyze the relationship between station queuing and capacity. In the first of three stages, we conducted microscopic simulation modeling to study and analyze operating characteristics of the station under near steady state conditions through output variables of capacity, degree of saturation and queuing. A mathematical model was then developed to estimate the relationship between average queue and degree of saturation and calibrated for a specified range of controlled scenarios of mean and coefficient of variation of dwell time. Finally, simulation results were calibrated and validated.

Bike share's impact on car use : evidence from the United States, Great Britain, and Australia

There are currently more than 400 cities operating bike share programs. Purported benefits of bike share programs include flexible mobility, physical activity, reduced congestion, emissions and fuel use. Implicit or explicit in the calculation of program benefits are assumptions regarding the modes of travel replaced by bike share journeys. This paper examines the degree to which car trips are replaced by bike share, through an examination of survey and trip data from bike share programs in Melbourne, Brisbane, Washing, D.C., London, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. A secondary and unique component of this analysis examines motor vehicle support services required for bike share fleet rebalancing and maintenance. These two components are then combined to estimate bike share’s overall contribution to changes in vehicle kilometres traveled. The results indicate that the estimated mean reduction in car use due to bike share is at least twice the distance covered by operator support vehicles, with the exception of London, in which the relationship is reversed, largely due to a low car mode substitution rate. As bike share programs mature, evaluation of their effectiveness in reducing car use may become increasingly important. This paper reveals that by increasing the convenience of bike share relative to car use and by improving perceptions of safety, the capacity of bike share programs to reduce vehicle trips and yield overall net benefits will be enhanced. Researchers can adapt the analytical approach proposed in this paper to assist in the evaluation of current and future bike share programs.

Hybrid model for motorway travel time estimation considering increased detector spacing

Travel time estimation and prediction on motorways has long been a topic of research. Prediction modeling generally assumes that the estimation is perfect. No matter how good is the prediction modeling- the errors in estimation can significantly deteriorate the accuracy and reliability of the prediction. Models have been proposed to estimate travel time from loop detector data. Generally, detectors are closely spaced (say 500m) and travel time can be estimated accurately. However, detectors are not always perfect, and even during normal running conditions few detectors malfunction, resulting in increase in the spacing between the functional detectors. Under such conditions, error in the travel time estimation is significantly large and generally unacceptable. This research evaluates the in-practice travel time estimation model during different traffic conditions. It is observed that the existing models fail to accurately estimate travel time during large detector spacing and congestion shoulder periods. Addressing this issue, an innovative Hybrid model that only considers loop data for travel time estimation is proposed. The model is tested using simulation and is validated with real Bluetooth data from Pacific Motorway Brisbane. Results indicate that during non free flow conditions and larger detector spacing Hybrid model provides significant improvement in the accuracy of travel time estimation.

Product ecosystems : an emerging methodological approach to study the implementation of disruptive innovations : the case of the CityCar

The car has arguably had more influence on our lifestyle and urban environment than any other consumer product; allowing unprecedented freedom for living, working and recreation where and when we choose. However, problems of pollution, congestion, road trauma, inefficient land use and social inequality are associated with car use. Despite 100 years of design and technology refinements, the aforementioned problems are significant and persistent: many argue that resolving these problems requires a fundamental redesign of the car. Redesigned vehicles have been proposed such as the MIT CityCar and others such as the Renault Twizy, commercialized. None however have successfully brought about significant change and the study of disruptive innovation offers an explanation for this. Disruptive innovation, by definition, disrupts a market. It also disrupts the product ecosystem. The existing product ecosystem has co-evolved to support the conventional car and is not optimized for the new design: which will require a redesigned ecosystem to support it. A literature review identifies a lack of methodology for identifying the components of product ecosystems and the changes required for disruptive innovation implementation. This paper proposes such a methodology based on Design Thinking, Actor Network Theory, Disruptive Innovation and the CityCar scenarios.

The Implications of Activity Based Funding for Emergency Departments : A Comprehensive Literature Review

Executive Summary Emergency Departments (EDs) locally, nationally and internationally are becoming increasingly busy. Within this context, it can be challenging to deliver a health service that is safe, of high quality and cost-effective. Whilst various models are described within the literature that aim to measure ED ‘work’ or ‘activity’, they are often not linked to a measure of costs to provide such activity. It is important for hospital and ED managers to understand and apply this link so that optimal staffing and financial resourcing can be justifiably sought. This research is timely given that Australia has moved towards a national Activity Based Funding (ABF) model for ED activity. ABF is believed to increase transparency of care and fairness (i.e. equal work receives equal pay). ABF involves a person-, performance- or activity-based payment system, and thus a move away from historical “block payment” models that do not incentivise efficiency and quality. The aim of the Statewide Workforce and Activity-Based Funding Modelling Project in Queensland Emergency Departments (SWAMPED) is to identify and describe best practice Emergency Department (ED) workforce models within the current context of ED funding that operates under an ABF model. The study is comprised of five distinct phases. This monograph (Phase 1) comprises a systematic review of the literature that was completed in June 2013. The remaining phases include a detailed survey of Queensland hospital EDs’ resource levels, activity and operational models of care, development of new resource models, development of a user-friendly modelling interface for ED mangers, and production of a final report that identifies policy implications. The anticipated deliverable outcome of this research is the development of an ABF based Emergency Workforce Modelling Tool that will enable ED managers to profile both their workforce and operational models of care. Additionally, the tool will assist with the ability to more accurately inform adequate staffing numbers required in the future, inform planning of expected expenditures and be used for standardisation and benchmarking across similar EDs. Summary of the Findings Within the remit of this review of the literature, the main findings include: 1. EDs are becoming busier and more congested Rising demand, barriers to ED throughput and transitions of care all contribute to ED congestion. In addition requests by organisational managers and the community require continued broadening of the scope of services required of the ED and further increases in demand. As the population live longer with more lifestyle diseases their propensity to require ED care continues to grow. 2. Various models of care within EDs exist Models often vary to account for site specific characteritics to suit staffing profile, ED geographical location (e.g. metropolitan or rural site), and patient demographic profile (e.g. paediatrics, older persons, ethnicity). Existing and new models implemented within EDs often depend on the target outcome requiring change. Generally this is focussed on addressing issues at the input, throughput or output areas of the ED. Even with models targeting similar demographic or illness, the structure and process elements underpinning the model can vary, which can impact on outcomes and variance to the patient and carer experience between and within EDs. Major models of care to manage throughput inefficiencies include: A. Workforce Models of Care focus on the appropriate level of staffing for a given workload to provide prompt, timely and clinically effective patient care within an emergency care setting. The studies reviewed suggest that the early involvement of senior medical decision maker and/or specialised nursing roles such as Emergency Nurse Practitioners and Clinical Initiatives Nurse, primary contact or extended scope Allied Health Practitioners can facilitate patient flow and improve key indicators such as length of stay and reducing the number of those who did not wait to be seen amongst others. B. Operational Models of Care within EDs focus on mechanisms for streaming (e.g. fast-tracking) or otherwise grouping patient care based on acuity and complexity to assist with minimising any throughput inefficiencies. While studies support the positive impact of these models in general, it appears that they are most effective when they are adequately resourced. 3. Various methods of measuring ED activity exist Measuring ED activity requires careful consideration of models of care and staffing profile. Measuring activity requires the ability to account for factors including: patient census, acuity, LOS, intensity of intervention, department skill-mix plus an adjustment for non-patient care time. 4. Gaps in the literature Continued ED growth calls for new and innovative care delivery models that are safe, clinically effective and cost effective. New roles and stand-alone service delivery models are often evaluated in isolation without considering the global and economic impact on staffing profiles. Whilst various models of accounting for and measuring health care activity exist, costing studies and cost effectiveness studies are lacking for EDs making accurate and reliable assessments of care models difficult. There is a necessity to further understand, refine and account for measures of ED complexity that define a workload upon which resources and appropriate staffing determinations can be made into the future. There is also a need for continued monitoring and comprehensive evaluation of newly implemented workforce modelling tools. This research acknowledges those gaps and aims to: • Undertake a comprehensive and integrated whole of department workforce profiling exercise relative to resources in the context of ABF. • Inform workforce requirements based on traditional quantitative markers (e.g. volume and acuity) combined with qualitative elements of ED models of care; • Develop a comprehensive and validated workforce calculation tool that can be used to better inform or at least guide workforce requirements in a more transparent manner.

An exploration into retrofitting cities with natural design elements - learning from the city of Berlin, Germany

Natural design features in the built environment or biophilic elements are emerging as a potential response to the challenges of climate change, urbanisation and population pressures which have invited issues such as rising urban heat island effect, rising pollution, increased congestion, among others. This concept of living cities was made popular by Professor Tim Beatley in his book titled ‘Biophilic Urbanism’. Evidence of biophilic urbanism can be seen in some cities from around the globe since decoupling environmental pressures from future development is a priority on many agendas. Berlin is an example of a modern economy that has adopted an ecological sustainable development approach to reduce environmental degradation while driving innovation and employment.

A multi-hierarchical motorway ramp signalling strategy

Ramp signalling is an access control for motorways, in which a traffic signal is placed at on-ramps to regulate the rate of vehicles entering the motorway and thus to preserve the motorway capacity. In general, ramp signalling algorithms fall into two categories: local control and coordinated control by their effective scope. Coordinated ramp signalling strategies make use of measurements from the entire motorway network to operate individual ramp signals for the optimal performances at the network level. This study proposes a multi-hierarchical strategy for coordinated ramp signalling. The strategy is structured in two layers. At the higher layer with a longer update interval, coordination group is assembled and disassembled based on the location of high-risk breakdown flow. At the lower layer with a shorter update interval, individual ramps are hired to serve the coordination and are also released based on the prevailing congestion level on the ramp. This strategy is modelled and applied to the northbound Pacific Motorway micro-simulation platform (AIMSUN). The simulation results show an effective congestion mitigation of the proposed strategy.

Environmental indicators for sustainable road development and operation

Road construction, maintenance and operation are activities that impact the environment by way of energy use, resource consumption and emission. Components such as construction material, transportation, street lighting, rolling resistance, traffic congestion during works, albedo and end-of-life processing impact the environment at different phases of the life of a road. With a view to promote sustainable development, a few sustainability rating schemes, e.g. Infrastructure Sustainability and Invest (Australia), Envision and Greenroads (USA), and CEEQUAL (UK) have been developed, that can assess road projects. These schemes address environmental areas such as: energy and emission, land, water, materials, discharges into surroundings, waste and ecology as factors for sustainable development. This paper assesses different rating schemes based on a defined comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) system boundary for road projects to identify different environmental indicators that address sustainable road development and operation. The findings indicate that new indicators are required to address different environmental components during the operation phase of roads.

Life cycle analysis for sustainability assessment of road projects

Road infrastructure has been considered as one of the most expensive and extensive infrastructure assets of the built environment globally. This asset also impacts the natural environment significantly during different phases of life e.g. construction, use, maintenance and end-of-life. The growing emphasis for sustainable development to meet the needs of future generations requires mitigation of the environmental impacts of road infrastructure during all phases of life e.g. construction, operation and end-of-life disposal (as required). Life-cycle analysis (LCA), a method of quantification of all stages of life, has recently been studied to explore all the environmental components of road projects due to limitations of generic environmental assessments. The LCA ensures collection and assessment of the inputs and outputs relating to any potential environmental factor of any system throughout its life. However, absence of a defined system boundary covering all potential environmental components restricts the findings of the current LCA studies. A review of the relevant published LCA studies has identified that environmental components such as rolling resistance of pavement, effect of solar radiation on pavement(albedo), traffic congestion during construction, and roadway lighting & signals are not considered by most of the studies. These components have potentially higher weightings for environment damage than several commonly considered components such as materials, transportation and equipment. This paper presents the findings of literature review, and suggests a system boundary model for LCA study of road infrastructure projects covering potential environmental components.

Sustainability outcomes of infrastructure sustainability rating schemes for road projects

The construction and operation of infrastructure assets can have significant impact on society and the region. Using a sustainability assessment framework can be an effective means to build sustainability aspects into the design, construction and operation of infrastructure assets. The conventional evaluation processes and procedures for infrastructure projects do not necessarily measure the qualitative/quantitative effectiveness of all aspects of sustainability: environment, social wellbeing and economy. As a result, a few infrastructure sustainability rating schemes have been developed with a view to assess the level of sustainability attained in the infrastructure projects. These include: Infrastructure Sustainability (Australia); CEEQUAL (UK); and Envision (USA). In addition, road sector specific sustainability rating schemes such as Greenroads (USA) and Invest (Australia) have also been developed. These schemes address several aspects of sustainability with varying emphasis (weightings) on areas such as: use of resources; emission, pollution and waste; ecology; people and place; management and governance; and innovation. The attainment of sustainability of an infrastructure project depends largely on addressing the whole-of-life environmental issues. This study has analysed the rating schemes’ coverage of different environmental components for the road infrastructure under the five phases of a project: material, construction, use, maintenance and end-of-life. This is based on a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) system boundary. The findings indicate that there is a need for the schemes to consider key (high impact) life cycle environmental components such as traffic congestion during construction, rolling resistance due to surface roughness and structural stiffness of the pavement, albedo, lighting, and end-of-life management (recycling) to deliver sustainable road projects.