Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Estudos de distúrbios ionosféricos propagantes de larga escala (LSTID’S) na região equatorial durante grandes tempestades magnéticas: estudo de casos

The Ionospheric Disturbances – TIDs – are irregularities on the ionospheric plasma propagating in speeds in the order of tens to a few hundreds of meters per second. This present study detected and characterized the TIDs of LSTIDs (Large Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance) type at low latitudes during intense geomagnetic storms and its propagation over the Brazilian sector. This work also shows as being the first to report systematically propagation of gravity waves over Natal. For this purpose, we used ionospheric records obtained from type of digisonde CADI (Canadiam Advanced Digital Ionosonde) located in Natal and the type DSP (Digisonde Portable Souder) located in Cachoeira Paulista, Fortaleza and São Luis, whereupon we used a dataset of 12 years collected by INPE (National Institute of Space Research). In this study, both calm days, that preceded the storms, and the geomagnetically disturbed days were related during the years 2000 and 1012, which cover a period of maximum and minimum solar activity. And it is presented the variations that happened in the electron density from region F of the ionosphere over the Brazilian sector, especially near the Equator (Natal, Fortaleza and São Luis), caused by ionospheric disturbances in the equatorial region during intense geomagnetic storms, because, as we know of the literature in this area, this phenomenon contributes positively to the emergence of LSTIDs in the auroral region, which may move to the equatorial region where a few cases have been documented and studied systematically. From the observation of signatures if TIDs in ionogram records, a study of the morphology of these events was performed and compared with the main characteristics of the wave of this phenomenon during great magnetic storms, i.e., DST <(-200 nT) and KP > 6. Thus, we obtained the main characteristics of TIDs over our region, i.e., period, vertical wavelength, phase and propagation speed, as well as the delay of these disturbances compared to the beginning of the magnetic storms to the Brazilian Sector.

Análise de tendência e caracterização sazonal e interanual da evapotranspiração de referência para o sudoeste da amazônia brasileira: Acre, Brasil

The objective of this research was to investigate monthly climatological, seasonal, annual and interdecadal of the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) in Acre state in order to better understand its spatial and temporal variability and identify possible trends in the region. The study was conducted with data from Rio Branco municipalities, the state capital, Tarauacá and Cruzeiro do Sul considering a 30-year period (1985-2014), from monthly data from weather stations surface of the National Institute of Meteorology. The methodology was held, first, the consistency of meteorological data. Thus, it was made the gap filling in the time series by means of multivariate techniques. Subsequently were performed statistical tests trend (Mann-Kendall) and homogeneity, by Sen's estimator of the magnitude of this trend is estimated, as well as computational algorithms containing parametric and non-parametric tests for two samples to identify from that year the trend has become significant. Finally, analysis of variance technique (ANOVA) was adopted in order to verify whether there were significant differences in average annual evapotranspiration between locations. The indirect method of Penman-Montheith parameterized by FAO was used to calculate the ETo. The results of this work through examination of the descriptive statistics showed that the ETo the annual average was 3.80, 2.92 and 2.86 mm day-1 year, to Rio Branco, Tarauacá and Cruzeiro do Sul, respectively. Featuring quite remarkable seasonal pattern with a minimum in June and a maximum in October, with Rio Branco to town one with the strongest signal (amplitudes) on the other hand, the Southern Cross presented the highest variability among the studied locations. By ANOVA it was found that the average annual statistically different for a significance level of 1% between locations, but the annual average between Cruzeiro do Sul and Tarauacá no statistically significant differences. For the three locations, the 2000s was the one with the highest ETo values associated with warmer waters of the North Atlantic basin and the 80s to lower values, associated with cooler waters of this basin. By analyzing the Mann-kendall and Sen estimator test, there was a trend of increasing the seasonal reference evapotranspiration (fall, winter and spring) on the order of 0.11 mm per decade and that from the years of 1990, 1996 and 2001 became statistically significant to the localities of Cruzeiro do Sul Tarauacá and Rio Branco, respectively. For trend analysis of meteorological parameters was observed positive trend in the 5% level of significance, for average temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation.

Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.

Zoneamento agroclimático da palma forrageira (Opuntia sp.) para o estado da Paraíba

The cactus pear has become over the years an important forage alternative for brazilian semiarid region, especially during long periods of drought. Despite its importance for agriculture, its cultivation has dispensed basic crop practices and fundamentals technical-scientific basis about its climatic requirements. Thus, the main objective of this study was to elaborate the agroclimatic zoning of cactus pear (Opuntia sp.) for the state of Paraíba. The agroclimatic zoning of cactus pear was based on climatic indicators outlined in the literature and climatological data of precipitation and temperature (mean, maximum, and minimum) from 97 locations in the state of Paraíba. According to the results, the region of ‘Borborema’ is the most favorable for the cultivation of cactus pear. The regions of ‘Agreste’, ‘Sertão’, and coastal part of Litoral may be used but with restrictions. However, the cultivation of cactus pear is recommended throughout the state of Paraíba, except the coastal part of the Litoral and the region around Areia. In both cases, the inability is due to excessive precipitation.

Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.

ProgettoCNR Energy+: metodo di calcolo semplificato per la scomposizione della radiazione solare globale e la stima della produzione da fotovoltaico

Scopo del presente lavoro è la presentazione del codice di calcolo semplificato adoperato nella sezione “Simulatore fotovoltaico” presente sul portale www.energia.cnr.it del progetto CNR ENERGY+. Utilizzando i valori reali di radiazione solare misurati dalle stazioni meteorologiche installate presso alcune sedi del CNR il codice, con appropriati algoritmi, generala scomposizione della radiazione sul piano orizzontale e su superfici inclinate e variamente orientate, in modo da pervenire alla potenza prodotta da un ipotetico impianto fotovoltaico posto sullo stesso sito di ubicazione della stazione.

Agroclimatic classification: numerical- taxonomic procedures - a review.

The paper catalogues the procedures and steps involved in agroclimatic classification. These vary from conventional descriptive methods to modern computer-based numerical techniques. There are three mutually independent numerical classification techniques, namely Ordination, Cluster analysis, and Minimum spanning tree; and under each technique there are several forms of grouping techniques existing. The vhoice of numerical classification procedure differs with the type of data set. In the case of numerical continuous data sets with booth positive and negative values, the simple and least controversial procedures are unweighted pair group method (UPGMA) and weighted pair group method (WPGMA) under clustering techniques with similarity measure obtained either from Gower metric or standardized Euclidean metric. Where the number of attributes are large, these could be reduced to fewer new attributes defined by the principal components or coordinates by ordination technique. The first few components or coodinates explain the maximum variance in the data matrix. These revided attributes are less affected by noise in the data set. It is possible to check misclassifications using minimum spanning tree.

Instalação de um pomar de kiwi em Pontevedra, Galiza

Mestrado em Engenharia Agronómica - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Probabilistic methods for seasonal forecasting in a changing climate: Cox-type regression models.

For climate risk management, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) are an important source of information. They are ideally suited to compare probabilistic forecasts of primary (e.g. rainfall) or secondary data (e.g. crop yields). Summarised as CDFs, such forecasts allow an easy quantitative assessment of possible, alternative actions. Although the degree of uncertainty associated with CDF estimation could influence decisions, such information is rarely provided. Hence, we propose Cox-type regression models (CRMs) as a statistical framework for making inferences on CDFs in climate science. CRMs were designed for modelling probability distributions rather than just mean or median values. This makes the approach appealing for risk assessments where probabilities of extremes are often more informative than central tendency measures. CRMs are semi-parametric approaches originally designed for modelling risks arising from time-to-event data. Here we extend this original concept beyond time-dependent measures to other variables of interest. We also provide tools for estimating CDFs and surrounding uncertainty envelopes from empirical data. These statistical techniques intrinsically account for non-stationarities in time series that might be the result of climate change. This feature makes CRMs attractive candidates to investigate the feasibility of developing rigorous global circulation model (GCM)-CRM interfaces for provision of user-relevant forecasts. To demonstrate the applicability of CRMs, we present two examples for El Ni ? no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-based forecasts: the onset date of the wet season (Cairns, Australia) and total wet season rainfall (Quixeramobim, Brazil). This study emphasises the methodological aspects of CRMs rather than discussing merits or limitations of the ENSO-based predictors.

Impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre o controle biológico de doenças de plantas.

2009

Novo sistema de medidas de evaporacao para o tangue classe A.

O estudo aborda o projeto de construcao e analise de desempenho de um novo sistema de medida evaporometrica que e acoplado a um tanque classe "A" padrao convencional, dando-se ao sistema o nome "Tanque Classe A Modificado". A viabilidade do sistema foi testada contra medidas simultaneas com o sistema classico (tanque classe "A" padrao e micrometro), revelando, atraves de testes estatisticos, que o Tanque Classe "A" Modificado pode substituir com vantagens o sistema classico, minimizando os erros de leitura que sao cometidos mesmo quando se dispoe de pessoal qualificado para esta operacao e permitindo tambem a realizacao de medidas evaporometricas com boa aproximacao em dias de chuva.

Atlas climático da Região Sul do Brasil: Estados do Paraná, Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul.

Este atlas é dividido em quatro principais seções, sendo a primeira a descrição conceitual e metodológica das variáveis meteorológicas. A segunda seção compreende uma análise, por meio de gráficos, das principais características climáticas dos mais diversos ambientes regionais. Em seguida, estão disponíveis, na forma de tabelas, os dados mensais, estacionais e anuais que podem ser usados para outros fins, conforme a necessidade do leitor. Por último, ele apresenta mais de duas centenas de mapas que revelam, de forma ilustrada e de fácil visualização, um conjunto de variáveis de temperatura, precipitação pluvial, classificações climáticas, entre outras informações.