Spatial variability of marine climate change impacts in the North Atlantic

There is an accumulating body of evidence to suggest that many marine ecosystems in the North Atlantic, both physically and biologically are responding to changes in regional climate caused predominately by the warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SST) and to a varying degree by the modification of oceanic currents, precipitation regimes and wind patterns. The biological manifestations of rising SST and oceanographic changes have variously taken the form of biogeographical, phenological, physiological and community changes. For example, during the last 40 years there has been a northerly movement of warmer water plankton by 10 degree latitude in the north-east Atlantic and a similar retreat of colder water plankton to the north. This geographical movement is much more pronounced than any documented terrestrial study, presumably due to advective processes playing an important role. Other research has shown that the plankton community in the North Sea has responded to changes in SST by adjusting their seasonality (in some cases a shift in seasonal cycles of over six weeks has been detected), but more importantly the response to climate warming varied between different functional groups and trophic levels, leading to mismatch. Therefore, while it has been documented that marine ecosystems in certain regions of the Atlantic have undergone some conspicuous changes over the last few decades it is not known whether this is a pan-oceanic homogenous response. Using these two most prominent responses and/or indicative signals of pelagic ecosystems to hydro-climatic change, changes in species phenology and the biogeographical movement of populations, we attempt to identify vulnerable regional areas in terms of particularly rapid and marked change.

Seasonality and interannual variability of the European Slope Current from 20 years of altimeter data compared with in situ measurements

The European Slope Current (SC) is a major section of the warm poleward flow from the Atlantic to the Arctic, which also moderates the exchange of heat, salt, nutrients and carbon between the deep ocean and the European shelf seas. The mean structure of the geostrophic flow, seasonality, interannual variability and long-term trend of SC are appraised with an unprecedented continuous 20-year satellite altimeter dataset. Comparisons with long term in situ data showed a maximum correlation of r2=0.51 between altimeter and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), with similar results for drogued buoy data. Mean geostrophic currents were appraised more comprehensively than previous attempts, and the paths of 4 branches of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and positions of 5 eddies in the region were derived quantitatively. A consistent seasonal cycle in the flow of the SC was found at all 8 sections along the European shelf slope, with maximum poleward flow in the winter and minimum in the summer. The seasonal difference in the altimetry current speed amounted to ~8-10 cm s-1 at the northern sections, but only ~5 cm s-1 on the Bay of Biscay slopes. This extended altimeter dataset indicates significant regional and seasonal variations, and has revealed new insights into the interannual variability of the SC. It is shown that there is a peak poleward flow at most positions along a ~2000 km stretch of the continental slope from Portugal to Scotland during 1995-1997, but this did not clearly relate to the extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the winter of 1995-1996. The speed of the SC exhibited a long term decreasing trend of ~1% per year. By contrast the NAC showed no significant trend over the 20-year period. Major changes in the NAC occurred three times, and these changes followed decreases in the NAO index.

Nanoplankton and picoplankton in the Western English Channel: abundance and seasonality from 2007–2013

The nano- and picoplankton community at Station L4 in the Western English Channel was studied between 2007 and 2013 by flow cytometry to quantify abundance and investigate seasonal cycles within these communities. Nanoplankton included both photosynthetic and heterotrophic eukaryotic single-celled organisms while the picoplankton included picoeukaryote phytoplankton, Synechococcus sp. cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria. A Box–Jenkins Transfer Function climatology analysis of surface data revealed that Synechococcus sp., cryptophytes, and heterotrophic flagellates had bimodal annual cycles. Nanoeukaryotes and both high and low nucleic acid-containing bacteria (HNA and LNA, respectively) groups exhibited unimodal annual cycles. Phaeocystis sp., whilst having clearly defined abundance maxima in spring was not detectable the rest of the year. Coccolithophores exhibited a weak seasonal cycle, with abundance peaks in spring and autumn. Picoeukaryotes did not exhibit a discernable seasonal cycle at the surface. Timings of maximum group abundance varied through the year. Phaeocystis sp. and heterotrophic flagellates peaked in April/May. Nanoeukaryotes and HNA bacteria peaked in June/July and had relatively high abundance throughout the summer. Synechococcus sp., cryptophytes and LNA bacteria all peaked from mid to late September. The transfer function model techniques used represent a useful means of identifying repeating annual cycles in time series data with the added ability to detect trends and harmonic terms at different time scales from months to decades.