The implications of climate change for the water environment in England

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions.

Building collaborative partnerships for climate change action in Maputo, Mozambique

The authors examine partnerships as a policy strategy for climate change governance in cities in the Global South. Partnerships offer the opportunity to link the actions of diverse actors operating at different scales and, thus, they may be flexible enough to deal with uncertain futures and changing development demands. However, simultaneously, partnerships may lack effectiveness in delivering action at the local level, and may constitute a strategy for some actors to legitimate their objectives in spite of the interests of other partners. Engaging with the specific example of urban governance in Maputo, Mozambique, the authors present an analysis of potential partnerships in this context, in relation to the actors that are willing and able to intervene to deliver climate change action. What, they ask, are the challenges to achieving common objectives in partnerships from the perspective of local residents in informal settlements? The analysis describes a changing context of climate change governance in the city, in which the prospects of access to international finance for climate change adaptation are moving institutional actors towards engaging with participatory processes at the local level. However, the analysis suggests a question about the extent to which local communities are actually perceived as actors with legitimate interests who can intervene in partnerships, and whether their interests are recognised.

The global-scale impacts of climate change: the QUEST-GSI project

This paper introduces the special issue of Climatic Change on the QUEST-GSI project, a global-scale multi-sectoral assessment of the impacts of climate change. The project used multiple climate models to characterise plausible climate futures with consistent baseline climate and socio-economic data and consistent assumptions, together with a suite of global-scale sectoral impacts models. It estimated impacts across sectors under specific SRES emissions scenarios, and also constructed functions relating impact to change in global mean surface temperature. This paper summarises the objectives of the project and its overall methodology, outlines how the project approach has been used in subsequent policy-relevant assessments of future climate change under different emissions futures, and summarises the general lessons learnt in the project about model validation and the presentation of multi-sector, multi-region impact assessments and their associated uncertainties to different audiences.

Action on climate change : the health risks of procrastinating

Objective: The world's climate will continue to change because of human influence. This is expected to affect health, mostly adversely. We need to compare the projected health effects in Australia arising from differing climate change scenarios to inform greenhouse gas emission (mitigation) policy.

Methods: We estimated health effects in Australia (heatwave mortality, dengue transmission regions) around 2100 under various greenhouse gas scenarios: "strong policy action" (efforts made now to reduce emissions) and "no policy action" (emissions continue at present high levels with no climate change-specific policies).

Results: Compared with no policy action, mitigation could reduce the number of deaths caused by hot temperatures among older Australians by 4,000–7,000 a year (range reflects likely population size at 2100). Under a scenario of "no action", the zone of potential transmission of dengue fever expands 1,800 kilometres (km) south, as far as Sydney. In contrast, by markedly constraining greenhouse gas emissions now, this southward extension could be limited to 600 km (to Rockhampton). The number of displaced people within the Asia-Pacific region could increase (by orders of magnitude) under the "no action" scenario because of adverse socioecological circumstances aggravated by climate change.

Conclusions: Additional health effects will accrue as a result of the projected climate change throughout this century, and individuals and health systems should be prepared for some level of adaptation. However, timely and strong policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would diminish the extent and severity of estimated future health effects.

Climate change and social inclusion: opportunities for justice and empowerment

...the greatest untapped resource at our disposal lies in the disadvantaged Australians living in our most excluded communities. (Nicholson 2007 p. 4)

The commons are where justice and sustainability converge, where ecology and equity meet. (Shiva 2005 p. 50)

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognised human induced climate change to be primarily a result of burning fossil fuels and land clearing (Lee 2007). Changes to the world's climate patterns have been occurring for decades, but only in recent times has climate change arrived in our collective conscious. An onslaught of extreme weather events, destruction and failure of crops, increasing levels of water restrictions, government announcement of desalination plants. proposed increase in prices for utilities such as power and water - have ushered climate change into the Australian lexicon.

The challenges for all of us are many and varied and perhaps even unimaginable. as many propose a global reduction in annual C02 emissions of between 60-80% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2050.

We are not talking just about the re-construction of our world, but about its re-invention. Ryan (2007)

How will climate change affect us? Who is most vulnerable? What will be the features of policies and strategies to combat climate change that ensure an equitable and just response across our entire society? Are our present social-cultural justice paradigms of social exclusion and inclusion adequate in addressing the impending health consequences that are likely to result from climate change, and in supporting an equitable. harmonious and fruitful life for all population groups in the future?

This paper, written in the spirit of solution-oriented research. focusing on the causes of positive health rather than the causes of disease and other problems (Robinson & Sirard 2005). explores the possibility of a paradigm shift which imagines the social inclusion of specific population groups, not as an appended extra, but integral to the design of an equitable, sustainable low carbon society of the future.

Muddy ovals under threat from climate change

Questions are raised about the wisdom of continuing the policy of unending global economic growth in the face of climate change. Alternate forms of economic organisation need to be devised, without which global warming may even lead to the elimination of cold, muddy football fields.

Climate change in the Victorian Alps : can VET be a change agent?

Of all the factors contributing to turbulent times in Australia, climate change is one that offers both challenges and opportunities for VET. In a time when the response to water availability is subject to ‘extensive debate and policy attention’, our presentation explores what adults living and working in the Alpine region of Victoria understand about the changes to water availability, and what they have learned about adapting to significant climatic changes in their local area. Interviews were conducted in the towns of Bright, Mount Beauty and Albury, with participants from across the Alpine region. Our study found evidence of a strong understanding of the direct impact of climate change on participants’ local community area, and a keen desire to learn about adaptation to change. In addition to an identified need for more information around climate change issues and projected impacts in general, participants saw practical hands-on water education strategies as an important way to educate people to help themselves. Conversations about where or how people learned to adapt to change were broad ranging, and clearly connected to the participants’ backgrounds, livelihoods or where they were situated. This raised the question of what responses VET might develop to address these identified learning needs. Major local industries
of tourism, agriculture, water harvesting and land care are all covered by national Training Packages that include industry- specific units of competence to support learning to live and work in an environmentally sustainable way. In addition, the national Employability Skills framework offers opportunities to build climate change awareness and adaptation into units of competency where they may not be explicitly incorporated. Our presentation will outline the opportunities for VET to act as a change agent in this and other Australian communities impacted by climate change.

A societal knowledge management system : harnessing indigenous wisdom to build sustainable predictors for adaptation to climate change

As the climate changes globally time-honoured climate in a region may change and shift to another region. Consequently, local predictors of climate may no longer apply to the area where they were born, but may be invaluable in new regions where previously reliable predictors have become outmoded This paper is set on the proposition thaI traditional (indigenous) know/edge can be a strategic source in adapting to climate change, in these changing times. The research reported in this paper takes the Societal Knowledge Management approach where knowledge that rests within local communities, is harnessed to inform local communities and scientists regarding climate change impacts, so as to adapt to them accurately. A phased study was conducted that aimed at acquiring, synthesising and disseminating traditional knowledge regarding change in monsoon patterns in India. Traditional wisdom prevalent among fhe myriad communities of India, was collected, collated and classified into knowledge spheres such as Bio-Indicators, Wind Movement, Atmospheric Pal/ems, Astrological Methods, Festivals and Rituals, Direction, Characteristics of the Rain, Characteristics of Celestial Bodies etc and incorporaled into a knowledge portal, which is the basis for building the Societal Knowledge Management System (SKM). Subsequently, the SKM is to be harmonised with scientific predictors on seasonal weather patterns will allow researchers to identify if the existing indicators and monsoon pattems are subject to change, and if so how. Research in progress is aimed at integrating the knowledge with modern science and disseminating this knowledge through local knowledge centres, at village levels. Furthermore, this study is to be replicated in Australia, by harnessing indigenous knowledge, to build the SKM for Australia that could assist in building a better understanding of the factors that impact the environment, methods of building sustainable predictors for climate and approaches for adapting the climate changes. The research reported is expected to inform policy makers, scientists, governance institutions as well as researchers regarding the applicability of indigenous knowledge in building sustainable predictors for adaptation to climate change in the two countries cited and can be extended into other countries.

Community resilience, climate change, sustainability & engagement : adventures in creative project-based education on the Eyre Peninsula

Teaching sustainability ethics and creative practical technological applications holistically, in a multi-disciplinary ethos, with real community engagement is fraught with pedagogical and logistical issues. This paper reviews a highly community-acclaimed tertiary course/project, offered at the School of Architecture, Landscape Architecture & Urban Design at the University of Adelaide, undertaken on the Eyre Peninsula in 1st semester 2009. The course successfully enhanced student appreciation of rural community capacity building and economic fragility issues while undertaking a project-based approach to interrogating and working with rural communities to devise and demonstrate potential micro-relevant design and planning initiatives that could strengthen community resilience, climate change adaptiveness, and validate natural resource management aims within townships. The project involved some 120 students in 6 host communities through 6 local municipalities with the full support of the Natural Resource Management (NRM) Board and Local Government Association (LGA).

The paper reviews the project, its historical evolution, aims, objectives, learning strategies, community aspirations and outcomes, and positions such against various professional education accreditation frameworks. The methodological learning process, including its philosophical, pedagogical and instruments outcomes are reviewed and interrogated. The student learning outcomes, University reputation impact, and community impact, professional practice knowledge and skill attributes, and instrumental outcomes are also reviewed drawing upon evidence derived from extensive meetings, questionnaire surveys, synergistic NRM-sponsored research projects, student evaluation of teachings (SELTS), and local media coverage of the project.

The project has received applause from the Australian Institute of Architects (AIA) and Australian Institute of Landscape Architects (AILA), and preliminary endorsement from the Planning Institute of Australia (PIA), as being integral to the School’s curriculum that achieves their professional accreditation expectations of key learning experiences relevant to climate change, master planning and design, and community engagement. The project offers a possible educational model that enriches student experience and learning and addresses recent generic university community engagement policy expectations.

Australian universities, government research and the application of climate change knowledge in Australian coastal zone management

One of the key issues in Australia for sustainable management of the coastal zone is that the science of climate change has not been widely used by decision-makers to inform coastal governance. There exist opportunities to enhance the dialogue between knowledge-makers and decision-makers, and universities have a key role to play in researching and fostering better linkages. At the heart of these linkages lies the principle of more informed engagement between historically disparate groups. In Australia, the new ‘Flagship’ research programme, funded by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), emphasizes their partnering with universities in a more systematic and collaborative manner than previously achieved in such research projects. In order to address sustainability in general and coastal adaptation to climate change in particular, interdisciplinary learning needs to occur between the social and natural sciences; also, transdisciplinary understanding of that interaction needs to be fully developed. New methods of communicative engagement such as computer visualizations and animations, together with deliberative techniques, can help policy-makers and planners reach a better understanding of the significance of the science of climate change impacts on the coast. Deeper engagement across historically disparate groups can lead to the development of epistemological and methodological synergies between social and natural scientists, adaptive learning, reflexive governance, and greater analytical and deliberative understanding among scientists, policymakers and the wider public. This understanding can lead in turn to enhance coastal governance for climate adaptation on the coast.

Implementing climate change policies consistent with integrated coastal zone management : a case study of Victoria, Australia

Whilst the proliferation of publications on climate change science is remarkable and makes the updating of responses to impacts of climate change on coastal environments daunting, the area of policy responses is even more confusing and complex. This is because policy responses do not need to consider the science of climate change alone but also have to weigh up the social and economic implications of the impact of climate change on coastal communities. In a federated nation such as Australia this has the added complication of three tiers of Government (Federal, State and local) having to interact in order to co-ordinate any policy responses. These complications should be aided by the internationally accepted concept of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) which has been prevalent in Australian coastal planning and management for several decades. This paper uses the State of Victoria, Australia as a case study of how Governments are responding to these challenges through using the principles of ICZM. The paper will review recent inquires and investigations in Australia and canvas the policy responses to these reviews, concentrating on the State of Victoria. The paper analyses how consistent these evolving policy responses are with ICZM and suggests lessons for other jurisdictions arising from the Victorian experience.