In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Ampliação de movimentos na dança circular com pessoas com deficiência visual

This paper aims at studying how circular dance can afford to sight-disabled peoples movement and how they can learn to cope with the deep movement of relation, consciousness, appropriation and communion with the world. Inside circular dance, a cosmic metaphor, is inscribed the movement of the world, which tells and changes amorously the human history. In the works of Paulo Freire and Maurice Merleau-Ponty one can find the necessary support to discuss, as long as possible, movement and existence. Research-action is used as a methodological approach whose empirical center is placed on the Institute of Education and Rehabilitation of Blind, in Natal, which shelters eight sightdisabled adults. The research s data reveal that the practice of circular dance concurs to enlarge the movement of the research s subjects, to develop a more accurate perception of their selves and of their own capacities, as well as improve the relations Me/Others, Me/World, which require a context of differences. The study has revealed that the practice of dance develops a better perception of the limits and surpasses as a human condition and, in consequence, the discovery of one s own body and the other s body as a resource of lessons and representations of the self and of the world. It lets out the development of a new way of thinking and coping with discrimination surrounding the disabled persons. In movement, in circular dance, the barrier between sight disablement and vision loses force.

Uma fundamentação para sinais e sistemas intervalares

In this work we use Interval Mathematics to establish interval counterparts for the main tools used in digital signal processing. More specifically, the approach developed here is oriented to signals, systems, sampling, quantization, coding and Fourier transforms. A detailed study for some interval arithmetics which handle with complex numbers is provided; they are: complex interval arithmetic (or rectangular), circular complex arithmetic, and interval arithmetic for polar sectors. This lead us to investigate some properties that are relevant for the development of a theory of interval digital signal processing. It is shown that the sets IR and R(C) endowed with any correct arithmetic is not an algebraic field, meaning that those sets do not behave like real and complex numbers. An alternative to the notion of interval complex width is also provided and the Kulisch- Miranker order is used in order to write complex numbers in the interval form enabling operations on endpoints. The use of interval signals and systems is possible thanks to the representation of complex values into floating point systems. That is, if a number x 2 R is not representable in a floating point system F then it is mapped to an interval [x;x], such that x is the largest number in F which is smaller than x and x is the smallest one in F which is greater than x. This interval representation is the starting point for definitions like interval signals and systems which take real or complex values. It provides the extension for notions like: causality, stability, time invariance, homogeneity, additivity and linearity to interval systems. The process of quantization is extended to its interval counterpart. Thereafter the interval versions for: quantization levels, quantization error and encoded signal are provided. It is shown that the interval levels of quantization represent complex quantization levels and the classical quantization error ranges over the interval quantization error. An estimation for the interval quantization error and an interval version for Z-transform (and hence Fourier transform) is provided. Finally, the results of an Matlab implementation is given

Antenas monopolo planar com patch em anel circular para sistemas UWB

The microstrip antennas are largely used in wireless communication systems due to their low cost, weight, less complex construction and manufacturing, in addition to its versatility. UWB systems have emerged as an alternative to wireless communications over short distances because they offer of higher capacity and lower multipath distortion than other systems with the same purpose. Combining the advantages of microstrip antennas to the characteristics of UWB, it is possible to develop more and more smaller devices, with diverse geometries to operate satisfactorily in these systems. This paper aims to propose alternatives to microstrip antennas for UWB systems operate in the range between 3.1 and 10.6 GHz, with a patch on circular ring. Some techniques are analyzed and employed to increase the bandwidth of proposed antenna: the insertion of a parasitic elements and a rectangular slit in the displaced ground plane. For this, key issues are presented as the basic principles of UWB systems, the fundamental theory of antennas and microstrip antennas. The simulations and experimental characterization of constructed antennas are presented, as well as analysis of parameters such as bandwidth and radiation pattern

Expression, purification, and circular dichroism analysis of human CDK9

The human cyclin-dependent kinase 9 (CDK9) protein was expressed in E coli BL21 using the pET23a vector at 30 degrees C. Several milligrams of protein were purified from soluble fraction using ionic exchange and ATP-affinity chromatography. The structural quality of recombinant CDK9 and the estimation of its secondary structure were obtained by circular dichroism. Structural models of CDK9 presented 26% of helices in agreement with the spectra by circular dichroism analysis. This is the first report on human CDK9 expression in Escherichia coli and structure analysis and provides the first step for the development of CDK9 inhibitors. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Superconducting boundary conditions for mesoscopic circular samples

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temperature-dependent vortex matter in a superconducting mesoscopic circular sector

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Vortices in a mesoscopic superconducting circular sector

In the present paper we develop an algorithm to solve the time dependent Ginzburg-Landau equations, by using the link variables technique, for circular geometries. In addition, we evaluate the Helmholtz and Gibbs free energy, the magnetization, and the number of vortices. This algorithm is applied to a circular sector. We evaluate the superconduting-normal magnetic field transition, the magnetization, and the superconducting density. Our results point out that, as we reduce the superconducting area, the nucleation field increases. Nevertheless, as the angular width of the circular sector goes to small values the asymptotic behavior is independent of the sample area. We also show that the value of the first nucleation field is approximately the same independently of the form of the circular sector. Furthermore, we study the nucleation of giant and multivortex states for the different shapes of the present geometry.

Low-altitude, near-polar and near-circular orbits around Europa

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Treatment of segmental tibial defects using acute bone shortening followed by gradual lengthening with circular external fixator

The aim of this study was to clinically and radiographically evaluate acute bone shortening followed by gradual lengthening in the treatment of large segmental tibia defects induced in seven clinically normal dogs. A circular external fixator was assembled with one proximal 5/8-circle ring, one middle ring and one distal ring connected with three rods. Thirty per cent of the tibia and fibula were removed in the middle and distal parts of the diaphyses, between the middle and distal rings. Acute bone shortening with compression of proximal and distal segments was performed. A subperiosteal osteotomy was performed between the half-ring and middle ring. Bone distraction started 7 days after surgery; after lengthening, the apparatus was left in place for 14 weeks for consolidation of regenerated bone. The frame was removed at the end of this period, and the dogs observed for four more weeks. Functional results were considered excellent in two, good in three and fair in the other two dogs. Bone regeneration within the distraction gap was obtained 14 weeks after neutral fixation period. We concluded that acute bone shortening followed by gradual lengthening by Ilizarov method can be used to treat extensive tibial defects in dogs, although it presents limb temporary abnormal limb shape and unequal length as early disadvantages.

Semiclassical approach to the decay of protons in circular motion under the influence of gravitational fields

We investigate the possible decay of protons in geodesic circular motion around neutral compact objects. Weak and strong decay rates and the associated emitted powers are calculated using a semiclassical approach. Our results are discussed with respect to distinct ones in the literature, which consider the decay of accelerated protons in electromagnetic fields. A number of consistency checks are presented along the paper.

Quality of mechanized coffee harvesting in circular planting system

A colheita mecanizada de café se destaca como um dos principais avanços tecnológicos em benefício dos produtores, porém, problemas com planejamento no plantio e desenvolvimento da cultura, bem como falhas na regulagem da colhedora, podem acarretar em redução na eficiência da operação, tornando-a mais estressante para a cultura que a colheita manual. Diante disso, o presente trabalho foi realizado no município de Patos de Minas, MG, com o objetivo de avaliar os danos na parte vegetativa e a qualidade da colheita mecanizada do café cultivado em plantio circular sob pivô central, com duas frequências de vibração das hastes, sob o controle estatístico do processo. Observou-se que a bienalidade negativa sobre a cultura reduziram a carga inicial de café, eliminando o efeito das condições de insolação. Os índices de qualidade da colheita apresentaram distribuição assimétrica, com grande variabilidade nas amostras, sendo apenas a eficiência de derriça influenciada pelos eixos avaliados, e se mostrando estável pelo controle estatístico. Os danos causados às plantas pela colheita apresentaram valores desejáveis, não variando em função dos fatores analisados, mas sendo considerado sob controle estatístico.

Forced convection to laminar flow of liquid egg yolk in circular and annular ducts

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Debris perturbed by radiation pressure: relative velocities across circular orbits

In the present work we consider a dynamical system of mum size particles around the Earth subject to the effects of radiation pressure. Our main goal is to study the evolution of its relative velocity with respect to the co-planar circular orbits that it crosses. The particles were initially in a circular geostationary orbit, and the particles size were in the range between 1 and 100 mum. The radiation pressure produces variations in its eccentricity, resulting in a change in its orbital velocity. The results indicated the maximum linear momentum and kinetic energy increases as the particle size increases. For a particle of 1 mum the kinetic energy is approximately 1.56 x 10(-7) J and the momentum is 6.27 x 10(-11) kg m/s and for 100 mum the energy is approximately 1.82 x 10(-4) J and the momentum is 2.14 x 10(-6) kg m/s. (C) 2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.