Identificación de áreas prioritarias para la conservación de razas de maíz en la sierra de Ecuador

En Ecuador el maíz es el cultivo más importante en superficie y es base de la alimentación para la población rural que vive en los Andes. A diferencia de lo que sucede en la Costa, en la región Sierra todavía se cultivan numerosas variedades tradicionales que se agrupan en veinticuatro razas. Mantener esta diversidad es, pues, de gran importancia no solo para la seguridad alimentaria, sino también como fuente de genes para tolerancia a factores abióticos que podrían ser incorporados a las variedades modernas. Si bien parte de esta diversidad fue recolectada a mediados del siglo pasado y está siendo conservada en distintos bancos de germoplasma, es deseable que su conservación in situ también esté asegurada, entre otras razones, porque de esta manera el cultivo puede seguir evolucionando. Para poder implementar un plan de conservación en finca que contribuya a preservar este patrimonio, resulta imprescindible identificar áreas idóneas donde concentrar los recursos y conocer las características y tipologías de los agricultores que manejan la diversidad actual. Generar esta información es el objetivo principal de esta investigación y para lograrlo se han llevado a cabo cuatro estudios: (1) Análisis de la diversidad a nivel de razas e identificación de áreas de alta riqueza de razas, alta diversidad morfológica y/o alta diversidad ecogeográfica en la Sierra de Ecuador, (2) Identificación del perfil y las características de los agricultores que conservan y manejan las variedades tradicionales de maíz en la Sierra de Ecuador, (3) Análisis del conocimiento local, manejo y usos de variedades tradicionales de maíz en la Sierra de Ecuador, y (4) Identificación de áreas de alta diversidad y bajo riesgo de pérdida para la conservación en finca de maíz en la Sierra de Ecuador. Para el primer estudio se visitaron 303 fincas distribuidas a lo largo de la Sierra y se recolectaron 636 muestras que fueron caracterizadas morfológicamente mediante 14 variables: 8 relacionadas con la mazorca (forma, longitud y diámetro de la mazorca, color y diámetro de olote y número y disposición de hileras) y 7 referidas el grano (número total de granos, color, forma, longitud, anchura y grosor de grano y tipo de endospermo). Adicionalmente, las fincas donde se tomaron las muestras fueron caracterizadas ecogeográficamente mediante 5 variables climáticas (temperatura media estacional, rango de temperatura media anual, temperatura mínima de diciembre, precipitación estacional y precipitación de octubre), 2 geofísicas (altitud y pendiente) y 5 edáficas (textura principal del suelo, profundidad a roca, pH, contenido en materia orgánica y fertilidad). A partir de esta información y mediante técnicas de sistemas de información geográfica (SIG), se generaron mapas de distribución por raza en formato vectorial y un mapa de riqueza de razas, un mapa de diversidad morfológica y un mapa de diversidad ecogeográfica en formato ráster con celdas de 10 km x 10 km. Los resultados permitieron constatar que, en los últimos 60 años, no se ha perdido ninguna raza. Sin embargo, Canguil, Chaucho y Clavito han dejado de cultivarse en algunas provincias con la consiguiente erosión genética del cultivo. La caracterización morfológica detectó diferencias en el grado de variabilidad intra-raza, siendo Patillo Ecuatoriano, Racimo de Uva y Uchima las razas más heterogéneas tanto para los caracteres cualitativos como cuantitativos. A nivel climático y geofísico, también se detectaron diferencias en el grado de variación intra-raza; Cuzco Ecuatoriano, Kcello Ecuatoriano y Montaña Ecuatoriana fueron las razas que en promedio presentaron mayores rangos y coeficientes de variación para estas variables ecogeográficas. En cuanto a las condiciones edáficas todas las razas, excepto Cónico Dentado, presentaron una gran heterogeneidad, pudiendo crecer tanto en suelos ricos como pobres, con valores de pH entre ácido y moderadamente alcalino. La comparación entre razas reveló diferencias significativas en los rangos ambientales de algunas razas como Cónico Dentado, que tiende a cultivarse a menor altitud y, por tanto, en ambientes menos fríos y de mayor precipitación que Blanco Blandito, Patillo Ecuatoriano, Sabanero Ecuatoriano, Uchima y Zhima. Para la mayoría de las razas se encontraron materiales potencialmente adaptados a condiciones de estrés (precipitación estacional inferior a 500 mm y suelos con pH entre 4.5 y 5.5). Finalmente, los mapas de riqueza, de diversidad morfológica y de diversidad ecogeográfica mostraron 36 celdas de alta diversidad repartidas en las 10 provincias de la Sierra: 11 celdas en las provincias del norte, 11 en las provincias del centro y 14 en las provincias del sur. Para la caracterización e identificación de las tipologías de los agricultores que cultivan maíz en la Sierra de Ecuador y el análisis de los posibles factores de riesgo de pérdida de diversidad, se realizaron entrevistas individuales y semiestructuradas a los agricultores dueños de las fincas donde se recolectaron las muestras para el estudio de diversidad (254 en total). Las preguntas que se formularon (11 abiertas y 5 cerradas) estuvieron organizadas en seis bloques: datos del agricultor, características de la finca, diversidad y conocimiento del cultivo, manejo del cultivo, usos y flujo de semillas. Los resultados indicaron que la diversidad de maíz que hay en la Sierra de Ecuador es manejada mayoritariamente por agricultores mestizos, de entre 30 y 55 años, que cultivan una o dos variedades tradicionales para autoconsumo, en parcelas de menos de 0.5 ha y en asocio con fréjol. El análisis de segmentación mediante el algoritmo Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID) permitió identificar un pequeño grupo de agricultores indígenas con parcelas medianas (entre 0.5 ha y 1.5 ha) que conservan un mayor número de variedades tradicionales por finca que el agricultor promedio. Los análisis estadísticos no detectaron diferencias significativas entre etnias (mestizo vs. indígena), géneros (hombre vs. mujer) y grupos de edad (jóvenes menores de 30 años, adultos entre 30 y 55 años y adultos mayores de 55 años) en lo que respecta al conocimiento del cultivo (criterios de reconocimiento y razones de preferencia) y manejo (tipo de cultivo), pero sí detectaron diferencias entre regiones, principalmente en el modo de cultivar el maíz; mientras que en el norte y sur tienden a sembrarlo en asocio y con un mayor número de especies, en el centro acostumbran a cultivarlo preferentemente solo. En cuanto a los usos, se recopilaron hasta 39 modos diferentes de consumir maíz, siendo Kcello Ecuatoriano y Zhima las razas para las que se registró un mayor número de usos. La comparación del número medio de usos por variedad entre etnias evidenció que los agricultores mestizos utilizan sus variedades tradicionales de forma más variada que los indígenas. Entre los factores de riesgo que se analizaron, el bajo porcentaje de jóvenes agricultores que se ocupan de las fincas podría suponer una amenaza a medio plazo por falta de relevo generacional. Adicionalmente, las numerosas sinonimias y homonimias que se detectaron y el bajo intercambio de semillas también podrían ser causa de pérdida de diversidad, bien por reemplazo o por envejecimiento de la semilla. Finalmente, se concluyó que las razas Chaucho, Complejo Chillo-Huandango, Complejo Mishca-Huandango, Cónico Dentado, Montaña Ecuatoriana y Sabanero Ecuatoriano son particularmente vulnerables, no solo por su baja presencia, sino también por el color de grano que tienen (los mismos que la mayoría de las razas más comunes) y carecer de nombres y usos específicos. Finalmente, para la priorización de áreas de conservación en finca para maíz en la Sierra de Ecuador, se utilizaron 13 criterios de diferente naturaleza: 2 ecogeográficos (precipitación, diversidad ecogeográfica), 6 biológicos (grado de presencia del cultivo, riqueza de razas, diversidad morfológica, presencia de mezclas, presencia de razas locales y riesgo de erosión genética), 3 culturales (abundancia de variedades por finca, diversidad de usos y frecuencia de intercambio) y 2 demográficos (tamaño de la población y distancia a núcleos urbanos). Mediante técnicas SIG y de evaluación multicriterio, los valores originales de las capas-criterio fueron transformados a una escala de 0 a 100. Posteriormente, las capas-criterio normalizadas fueron sumadas utilizando tres métodos de ponderación: (1) mismo peso, (2) diferente peso según la puntuación otorgada por 72 expertos, y (3) diferente peso según el método de comparación entre pares de criterios. Los resultados permitieron identificar ocho celdas de 10 km x 10 km con alta puntuación (> 65): tres celdas en el norte (una en cada una de las provincias), una celda en el centro (en la provincia de Cotopaxi), y cuatro celdas en la región sur (dos en Azuay y otras dos en Loja). ABSTRACT In Ecuador, the maize is the most important cultivation in surface and it is a base of the feeding for the rural population who lives in the Andes. In contrast to what it happens on the Coast, in the Sierra region still there are cultivated numerous traditional varieties that are grouped into twenty-four races. Maintaining this diversity is, therefore, of great importance not only for food security, but also as a source of genes for tolerance to abiotic factors could be incorporated into modern varieties. Although part of this diversity was collected in the middle of the last century and is still preserved in various germplasm banks, it is desirable for the in situ conservation also is assured, among other reasons, because in this way the crop can continue to evolve. To be able to implement a conservation plan on farm that contribute to preserving this heritage, it is essential to identify suitable areas where to concentrate resources and know the characteristics and typology of farmer who managed the current diversity. To generate this information is the main target of this investigation and to achieve this, four studies have been carried out: (1) Analysis of the diversity at races and identification of areas of high richness of races, high morphological diversity and / or ecogeographical high diversity in the Sierra of Ecuador, (2) Identification of the profile and characteristics of farmers who conserve and manage traditional varieties of maize in the Sierra of Ecuador, (3) Analysis of local knowledge, management and use of traditional varieties of maize in the Sierra of Ecuador, and (4) Identification of areas of high diversity and low risk of loss for the conservation of maize in the Sierra of Ecuador. For the first study were visited 303 farms distributed along the Sierra and collected 636 samples that were characterized morphologically by 14 variables: 8 related to the ear (shape, length and diameter of the cob, colour, and diameter of cob and number and arrangement of rows) and 7 referred to the grain (total number of grain, colour, shape, length, width, and thickness and type of grain endosperm). In addition, the farms where the samples were taken were characterized ecogeographically through 5 climatic variables (seasonal average temperature, range of average annual temperature, minimum temperature for December, seasonal precipitation and precipitation of October), 2 geophysical (altitude and slope) and edaphic 5 (main texture of the soil, deep rock, pH, content of organic matter and fertility). From this information and techniques of geographic information systems (GIS), maps were generated for distribution by race in vector format and a map of richness of races, a map of morphological diversity and a map of ecogeographical diversity in raster format with cells of 10 km x 10 km. The results allowed observing that, over the past 60 years, it has not lost any race. Nevertheless, Canguil, Chaucho and Clavito have stopped being cultivated in some provinces with the consequent genetic erosion of the cultivation. The morphological characterization detected differences in the degree of variability intra-race, being Patillo Ecuatoriano, Racimo de Uva and Uchima races more heterogeneous both for the qualitative and quantitative characters. At climate and geophysical level, also detected differences in the degree of variation intra-race; Cuzco Ecuatoriano, Kcello Ecuatoriano and Montaña Ecuatoriana were races that, on average, showed higher ranges and coefficients of variation for these geographical characters. In terms of the edaphic conditions, all races, except Cónico Dentado, showed a great heterogeneity, and can grow both in rich and poor soils, with pH values between acid and moderately alkaline. The comparison between races revealed significant differences in the environmental ranges in some races as Cónico Dentado, which tends to be grown at lower elevations and, therefore, in environments less cold and greater precipitation than Blanco Blandito, Patillo Ecuatoriano, Sabanero Ecuatoriano, Uchima and Zhima. For most of the races were found materials potentially adapted to stress conditions (seasonal precipitation less than 500 mm and soil with a pH between 4.5 and 5.5). Finally, the maps of richness, morphologic diversity and ecogeographical diversity showed 36 cells high diversity distributed in 10 provinces of the Sierra: 11 cells in the northern provinces, 11 in the central provinces and 14 in the southern provinces. For the characterization and identification of the typology of the farmers who cultivate corn in the Sierra of Ecuador and the analysis of the possible factors of risk of loss of diversity, there were realized interviews individual and semistructured to the farmers’ owners of the farms where the samples were gathered for the study of diversity (254 in whole). The questions that were formulated (11 opened ones and 5 closed ones) were organized in six blocks: data of the farmer, characteristics of the farm, diversity and knowledge of the crop, crop management, uses and seed flow. The results indicated that the maize diversity that exist in the Sierra of Ecuador is managed mainly by mestizo farmers, aged between 30 and 55, who cultivate one or two traditional varieties for self-consumption, on plots of less than 0.5 has and in associated with beans. The segmentation analysis algorithm using the Chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID technique), allowed to identify a small group of indigenous farmers with medium-sized plots (between 0.5 there is and 1.5 it is) that a major number of traditional varieties preserves for farm that the average farmer. The statistical analysis did not detect significant differences between ethnic groups (mestizos vs. indigenous), genres (man vs. women) and age groups (young people under 30 years of age, adults between 30 and 55 years and adults over 55 years old) in regards to the knowledge of the cultivation (recognition criteria and reasons of preference) and management (type of crop), but if detected differences between regions, mainly on the mode of cultivating the maize; while in the north and south they tend to sow in associate and with a greater number of species, in the center accustomed to cultivate it preferably only. In regards to the uses, they were compiled up to 39 different ways of consuming maize, being Kcello Ecuatoriano and Zhima the races for which a major number of uses registered. The comparison of the average number of uses per variety between ethnic groups showed that the mestizo farmers used their traditional varieties of form more varied than the indigenous people. Between the factors of risk that were analyzed, the low percentage of young farmers who deal with the farms might suppose a medium-term threat for lack of generational relief. In addition, the numerous synonyms and homonyms that were detected and the low seed exchange could also be a cause of loss of diversity, either by replacement or by aging of the seed. Finally, it was concluded that the races Chaucho, Complex Chillo-Huandango, Complex Mishca-Huandango, Cónico Dentado, Montaña Ecuatoriana and Sabanero Ecuatoriano are particularly vulnerable, not only because of their low presence, but also by the grain color they have (the same as the majority of races more common) and lack of names and specific uses. Finally, for the prioritization of maize conservation areas on farm in the Sierra of Ecuador, used 13 criteria of different nature: 2 ecogeographic (precipitation, diversity ecogeographical), 6 biological (degree of presence of the crop, races richness, morphological diversity, the presence of mixtures, presence of local races and risk of genetic erosion), 3 cultural (abundance of varieties per farm, diversity of uses and frequency of exchange) and 2 demographic (population size and distance to urban centers). Using GIS techniques and multicriteria evaluation, the original values of the layers-criterion were transformed to a scale of 0 to 100. Later, the normalized layers - criteria were added using three weighting methods: (1) the same weight, (2) different weight according to the score given by 72 experts, and (3) different weight according to the method of comparison between pairs of criteria. The results allowed to identify eight 10 km cells x 10 km with high punctuation (> 65): three cells in the north (one in each of the provinces), a cell in the center (in the Cotopaxi province), and four cells in the south region (two in Azuay and other two in Loja).

Consumo alimentar e estilo de vida: um estudo longitudinal com estudantes universitários

A universidade é um local de aprendizagem no qual conhecimento acadêmico, social e cultural permeia a relação entre os estudantes, onde estes terão a oportunidade de vivenciar diferentes situações durante o curso. A maior preocupação é como esta experiência influenciará o estado nutricional com a possível mudança dos hábitos cotidianos, como abuso de bebidas alcoólicas, uso irrestrito de suplementos vitamínicos e alimentares e a alimentação inadequada. O consumo alimentar de universitários foi o foco desta pesquisa que teve como objetivo geral identificar as principais mudanças do consumo de alimentos/ bebidas e estilos de vida por meio de estudo de coorte, envolvendo estudantes ingressantes nos cursos de graduação da Escola Superior de Agricultura \"Luiz de Queiroz\" - ESALQ/USP, e como objetivos específicos desenvolver, validar e aplicar um instrumento com a finalidade de identificar medidas comportamentais relacionadas aos hábitos de consumo alimentar, atividade física, situação socioeconômica e relacionar as informações obtidas ao estado nutricional do estudante; descrever o consumo dentro e fora do domicílio. Participaram da pesquisa estudantes com idade entre 18 e 30 anos. Um questionário foi aplicado juntamente com a avaliação antropométrica para mensuração do peso, altura e classificação do estado nutricional por meio do Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC). Este protocolo foi repetido após 8 meses de curso para que fosse identificada a situação do estado nutricional de cada indivíduo relacionada às mudanças do comportamento alimentar. Os dados coletados foram armazenados em base de dados no Microsoft Excel, sendo analisados por meio do Statistical Analysis System. Os dados quantitativos foram expressos em média e desvio-padrão (DP) com cálculos de intervalos de confiança de 95%. O teste do qui-quadrado foi utilizado para comparar a distribuição da prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade quanto à variável sexo, associando-se ao IMC. Foi utilizado o coeficiente de correlação intraclasse de Pearson para verificação de concordância entre peso e altura aferidos e referidos. Foi realizada análise de regressão múltipla para identificação da mudança de consumo entre as fases, assim como para peso corporal. Utilizou-se o nível de significância de 5%. Observaram-se entre as duas fases quantidades preocupantes de nutrientes ingeridos aquém ou além dos limites preconizados para ambos os sexos; destaque para o elevado consumo de sódio, e insatisfatório de carotenóides. No caso dos carotenóides, houve crescimento significativo da contribuição da categoria 3 para as alunas. O consumo de cafeína na segunda fase foi maior, predominando o fornecimento pelos alimentos ultraprocessados. De forma geral houve aumento do consumo de alimentos processados e ultraprocessados. Observou-se aumento (significativo a 5%) no consumo de lipídios. Constatou-se diminuição na prática de exercícios físicos e aumento na ingestão de bebidas alcoólicas, e destas com energéticos e no tabagismo. Concluiu-se que o ingresso na universidade contribui para a mudança nos hábitos alimentares e estilos de vida de maneira negativa, sendo necessária intervenção adequada visando a promoção da saúde dos estudantes.

Análise de ligação do gene de resistência Zym-2 com marcadores microssatélites e reação de acessos de meloeiro ao Zucchini yellow mosaic virus (ZYMV)

As viroses causam perdas significativas na cultura do melão. Dentre essas, o vírus do mosaico amarelo da abobrinha-de-moita (Zucchini yellow mosaic virus- ZYMV) possui grande importância para a cultura e é encontrado em todos os locais de plantio de cucurbitáceas. O controle desse vírus através da resistência genética é a forma mais eficiente de manejo. O acesso PI414723 é a única fonte de resistência de meloeiro ao ZYMV. Essa resistência é oligogênica e supostamente condicionada por três genes dominantes: Zym-1, Zym-2 e Zym-3. A localização cromossômica do gene Zym-1 já foi confirmada no grupo de ligação 2, próximo ao marcador CMAG36. Entretanto, a localização de Zym-2 ainda carece de confirmação experimental, muito embora existam evidências de sua localização no grupo de ligação 10 (LGX). Sendo assim, um dos objetivos do presente trabalho foi confirmar a localização do gene Zym-2 através de análises de ligação com marcadores microssatélites (SSRs). Para tanto, foi utilizada uma população F2 derivada do cruzamento PI414723 x \'Védrantais\'. As plantas foram inoculadas mecanicamente com o isolado RN6-F, patótipo 0, duas vezes em um intervalo de 24 h. A confirmação da infecção e a quantificação dos títulos virais nas plantas F2 foram realizadas através do teste PTA-ELISA. O DNA genômico das plantas foi extraído da primeira folha verdadeira e utilizado nas reações de PCR com primers específicos para SSRs selecionados pertencentes ao LGX. Observou-se uma distribuição assimétrica de classes de absorbância e maior frequência de indivíduos F2 na classe com menor valor (0,1 a 0,2), sugerindo a existência de um gene de efeito maior. O teste chi-quadrado mostrou que todos os marcadores segregaram na frequência esperada (1:2:1), exceto o marcador CMCT134b. A ligação do Zym-2 aos marcadores foi confirmada por meio de regressão linear simples. Dos marcadores analisados, a regressão linear foi significativa para MU6549 e CMBR55, com p-valores de 0,011 e 0,0054, respectivamente. As análises de ligação mostraram que as ordens e as distâncias entre os marcadores condizem com os mapas presentes na literatura. Um segundo objetivo do estudo foi o de avaliar a reação ao ZYMV de 42 acessos de meloeiro oriundos da região Nordeste do Brasil, com o intuito de explorar novas fontes de resistência. Foram realizados dois experimentos utilizando a mesma metodologia citada anteriormente. O título viral médio entre os acessos variou de 0,123 a 0,621 no experimento 1 e de 0,019 a 0,368 no experimento 2. Alguns acessos apresentaram consistentemente baixos títulos virais, próximos aos do acesso resistente PI414723 e dos controles negativos (plantas não inoculadas da cultivar \'Védrantais\'). Portanto, estes acessos mostram-se como potenciais fontes de resistência ao vírus para o emprego em programas de melhoramento.

Injury incidence in judokas at the Spanish National University Championship

Background and Study Aim: Understanding injury incidence rates will be a great help with regards to preventing potential future damages. It is for this reason that this study suggests studying a large number of variables. The purpose of research is the relationship of events (empirical variables) that are usually taken into account in developing injury prevention programs during the battles and training in judo tournament. Material and methods: In this research project, 57 male judokas taking part in the Spanish National University Championship in 2009 were asked to complete a retrospective questionnaire. We analysed the following events: the most commonly injured body regions, the medical diagnosis, how and when the injury happened, the type of injury, the side of the body and the type of medical attention received. For the statistical analysis, we used the SPSS statistics programme to apply the Chi-square test in order to determine the significance levels for non-parametric tests from p<.05. Results: Significant differences were found in the most commonly injured body region, the shoulder/clavicle (p<.05), and in the most common diagnosis, the sprain (p<.05). Impact injuries (p<.05) are the most common and training (p<.05) is the most dangerous time. About the type of injury, 78.38% are new injuries (p<.05) and 69.05% affect the right hand side of the body (p<.05). Doctors are the most consulted specialists, but the physiotherapists obtained the best marks. Have been out due to injury for over 21 days 36.36% of the participants, but not for the entire season. Conclusions: The most common diagnosis in university student judokas coincides with those of elite judokas, with the sprain being the most common. University student judokas have a higher rate of shoulder/clavicle injuries, while professional judokas are prone to a higher rate of knee injuries. Training is the most common moment in which injuries occur, both in university student judokas and professional judokas. New injuries are the most common types of injuries in university student judokas and, while doctors are the most consulted specialists, the physiotherapists obtained the best marks.

When “Where” is More Important Than “When”: Birthplace and Birthdate Effects On The Achievement Of Sporting Expertise

In this study, we assessed whether contextual factors related to where or when an athlete is born influence their likelihood of playing professional sport. The birthplace and birth month of all American players in the National Hockey League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and Professional Golfer's Association, and all Canadian players in the National Hockey League were collected from official websites. Monte Carlo simulations were used to verify if the birthplace of these professional athletes deviated in any systematic way from the official census population distribution, and chi-square analyses were conducted to determine whether the players' birth months were evenly distributed throughout the year. Results showed a birthplace bias towards smaller cities, with professional athletes being over-represented in cities of less than 500,000 and under-represented in cities of 500,000 and over. A birth month/relative age effect (in the form of a distinct bias towards elite athletes being relatively older than their peers) was found for hockey and baseball but not for basketball and golf. Comparative analyses suggested that contextual factors associated with place of birth contribute more influentially to the achievement of an elite level of sport performance than does relative age and that these factors are essentially independent in their influences on expertise development.

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

When "where'' is more important than "when": Birthplace and birthdate effects on the achievement of sporting expertise

In this study, we assessed whether contextual factors related to where or when an athlete is born influence their likelihood of playing professional sport. The birthplace and birth month of all American players in the National Hockey League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and Professional Golfer's Association, and all Canadian players in the National Hockey League were collected from official websites. Monte Carlo simulations were used to verify if the birthplace of these professional athletes deviated in any systematic way from the official census population distribution, and chi-square analyses were conducted to determine whether the players' birth months were evenly distributed throughout the year. Results showed a birthplace bias towards smaller cities, with professional athletes being over-represented in cities of less than 500,000 and under-represented in cities of 500,000 and over. A birth month/relative age effect (in the form of a distinct bias towards elite athletes being relatively older than their peers) was found for hockey and baseball but not for basketball and golf. Comparative analyses suggested that contextual factors associated with place of birth contribute more influentially to the achievement of an elite level of sport performance than does relative age and that these factors are essentially independent in their influences on expertise development.

Extending a model of shift-work tolerance

The present study contributes to theory and practice through the development of a model of shift-work tolerance with the potential to indicate interventions that reduce nurses' intention toward turnover and increase job satisfaction in hospital-based settings. Survey data from 1257 nurses were used to conduct structural equation modeling that examine the direct and indirect effects of supervisor and colleague support, team identity, team climate, and control over working environment on time-based work/life conflict, psychological well-being, physical symptoms, job satisfaction, and turnover intention. The analysis of the proposed model revealed a good fit The chi-square difference test was non-significant (χ2(26)=338.56), the fit indices were high (CFI=.923, NFI=.918, and NNFI=.868), the distribution of residuals was symmetric and approached zero, the average standardized residual was low (AASR=.04), and the standardized RMR was .072. In terms of the predictor variable, the final model explained 48% of the variance in turnover intention. The data revealed considerable evidence of both direct effects on adjustment and complex indirect links between levels of adjustment and work-related social support, team identity, team climate, and control. Nurses with high supervisor and coworker support experienced more positive team climates, identified more strongly with their team, and increased their perceptions of control over their work environment. This in turn lowered their appraisals of their time-based work/life conflict, which consequently increased their psychological well-being and job satisfaction and reduced their physical health symptoms and turnover intention. The type of shift schedule worked by the nurses influenced levels of turnover intention, control over work environment, time-based work/life conflict, and physical symptoms.

Statnote 1: is the data normal?

Testing whether an observed distribution of observations deviates from normality is a common type of statistical test available in statistics software. Most software offer two ways of judging whether there are significant deviations of the observed from the expected distributions, viz., chi-square and the KS test. These tests have different sensitivities and problems and often give conflicting results. The results of these tests together with observations of the shape of the observed distribution should be used to judge normality.

Statnote 34 : the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test is a non-parametric test which can be used in two different circumstances. First, it can be used as an alternative to chi-square (?2) as a ‘goodness-of-fit’ test to compare whether a given ‘observed’ sample of observations conforms to an ‘expected’ distribution of results (KS, one-sample test). An example of the use of the one-sample test to determine whether a sample of observations was normally distributed was described previously. Second, it can be used as an alternative to the Mann-Whitney test to compare two independent samples of observations (KS, two-sample test). Hence, this statnote describes the use of the KS test with reference to two scenarios: (1) to compare the observed frequency (Fo) of soil samples containing cysts of the protozoan Naegleria collected each month for a year with an expected equal frequency (Fe) across months (one-sample test), and (2) to compare the abundance of bacteria on cloths and sponges sampled in a domestic kitchen environment (two-sample test).

Effects of a modified English listening comprehension curriculum on students' achievement in English listening comprehension at Tamsui Oxford University College in Taiwan

Due to increased international trade, English as a foreign language is important to Taiwan. However, ESL teaching and learning in Taiwan emphasizes reading and writing skills only. ESL teaching in Taiwan causes students to lack competence in complete communication. Improving students' listening and speaking is a vital issue in Taiwan. ^ The purposes of this study are to determine the effects of a modified curriculum for the English listening comprehension course, to investigate whether the modified curriculum results in a significant improvement in student's listening comprehension, and to determine whether students were motivated to increase listening comprehension ability as a result of the new listening activities. An experimental and a control group, randomly assigned, received either the modified or the traditional curriculum at Tamsui Oxford University College (TOUC) in Taiwan over a fourteen week period of time. ^ A Michigan Listening Comprehension posttest was used to determine the difference in achievement between the two groups. A final examination was conducted to compare the two groups' achievement and to determine whether the goal of increasing listening comprehension achievement by using a modified curriculum was met. Subjects completed two questionnaires, one common form prior to class and another unique form for each group at the end of instruction. ^ Frequency distribution, chi-square, t-test for independent samples and analysis of covariance were used to analyze the data. The findings indicated that there were no significant differences in students' attitude and interest in English listening comprehension between those who were taught with an English listening modified curriculum compared with those students who were taught with a traditional curriculum. The findings also indicated that there was a difference in the final examination with the control group taught using the traditional curriculum scoring higher than the experimental group taught using the modified curriculum for performance in English listening comprehension, but there was no difference in scores on the Michigan Listening Comprehension Test (posttest). In addition, it was found that learning attitude and motivation influence students' learning. ^

Prevalência da síndrome metabólica e seus componentes nos estágios pubertários de escolares do sexo feminino norte-rio-grandenses

The diagnosis of nutritional status is extremely re levant in clinical practice and population assessment, due to the association betwe en body fat and metabolic alterations. The aim of this study is to analyze th e prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and its components in the pubertal stages of f emale students in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil, in accordance with Internation al Diabetes Federation criteria. This is a cross-sectional study with 449 students aged betw een 8 and 19 years, stratified into pubertal stages systematized by Marshal and Tanner (1969), as follows: 27.6% prepubertal, 44.3% pubertal and 28.1% postpubertal, with mean ages of 9.4±1.27, 12.4±2.23 and 15.1±1.88 years, respectively. Preval ences were analyzed using distribution of frequencies and their respective 95 % confidence intervals, while the chi- square test and odds ratio were applied to analyze the associations between variables. The general prevalence of MS was 3.3% (CI: 2% - 5%) , without occurrences in the prepubertal stage, observing that it emerges from t he pubertal stage onwards with a prevalence of 2.5% (CI 95% 0.1% - 5%), 1% (CI 95% 0.4% - 2.3%) of cases with overweight and 1.5% (CI 95% -0.1% - 3.2%) with obes e individuals, while in the postpubertal stage the prevalence is 7.9% (CI 95% 3 .2% - 12.6%), 0.8% (CI 95% -0.8% - 2.3%) normal weight cases, 4% (CI 95% 0.6% - 7.4% ) overweight and 3.1% (CI 0.1% - 6.2%) obese individuals. There was an association (p<0.02) between pubertal stages and MS ( x 2 =5.2), with an OR of 3.3 (CI: 1.2 - 5), showing tha t postpubertal adolescents are more prone to SM than pubertals, while the OR i n obese individuals was 2.1 (CI: 2– 2.2) compared to the overweight. Body mass index (B MI) ( x 2 = 29.4; p<0.001) and age range ( x 2 = 13.1; p<0.001) showed a significant linear assoc iation with MS. Of the adolescents with MS, those aged ten years or younge r exhibited higher %G. The most prevalent components in all the stages were altered waist circumference (27.2% [CI 23% - 31%]) and low HDL cholesterol (39.6% [CI 35% – 44%]), which, coupled with hypertension, displayed significant differences in the postpubertal stage in relation to the other stages. The results show that MS emerges from the pubertal stage onwards in proportion to excess childhood body fat, a fact tha t calls for prevention strategies using an educational approach, reducing the large demand on the National Health System. Keywords: Metabolic syndrome, pubertal stages, risk factors.

Transplantes de córneas no estado do Rio Grande do Norte: aspectos epidemiológicos e clínicos

This study aimed to characterize in a clinical and epidemiological way the patients who are on a waiting list for transplantation and the patients transplanted with corneal tissue in a corneal transplants reference service in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. It is an epidemiological study of a quantitative approach, with cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical cut including all patients on the waiting list for transplantation (population A) and the patients already transplanted with a corneal tissue (population B) in a reference service. In population A, there was a census conducted of patients on the waiting list for corneal transplantation (n=62 patients). In population B, the sample was non-probabilistic and corresponded to all corneal transplants performed in the service in the period from 2010 to 2014 (n=258). This study is approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, in Opinion 876 177 and CAAE 37533014.8.0000.5537. Data were collected in full in the period from January to April 2015, by two instruments built to systematize the necessary data collection. After being coded and tabulated, data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences software, version 20.0. The definition of variables and their distribution patterns were presented as frequencies and measures of central tendency while, for multivariate analysis, the effect of magnitude measures were applied (prevalence ratio) and measures of association (chi-square test or Fisher's exact test) for a 0.05 significance level. The results are shown in two scientific articles coming from the field survey data. It was found that the epidemiological profile of patients on the waiting list (n=62) showed a prevalence of individuals aged over 50 years old, female (54.84%) and residents of the middle region of East Rio Grande do Norte (66.13%). The clinical profile of patients with corneal transplantation (n=258) was characterized by being male (51.16%) with an average age of 49.33 years old and 57.75% were coming from East Rio Grande do Norte. The average time on the waiting list was 172.63 days in elective transplants and 9.03 days in urgent transplants. Keratoconus was the main indicator condition to perform the transplant. For patients on the waiting list, the variable “type of disorder of the cornea” showed statistically significant association with gender and age. For patients with corneal transplants, the variable "type of disorder of the cornea" was associated with the variables gender, age, previous surgery, failure of previous graft, classification of the eye and glaucoma. By characterizing the clinical and epidemiological profile of corneal transplants, it is possible to question the reality, pointing about the care that should be offered and develop targeted interventions to collective and individual needs intrinsic to patients who need this surgery as a treatment option.

Toothache and social and economic conditions among adolescents in Northeastern Brazil

O objetivo deste estudo foi relacionar dor de dente com condição socioeconômica, acesso aos serviços de saúde bucal e estilo de vida em adolescentes do município de Sobral, Ceará, desenvolvido com delineamento transversal analítico, com amostra composta por 688 indivíduos. A prevalência de dor de dente no grupo pesquisado foi de 31,8%. Para avaliar a relação entre as variáveis independentes e a dor de dente, realizou-se teste de associação pelo qui-quadrado, estimando-se a razão de prevalências por meio da regressão de Poisson. Os fatores que mais demonstraram relação com a dor de dente foram severidade da cárie, motivo do atendimento odontológico relacionado com urgência, frequência ao dentista e recebimento de escova na escola. Observou-se que a alta prevalência de dor de dente em adolescentes está diretamente relacionada às condições de acesso, assim como às características das ações desenvolvidas pelos serviços de saúde. Assim como há necessidade da implantação de serviços vinculados à promoção de saúde, pautados pela equidade e integralidade, é necessária a implantação de serviços de urgência que não simplesmente intervenham na dor de forma mutiladora, mas a encarem como mecanismo de estímulo ao desenvolvimento de procedimentos de prevenção das doenças bucais.