Brazilian external sector so far in the XXIst century

Policies towards the external sector have maintained their basic characteristics since the beginning of the present decade, although emphasis has been given to some specific aspects. Little doubt remains that the positive outcome - at least until recently – has been clearly a result of the country having profited from very favorable circumstances in the international scenario. This article discusses the main features of the external sector of the Brazilian economy, regarding trade flows, foreign investment, the internationalization of Brazilian entrepreneurial groups and the short-term financial requirements in foreign currencies.

The influence of capital origin on Brazilian foreign trade patterns

Includes bibliography

Knowledge-based risk management: Survey on Brazilian software development enterprises

A risks management, carried on in an effective way, leads the software development to success and may influence on the organization. The knowledge takes part of such a process as a way to help taking decisions. This research aimed to analyze the use of Knowledge Management techniques to the Risk Management in software projects development and the possible influence on the enterprise revenue. It had, as its main studying subject, Brazilian incubated and graduated software developing enterprises. The chosen research method was the Survey type. Multivariate statistical methods were used for the treatment and analysis of the obtained results, this way identifying the most significant factors, that is, enterprise's achievement constraining factors and those outcome achievement ones. Among the latter we highlight the knowledge methodology, the time of existence of the enterprise, the amount of employees and the knowledge externalization. The results encourage contributing actions to the increasing of financial revenue. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

Changes on facial profile in the mixed dentition, from natural growth and induced by Balters' bionator appliance

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the facial profile changes induced by Balters' bionator appliance in Class II division 1 patients, at mixed dentition stage. Methods: The sample consisted of 28 prepubertal individuals at stages 1 and 2 of skeletal maturation (CVM), which were divided in two groups. The experimental group consisted of 14 individuals (7 boys and 7 girls, initial mean age of 8y12m) which were treated with Balters' bionator appliance for 14.7 months. The effects of treatment were compared to a control group of 14 subjects (7 boys and 7 girls, initial mean age of 8y5m) with Class II malocclusion, division 1, not orthodontically treated, which were followed up for 15.4 months. The statistical analysis was performed using Student's t test, at a significance level of 5%. Results: The results showed that the Balters' bionator appliance promoted a significant increase on the mentolabial angle, in addition to demonstrating a tendency to reduce the facial skeletal convexity, to restrict the maxillary growth and to increase the nasolabial angle and the lower anterior facial height. Conclusion: It can be concluded that the Balters' bionator appliance improved the facial profile of children treated at mixed dentition stage. © 2013 Dental Press Journal of Orthodontics.

Report of the ECLAC/CCST workshop on the pharmaceutical sector in the Caribbean, 14-19 March 1986, Havana, Cuba

Presenta las recomendaciones de la reunion en la que se trato el rol del CCCT en la promocion del intercambio de informacion, el estrechamiento de la asistencia tecnica entre los paises de la region, y el de aunar los esfuerzos de los cientificos en la busqueda de soluciones a los problemas comunes en el sector farmaceutico.

A evolução recente do setor bancário no Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the energy sector in the Caribbean

The present report assesses the economic and social impacts of climate change on the energy sector in Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. In the study, the Artificial Neural Network methodology was employed to model the relationship between climate change and energy demand. The viability of the actions proposed were assessed using cost benefit analyses based on models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States of America.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

The Caribbean is not homogenous with regard to water resources. The Caribbean climate can be characterized as tropical rainy, with two well-defined seasons, one, rainy, and another, less rainy: these characteristics have specificities according to the geographical location of each country. The rainy, tropical character of the Caribbean climate may suggest that there are enough water resources to satisfy life requirements. Notwithstanding, the availability and distribution of water depends on geological and geographical factors that—given the insular character and characteristics of each country—make water resources both vulnerable and limited.

The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

The impact of climate change on the water sector in the Caribbean

This study econometrically analyses the projected impact of climate change on the water sector of nine Caribbean countries to 2100: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Montserrat, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia, and Trinidad and Tobago. Overall, all countries, with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago, are expected to suffer aggregate losses as result of climate change in the early periods ca. 2020 under one or more scenarios. Over time, some countries experience declining negative impacts, as in the case of Guyana under the B2 scenario. Some countries, such as the Dominican Republic, is projected to suffer increasing losses under the B2 scenario and, for others, the impacts do not follow a defined trend. The A2 scenario offers the best outcome for all countries, except Jamaica (where BAU is most desirable), Montserrat (which performs most poorly under the A2 scenario), and the Netherlands Antilles, which does best under the B2 case. Overall, relative to 2006, the total demand for water in the Caribbean is expected to fall by 2030 by 11.3% to approximately 12,967 million cubic meters. This is due to the expected fall in agricultural water demand by approximately 36% in that period. However, by 2050, total water demand for the Caribbean will again exceed the 2006 level by approximately 4% to 14,896.33 106 m3. By 2100, water demand will increase almost fivefold to approximately 69,233.69 106 m3. Climate change is expected to affect all countries in the Caribbean. In some cases, there will be positive impacts that may continue to increase over time and, in other cases, the impact will be negative and worsen over time. Overall, the agricultural sector is expected to suffer the worst losses over any scenario, whilst growth in the industrial sectors is expected to be significant and contribute the most to increasing water demand over time.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines

Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.