Explorations in a meaning making system: Kerry as an entrepreneurial platform and the equine sector as a cluster

This Portfolio is about the changes that can be supported and achieved through transformational education that impacts on personal, professional and organisational levels. Having lived through an era of tremendous change over the second half of the twentieth century and into the twenty-first the author has a great drawing board to contemplate in the context of professional career experience as an engineer. The ability to engage in ‘subject-object’ separation is the means by which Kegan (1994, 2009) explains that transformation takes place and the Essays in this Portfolio aim to support and bring about such change. Exploration of aspects of ‘Kerry’ is the material selected to both challenge support change in the way of knowing from being subject to certain information and knowledge that to being able to consider it more objectively. The task of being able to distance judgement about the economy and economic development of Kerry was facilitated by various readings around of a number of key thinkers including Kegan, Drucker, Porter and Penrose. The central themes of Kerry or the potential for economic development are built into each Essay. Essay One focuses on reflections of Kerry life - on Kerry people within and without Kerry - and events as they affected understandings of how people related to and worked with one another. These reflections formed the basis for transformational goals identified which required a shift from an engineering mindset to encompass an economics-based view. In Essay Two knowledge of economic concepts is developed by exploring the writings of Drucker, Penrose, and Porter with pertinence to considering economic development generally, and for Kerry in particular in the form of an ‘entrepreneurial platform’. The concepts and theories were the basis of explorations presented in Essays Three and Four. Essay Three focuses on Kerry’s potential for economic development give its current economic profile and includes results from interviews with selected businesses. Essay Four is an exercise in the application of Porter’s ‘Cluster’ concept to the equine sector.

CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States

Given the increases in spatial resolution and other improvements in climate modeling capabilities over the last decade since the CMIP3 simulations were completed, CMIP5 provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future conditions. With participation from over 20 modeling groups and more than 40 global models, CMIP5 represents the latest and most ambitious coordinated international climate model intercomparison exercise to date. Observations dating back to 1900 show that the temperatures in the twenty-first century have the largest spatial extent of record breaking and much above normal mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum or minimum daily temperature is one measure of changes in rare temperature extremes.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Feeding selectivity of bivalve larvae on natural plankton assemblages in the Western English Channel

Meroplankton, including bivalve larvae, are an important and yet understudied component of coastal marine food webs. Understanding the baseline of meroplankton ecology is imperative to establish and predict their sensitivity to local and global marine stressors. Over an annual cycle (October 2009–September 2010), bivalve larvae were collected from the Western Channel Observatory time series station L4 (50°15.00′N, 4°13.02′W). The morphologically similar larvae were identified by analysis of the 18S nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene, and a series of incubation experiments were conducted to determine larval ingestion rates on natural plankton assemblages. Complementary gut content analysis was performed using a PCR-based method for detecting prey DNA both from field-collected larvae and those from the feeding experiments. Molecular identification of bivalve larvae showed the community composition to change over the course of the sampling period with domination by Phaxas in winter and higher diversity in autumn. The larvae selected for nanoeukaryotes (2–20 µm) including coccolithophores (<20 µm) which together comprised >75 % of the bivalve larvae diet. Additionally, a small percentage of carbon ingested originated from heterotrophic ciliates (<30 µm). The molecular analysis of bivalve larvae gut content provided increased resolution of identification of prey consumed and demonstrated that the composition of prey consumed established through bottle incubations conferred with that established from in situ larvae. Despite changes in bivalve larvae community structure, clearance rates of each prey type did not change significantly over the course of the experiment, suggesting different bivalve larvae species may consume similar prey.

Biomonitoring of air pollutants by using lichens (Evernia prunastri) in areas between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities in Morocco.

In this study, Evernia prunastri, a lichen growing in its natural habitat in Morocco was analysed for the concentration of five heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu and Cr) from eleven sites between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities. The control site was Dar Essalam, an isolated area with low traffic density and dense vegetation. In the investigated areas, the concentration of heavy metals was correlated with vehicular traffic, industrial activity and urbanization. The total metal concentration was highest in Sidi Yahya, followed by Mohammedia and Bouznika. The coefficient of variation was higher for Pb and lower for Cu, Zn and Fe. The concentrations of most heavy metals in the thalli differed significantly between sites (p<0.01). Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a significant correlation between heavy metal accumulation and atmospheric purity index. This study demonstrated also that the factors most strongly affecting the lichen flora were traffic density, the petroleum industry and paper factories in these areas. Overall, these results suggest that the index of atmospheric purity and assessment of heavy metals in lichen thalli are good indicators of the air quality at the studied sites.

Breaking the boundaries: Geographical approaches to integrating 200 years of the Census

The census and similar sources of data have been published for two centuries so the information that they contain should provide an unparalleled insight into the changing population of Britain over this time period. To date, however, the seemingly trivial problem of changes in boundaries has seriously hampered the use of these sources as they make it impossible to create long run time series of spatially detailed data. The paper reviews methodologies that attempt to resolve this problem by using geographical information systems and areal inter-polation to allow the reallocation of data from one set of administrative units onto another. This makes it possible to examine change over time for a standard geography and thus it becomes possible to unlock the spatial detail and the temporal depth that are held in the census and in related sources.

Error sensitive historical GIS: Identifying areal interpolation errors in time series data

Historical GIS has the potential to re-invigorate our use of statistics from historical censuses and related sources. In particular, areal interpolation can be used to create long-run time-series of spatially detailed data that will enable us to enhance significantly our understanding of geographical change over periods of a century or more. The difficulty with areal interpolation, however, is that the data that it generates are estimates which will inevitably contain some error. This paper describes a technique that allows the automated identification of possible errors at the level of the individual data values.

Trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy in Northern Ireland, 1981-1997

We describe trends in the prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) by birth weight group, and in the severity of motor impairments and presence of associated intellectual impairment, in Northern Ireland from 1981 to 1997 (n=909; 510 males, 399 females; total population 415 936 live births) using data from a population-based register of CP. Children with suspected CP or who died before 1 year of age and those with CP of postneonatal origin were excluded. Prevalence of CP was 2.2 per 1000 live births without significant change over time. Among very-low-birthweight (<1500g) live births, prevalence was 44.5 per 1000 (95% confidence interval 32.3–59.8) from 1994 to 1997, with evidence of a statistically significant decline in prevalence since the mid- to late 1980s accompanied by a decrease in the severity of motor impairment and likelihood of intellectual impairment. Among moderately-low-birthweight (1500–2499g) children there was weaker evidence of a peak prevalence in the late 1980s. Prevalence among normal-birthweight infants did not change significantly, but outcome in terms of severity of motor impairment and intellectual impairment improved in the 1990s. Occurrence of bilateral spasticity from 1994 to 1997 was associated with greater severity and likelihood of intellectual impairment for normal-birthweight individuals than for low- or very-low-birth weight individuals.

Learning soft computing control strategies in a modular neural network architecture

Modelling and control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a challenging problem since the dynamics of such systems change over their parameter space. Conventional methodologies for designing nonlinear control laws, such as gain scheduling, are effective because the designer partitions the overall complex control into a number of simpler sub-tasks. This paper describes a new genetic algorithm based method for the design of a modular neural network (MNN) control architecture that learns such partitions of an overall complex control task. Here a chromosome represents both the structure and parameters of an individual neural network in the MNN controller and a hierarchical fuzzy approach is used to select the chromosomes required to accomplish a given control task. This new strategy is applied to the end-point tracking of a single-link flexible manipulator modelled from experimental data. Results show that the MNN controller is simple to design and produces superior performance compared to a single neural network (SNN) controller which is theoretically capable of achieving the desired trajectory. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

'Leaving Nothing to Chance'?: Joint Tenancies, The 'Right' of Survivorship and Unilateral Severance

The joint tenancy with its inherent right of survivorship is the most prevalent form of co-ownership in the common law world today. Most couples will be joint tenants of a family home, while relations (such as siblings) who purchase property together may opt for this arrangement. Inter vivos acquisitions aside, the huge intergenerational transfer of wealth within families on death can result in a joint tenancy, and it may also be a convenient estate planning device. The fact that property automatically vests in the surviving joint tenants on death is the reason why many people choose this form of co-ownership. However, there is one serious disadvantage. A joint tenancy is an inflexible form of landholding where relationships sour or family circumstances change over time, and co-owners want their respective `shares' of the property to pass to someone else on death. Where consensual severance is not possible, one joint tenant can sever unilaterally. The latter mechanism is vital in terms of giving effect to the wishes of the severing joint tenant, especially in situations of discord or a breakdown in relations with their fellow co-owners. However, unilateral severance also has serious implications for the non-severing joint tenant(s) who expected to inherit property through survivorship, and can impact significantly on ownership of the home and other family property. This article looks at unilateral severance as a means of subverting the right of survivorship. The focus is on personal and inter-family relationships, and the various legal issues and policy considerations associated with unilateral severance across the common law jurisdictions of Britain, Ireland, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. It assesses the various methods of effecting unilateral severance and proposes specific measures, as well as considering novel arguments for preventing unilateral severance based on contractual agreements to the contrary and proprietary estoppel.

The impact of equity markets and corporate governance on labour market flexibility

Drawing from various literatures, this article explores links between equity markets and labour market flexibility. Various data sources are used to test relationships for a set of OECD countries, controlling for other likely influences on flexibility such as government and industrial relations institutions. The results are generally supportive as regards employment flexibility: equity market trading activity is associated with shorter job tenure, higher activity rates, and greater employment change over the cycle. However, the relationship between equity markets and pay flexibility is less statistically robust to the addition of controls.

Peat multi-proxy data from Mannikjarve bog as indicators of late Holocene climate changes in Estonia

As part of a wider project on European climate change over the past 4500 years, a 4.5-m peat core was taken from a lawn microform on Mannikjarve bog, Estonia. Several methods were used to yield proxy-climate data: (i) a quadrat and leaf-count method for plant macrofossil data, (ii) testate amoebae analysis, and (iii) colorimetric determination of peat humification. These data are provided with an exceptionally high resolution and precise chronology. Changes in bog surface wetness were inferred using Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and zonation of macrofossil data, particularly concerning the occurrence of Sphagnum balticum, and a transfer function for water-table depth for testate amoebae data. Based on the results, periods of high bog surface wetness appear to have occurred at c. 3100, 3010-2990, 2300, 1750-1610, 1510, 14 10, 1110, 540 and 3 10 cal. yr BP, during four longer periods between c. 3170 and 2850 cal. yr BP, 2450 and 2000 cal. yr BP, 1770 and 1530 cal. yr BP and in the period from 880 cal. yr BP until the present. In the period between 1770 and 1530 cal. yr BP. the extension or initiation of a hollow microtope occurred, which corresponds with other research results from Mannikjarve bog. This and other changes towards increasing bog surface wetness may be the responses to colder temperatures and the predominance of a more continental climate in the region, which favoured the development of bog microdepressions and a complex bog microtopography. Located in the border zone of oceanic and continental climatic sectors, in an area almost without land uplift, this study site may provide valuable information about changes in palaeohydrological and palaeoclimatological conditions in the northern parts of the eastern Baltic Sea region.

Validity of a 1 minute walk test for children with cerebral palsy.

The concurrent validity of a 1 minute walk test at a child's maximum walking speed was assessed in children with bilateral spastic cerebral palsy (BSCP). The distance covered during the 1 minute walk test was compared with the children's gross motor function as assessed by the Gross Motor Function Measure (GMFM). Twenty-four male and 10 female children with CP (mean age 11y, range 4 to 16y) participated in the study. Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels were; level I (n=3), level II (n=17), level III (n=10), and level IV (n=4). Participants had clinical diagnoses of symmetrical diplegia (n=19), asymmetrical diplegia (n=14), and quadriplegia (n=1). Results showed a significant correlation between GMFM score and the distance covered during the 1 minute walk (r=0.92; p<0.001). There was also a significant decrease in the distance walked with increasing GMFCS level (p<0.001). We concluded that the 1 minute walk test is a valid measure for assessing functional ability in children with ambulatory BSCP. Its cost-effectiveness and user friendliness make it a potentially useful tool in the clinical setting. Further study needs to address its reliability and ability to detect change over time.

Children’s Reasoning About the Temporal Order of Past and Future Events

Four- and five-year-olds completed two sets of tasks that involved reasoning about the temporal order in which events had occurred in the past or were to occur in the future. Four-year-olds succeeded on the tasks that involved reasoning about the order of past events but not those that involved reasoning about the order of future events, whereas 5-year-olds passed both types of tasks. Individual children who failed the past-event tasks were not particularly likely to fail the more difficult future-event tasks. However, children's performance on the reasoning tasks was predictive of their performance on a task assessing their comprehension of the terms “before” and “after.” Our results suggest that there may be a developmental change over this age range in the ability to flexibly represent and reason about the before-and-after relationships between events.

Evaluating periocidities in peat-based climate proxy records.

Proxy records derived from ombrotrophic peatlands provide important insights into climate change over decadal to millennial timescales. We present mid- to late- Holocene humification data and testate amoebae-derived water table records from two peatlands in Northern Ireland. We examine the repli- cation of periodicities in these proxy climate records, which have been precisely linked through teph- rochronology. Age-depth models are constructed using a Bayesian piece-wise linear accumulation model and chronological errors are calculated for each profile. A Lomb-Scargle Fourier transform-based spectral analysis is used to test for statistically significant periodicities in the data. Periodicities of c. 130, 180, 260, 540 and 1160 years are present in at least one proxy record at each site. The replication of these peri- odicities provides persuasive evidence that they are a product of allogenic climate controls, rather than internal peatland dynamics. A technique to estimate the possible level of red-noise in the data is applied and demonstrates that the observed periodicities cannot be explained by a first-order autoregressive model. We review the periodicities in the light of those reported previously from other marine and terrestrial climate proxy archives to consider climate forcing parameters. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.