Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Fifteenth census of the United States: 1930. Census of agriculture. The Negro farmer in the United States.

Running title: The Negro farmer.

1980 census of population and housing : users' guide.

"PHC80-R1-A."

1990 census of population and housing.

"Census '90"--Cover.

Census of population, 1960. number of inhabitants, general population characteristics, general social and economic characteristics, and detailed characteristics.

A report was issued for each of the fifty states, for Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Canal Zone, and for the U.S. Summary.

Census of the city of Bombay, taken 21st February 1872.

Preservation photocopy.

100 years of data processing : the punchcard century /

Mode of access: Internet.

Annual report for the scholastic year ...

Special report, Jan. 1871, takes place of Annual report for 1870.

Locating the Seattle Fault in Bellevue, WA: Combining geomorphic indicators with borehole data

The Seattle Fault is an active east-west trending reverse fault zone that intersects both Seattle and Bellevue, two highly populated cities in Washington. Rupture along strands of the fault poses a serious threat to infrastructure and thousands of people in the region. Precise locations of fault strands are still poorly constrained in Bellevue due to blind thrusting, urban development, and/or erosion. Seismic reflection and aeromagnetic surveys have shed light on structural geometries of the fault zone in bedrock. However, the fault displaces both bedrock and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits, and seismic data are poor indicators of the locations of fault strands within the unconsolidated strata. Fortunately, evidence of past fault strand ruptures may also be recorded indirectly by fluvial processes and should also be observable in the subsurface. I analyzed hillslope and river geomorphology using LiDAR data and ArcGIS to locate surface fault traces and then compare/correlate these findings to subsurface offsets identified using borehole data. Geotechnical borings were used to locate one fault offset and provide input to a cross section of the fault constructed using Rockworks software. Knickpoints, which may correlate to fault rupture, were found upstream of this newly identified fault offset as well as upstream of a previously known fault segment.

A INCLUSÃO ESCOLAR NA ESFERA PÚBLICA: CONCEPÇÕES E POSSIBILIDADES DE CONCRETIZAÇÃO

O presente estudo constitui-se uma análise sobre a Política de Inclusão do Aluno com Necessidade Educacional Especial (NEE) numa escola da rede regular de ensino. O objetivo central foi compreender os princípios e as propostas que definem a política nacional de educação especial, focando a inclusão dos portadores de necessidades educacionais especiais na rede regular de ensino procurando verificar quais dimensões de inclusão estão presentes no discurso tanto na documentação quanto na prática sobre inclusão. Inicialmente, a pesquisa procurou levantar, relatar e analisar os materiais bibliográficos publicados sobre as questões relativas à inclusão do aluno com NEE no sistema regular de ensino, principalmente a partir de 1988 período em que a Constituição Federal elege como um dos seus princípios a igualdade de condições de acesso e permanência na escola até 2006, quando dados publicados pelo Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisas Educacionais (INEP) comprovam que houve um aumento significativo das matrículas destes alunos nas escolas regulares. Entrevistas, depoimentos, documentos federais e municipais e dados censitários foram utilizados na análise. Através de algumas categorias de análise tiradas dos depoimentos foi possível identificar a socialização do indivíduo por meio da garantia do direito e integração à concepção de inclusão mais predominante. A necessidade de atendimento especializado ao aluno e aos que venham trabalhar com ele e preocupação com a falta de orientação no trabalho foi apontado como maior dificuldade. Entretanto, mesmo apresentando alguns problemas, evidencia-se uma posição favorável à inclusão dos alunos com NEE na educação regular na unidade pesquisada destacando a aceitação e as providências que a escola vem tomando quanto às adaptações realizadas para garantir educação de qualidade e acessibilidade. O desafio que se coloca às unidades de educação regular com a matrícula dos alunos com NEE é que estas possam contribuir para a efetivação deste direito por meio de uma educação que contribua para uma sociedade menos excludente.(AU)

Modelling wind direction from satellite scatterometer data

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we apply two novel techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Neural network-based wind vector retrieval from satellite scatterometer data

Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.

GTM-based data visualisation with incomplete data

We analyse how the Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) can be modified to cope with missing values in the training data. Our approach is based on an Expectation -Maximisation (EM) method which estimates the parameters of the mixture components and at the same time deals with the missing values. We incorporate this algorithm into a hierarchical GTM. We verify the method on a toy data set (using a single GTM) and a realistic data set (using a hierarchical GTM). The results show our algorithm can help to construct informative visualisation plots, even when some of the training points are corrupted with missing values.

Negative data in DEA:a directional distance approach applied to bank branches

This paper is drawn from the use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in helping a Portuguese bank to manage the performance of its branches. The bank wanted to set targets for the branches on such variables as growth in number of clients, growth in funds deposited and so on. Such variables can take positive and negative values but apart from some exceptions, traditional DEA models have hitherto been restricted to non-negative data. We report on the development of a model to handle unrestricted data in a DEA framework and illustrate the use of this model on data from the bank concerned.

Compilation of planktonic foraminiferal census counts from the Southern Hemisphere Oceans

We present an improved database of planktonic foraminiferal census counts from the Southern Hemisphere Oceans (SHO) from 15°S to 64°S. The SHO database combines 3 existing databases. Using this SHO database, we investigated dissolution biases that might affect faunal census counts. We suggest a depth/[DCO3]2- threshold of ~3800 m/[DCO3]2- = ~-10 to -5 µmol/kg for the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and ~4000 m/[DCO3]2- = ~0 to 10 µmol/kg for the Atlantic Ocean, under which core-top assemblages can be affected by dissolution and are less reliable for paleo-sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions. We removed all core-tops beyond these thresholds from the SHO database. This database has 598 core-tops and is able to reconstruct past SST variations from 2° to 25.5°C, with a root mean square error of 1.00°C, for annual temperatures. To inspect dissolution affects SST reconstruction quality, we tested the data base with two "leave-one-out" tests, with and without the deep core-tops. We used this database to reconstruct Summer SST (SSST) over the last 20 ka, using the Modern Analog Technique method, on the Southeast Pacific core MD07-3100. This was compared to the SSST reconstructed using the 3 databases used to compile the SHO database. Thus showing that the reconstruction using the SHO database is more reliable, as its dissimilarity values are the lowest. The most important aspect here is the importance of a bias-free, geographic-rich, database. We leave this dataset open-ended to future additions; the new core-tops must be carefully selected, with their chronological frameworks, and evidence of dissolution assessed.