Docagem ou afretamento de UMS: a escolha ótima para a extensão da vida útil das plataformas de petróleo de campos marítimos maduros sob o enfoque das opções reais

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor a utilização do arcabouço teórico das opções reais e a posterior aplicação do modelo binomial na avaliação de projetos relacionados à exploração e produção de petróleo, tendo em vista a flexibilidade gerencial, os riscos e as incertezas técnicas e de mercado que norteiam o setor petrolífero upstream. Ademais, a aplicação do modelo proposto capta o papel crucial da volatilidade do preço do petróleo na avaliação da decisão de investimento e revela a existência dos custos irrecuperáveis extremos decorrentes do ativo real, neste caso, a unidade marítima de petróleo. Assim, com o intuito de prolongar o ciclo de produção de unidade marítima de petróleo com características preestabelecidas, propõe-se a avaliação econômica de duas alternativas tecnológicas para a extensão de vida útil da plataforma marítima objeto de estudo, sendo estas alternativas tratadas como opções de expansão. As alternativas propostas são duas: o afretamento da UMS (Unidade de Manutenção e Segurança) acoplada à plataforma e a docagem da plataforma a partir da desmobilização, isto é, o descomissionamento, e envio da plataforma ao estaleiro. Na aplicação da primeira opção, a UMS se configura em uma embarcação equipada com toda a estrutura necessária para a realização de serviço de manutenção e revitalização, sem que ocorra interrupção da produção de petróleo. Por outro lado, a opção de descomissionamento é desprovida de receita até o retorno da plataforma do estaleiro. No que tange à metodologia do presente trabalho, o modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro é aplicado considerando a receita proveniente da produção de petróleo de uma plataforma marítima com sistema de produção flutuante com 14 poços, sendo 10 produtores e 4 injetores e sustentada por 8 linhas de ancoragem. Também é definida a volatilidade do projeto como sendo a volatilidade do preço do petróleo. Por fim, as opções de expansão podem ser exercidas a qualquer momento antes da data de expiração das opções, data esta coincidente para ambas as opções e referente ao término de contrato de afretamento da UMS, que corresponde ao período de cinco anos. Neste período de cinco anos, as duas alternativas são exercidas a partir do primeiro ano, com receitas e custos distintos em virtude das especificidades decorrentes das alternativas tecnológicas propostas. A partir da aplicação do modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro sob o enfoque das opções reais, as duas alternativas tecnológicas são tratadas como opções americanas na avaliação econômica da revitalização e manutenção da plataforma marítima. Também realiza-se a análise tradicional do VPL para as duas alternativas. As duas análises apontam para a escolha da UMS como alternativa ótima de expansão da vida útil da plataforma. Ademais, a análise sob o enfoque das opções reais capta um valor adicional em ambas as alternativas tecnológicas, fruto das características inerentes à indústria petrolífera. Quanto à estrutura do trabalho em questão se divide em cinco capítulos: introdução, referencial teórico, metodologia, apresentação dos resultados e as considerações finais.

Caracterização ambiental de bancos areno-lamosos nos campos petrolíferos de Macau e Serra (RN), como subsídio às medidas mitigadoras ao processo erosivo

On Rio Grande do Norte northern coast the process of sediment transport are intensely controlled by wind and sea (waves and currents) action, causing erosion and shoreline morphological instability. Due to the importance of such coastal zone it was realized the multi-spectral mapping and physical-chemical characterization of mudflats and mangroves aiming to support the mitigating actions related to the containment of the erosive process on the oil fields of Macau and Serra installed at the study area. The multi-spectral bands of 2000 and 2008 LANDSAT 5 TM images were submitted on the several digital processing steps and RGB color compositions integrating spectral bands and Principal Components. Such processing methodology was important to the mapping of different units on surface, together with field works. It was possible to make an analogy of the spectral characteristics of wetlands with vegetations areas (mangrove), showing the possibility to make a restoration of this area, contributing with the environmental monitoring of that ecosystem. The maps of several units were integrated in GIS environment at 1:60,000 scale, including the classification of features according to the presence or absence of vegetation cover. Thus, the strategy of methodology established that there are 10.13 km2 at least of sandy-muddy and of these approximately 0.89 km2 with the possibility to be used in a reforestation of typical flora of mangrove. The physical-chemical characterization showed areas with potential to introduce local species of mangrove and they had a pH above neutral with a mean of 8.4. The characteristic particle size is sand in the fine fractions, the high levels of carbonate, organic matter and major and trace element in general are concentrated where the sediment had the less particles size, showing the high correlation that those elements have with smaller particles of sediment. The application of that methodological strategy is relevant to the better understanding of features behavior and physical-chemical data of sediment samples collected on field allow the analysis of efficiency/capability of sandy-muddy to reforestation with local mangrove species for mitigation of the erosive action and coastal processes on the areas occupied by the oil industry

Correlações nos dfa de diversos perfis geológicos. estudo de caso: Bacia de Campos - RJ

This work aims to study the fluctuation structure of physical properties of oil well profiles. It was used as technique the analysis of fluctuations without trend (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis - DFA). It has been made part of the study 54 oil wells in the Campo de Namorado located in the Campos Basin in Rio de Janeiro. We studied five sections, namely: sonic, density, porosity, resistivity and gamma rays. For most of the profiles , DFA analysis was available in the literature, though the sonic perfile was estimated with the aid of a standard algorithm. The comparison between the exponents of DFA of the five profiles was performed using linear correlation of variables, so we had 10 comparisons of profiles. Our null hypothesis is that the values of DFA for the various physical properties are independent. The main result indicates that no refutation of the null hypothesis. That is, the fluctuations observed by DFA in the profiles do not have a universal character, that is, in general the quantities display a floating structure of their own. From the ten correlations studied only the profiles of density and sonic one showed a significant correlation (p> 0.05). Finally these results indicate that one should use the data from DFA with caution, because, in general, based on geological analysis DFA different profiles can lead to disparate conclusions

Avaliação ambiental de manguezais adjacentes aos campos petrolíferos de Macau e Serra (RN), como subsídio às medidas mitigadoras ao processo erosivo

Among the various effects caused by the climate change and human intervention, the mangrove ecosystem changes through of the years has been worth mentioning, which hasn t known which are the pros and cons for the adjacent coastal and estuarine environments yet. It happens due to the present dynamism in these areas, besides of the difficult understanding of the processes associated with evolution. This study aimed to environmentally evaluate adjacent mangroves from the Macau and Serra oil fields, located on Rio Grande do Norte northern coast, to support the mitigating actions related to the containment of the erosive process, as well as, according to the principles of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), to assess the amount of atmospheric carbon sequestered by the studied ecosystem. An inventory was conducted through mangrouve mapping which has supplied this research, especially regarding to the structural characterization of mangrove areas. To understand the local mangrove behavior in a greater level detail, techniques of remote sensing, GIS and GPS were used to make an analogy between the current and past states of the mangrove studied, allowing to make anticipated projections for the future impacts or changes in that region. This study combined data from multispectral LANDSAT 5 TM, Landsat 7 ETM+ with radar microwave data from SAR RADARSAT-1, which increased the interpretation capacity of the data from optical sensor systems. The interpretations have been supported by the data field, representing a better and innovative methodology for the environmental and taxonomic characterization of mangrove forests considered. The results reveal that mangroves of the Ponta do Tubarão Sustainable Development Reserve are biologically representative areas and providing a variety of benefits, especially for local communities, constituting the priority sites for actions development aimed at conservation. They also have been showing the necessity to make mitigating measures in order to recover degraded areas through reforestation or creating new areas of mangrove, as currently 7.1% of the mangrove forests studied are dead or in an advanced state of decomposition. The amount of atmospheric carbon sequestered proved very significant when analyzed for the whole area, which is able to sequester atmospheric 4,294,458 Ton CO2 per year

Estudo da viabilidade econômica em campos maduros

When it comes to oil and gas in Brazil is almost certain that we are referring to activities in deep waters off the coast of Campos, Rio de Janeiro, the main field of action of PETROBRAS and a small number of multinational oil companies . Since the Law 9.478/97 allows, by means of concessions, that other companies other than Petrobras, to explore and produce oil and gas domestically. Soon it moved, then the private companies that want small and medium-sized businesses to invest in such activities, forming a segment of independent producers, as occurs in other countries. In this context, this work aims at making an economic feasibility study, is currently analyzing how this thread and focus on the factors that contribute to its development as well as those that constitute barriers. To this end, we conducted a survey examining some mature fields that are in production in order to capture cost information in the phases of project, operation and abandonment. The work also presents an analysis of the results obtained in the survey, identifying the costs higher. With the results obtained through the study used economic engineering tools such as NPV and IRR, using a variety of design scenarios, to study the economic viability of these fields. In scenario 4 was set a production of 4.0 m³ / d of oil, which is an expected average production for several of these fields, whose minimum value of a barrel of oil, to enable this field, was $ 55.00, this value well below what was being practiced in the market today.

Adam Smith visto por Roberto Campos: a (re)criação do mito e as necessidades do capitalismo

This work aims at analyzing how Adam Smith, one of the founders of the liberal regime was seen by Roberto Campos, one of the patriarchs of Brazilian liberalism. In this sense, it will be shown how and why the legacy of Scotland was used to legitimize the new pattern of accumulation necessary to capitalism from the second half of the twentieth century on. So, it is the intention to make explicit that the changes in Campos discursive form are consistent with the requirements of capitalism in crisis and were fundamental in the creation of another common sense. To achieve these goals it will be assessed in what way the liberal rhetoric of the Brazilian, harmonized with foreign authors with the same vision, has become an important weapon to transform Smith into a myth in contrast to the political and economic criteria advocated by the same, but valuable to what Roberto Campos intended

Análise jurídico-constitucional do fomento aos campos maduros de produção de petróleo no Brasil

The oil activities in Brazil had been started in an intensive way in the end of the 30 s and in the beginning of the 40 s. Many of the brazilians fields discovered in the past are nowadays in decline. They are called ―mature fields‖. These fields, because of the decline situation that characterizes them, are not interesting for the majors. The majors want the big fields and big productions. On the other hand, they could be interesting for the small and medium enterprises. The mature oil fields are instruments of development, they have oil and the oil production is an activity connected with many social and economics benefits: jobs, taxes, royalties, etc. The Brazilian State, in this context, needs to realize actions to promote the activities in the mature oil fields, especially with the work of the small and mediums enterprises. Many of the onshore brazilian mature fields are located at the Northeast, a region matched by many social and economic problems. The activities in the mature fields of the Northeast Region could solve some of its problems. The present research analyses the mature oil fields and its situations in Brazil, making criticisms and suggestions. The methodology adopted is theoretical and descriptive, with literature review, case law and legislation (Constituição Federal de 1988, ―Law of the Oil‖). This research examines the following points: mature fields rounds and its documents, name and definition of the mature fields, definition of small and medium enterprises, environmental aspects, concentration of certain activities of the sector and the royalties

O princípio constitucional da redução das desigualdades regionais e os campos maduro-marginais de petróleo: aspectos regulatórios e fiscais

Under the circumstances of the desestatization that penetrate Brazilian economy in the 90‟s, new features in the monopoly of oil by the Union were designed by the constitutional amendment number 9. of 1995. This deep change in the legal regime of oil sector brought the possibility of entrance to small and medium size producers in this industry, especially through the production activities developed in mature and marginal fields of oil, which are located mainly in northeast region of Brazil. Considering that the intervention of state over the economy finds its guidelines and limits in Federal Constitution disposals, the present work investigated in which way states regulation, mainly through taxation rules, has obeyed the constitutional regime in force, and specially, the reduction of regional inequalities principle. By mean, firstly, of an analysis of central concepts (mature fields, marginal fields, small and medium size producers) we observed that the imprecision over the conceptual aspect has constituted an obstacle to a specific states‟ regulation, directed to this newborn class of producers, whose growth has been pursuit by the state. That is verified in the case of concession procedures, and also, concerning the taxation system applied to small and medium size producers. Examining the main constitutional principles related to this universe which are the legality, equality, privileged treatment to small enterprises, contributive capacity, and reduction of regional inequalities we conclude that it is legally possible, a truly specific regulation, including a special taxation regime, to the small and medium size producers whose activities are concentrate over mature-marginal fields, aiming the concretization of the Brazilian state main goals