Recurrence of status epilepticus: Prognostic role and outcome predictors.

OBJECTIVE: Predictors of morbidity and mortality after status epilepticus (SE) have been studied extensively in hospital- and population-based cohorts. However, little attention has been directed toward SE recurrence after an incident episode. We investigated clinical and demographic characteristics of patients presenting SE recurrence and its specific prognostic role. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened our prospective registry of consecutive adults with SE between April 2006 and February 2014. Demographic and clinical data were compared between incident and recurrent SE episodes; risk of SE recurrence was assessed through survival analysis, and the prognostic role of SE recurrence with multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the incident cohort (509 patients), 68 (13%) experienced recurrent SE. The cumulative recurrence rate over 4 years was 32%. Recurrence risk was significantly reduced after an acute SE etiology (hazard ratio [HR] 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82; p = 0.005), and was borderline increased in women (HR 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.65; p = 0.06). Although recurrent SE episodes showed lower morbidity and mortality, prognosis was independently related to Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and potentially fatal etiology, but not to SE recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides class III evidence that SE recurrence involves a significant proportion of patients, and that recurrence risk is independently associated with chronic etiology and to a lesser extent with female gender. However, contrary to underlying cause and SE severity, SE recurrence per se does not independently correlate with outcome. Early identification of patients at higher risk of SE recurrence may influence their management during follow-up.

Prevalence, predictors, and consequences of long-term refusal of antipsychotic treatment in first-episode psychosis.

OBJECTIVE: Studies investigating medication adherence in psychosis are limited by the need of a certain degree of medication adherence and the inclusion of mostly multiple-episode patients. By contrast, noninformed consent, epidemiological studies in first-episode psychosis (FEP) allow the assessment of an important subgroup of patients who persistently refuse antipsychotic medication and thereby never receive an adequate antipsychotic trial. The present study aims to assess the prevalence and predictors of such a "medication refusal" subgroup and its association with illness outcome. METHODS: The present file audit study assessed medication adherence in an epidemiological cohort of 605 FEP patients who were treated within the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre for up to 18 months. Medication adherence was categorized into full adherence, nonadherence, and persistent medication refusal. Predictors were analyzed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: During the 18-month treatment period, 204 patients (33.7%) were fully adherent, 287 (47.4%) displayed at least 1 phase of nonadherence, and 114 patients (18.8%) were persistent medication refusers. Poor premorbid functioning, comorbid substance use, and poor insight predicted both medication refusal and nonadherence; a forensic history and no previous contact to psychiatric care were specifically predictive of medication refusal. With respect to illness outcome, nonadherent patients were worse off when compared with fully adherent patients, and medication refusers were even worse off compared with nonadherent patients. CONCLUSIONS: Within a nonselected epidemiological FEP cohort, almost 20% of patients are persistent medication refusers. The found predictors may help to identify the individual risk of persistent medication refusal and may enable an early (preventive) treatment adaptation.

Metabolic predictors of obesity. Contribution of resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, and fuel utilization to four-year weight gain of post-obese and never-obese women.

This prospective study was designed to identify abnormalities of energy expenditure and fuel utilization which distinguish post-obese women from never-obese controls. 24 moderately obese, postmenopausal, nondiabetic women with a familial predisposition to obesity underwent assessments of body composition, fasting and postprandial energy expenditure, and fuel utilization in the obese state and after weight loss (mean 12.9 kg) to a post-obese, normal-weight state. The post-obese women were compared with 24 never-obese women of comparable age and body composition. Four years later, without intervention, body weight was reassessed in both groups. Results indicated that all parameters measured in the post-obese women were similar to the never-obese controls: mean resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, and fasting and postprandial substrate oxidation and insulin-glucose patterns. Four years later, post-obese women regained a mean of 10.9 kg while control subjects remained lean (mean gain 1.7 kg) (P < 0.001 between groups). Neither energy expenditure nor fuel oxidation correlated with 4-yr weight changes, whereas self-reported physical inactivity was associated with greater weight regain. The data suggest that weight gain in obesity-prone women may be due to maladaptive responses to the environment, such as physical inactivity or excess energy intake, rather than to reduced energy requirements.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for chest wall syndrome in primary care.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest wall syndrome (CWS), the main cause of chest pain in primary care practice, is most often an exclusion diagnosis. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction rule for CWS. METHODS: Data from a multicenter clinical cohort of consecutive primary care patients with chest pain were used (59 general practitioners, 672 patients). A final diagnosis was determined after 12 months of follow-up. We used the literature and bivariate analyses to identify candidate predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical prediction rule for CWS. We used data from a German cohort (n = 1212) for external validation. RESULTS: From bivariate analyses, we identified six variables characterizing CWS: thoracic pain (neither retrosternal nor oppressive), stabbing, well localized pain, no history of coronary heart disease, absence of general practitioner's concern, and pain reproducible by palpation. This last variable accounted for 2 points in the clinical prediction rule, the others for 1 point each; the total score ranged from 0 to 7 points. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.83) in the derivation cohort (specificity: 89%; sensitivity: 45%; cut-off set at 6 points). Among all patients presenting CWS (n = 284), 71% (n = 201) had a pain reproducible by palpation and 45% (n = 127) were correctly diagnosed. For a subset (n = 43) of these correctly classified CWS patients, 65 additional investigations (30 electrocardiograms, 16 thoracic radiographies, 10 laboratory tests, eight specialist referrals, one thoracic computed tomography) had been performed to achieve diagnosis. False positives (n = 41) included three patients with stable angina (1.8% of all positives). External validation revealed the ROC curve to be 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79) with a sensitivity of 22% and a specificity of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: This CWS score offers a useful complement to the usual CWS exclusion diagnosing process. Indeed, for the 127 patients presenting CWS and correctly classified by our clinical prediction rule, 65 additional tests and exams could have been avoided. However, the reproduction of chest pain by palpation, the most important characteristic to diagnose CWS, is not pathognomonic.

Molecular predictors of gemcitabine response in pancreatic cancer.

Gemcitabine is one of the most used anti-neoplastic drugs with documented activity in almost all major localizations of cancer. In pancreatic cancer treatment, gemcitabine occupies a prominent place as a first line chemotherapy, partly because of the paucity of other efficacious chemotherapy options. In fact, only a minority of pancreatic cancer patients display a response or even stability of disease with the drug. There are currently no clinically applicable means of predicting which patient will derive a clinical benefit from gemcitabine although several proposed markers have been studied. These markers are proteins involved in drug up-take, activation and catabolism or proteins that define the ability of the cell to undergo apoptosis in response to the drug. Several of these markers are reviewed in this paper. We also briefly discuss the possible role of stem cells in drug resistance to gemcitabine.

Early predictors of outcome in comatose survivors of ventricular fibrillation and non-ventricular fibrillation cardiac arrest treated with hypothermia: a prospective study

OBJECTIVES: Current indications for therapeutic hypothermia (TH) are restricted to comatose patients with cardiac arrest (CA) due to ventricular fibrillation (VF) and without circulatory shock. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the benefit of this treatment in more heterogeneous groups of patients, including those with non-VF rhythms and/or shock and to identify early predictors of outcome in this setting. DESIGN: Prospective study, from December 2004 to October 2006. SETTING: 32-bed medico-surgical intensive care unit, university hospital. PATIENTS: Comatose patients with out-of-hospital CA. INTERVENTIONS: TH to 33 +/- 1 degrees C (external cooling, 24 hrs) was administered to patients resuscitated from CA due to VF and non-VF (including asystole or pulseless electrical activity), independently from the presence of shock. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We hypothesized that simple clinical criteria available on hospital admission (initial arrest rhythm, duration of CA, and presence of shock) might help to identify patients who eventually survive and might most benefit from TH. For this purpose, outcome was related to these predefined variables. Seventy-four patients (VF 38, non-VF 36) were included; 46% had circulatory shock. Median duration of CA (time from collapse to return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC]) was 25 mins. Overall survival was 39.2%. However, only 3.1% of patients with time to ROSC > 25 mins survived, as compared to 65.7% with time to ROSC < or = 25 mins. Using a logistic regression analysis, time from collapse to ROSC, but not initial arrest rhythm or presence of shock, independently predicted survival at hospital discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Time from collapse to ROSC is strongly associated with outcome following VF and non-VF cardiac arrest treated with therapeutic hypothermia and could therefore be helpful to identify patients who benefit most from active induced cooling.

Personality, social values, and marital satisfaction as predictors of parents’ rearing styles

Los estilos de crianza parentales pueden afectar la conducta y socialización de los adolescentes, por lo que es de interés conocer cómo algunas variables psicológicas de los padres se relacionan con los estilos de crianza. Este estudio tiene el objetivo de analizar los estilos de crianza de los padres, valores sociales (prestigio social, orden, benevolencia, y conservadurismo-liberalismo), los cinco grandes factores de personalidad, y la satisfacción de pareja (acuerdo general, afecto, satisfacción, y cohesión) en los padres de adolescentes. Este es un estudio prospectivo basado en método de análisis correlacional. Se encontró que los estilos educativos definidos por el cariño y aceptación se relacionan con los rasgos de personalidad como responsabilidad y estabilidad emocional, alta satisfacción de pareja y preferencia por valores prosociales. Al contrario, los estilos de crianza de sobreprotección y favoritismo se relacionan con baja amabilidad y baja apertura el poco ajuste de pareja con falta de cohesión y valores sociales definidos por falta de benevolencia y preferencia por valores de prestigio social.

Cognitive Predictors and Risk Factors of PTSD Following Stillbirth: A Short-Term Longitudinal Study.

This short-term longitudinal study investigated cognitive predictors and risk factors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in mothers following stillbirth. After a stillbirth at ≥ 24 weeks gestational age, 65 women completed structured clinical interviews and questionnaires assessing PTSD symptoms, cognitive predictors (appraisals, dysfunctional strategies), and risk factors (perceived social support, trauma history, obstetric history) at 3 and 6 months. PTSD symptoms decreased between 3 and 6 months (Cohen's d ranged .34-.52). Regression analyses also revealed a specific positive relationship between Rumination and concurrent frequency of PTSD symptoms (β = .45). Negative Self-View and Negative World-View related positively and Self-Blame related negatively to concurrent number of PTSD symptoms (β = .48, .44, -.45, respectively). Suppression and Distraction predicted a decrease and Numbing predicted an increase in time-lagged number of PTSD symptoms (β = -.33, -.28, .30, respectively). Risk factors for PTSD symptoms were younger age (β = -.25), lower income (β = -.29), fewer previous pregnancies (β = -.31), and poorer perceived social support (β = -.26). Interventions addressing negative appraisals, dysfunctional strategies, and social support are recommended for mothers with PTSD following stillbirth. Knowledge of cognitive predictors and risk factors of PTSD may inform the development of a screening instrument.

Incidence, prevalence and clinical significance of abnormal hematological indices in compensated cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Patients with cirrhosis develop abnormal hematologic indices (HI) from multiple factors, including hypersplenism. We aimed to analyze the sequence of events and determine whether abnormal HI has prog-nostic significance. Methods: We analyzed a database of 213 subjects with compensated cirrhosis without esopha-geal varices. Subjects were followed for approximately 9 years until the development of varices or variceal bleeding or completion of the study; 84 subjects developed varices. Abnormal HI was defined as anemia at baseline (hemoglo-bin,<13.5 g/dL for men and 11.5 g/dL for women), leuko-penia (white blood cell counts,<4000/mm 3 ), or thrombo-cytopenia (platelet counts, < 150,000/mm 3 ). The primary end points were death or transplant surgery. Results: Most subjects had thrombocytopenia at baseline. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that leukopenia occurred by 30 months (95% confidence interval, 18.5-53.6), and anemia occurred by 39.6 months (95% confidence interval, 24.1-49.9). Baseline thrombocytopenia (P .0191) and leukope-nia (P.0383) were predictors of death or transplant, after adjusting for baseline hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), and Child-Pugh scores. After a median of 5 years,a significant difference in death or transplant, mortality,and clinical decompensation was observed in patients who had leukopenia combined with thrombocytopenia at base- line compared with patients with normal HI (P < .0001). HVPG correlated with hemoglobin and white blood cell count (hemoglobin, r 0.35, P < .0001; white blood cell count, r 0.31, P < .0001). Conclusions: Thrombocy-topenia is the most common and first abnormal HI to occurin patients with cirrhosis, followed by leukopenia and anemia. A combination of leukopenia and thrombocytopenia at baselin predicted increased morbidity and mortality.

MYC-IG rearrangements are negative predictors of survival in DLBCL patients treated with immunochemotherapy: a GELA/LYSA study.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) with MYC rearrangement (MYC-R) carries an unfavorable outcome. We explored the prognostic value of the MYC translocation partner gene in a series of MYC-R de novo DLBCL patients enrolled in first-line prospective clinical trials (Groupe d'Etudes des Lymphomes de l'Adulte/Lymphoma Study Association) and treated with rituximab-anthracycline-based chemotherapy. A total of 774 DLBCL cases characterized for cell of origin by the Hans classifier were analyzed using fluorescence in situ hybridization with BCL2, BCL6, MYC, immunoglobulin (IG)K, and IGL break-apart and IGH/MYC, IGK/MYC, and IGL/MYC fusion probes. MYC-R was observed in 51/574 (8.9%) evaluable DLBCL cases. MYC-R cases were predominantly of the germinal center B-cell-like subtype 37/51 (74%) with no distinctive morphologic and phenotypic features. Nineteen cases were MYC single-hit and 32 cases were MYC double-hit (MYC plus BCL2 and/or BCL6) DLBCL. MYC translocation partner was an IG gene in 24 cases (MYC-IG) and a non-IG gene (MYC-non-IG) in 26 of 50 evaluable cases. Noteworthy, MYC-IG patients had shorter overall survival (OS) (P = .0002) compared with MYC-negative patients, whereas no survival difference was observed between MYC-non-IG and MYC-negative patients. In multivariate analyses, MYC-IG predicted poor progression-free survival (P = .0051) and OS (P = .0006) independently from the International Prognostic Index and the Hans classifier. In conclusion, we show in this prospective randomized trial that the adverse prognostic impact of MYC-R is correlated to the MYC-IG translocation partner gene in DLBCL patients treated with immunochemotherapy. These results may have an important impact on the clinical management of DLBCL patients with MYC-R who should be routinely characterized according to MYC partner gene. These trials are individually registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00144807, #NCT01087424, #NCT00169143, #NCT00144755, #NCT00140660, #NCT00140595, and #NCT00135499.

New-onset refractory status epilepticus: Etiology, clinical features, and outcome.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to determine the etiology, clinical features, and predictors of outcome of new-onset refractory status epilepticus. METHODS: Retrospective review of patients with refractory status epilepticus without etiology identified within 48 hours of admission between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2013, in 13 academic medical centers. The primary outcome measure was poor functional outcome at discharge (defined as a score >3 on the modified Rankin Scale). RESULTS: Of 130 cases, 67 (52%) remained cryptogenic. The most common identified etiologies were autoimmune (19%) and paraneoplastic (18%) encephalitis. Full data were available in 125 cases (62 cryptogenic). Poor outcome occurred in 77 of 125 cases (62%), and 28 (22%) died. Predictors of poor outcome included duration of status epilepticus, use of anesthetics, and medical complications. Among the 63 patients with available follow-up data (median 9 months), functional status improved in 36 (57%); 79% had good or fair outcome at last follow-up, but epilepsy developed in 37% with most survivors (92%) remaining on antiseizure medications. Immune therapies were used less frequently in cryptogenic cases, despite a comparable prevalence of inflammatory CSF changes. CONCLUSIONS: Autoimmune encephalitis is the most commonly identified cause of new-onset refractory status epilepticus, but half remain cryptogenic. Outcome at discharge is poor but improves during follow-up. Epilepsy develops in most cases. The role of anesthetics and immune therapies warrants further investigation.

Predictors of trabecular bone score in school children.

UNLABELLED: Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a DXA-based tool that assesses bone texture and reflects microarchitecture. It has been shown to independently predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture in the elderly. In this study, we investigated the determinants of TBS in adolescents. INTRODUCTION: TBS is a gray-level textural measurement derived from lumbar spine DXA images. It appears to be an index of bone microarchitecture that provides skeletal information additional to the standard BMD measurement and clinical risk factors. Our objectives were to characterize the relationship between TBS and both age and pubertal stages and identify other predictors in adolescents. METHODS: We assessed TBS by reanalyzing spine DXA scan images obtained from 170 boys and 168 girls, age range 10-17 years, gathered at study entry and at 1 year, using TBS software. The results are from post hoc analyses obtained using data gathered from a prospective randomized vitamin D trial. Predictors of TBS were assessed using t test or Pearson's correlation and adjusted using regression analyses, as applicable. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population was 13.2 ± 2.1 years, similar between boys and girls. Age, height, weight, sun exposure, spine BMC and BMD, body BMC and BMD, and lean and fat mass are all significantly correlated with TBS at baseline (r = 0.20-0.75, p < 0.035). Correlations mostly noted in late-pubertal stages. However, after adjustment for BMC, age remained an independent predictor only in girls. CONCLUSIONS: In univariate exploratory analyses, age and pubertal stages were determinants of TBS in adolescents. Studies to investigate predictors of TBS and to investigate its value as a prognostic tool of bone fragility in the pediatric population are needed.

Classification models for neurocognitive impairment in HIV infection based on demographic and clinical variables

Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

Duration of anticoagulation after venous thromboembolism in real world clinical practice.

INTRODUCTION: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) carries a considerable risk of recurrence and anticoagulants should be administered for a minimum of three months. Since little is known about real life management of VTE, we aimed to describe current practice in the secondary prevention of VTE. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using the database of an international, prospective registry on patients treated for VTE, RIETE, information was collected on risk factors for VTE and bleeding, anticoagulant treatment, and clinical outcomes during follow up. Multivariate analysis using logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of treatment duration. RESULTS: Of 6944 patients with a first episode of VTE 41.1% had unprovoked VTE, 31.8% had transient risk factors, 27.1% had cancer. After the exclusion of patients who died during the first year of observation, the rate of patients treated for >12 months was 55.1%, 41.9%, and 43.2%, respectively (p<0.001). Pulmonary embolism at presentation, recurrence while on treatment, chronic heart failure and age >65 years were independently associated with treatment for >12 months. Body weight <75 kg, anemia, cancer, and the presence of transient risk factors were associated with treatment for 12 months or less. Major bleeding occurred more frequently than recurrent VTE in patients with VTE secondary to transient risk factors and cancer; fatal bleeding was more frequent than fatal recurrent PE in all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: We observed heterogeneous duration of anticoagulant treatment for the secondary prevention of VTE. A substantial proportion of patients, in particular those with VTE secondary to transient risk factors, may be exposed to a possibly unnecessary risk of bleeding.

Trajectory and predictors of quality of life in first episode psychotic mania.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the trajectory of quality of life (QoL) following a first episode of psychotic mania in bipolar disorder (BD). This 18-month longitudinal study investigated the trajectory of QoL, and the influence of premorbid adjustment and symptoms on 18-month QoL in a cohort of young people experiencing a first episode of psychotic mania. METHODS: As part of an overarching clinical trial, at baseline, sixty participants presenting with a first episode of psychotic mania (BD Type 1 - DSM-IV) completed symptomatic and functional assessments in addition to the Premorbid Adjustment Scale - General Subscale. Symptom measures were repeated at 18-month follow up. QoL was rated using the Quality of Life Scale (QLS) at designated time points. RESULTS: Mean QLS scores at initial measurement (8 weeks) were 61% of the maximum possible score, increasing significantly to 70% at 12 months, and 71.2% at 18-month follow-up. Premorbid adjustment and 18-month depressive symptoms were significantly associated with QoL at 18-month follow-up. LIMITATIONS: Study limitations include the small sample size, inclusion of participants with psychotic mania only, use of measures originally designed for use with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and lack of premorbid or baseline measurement of QoL. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that QoL can be maintained early in BD, and reinforce the importance of assertively treating depressive symptoms throughout the course of this disorder. The emergence of a link between premorbid adjustment and poorer QoL in this cohort highlights the importance of assessing facets of adjustment when planning psychological interventions.