IPH Response to Draft planning policy statement 18 Renewable energy - March 2008

IPH welcomes the Planning Policy Statement 18 Renewable Energy (PPS18) and the opportunity to comment on the publication.  IPH applies a holistic model of health which emphasises a wide range of social determinants, including economic, environmental, social and biological factors. IPH considers that the health impacts of renewable energy should be considered as part of PPS18. We wish to make the following general observations in relation to the Proposed Plan:  IPH welcomes the sustainable approach by the Department of the Environment to encourage and facilitate the provision of renewal energy in Northern Ireland. PPS18 can support the move to reduce pollutants entering the environment. However there is a need to consider wider public health concerns in the adoption of PPS18. Encouraging renewable energy (while balancing this with environmental and conservation concerns) will benefit health locally, and on a global scale. Climate change has been identified as one of the most important public health challenges of the 21st Century and therefore any policy which seeks to address this major issue is welcomed.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming.

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Second differential of the entropy as a criterion for the stability in low-dimensional climate models

The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review

Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Effects of a fire response trait on diversification in replicated radiations.

Fire has been proposed as a factor explaining the exceptional plant species richness found in Mediterranean regions. A fire response trait that allows plants to cope with frequent fire by either reseeding or resprouting could differentially affect rates of species diversification. However, little is known about the generality of the effects of differing fire response on species evolution. We study this question in the Restionaceae, a family that radiated in Southern Africa and Australia. These radiations occurred independently and represent evolutionary replicates. We apply Bayesian approaches to estimate trait-specific diversification rates and patterns of climatic niche evolution. We also compare the climatic heterogeneity of South Africa and Australia. Reseeders diversify faster than resprouters in South Africa, but not in Australia. We show that climatic preferences evolve more rapidly in reseeder lineages than in resprouters and that the optima of these climatic preferences differ between the two strategies. We find that South Africa is more climatically heterogeneous than Australia, independent of the spatial scale we consider. We propose that rapid shifts between states of the fire response trait promote speciation by separating species ecologically, but this only happens when the landscape is sufficiently heterogeneous.

Benthic macroinvertebrates assemblages and macrohabitat connectivity in Mediterranean-climate streams of northern California

Abstract. Drought leads to a loss of longitudinal and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which causes direct or indirect changes in stream ecosystem properties. Changes in macrohabitat availability from a rifflepool sequence to isolated pools are among the most conspicuous consequences of connectivity loss. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were compared among 3 distinct stream macrohabitats (riffles [R], pools connected to riffles [Pc], disconnected pools [Pd]) of 19 Mediterranean-climate sites in northern California to examine the influence of loss of habitat resulting from drought disturbance. At the time of sampling, 10 sites were perennial and included R and Pc macrohabitats, whereas 9 sites were intermittent and included only Pd macrohabitats. Taxa richness was more variable in Pd, and taxa richness was significantly lower in Pd than in Pc but not R. These results suggested a decline in richness between Pc and Pd that might be associated with loss of connectivity. Lower Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness relative to Odonata, Coleoptera, and Heteroptera (OCH) richness was observed for Pd than R and Pc macrohabitats. Family composition was more similar between R and Pc than between R or Pc and Pd macrohabitats. This similarity may be associated with greater connectivity between R and Pc macrohabitats. Correspondence analysis indicated that macroinvertebrate composition changed along a gradient from R to Pc and Pd that was related to a perennialintermittent gradient across sites. High variability among macroinvertebrate assemblages in Pd could have been related to variability in the duration of intermittency. In cluster analysis, macroinvertebrate assemblages were grouped by macrohabitat first and then by site, suggesting that the macrohabitat filter had a greater influence on macroinvertebrate assemblages than did local site characteristics. Few taxa were found exclusively in Pc, and this macrohabitat shared numerous taxa with R and Pd, indicating that Pc may act as a bridge between R and Pd during drought. Drought is regarded as a ramp disturbance, but our results suggest that the response of macroinvertebrate assemblages to the loss of hydrological connectivity among macrohabitats is gradual, at least in Mediterranean-climate streams where drying is gradual. However, the changes may be more dramatic in arid and semiarid streams or in Mediterranean-climate streams if drying is rapid.

Climate and vegetation history of western Portugal inferred from Albian near-shore deposits (Gale Formation, Lusitanian Basin)

The late Early Cretaceous greenhouse climate has been studied intensively based on proxy data derived essentially from open marine archives. In contrast, information on continental climatic conditions and on the accompanying response of vegetation is relatively scarce, most notably owing to the stratigraphic uncertainties associated with many Lower Cretaceous terrestrial deposits. Here, we present a palynological record from Albian near-shore deposits of the Lusitanian Basin of W Portugal, which have been independently dated using Sr-isotope signals derived from low-Mg oyster shell calcite. Sr-87/Sr-86 values fluctuate between 0.707373 +/- 0.00002 and 0.707456 +/- 0.00003; absolute values and the overall stratigraphic trend match well with the global open marine seawater signature during Albian times. Based on the new Sr-isotope data, existing biostratigraphic assignments of the succession are corroborated and partly revised. Spore-pollen data provide information on the vegetation community structure and are flanked by sedimentological and clay mineralogical data used to infer the overall climatic conditions prevailing on the adjacent continent. Variations in the distribution of climate-sensitive pollen and spores indicate distinct changes in moisture availability across the studied succession with a pronounced increase in hygrophilous spores in late Early Albian times. Comparison with time-equivalent palynofloras from the Algarve Basin of southern Portugal shows pronounced differences in the xerophyte/hygrophyte ratio, interpreted to reflect the effect of a broad arid climate belt covering southern and southeastern Iberia during Early Albian times.

Functional homogenization of bumblebee communities in alpine landscapes under projected climate change

Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

The effect of pesticides and alien invesive species on soil biota and litter decomposition rates in a Mediterrean-climate ecosystem of Western Australia

Ecosystems are complex systems and changing one of their components can alter their whole functioning. Decomposition and biodiversity are two factors that play a role in this stability, and it is vital to study how these two factors are interrelated and how other factors, whether of human origin or not, can affect them. This study has tested different hypotheses regarding the effects of pesticides and invasive species on the biodiversity of the soil fauna and litter decomposition rate. Decomposition was measured using the litterbags technique. Our results indicate that pesticides had a negative effect on decomposition whereas invasive species increased decomposition rate. At the same time, the diversity of the soil biota was unaffected by either factor. These results allow us to better understand the response of important ecosystem functions to human‐induced alterations, in order to mitigate harmful effects or restore them wherever necessary.