Methodology to create cost estimation models for engineer-to-order operations

This research addresses the problem of cost estimation for product development in engineer-to-order (ETO) operations. An ETO operation starts the product development process with a product specification and ends with delivery of a rather complicated, highly customized product. ETO operations are practiced in various industries such as engineering tooling, factory plants, industrial boilers, pressure vessels, shipbuilding, bridges and buildings. ETO views each product as a delivery item in an industrial project and needs to make an accurate estimation of its development cost at the bidding and/or planning stage before any design or manufacturing activity starts. ^ Many ETO practitioners rely on an ad hoc approach to cost estimation, with use of past projects as reference, adapting them to the new requirements. This process is often carried out on a case-by-case basis and in a non-procedural fashion, thus limiting its applicability to other industry domains and transferability to other estimators. In addition to being time consuming, this approach usually does not lead to an accurate cost estimate, which varies from 30% to 50%. ^ This research proposes a generic cost modeling methodology for application in ETO operations across various industry domains. Using the proposed methodology, a cost estimator will be able to develop a cost estimation model for use in a chosen ETO industry in a more expeditious, systematic and accurate manner. ^ The development of the proposed methodology was carried out by following the meta-methodology as outlined by Thomann. Deploying the methodology, cost estimation models were created in two industry domains (building construction and the steel milling equipment manufacturing). The models are then applied to real cases; the cost estimates are significantly more accurate than the actual estimates, with mean absolute error rate of 17.3%. ^ This research fills an important need of quick and accurate cost estimation across various ETO industries. It differs from existing approaches to the problem in that a methodology is developed for use to quickly customize a cost estimation model for a chosen application domain. In addition to more accurate estimation, the major contributions are in its transferability to other users and applicability to different ETO operations. ^

Pre-Disaster Risk Management in Post-Earthquake (1999) Turkey

This paper assesses the status of pre-disaster risk management in the case of Turkey. By focusing on the period following the catastrophic August 17, 1999 earthquake, the study benefits from USAID’s Disaster Risk Management Benchmarking Tool (DRMBT). In line with the benchmarking tool, the paper covers key developments in the four components of pre-disaster risk management, namely: risk identification, risk mitigation, risk transfer and disaster preparedness. In the end, it will present three major conclusions: (i) Although post-1999 Turkey has made some important progress in the pre-disaster phase of DRM, particularly with the enactment of obligatory earthquake insurance and tightened standards for building construction, the country is far away from substantial levels of success in DRM. (ii) In recent years, local governments have had been given more authority in the realm of DRM, however, Turkey’s approach to DRM is still predominantly centralized at the expense of successful DRM practices at the local level. (iii) While the devastating 1999 earthquake has resulted in advances in the pre-disaster components of DRM; progress has been mostly in the realm of earthquakes. Turkey’s other major disasters (landslides, floods, wild fires i.e.) also require similar attention by local and central authorities.

Avaliação da conformidade dos blocos cerâmicos produzidos em algumas cerâmicas no Rio Grande do Norte

The final quality of the works accomplished by the building construction industry depends directly on the quality of the materials supplied and used during all their phases of execution. The federal government participation and several state programs have established conditions to stimulate and require the increment of the quality level in the building construction industry´s product chain. These programs aim at the product conformity to the technical standards. Within this context, the evaluation program of the ceramic product conformity in Rio Grande do Norte state is assessing the conformity degree to Brazilian Technical Standards of ceramic bricks and tiles made in the ceramic production area in the state. In this work, is determine the degree of conformity of the sealing ceramic bricks made by some companies in different areas of the state, such as Assú, São Gonçalo do Amarante, Apodi, Parelhas, São José do Mipibu e Macaíba. Using the technical standards as a point of reference, we attempted to reproduce in the laboratory the experimental procedures to the analysis execution, according to the specifications. It was possible to determine that none of the evaluated samples are in strict conformity with the current technical standards, what reflects the real situation of the products available on the market.

Análise do processo de avaliação de desempenho ambiental face às diretrizes da ISO 14031: um estudo de caso

The present dissertation aims to analyze the evaluation process of environmental performance inside an organization from the building construction section of civil construction based on the NBR ISO 14031 guidelines, which provide orientation regarding the implementation of this project towards the internal organizational management. The theoretical research has addressed concepts and historical development of environmental management inside organizations, from the emergence of the first models to the strengthening of environmental management through the standardization of the Environmental Management System caused by the publication of ISO 14001. It has also addressed the evaluation of environmental performance, the NBR ISO 14031 (concepts, types of indicators of evaluation of environmental performance, the elaboration process of such indicators, as well as its use and evaluation by the high administration). The research has an applied character, with exploratory and descriptive goals, and a qualitative approach based on case study. The data collection will be made through questionnaires, interviews, and documental analysis. Through the present research project, one expects to learn the elements taken into consideration by the organization for the elaboration and selection of indicators; to identify which interested parties contribute in the aforementioned process; to discover which sources are taken into consideration by the organization while establishing its environmental performance goals; to learn how the different kinds of environmental indicators are handled by organizations on daily basis, considering the existence of interferences on the decision making process, whether or not the interested parties are integrated, and if there is an periodical evaluation of environmental performance and how it is handled. One also expects to identify the opportunities for improvement regarding the organization that is object of study.

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Evaluation of ventilation performance in public spaces.

Smoking restrictions in the workplace and increased health consciousness at home have seen a sizable reduction in the number of spaces where smoking is permissible. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of ventilation in public houses, one of the few remaining public spaces where smoking is still socially acceptable. Little is known about the situation with shared occupancies, where relatively large areas are intended to accommodate both smokers and non-smokers. This study clearly identifies potential problems with a simplistic design approach to ventilation and its effectiveness in the context of shared occupancy spaces. A computational fluid dynamics code has been used to model airflows with the aim of identifying inefficiencies in existing ventilation systems.

Monitoring pollutants in occupied spaces.

There is increasing evidence of a causal link between airborne particles and ill health and this study monitored the exposure to both airborne particles and the gas phase contaminants of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in a nightclub. The present study followed a number of pilot studies in which the human exposure to airborne particles in a nightclub was assessed and the spatio-temporal distribution of gas phase pollutants was evaluated in restaurants and pubs. The work reported here re-examined the nightclub environment and utilized concurrent and continuous monitoring using optical scattering samplers to measure particulates (PM10) together with multi-gas analysers. The analysis illustrated the highly episodic nature of both gaseous and particulate concentrations in both the dance floor and in the bar area but levels were well below the maximum recommended exposure levels. Short-term exposure to high concentrations may however be relevant when considering the possible toxic effects on biological systems. The results give an indication of the problems associated with achieving acceptable indoor air quality (IAQ) in a complex space and identified some of the problems inherent in the design and operation of ventilation systems for such spaces.

Human exposure to particulate and gaseous pollutants in a bar.

There is increasing evidence of a causal link between airborne particles and ill health and this study examined the exposure to both airborne particles and the gas phase contaminants of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in a bar. The work reported here utilized concurrent and continuous monitoring using real-time optical scattering personal samplers to record particulate (PM10) concentrations at two internal locations. Very high episodes were observed in seating areas compared with the bar area. A photo-acoustic multi-gas analyser was used to record the gas phases (CO and CO2) at eight different locations throughout the bar and showed little spatial variation. This gave a clear indication of the problems associated with achieving acceptable Indoor Air Quality in a public space and identified a fundamental problem with the simplistic design approach taken to ventilate the space. Both gaseous and particulate concentrations within the bar were below maximum recommended levels although the time-series analysis illustrated the highly episodic nature of this exposure.

An Integrated approach to street canyon pollution modelling.

An integrated method for the prediction of the spatial pollution distribution within a street canyon directly from a microscopic traffic simulation model is outlined. The traffic simulation package Paramics is used to model the flow of vehicles in realistic traffic conditions on a real road network. This produces details of the amount of pollutant produced by each vehicle at any given time. The authors calculate the dispersion of the pollutant using a particle tracking diffusion method which is superimposed on a known velocity and turbulence field. This paper shows how these individual components may be integrated to provide a practical street canyon pollution model. The resulting street canyon pollution model provides isoconcentrations of pollutant within the road topography.