Modelling the surface circulation and thermal structure of a tropical reservoir using three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model and remote-sensing data

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Revealing archaeal diversity patterns and methane fluxes in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, and their association to Brazilian Antarctic Station activities

The study of Antarctic archaeal communities adds information on the biogeography of this group and helps understanding the dynamics of biogenic methane production in such extreme habitats. Molecular methods were combined to methane flux determinations in Martel Inlet, Admiralty Bay, to assess archaeal diversity, to obtain information about contribution of the area to atmospheric methane budget and to detect possible interferences of the Antarctic Brazilian Station Comandante Ferraz (EACF) wastewater discharge on local archaeal communities and methane emissions. Methane fluxes in Martel Inlet ranged from 3.2 to 117.9 mu mol CH(4) m(-2) d(-1), with an average of 51.3 +/- 8.5 mu mol CH(4) m(-2) d(-1) and a median of 57.6 mu mol CH(4) m(-2)d(-1). However, three negative fluxes averaging -11.3 mu mol CH(4) m(-2) d(-1) were detected in MacKellar Inlet, indicating that Admiralty Bay can be either a source or sink of atmospheric methane. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) showed that archaeal communities at EACF varied with depth and formed a group separated from the reference sites. Granulometric analysis indicated that differences observed may be mostly related to sediment type. However, an influence of wastewater input could not be discarded, since higher methane fluxes were found at CF site. suggesting stimulation of local methanogenesis. DGGE profile of the wastewater sample grouped separated from all other samples, suggesting that methanogenesis stimulation may be due to changes in environmental conditions rather than to the input of allochtonous species from the wastewater. 16S ribosomal DNA clone libraries analysis showed that all wastewater sequences were related to known methanogenic groups belonging to the hydrogenotrophic genera Methanobacterium and Methanobrevibacter and the aceticlastic genus Methanosaeta. EACF and Botany Point sediment clone libraries retrieved only groups of uncultivated Archaea, with predominance of Crenarchaeota representatives (MCG, MG1, MBG-B, MBG-C and MHVG groups). Euryarchaeota sequences found were mostly related to the LDS and RC-V groups, but MBG-D and DHVE-5 were also present. No representatives of cultivated methanogenic groups were found, but coverage estimates suggest that a higher number of clones would have to be analyzed in order to cover the greater archaeal diversity of Martel Inlet sediment. Nevertheless, the analysis of the libraries revealed groups not commonly found by other authors in Antarctic habitats and also indicated the presence of groups of uncultivated archaea previously associated to methane rich environments or to the methane cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of deep convective cloud systems on tropospheric trace gases and photochemistry over the tropical West Pacific

A numerical model for studying the influences of deep convective cloud systems on photochemistry was developed based on a non-hydrostatic meteorological model and chemistry from a global chemistry transport model. The transport of trace gases, the scavenging of soluble trace gases, and the influences of lightning produced nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) on the local ozone-related photochemistry were investigated in a multi-day case study for an oceanic region located in the tropical western Pacific. Model runs considering influences of large scale flows, previously neglected in multi-day cloud resolving and single column model studies of tracer transport, yielded that the influence of the mesoscale subsidence (between clouds) on trace gas transport was considerably overestimated in these studies. The simulated vertical transport and scavenging of highly soluble tracers were found to depend on the initial profiles, reconciling contrasting results from two previous studies. Influences of the modeled uptake of trace gases by hydrometeors in the liquid and the ice phase were studied in some detail for a small number of atmospheric trace gases and novel aspects concerning the role of the retention coefficient (i.e. the fraction of a dissolved trace gas that is retained in the ice phase upon freezing) on the vertical transport of highly soluble gases were illuminated. Including lightning NOx production inside a 500 km 2-D model domain was found to be important for the NOx budget and caused small to moderate changes in the domain averaged ozone concentrations. A number of sensitivity studies yielded that the fraction of lightning associated NOx which was lost through photochemical reactions in the vicinity of the lightning source was considerable, but strongly depended on assumptions about the magnitude and the altitude of the lightning NOx source. In contrast to a suggestion from an earlier study, it was argued that the near zero upper tropospheric ozone mixing ratios which were observed close to the study region were most probably not caused by the formation of NO associated with lightning. Instead, it was argued in agreement with suggestions from other studies that the deep convective transport of ozone-poor air masses from the relatively unpolluted marine boundary layer, which have most likely been advected horizontally over relatively large distances (both before and after encountering deep convection) probably played a role. In particular, it was suggested that the ozone profiles observed during CEPEX (Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment) were strongly influenced by the deep convection and the larger scale flow which are associated with the intra-seasonal oscillation.

Soil biogenic emissions of nitric oxide from arid and semi-arid ecosystems

The biogenic production of NO in the soil accounts for between 10% and 40% of the global total. A large degree of the uncertainty in the estimation of the biogenic emissions stems from a shortage of measurements in arid regions, which comprise 40% of the earth’s land surface area. This study examined the emission of NO from three ecosystems in southern Africa which cover an aridity gradient from semi-arid savannas in South Africa to the hyper-arid Namib Desert in Namibia. A laboratory method was used to determine the release of NO as a function of the soil moisture and the soil temperature. Various methods were used to up-scale the net potential NO emissions determined in the laboratory to the vegetation patch, landscape or regional level. The importance of landscape, vegetation and climatic characteristics is emphasized. The first study occurred in a semi-arid savanna region in South Africa, where soils were sampled from 4 landscape positions in the Kruger National Park. The maximum NO emission occurred at soil moisture contents of 10%-20% water filled pore space (WFPS). The highest net potential NO emissions came from the low lying landscape positions, which have the largest nitrogen (N) stocks and the largest input of N. Net potential NO fluxes obtained in the laboratory were converted in field fluxes for the period 2003-2005, for the four landscape positions, using soil moisture and temperature data obtained in situ at the Kruger National Park Flux Tower Site. The NO emissions ranged from 1.5-8.5 kg ha-1 a-1. The field fluxes were up-scaled to a regional basis using geographic information system (GIS) based techniques, this indicated that the highest NO emissions occurred from the Midslope positions due to their large geographical extent in the research area. Total emissions ranged from 20x103 kg in 2004 to 34x103 kg in 2003 for the 56000 ha Skukuza land type. The second study occurred in an arid savanna ecosystem in the Kalahari, Botswana. In this study I collected soils from four differing vegetation patch types including: Pan, Annual Grassland, Perennial Grassland and Bush Encroached patches. The maximum net potential NO fluxes ranged from 0.27 ng m-2 s-1 in the Pan patches to 2.95 ng m-2 s-1 in the Perennial Grassland patches. The net potential NO emissions were up-scaled for the year December 2005-November 2006. This was done using 1) the net potential NO emissions determined in the laboratory, 2) the vegetation patch distribution obtained from LANDSAT NDVI measurements 3) estimated soil moisture contents obtained from ENVISAT ASAR measurements and 4) soil surface temperature measurements using MODIS 8 day land surface temperature measurements. This up-scaling procedure gave NO fluxes which ranged from 1.8 g ha-1 month-1 in the winter months (June and July) to 323 g ha-1 month-1 in the summer months (January-March). Differences occurred between the vegetation patches where the highest NO fluxes occurred in the Perennial Grassland patches and the lowest in the Pan patches. Over the course of the year the mean up-scaled NO emission for the studied region was 0.54 kg ha-1 a-1 and accounts for a loss of approximately 7.4% of the estimated N input to the region. The third study occurred in the hyper-arid Namib Desert in Namibia. Soils were sampled from three ecosystems; Dunes, Gravel Plains and the Riparian zone of the Kuiseb River. The net potential NO flux measured in the laboratory was used to estimate the NO flux for the Namib Desert for 2006 using modelled soil moisture and temperature data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational model on a 36km x 35km spatial resolution. The maximum net potential NO production occurred at low soil moisture contents (<10%WFPS) and the optimal temperature was 25°C in the Dune and Riparian ecosystems and 35°C in the Gravel Plain Ecosystems. The maximum net potential NO fluxes ranged from 3.0 ng m-2 s-1 in the Riparian ecosystem to 6.2 ng m-2 s-1 in the Gravel Plains ecosystem. Up-scaling the net potential NO flux gave NO fluxes of up to 0.062 kg ha-1 a-1 in the Dune ecosystem and 0.544 kg h-1 a-1 in the Gravel Plain ecosystem. From these studies it is shown that NO is emitted ubiquitously from terrestrial ecosystems, as such the NO emission potential from deserts and scrublands should be taken into account in the global NO models. The emission of NO is influenced by various factors such as landscape, vegetation and climate. This study looks at the potential emissions from certain arid and semi-arid environments in southern Africa and other parts of the world and discusses some of the important factors controlling the emission of NO from the soil.

Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn

Systematics, phylogeny and biogeography of Juncaginaceae

I investigated the systematics, phylogeny and biogeographical history of Juncaginaceae, a small family of the early-diverging monocot order Alismatales which comprises about 30 species of annual and perennial herbs. A wide range of methods from classical taxonomy to molecular systematic and biogeographic approaches was used. rnrnIn Chapter 1, a phylogenetic analysis of the family and members of Alismatales was conducted to clarify the circumscription of Juncaginaceae and intrafamilial relationships. For the first time, all accepted genera and those associated with the family in the past were analysed together. Phylogenetic analysis of three molecular markers (rbcL, matK, and atpA) showed that Juncaginaceae are not monophyletic. As a consequence the family is re-circumscribed to exclude Maundia which is pro-posed to belong to a separate family Maundiaceae, reducing Juncaginaceae to include Tetroncium, Cycnogeton and Triglochin. Tetroncium is weakly supported as sister to the rest of the family. The reinstated Cycnogeton (formerly included in Triglochin) is highly supported as sister to Triglochin s.str. Lilaea is nested within Triglochin s. str. and highly supported as sister to the T. bulbosa complex. The results of the molecular analysis are discussed in combination with morphological characters, a key to the genera of the family is given, and several new combinations are made.rnrnIn Chapter 2, phylogenetic relationships in Triglochin were investigated. A species-level phylogeny was constructed based on molecular data obtained from nuclear (ITS, internal transcribed spacer) and chloroplast sequence data (psbA-trnH, matK). Based on the phylogeny of the group, divergence times were estimated and ancestral distribution areas reconstructed. The monophyly of Triglochin is confirmed and relationships between the major lineages of the genus were resolved. A clade comprising the Mediterranean/African T. bulbosa complex and the American T. scilloides (= Lilaea s.) is sister to the rest of the genus which contains two main clades. In the first, the widespread T. striata is sister to a clade comprising annual Triglochin species from Australia. The second clade comprises T. palustris as sister to the T. maritima complex, of which the latter is further divided into a Eurasian and an American subclade. Diversification in Triglochin began in the Miocene or Oligocene, and most disjunctions in Triglochin were dated to the Miocene. Taxonomic diversity in some clades is strongly linked to habitat shifts and can not be observed in old but ecologically invariable lineages such as the non-monophyletic T. maritima.rnrnChapter 3 is a collaborative revision of the Triglochin bulbosa complex, a monophyletic group from the Mediterranean region and Africa. One new species, Triglochin buchenaui, and two new subspecies, T. bulbosa subsp. calcicola and subsp. quarcicola, from South Africa were described. Furthermore, two taxa were elevated to species rank and two reinstated. Altogether, seven species and four subspecies are recognised. An identification key, detailed descriptions and accounts of the ecology and distribution of the taxa are provided. An IUCN conservation status is proposed for each taxon.rnrnChapter 4 deals with the monotypic Tetroncium from southern South America. Tetroncium magellanicum is the only dioecious species in the family. The taxonomic history of the species is described, type material is traced, and a lectotype for the name is designated. Based on an extensive study of herbarium specimens and literature, a detailed description of the species and notes on its ecology and conservation status are provided. A detailed map showing the known distribution area of T. magellanicum is presented. rnrnIn Chapter 5, the flower structure of the rare Australian endemic Maundia triglochinoides (Maundiaceae, see Chapter 1) was studied in a collaborative project. As the morphology of Maundia is poorly known and some characters were described differently in the literature, inflorescences, flowers and fruits were studied using serial mictrotome sections and scanning electron microscopy. The phylogenetic placement, affinities to other taxa, and the evolution of certain characters are discussed. As Maundia exhibits a mosaic of characters of other families of tepaloid core Alismatales, its segregation as a separate family seems plausible.

Use of Land Surface Temperature to Estimate Surface Energy Fluxes: Contributions of Wilfried Brutsaert and Collaborators

Land surface temperature (LST) plays a key role in governing the land surface energy budget, and measurements or estimates of LST are an integral part of many land surface models and methods to estimate land surface sensible heat (H) and latent heat fluxes. In particular, the LST anchors the potential temperature profile in Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, from which H can be derived. Brutsaert has made important contributions to our understanding the nature of surface temperature measurements as well as the practical but theoretically sound use of LST in this framework. His work has coincided with the wide-spread availability of remotely sensed LST measurements. Use of remotely sensed LST estimates inevitably involves complicating factors, such as: varying spatial and temporal scales in measurements, theory, and models; spatial variability of LST and H; the relationship between measurements of LST and the temperature felt by the atmosphere; and the need to correct satellite-based radiometric LST measurements for the radiative effects of the atmosphere. This paper reviews the progress made in research in these areas by tracing and commenting on Brutsaert's contributions.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

“Beneath the Starry Flag”: the Flags and Songs of the 1913-14 Michigan Copper Strike as Image-making in the American Labor Movement

The 1913-14 Michigan copper strike is unlike many American labor actions of the period in that it did not include red flags or socialist anthems. Many of the most familiar photographs of the strike involve American flags, not red ones. Similarly, the songs mentioned in journalistic accounts of the strikers are American Civil War songs, not popular labor songs of the period. The few newly-written songs about the strike, published in the local newspapers, seem cautiously polite and espouse values such as patriotism, liberty and human rights. During a time when sections of the "friendly" press were concerned with labor presenting the correct image and avoiding unfavorable associations, the Copper Country strikers, and the W.F.M., seem to have been attempting to create a fresh narrative regarding what this strike was (and what it was not). This paper will consider elements of the Copper Country strike in the light of media coverage, prior to July 1913, of several American labor topics that might have influenced the way the strike was presented. Particular attention will be given to photographs, songs, and accounts from the 1912 Lawrence textile strike, as well as contemporaneous critiques of labor song lyrics. Most of this commentary will be drawn from the labor and socialist press, demonstrating that the 1913-14 Michigan copper strike occurred during a period in which the labor movement was struggling to craft and image that would display it as it wished to be seen. This paper has not yet been submitted.

Immunopathology of postprimary tuberculosis: increased T-regulatory cells and DEC-205-positive foamy macrophages in cavitary lesions.

Postprimary tuberculosis occurs in immunocompetent people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. It is restricted to the lung and accounts for 80% of cases and nearly 100% of transmission. Little is known about the immunopathology of postprimary tuberculosis due to limited availability of specimens. Tissues from 30 autopsy cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were located. Sections of characteristic lesions of caseating granulomas, lipid pneumonia, and cavitary stages of postprimary disease were selected for immunohistochemical studies of macrophages, lymphocytes, endothelial cells, and mycobacterial antigens. A higher percentage of cells in lipid pneumonia (36.1%) and cavitary lesions (27.8%) were positive for the dendritic cell marker DEC-205, compared to granulomas (9.0%, P < .05). Cavities contained significantly more T-regulatory cells (14.8%) than found in lipid pneumonia (5.2%) or granulomas (4.8%). Distribution of the immune cell types may contribute to the inability of the immune system to eradicate tuberculosis.

Geographic variation in floral allometry suggests repeated transitions between selfing and outcrossing in a mixed mating plant

• Premise of the study: Isometric and allometric scaling of a conserved floral plan could provide a parsimonious mechanism for rapid and reversible transitions between breeding systems. This scaling may occur during transitions between predominant autogamy and xenogamy, contributing to the maintenance of a stable mixed mating system. • Methods: We compared nine disjunct populations of the polytypic, mixed mating species Oenothera flava (Onagraceae) to two parapatric relatives, the obligately xenogamous species O. acutissima and the mixed mating species O. triloba. We compared floral morphology of all taxa using principal component analysis (PCA) and developmental trajectories of floral organs using ANCOVA homogeneity of slopes. • Key results: The PCA revealed both isometric and allometric scaling of a conserved floral plan. Three principal components (PCs) explained 92.5% of the variation in the three species. PC1 predominantly loaded on measures of floral size and accounts for 36% of the variation. PC2 accounted for 35% of the variation, predominantly in traits that influence pollinator handling. PC3 accounted for 22% of the variation, primarily in anther–stigma distance (herkogamy). During O. flava subsp. taraxacoides development, style elongation was accelerated relative to anthers, resulting in positive herkogamy. During O. flava subsp. flava development, style elongation was decelerated, resulting in zero or negative herkogamy. Of the two populations with intermediate morphology, style elongation was accelerated in one population and decelerated in the other. • Conclusions: Isometric and allometric scaling of floral organs in North American Oenothera section Lavauxia drive variation in breeding system. Multiple developmental paths to intermediate phenotypes support the likelihood of multiple mating system transitions.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Colorectal cancer screening: Racial/ethnic and gender disparities in a population-based cross-sectional analysis of the United States

Gender and racial/ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer screening (CRC) has been observed and associated with income status, education level, treatment and late diagnosis. According to the American Cancer Society, among both males and females, CRC is the third most frequently diagnosed type of cancer and accounts for 10% of cancer deaths in the United States. Differences in CRC test use have been documented and limited to access to health care, demographics and health behaviors, but few studies have examined the correlates of CRC screening test use by gender. This present study examined the prevalence of CRC screening test use and assessed whether disparities are explained by gender and racial/ethnic differences. To assess these associations, the study utilized a cross-sectional design and examined the distribution of the covariates for gender and racial/ethnic group differences using the chi square statistic. Logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence odds ratio and to adjust for the confounding effects of the covariates. ^ Results indicated there are disparities in the use of CRC screening test use and there were statistically significant difference in the prevalence for both FOBT and endoscopy screening between gender, χ2, p≤0.003. Females had a lower prevalence of endoscopy colorectal cancer screening than males when adjusting for age and education (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82–0.95). However, no statistically significant difference was reported between racial/ethnic groups, χ 2 p≤0.179 after adjusting for age, education and gender. For both FOBT and endoscopy screening Non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics had a lower prevalence of screening compared with Non-Hispanic Whites. In the multivariable regression model, the gender disparities could largely be explained by age, income status, education level, and marital status. Overall, individuals between the age "70–79" years old, were married, with some college education and income greater than $20,000 were associated with a higher prevalence of colorectal cancer screening test use within gender and racial/ethnic groups. ^