Deflation and monetary policy: A look into Japan and the Euro Area

With more than two decades of weak economic performance since the bubble burst in the ‘90s, the Japanese deflationary scenario has become the economic fate every developed economy fears to become. As the euro area continues to experience sustained low inflation, studying the Japanese monetary policy may shed light on how to prevent persistent deflation. Using an SVAR methodology to understand the monetary transmission mechanism, we find some evidence that the euro area may possess characteristics that would eventually lead to a deflationary scenario. The extent of whether it would suffer the same Japanese fate would depend on how macroeconomic policies are timely coordinated as a response to its liquidity problem and increasing public debt across member states.

Abriebsverhalten von Feststoffpartikeln in Wirbelschichten

Fluidized bed, attrition behaivior, solid particles, particle surface, bed mass, attrition coefficient, modeling, bubble fluidized bed

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis assume that policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow policy to be described by various forms of optimal policy - commitment, discretion and quasi-commitment. We find that, even after allowing for Markov switching in shock variances, the inflation target and/or rule parameters, the data preferred description of policy is that the US Fed operates under discretion with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s. Parameter estimates are similar to those obtained under simple rules, except that the degree of habits is significantly lower and the prevalence of cost-push shocks greater. Moreover, we find that the greatest welfare gains from the ‘Great Moderation’ arose from the reduction in the variances in shocks hitting the economy, rather than increased inflation aversion. However, much of the high inflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had policy makers been able to commit, even without adopting stronger anti-inflation objectives. More recently the Fed appears to have temporarily relaxed policy following the 1987 stock market crash, and has lost, without regaining, its post-Volcker conservatism following the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

Intestinal content detection in capsule endoscopy using robust features

This work covers two aspects. First, it generally compares and summarizes the similarities and differences of state of the art feature detector and descriptor and second it presents a novel approach of detecting intestinal content (in particular bubbles) in capsule endoscopy images. Feature detectors and descriptors providing invariance to change of perspective, scale, signal-noise-ratio and lighting conditions are important and interesting topics in current research and the number of possible applications seems to be numberless. After analysing a selection of in the literature presented approaches, this work investigates in their suitability for applications information extraction in capsule endoscopy images. Eventually, a very good performing detector of intestinal content in capsule endoscopy images is presented. A accurate detection of intestinal content is crucial for all kinds of machine learning approaches and other analysis on capsule endoscopy studies because they occlude the field of view of the capsule camera and therefore those frames need to be excluded from analysis. As a so called “byproduct” of this investigation a graphical user interface supported Feature Analysis Tool is presented to execute and compare the discussed feature detectors and descriptor on arbitrary images, with configurable parameters and visualized their output. As well the presented bubble classifier is part of this tool and if a ground truth is available (or can also be generated using this tool) a detailed visualization of the validation result will be performed.

Behavior of Biomphalaria glabrata Say, 1818 (Gastropoda: Planorbidae): I. Morphophysiology of the Mantle Cavity

Using longitudinal and transverse anatomical sections, we observed that the three cristae of the mantle of Biomphalaria glabrata (renal, rectal and dorsolateral cristae) divide the mantle cavity into three chambers which we designated air or pulmonary chamber, water inflow chamber and water outflow chamber. Using videotape filming, we observed the inflow and outflow of air and water into and from the mantle cavity and we related their probable functions such as flotation, oxygen reservoir and transport, excreta circulation and elimination, water skeleton, and modification of specific weight. To determine whether the air bubble may function as a physical gill in this species we submitted three groups of snails to different systems in which water contained the same level of dissolved oxygen whereas the gas phases were atmospheric air, pure nitrogen or pure oxygen. We observed the following parameters: time of permanence on the surface, time of immersion, and frequency at which the snails reached the surface. These results did not demonstrate a physical gill function; morphological analysis of the mantle cavity indicates this possibility

Expansion of intraocular gas bubbles due to altitude: do meteorological factors play a role?

BACKGROUND: Intraocular gas bubbles expand as patients move up to higher altitude. This may cause an acute intraocular pressure (IOP) rise with associated vascular obstructions and visual loss. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two pseudophakic patients underwent a pars plana vitrectomy and 23% SF6 gas tamponade for a pseudophakic retinal detachment. During the immediate post-operative phase, the patients travelled daily up to their domicile, which was situated approximately 600 m higher than the level where they had been operated on. These travels were always without any pain or visual loss. However 1 week after surgery both patients developed severe ocular pain, and one patient had complete temporary loss of vision after ascending to altitude levels, which had previously presented no problem. Both episodes occurred in parallel with a change in barometric pressure. RESULTS: Treatment with acetazolamide reduced the increased IOP to normal levels, and visual acuity recovered. CONCLUSIONS: Although the post-operative size of an intraocular gas bubble decreases progressively over time, problems with bubble expansion may still occur even at a late stage if meteorological factors, that may increase the bubble size, change.

A viscous bioerodible poly(ortho ester) as a new biomaterial for intraocular application.

The biocompatibility of a viscous, hydrophobic, bioerodible poly(ortho ester) (POE) intended for intraocular application was investigated. POE was evaluated as a blank carrier and as containing modulators of degradation. Each formulation was injected intracamerally and intravitreally in rabbit eyes, and clinical and histological examinations were performed postoperatively for 2 weeks. In the case of intracameral injections, polymer biocompatibility appeared to depend on the amount injected in the anterior chamber. When 50 microL was administered, the polymer degraded within 2 weeks, and clinical observations showed good biocompatibility of POE with no toxicity to the ocular tissues or increase in intraocular pressure. The injection of a larger volume, 100 microL, of POE, appeared inappropriate because of direct contact of polymeric material with the corneal endothelium, and triggered reversible edema and inflammation in the anterior chamber of the eye that regressed after a few days. After intravitreal administration, POE was well tolerated and no inflammatory reaction developed during the observation period. The polymer degraded slowly, appearing as a round whitish bubble in the vitreous cavity. The presence of modulators of degradation both improved POE biocompatibility and prolonged polymer lifetime in the eye. POE appears to be a promising biomaterial for clinical intraocular application.

Ocular biocompatibility of a poly(ortho ester) characterized by autocatalyzed degradation.

The biocompatibility of autocatalyzed poly(ortho ester) (POE(70)LA(30)), a viscous, hydrophobic, bioerodible polymer, was investigated. POE(70)LA(30) was synthesized, sterilized by gamma irradiation, and injected in rabbit eyes at adequate volumes through subconjunctival, intracameral, intravitreal, and suprachoroidal routes. Clinical examinations were performed postoperatively at regular time points for 6 mo, and histopathologic analysis was carried out to confirm tissular biocompatibility. After subconjunctival injection, the polymer was well tolerated and persisted in the subconjunctival space for about 5 weeks. In the case of intracameral injections, polymer biocompatibility was good; the POE(70)LA(30) bubble was still present in the anterior chamber for up to 6 mo after injection. No major histopathologic anomalies were detected, with the exception of a localized Descemet membrane thickening. After intravitreal administration, POE(70)LA(30) biocompatibility was excellent, and no inflammatory reaction could be detected during the observation period. The polymer was degraded in approximately 3 mo. Suprachoroidal injections of POE(70)LA(30) were reproducible and well tolerated. POE(70)LA(30) triggered a slight elevation of the retina and choroid upon clinical observation. The polymer was detectable in the suprachoroidal space for about 6 mo. No inflammatory reaction and no major retinal anomalies could be detected by histology. In conclusion, POE(70)LA(30) appears to be a promising biomaterial for intraocular application, potentially providing sustained drug delivery over an extended period of time, with a good tolerance.

La crisi Japonesa dels anys 90 : Formació, causes, evolució i recuperació econòmica

Treball que analitza la crisi japonesa dels anys noranta. Es descriu la formació de l'economia bombolla i el seu esclat, les causes de la crisi, el sistema econòmic i polític japonès i la recuperació econòmica començada l'any 2003.

Els canvis en la banca japonesa després de la crisi de 1990

Aquesta recerca vol endinsar-se en les particularitats del sector bancari japonès. Per particularitats entenem aquelles característiques que defineixen una societat, i que la caracteritza com a singular i única, diferent a les altres. Per tal d'enfocar-ne la recerca, prendrem com a punt de partida i referència, la situació de l'economia japonesa dels anys noranta, després de l'esclat de la bombolla financera l'any 1990. Tanmateix, prèviament farem un breu incís amb l'objectiu de contextualitzar la situació financera abans de l'esclat de la bombolla, per entendre així quines foren les primeres conseqüències que provocà la crisi financera de 1990. Les respostes i el posicionament que emprendrà el Govern també ens ajudaran a comprendre les característiques del sistema bancari japonès. A través de l'estudi d'aquest sistema financer centrat en els bancs, identificarem conceptes com: la banca de relació, la qual ens marcarà una de les característiques principals d'aquest sistema. A través de la descripció de figures com: bancs principals i keiretsu , també aconseguirem identificar nous trets. A través de la observació crítica de la relació entre entitats bancàries i Govern, aconseguirem anar detallant les pràctiques bancàries que han seguit, amb l'objectiu de per poder descriure les polítiques de risc aplicades per les entitats bancàries. Un cop caracteritzats els trets principals del sistema bancari japonès, arribarà l'hora de mostrar els canvis que s'han produït en el sistema bancari japonès. L'estudi de la reestructuració del sistema, ens mostrarà el nou mapa bancari japonès així com la nova regulació a la qual és sotmès. Finalment serem capaços d'identificar aquells trets que han generat els principals problemes del sector bancari.

Establishment of a reliable laser-Induced Choroidal Neovascularization Animal Model

Purpose: Pathologic choroidal neovascularizations (CNV) are implicated in the wet form of age-related macular degeneration (ARMD). Abnormal vessel growth is also observed in disease when hypoxia and/or inflammation occur. Our goal is to establish a standard protocol of laser-induced CNV in mice that have different levels of pigmentation to identify the most reliable animal model.Methods: CNV was induced by 4 burns around the optic disk, using a green argon laser (100μm diameter spot size; 0,05 sec. duration) in C57/Bl6, DBA/1 and Balb/c to ascertain the efficacy of the method in function of retina pigmentation. Five different intensities were tested and Bruch's membrane disruption was identified by the appearance of a bubble at the site of photocoagulation. Fluorescein angiographies (FA) were undertaken 14 days post lesion and CNV area was quantified by immunohistochemistry on cryosections.Results: CNV retina area was related to spot intensity after laser injury. While 180mW and 200mW do not induce reliable CNV (respectively 27.85±0.35% and 29±1.67% of the retina surface), 260mW is required to induce 51,07±8.52% of CNV in C57/Bl6 mice. For the DBA/1 strain, less pigmented, 200mW was sufficient to induce 49.35±3.9% of CNV, indicating that lower intensity are required to induce CNV. Furthermore, an intensity of 180mW induced greater CNV (35.55±6.01%) than in C57/Bl6 mice. Nevertheless, laser did not induce reproducible 50% CNV in Balb/c albino mice for all intensities tested. Isolectin-B4 and GFAP stainings revealed neovessel formation and photoreceptor (PR) degeneration at the impact site. The presence of glia was observed throughout all the retinal layers and angiograms showed fluorescein leakage in pigmented mice.Conclusions: The establishment of a standard protocol to induce CNV and subsequent PR degeneration is of prime importance for the use of the laser-induced CNV model and will allow to evaluate the therapeutic potency of agents to prevent CNV and retinal degeneration.

Economic growth with bubbles

We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles. In this model, changes in investorsentiment lead to the appearance and collapse of macroeconomic bubbles or pyramid schemes.We show how these bubbles mitigate the effects of financial frictions. During bubbly episodes,unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive investors supply them. These transfersof resources improve the efficiency at which the economy operates, expanding consumption, thecapital stock and output. When bubbly episodes end, these transfers stop and consumption, thecapital stock and output contract. We characterize the stochastic equilibria of the model and arguethat they provide a natural way of introducing bubble shocks into business cycle models.

Valuation bubbles and sequential bubbles

Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu valuation equilibrium in infinite-timeeconomy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuationof assets. In contrast, known examples of price bubbles in sequentialequilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countableadditivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation ofassets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature ofprice bubbles in light of this theory. We consider an operator, calledpayoff pricing functional, that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimumcost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that thepayoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set ofpositive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, and providedthat there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the knownexamples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation islinear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble indicatesthat the asset's dividends can be purchased in sequential markers at acost lower than the asset's price. We also present examples of equilibriumprice bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear but not countably additive.

Topological locking restrains replication fork reversal.

Two-dimensional agarose gel electrophoresis, psoralen cross-linking, and electron microscopy were used to study the effects of positive supercoiling on fork reversal in isolated replication intermediates of bacterial DNA plasmids. The results obtained demonstrate that the formation of Holliday-like junctions at both forks of a replication bubble creates a topological constraint that prevents further regression of the forks. We propose that this topological locking of replication intermediates provides a biological safety mechanism that protects DNA molecules against extensive fork reversals.