Cloud optical depth retrievals from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) cloud mode observations

Cloud optical depth is one of the most poorly observed climate variables. The new “cloud mode” capability in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) will inexpensively yet dramatically increase cloud optical depth observations in both number and accuracy. Cloud mode optical depth retrievals from AERONET were evaluated at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program’s Oklahoma site in sky conditions ranging from broken clouds to overcast. For overcast cases, the 1.5 min average AERONET cloud mode optical depths agreed to within 15% of those from a standard ground‐based flux method. For broken cloud cases, AERONET retrievals also captured rapid variations detected by the microwave radiometer. For 3 year climatology derived from all nonprecipitating clouds, AERONET monthly mean cloud optical depths are generally larger than cloud radar retrievals because of the current cloud mode observation strategy that is biased toward measurements of optically thick clouds. This study has demonstrated a new way to enhance the existing AERONET infrastructure to observe cloud optical properties on a global scale.

On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models

We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.

Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Massive Science with VO and Grids

There is a growing need for massive computational resources for the analysis of new astronomical datasets. To tackle this problem, we present here our first steps towards marrying two new and emerging technologies; the Virtual Observatory (e.g, AstroGrid) and the computa- tional grid (e.g. TeraGrid, COSMOS etc.). We discuss the construction of VOTechBroker, which is a modular software tool designed to abstract the tasks of submission and management of a large number of compu- tational jobs to a distributed computer system. The broker will also interact with the AstroGrid workflow and MySpace environments. We discuss our planned usages of the VOTechBroker in computing a huge number of n–point correlation functions from the SDSS data and mas- sive model-fitting of millions of CMBfast models to WMAP data. We also discuss other applications including the determination of the XMM Cluster Survey selection function and the construction of new WMAP maps.

Statistical computations with AstroGrid and the Grid

We outline our first steps towards marrying two new and emerging technologies; the Virtual Observatory (e.g, Astro- Grid) and the computational grid. We discuss the construction of VOTechBroker, which is a modular software tool designed to abstract the tasks of submission and management of a large number of computational jobs to a distributed computer system. The broker will also interact with the AstroGrid workflow and MySpace environments. We present our planned usage of the VOTechBroker in computing a huge number of n–point correlation functions from the SDSS, as well as fitting over a million CMBfast models to the WMAP data.

I killed my father, I ate human flesh, I quiver with joy: an obsession with Pier Paolo Pasolini

Group show, curated by Invisible Exports Gallery. Featuring work by Michael Bilsborough, Lizzi Bougatsos, BREYER P-ORRIDGE, Asger Carlsen, Troels Carlsen, Walt Cassidy, Andy Coolquitt, Vaginal Davis, Carlton DeWoody, Joey Frank, Paul Gabrielli, Ludovica Gioscia, Luis Gispert, Terence Hannum, Karen Heagle, Timothy Hull, Doug Ischar, Brian Kenny, Jeremy Kost, Aaron Krach, Yeni Mao, Leigha Mason, Mark McCoy, Robert Melee, Lucas Michael, Jennifer Needleman, Brent Owens, Paul P., Paolo Di Paolo, Franklin Preston, John Russell, Xaviera Simmons, Duston Spear, Scott Treleaven, Ramon Vega, Jordan Wolfson, Dustin Yellin

Prospective Clinical Trial Comparing Outcome Measures Between Furlow and von Langenbeck Palatoplasties for UCLP

The goal of this prospective randomized clinical trial was to compare 2 cohorts of standardized cleft patients with regard to functional speech outcome and the presence or absence of palatal fistulae. The 2 cohorts are randomized to undergo either a conventional von Langenbeck repair with intravelar velarplasty or the double-opposing Z-plasty Furlow procedure. A prospective 2 x 2 x 2 factorial clinical trial was used in which each subject was randomly assigned to 1 of 8 different groups: 1 of 2 different lip repairs (Spina vs. Millard), 1 of 2 different palatal repair (von Langenbeck vs. Furlow), and 1 of 2 different ages at time of palatal surgery (9-12 months vs. 15-18 months). All surgeries were performed by the same 4 surgeons. A cul-de-sac test of hypernasality and a mirror test of nasal air emission were selected as primary outcome measures for velopharyngeal function. Both a surgeon and speech pathologist examined patients for the presence of palatal fistulae. In this study, the Furlow double-opposing Z-palatoplasty resulted in significantly better velopharyngeal function for speech than the von Langenbeck procedure as determined by the perceptual cul-de-sac test of hypernasality. Fistula occurrence was significantly higher for the Furlow procedure than for the von Langenbeck. Fistulas were more likely to occur in patients with wider clefts and when relaxing incisions were not used.

Methods for Equivalence and Noninferiority Testing

Classical hypothesis testing focuses on testing whether treatments have differential effects on outcome. However, sometimes clinicians may be more interested in determining whether treatments are equivalent or whether one has noninferior outcomes. We review the hypotheses for these noninferiority and equivalence research questions, consider power and sample size issues, and discuss how to perform such a test for both binary and survival outcomes. The methods are illustrated on 2 recent studies in hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Modelo estrutural de previsão de preço e volume negociado de minério de ferro

O presente estudo apresenta um modelo de previsão do preço e do volume comercializado no mercado transoceânico de minério de ferro. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um modelo VAR, utilizando, além das variáveis endógenas com um lag de diferença, o preço do petróleo Brent e um índice de produção industrial. Após testar raiz unitária das variáveis e constatar que nenhuma era estacionária, o teste de cointegração atestou que existia relação de longo prazo entre as mesmas que era estacionária, afastando a possibilidade de uma regressão espúria. Como resultado, a modelagem VAR apresentou um modelo consistente, com elevada aderência para a previsão do preço e do volume negociado de minério de ferro no mercado transoceânico, não obstante ele tenha apresentado alguma imprecisão no curto prazo.

The Hunt for New Physics at the Large Hadron Collider

The Large Hadron Collider presents an unprecedented opportunity to probe the realm of new physics in the TeV region and shed light on some of the core unresolved issues of particle physics. These include the nature of electroweak symmetry breaking, the origin of mass, the possible constituent of cold dark matter, new sources of CP violation needed to explain the baryon excess in the universe, the possible existence of extra gauge groups and extra matter, and importantly the path Nature chooses to resolve the hierarchy problem - is it supersymmetry or extra dimensions. Many models of new physics beyond the standard model contain a hidden sector which can be probed at the LHC. Additionally, the LHC will be a. top factory and accurate measurements of the properties of the top and its rare decays will provide a window to new physics. Further, the LHC could shed light on the origin of neutralino masses if the new physics associated with their generation lies in the TeV region. Finally, the LHC is also a laboratory to test the hypothesis of TeV scale strings and D brane models. An overview of these possibilities is presented in the spirit that it will serve as a companion to the Technical Design Reports (TDRs) by the particle detector groups ATLAS and CMS to facilitate the test of the new theoretical ideas at the LHC. Which of these ideas stands the test of the LHC data will govern the course of particle physics in the subsequent decades.