Establishing a minimum dataset for prospective registration of systematic reviews: an international consultation

Background: In response to growing recognition of the value of prospective registration of systematic review protocols, we planned to develop a web-based open access international register. In order for the register to fulfil its aims of reducing unplanned duplication, reducing publication bias, and providing greater transparency, it was important to ensure the appropriate data were collected. We therefore undertook a consultation process with experts in the field to identify a minimum dataset for registration. Methods and Findings: A two-round electronic modified Delphi survey design was used. The international panel surveyed included experts from areas relevant to systematic review including commissioners, clinical and academic researchers, methodologists, statisticians, information specialists, journal editors and users of systematic reviews. Direct invitations to participate were sent out to 315 people in the first round and 322 in the second round. Responses to an open invitation to participate were collected separately. There were 194 (143 invited and 51 open) respondents with a 100% completion rate in the first round and 209 (169 invited and 40 open) respondents with a 91% completion rate in the second round. In the second round, 113 (54%) of the participants reported having previously taken part in the first round. Participants were asked to indicate whether a series of potential items should be designated as optional or required registration items, or should not be included in the register. After the second round, a 70% or greater agreement was reached on the designation of 30 of 36 items. Conclusions: The results of the Delphi exercise have established a dataset of 22 required items for the prospective registration of systematic reviews, and 18 optional items. The dataset captures the key attributes of review design as well as the administrative details necessary for registration.

Construction of Drug–Polymer Thermodynamic Phase Diagrams Using Flory–Huggins Interaction Theory: Identifying the Relevance of Temperature and Drug Weight Fraction to Phase Separation within Solid Dispersions

Amorphous drug-polymer solid dispersions have the potential to enhance the dissolution performance and thus bioavailability of BCS class II drug compounds. The principle drawback of this approach is the limited physical stability of amorphous drug within the dispersion. Accurate determination of the solubility and miscibility of drug in the polymer matrix is the key to the successful design and development of such systems. In this paper, we propose a novel method, based on Flory-Huggins theory, to predict and compare the solubility and miscibility of drug in polymeric systems. The systems chosen for this study are (1) hydroxypropyl methylcellulose acetate succinate HF grade (HPMCAS-HF)-felodipine (FD) and (2) Soluplus (a graft copolymer of polyvinyl caprolactam-polyvinyl acetate-polyethylene glycol)-FD. Samples containing different drug compositions were mixed, ball milled, and then analyzed by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The value of the drug-polymer interaction parameter ? was calculated from the crystalline drug melting depression data and extrapolated to lower temperatures. The interaction parameter ? was also calculated at 25 °C for both systems using the van Krevelen solubility parameter method. The rank order of interaction parameters of the two systems obtained at this temperature was comparable. Diagrams of drug-polymer temperature-composition and free energy of mixing (?G mix) were constructed for both systems. The maximum crystalline drug solubility and amorphous drug miscibility may be predicted based on the phase diagrams. Hyper-DSC was used to assess the validity of constructed phase diagrams by annealing solid dispersions at specific drug loadings. Three different samples for each polymer were selected to represent different regions within the phase diagram

Decomposing the mid-holocene Tsuga decline in eastern North America

The mid-Holocene decline of Tsuga canadensis (hereafter Tsuga) populations across eastern North America is widely perceived as a synchronous event, driven by pests/pathogens, rapid climate change, or both. Pattern identification and causal attribution are hampered by low stratigraphic density of pollen-sampling and radiometric dates at most sites, and by absence of highly resolved, paired pollen and paleoclimate records from single sediment cores, where chronological order of climatic and vegetational changes can be assessed. We present an intensely sampled (contiguous 1-cm intervals) record of pollen and water table depth (inferred from testate amoebae) from a single core spanning the Tsuga decline at Irwin Smith Bog in Lower Michigan, with high-precision chronology. We also present an intensively sampled pollen record from Tower Lake in Upper Michigan. Both sites show high-magnitude fluctuations in Tsuga pollen percentages during the pre-decline maximum. The terminal decline is dated at both sites ca. 5000 cal yr BP, some 400 years later than estimates from other sites and data compilations. The terminal Tsuga decline was evidently heterochronous across its range. A transient decline ca. 5350 cal yr BP at both sites may correspond to the terminal decline at other sites in eastern North America. At Irwin Smith Bog, the terminal Tsuga decline preceded an abrupt and persistent decline in water table depths by;200 years, suggesting the decline was not directly driven by abrupt climate change. The Tsuga decline may best be viewed as comprising at least three phases: a long-duration predecline maximum with high-magnitude and high-frequency fluctuations, followed by a terminal decline at individual sites, followed in turn by two millennia of persistently low Tsuga populations. These phases may not be causally linked, and may represent dynamics taking place at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Further progress toward understanding the phenomenon requires an expanded network of high-resolution pollen and paleoclimate chronologies.

Climate-related changes in peatland carbon accumulation during the last millennium

Peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon store and a persistent natural carbon sink during the Holocene, but there is considerable uncertainty over the fate of peatland carbon in a changing climate. It is generally assumed that higher temperatures will increase peat decay, causing a positive feedback to climate warming and contributing to the global positive carbon cycle feedback. Here we use a new extensive database of peat profiles across northern high latitudes to examine spatial and temporal patterns of carbon accumulation over the past millennium. Opposite to expectations, our results indicate a small negative carbon cycle feedback from past changes in the long-term accumulation rates of northern peatlands. Total carbon accumulated over the last 1000 yr is linearly related to contemporary growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation, suggesting that variability in net primary productivity is more important than decomposition in determining long-term carbon accumulation. Furthermore, northern peatland carbon sequestration rate declined over the climate transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA), probably because of lower LIA temperatures combined with increased cloudiness suppressing net primary productivity. Other factors including changing moisture status, peatland distribution, fire, nitrogen deposition, permafrost thaw and methane emissions will also influence future peatland carbon cycle feedbacks, but our data suggest that the carbon sequestration rate could increase over many areas of northern peatlands in a warmer future.