961 resultados para Bleaching dynamic. Abiotic parameters. Coral coverage. Maracajaú reefs
Resumo:
Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), Acanthaster planci, contribute to major declines of coral reef ecosystems throughout the Indo-Pacific. As the oceans warm and decrease in pH due to increased anthropogenic CO2 production, coral reefs are also susceptible to bleaching, disease and reduced calcification. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming may be exacerbated by COTS predation, but it is not known how this major predator will fare in a changing ocean. Because larval success is a key driver of population outbreaks, we investigated the sensitivities of larval A. planci to increased temperature (2-4 °C above ambient) and acidification (0.3-0.5 pH units below ambient) in flow-through cross-factorial experiments (3 temperature × 3 pH/pCO2 levels). There was no effect of increased temperature or acidification on fertilization or very early development. Larvae reared in the optimal temperature (28 °C) were the largest across all pH treatments. Development to advanced larva was negatively affected by the high temperature treatment (30 °C) and by both experimental pH levels (pH 7.6, 7.8). Thus, planktonic life stages of A. planci may be negatively impacted by near-future global change. Increased temperature and reduced pH had an additive negative effect on reducing larval size. The 30 °C treatment exceeded larval tolerance regardless of pH. As 30 °C sea surface temperatures may become the norm in low latitude tropical regions, poleward migration of A. planci may be expected as they follow optimal isotherms. In the absence of acclimation or adaptation, declines in low latitude populations may occur. Poleward migration will be facilitated by strong western boundary currents, with possible negative flow-on effects on high latitude coral reefs. The contrasting responses of the larvae of A. planci and those of its coral prey to ocean acidification and warming are considered in context with potential future change in tropical reef ecosystems.
Resumo:
In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.
Resumo:
Evolutionary algorithms are suitable to solve damage identification problems in a multi-objective context. However, the performance of these methods can deteriorate quickly with increasing noise intensities originating numerous uncertainties. In this paper, a statistic structural damage detection method formulated in a multi-objective context is proposed. The statistic analysis is implemented to take into account the uncertainties existing in the structural model and measured structural modal parameters. The presented method is verified by a number of simulated damage scenarios. The effects of noise and damage levels on damage detection are investigated.
Resumo:
Two methods are commonly used to measure the community metabolism (primary production, respiration, and calcification) of shallow-water marine communities and infer air–sea CO2 fluxes: the pH-total alkalinity and pH-O2 techniques. The underlying assumptions of each technique are examined to assess the recent claim that the most widely used technique in coral reefs (pH-total alkalinity), may have provided spurious results in the past because of high rates of nitrification and release of phosphoric acid in the water column [Chisholm, J. R. M. & Barnes, D. J. (1998) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95, 6566–6569]. At least three lines of evidence suggest that this claim is not founded. First, the rate of nitrification required to explain the discrepancy between the two methods recently reported is not realistic as it is much higher than the rates measured in another reef system and greater than the highest rate measured in a marine environment. Second, fluxes of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphorus are not consistent with high rates of nitrification and release of phosphoric acid. Third, the consistency of the metabolic parameters obtained by using the two techniques is in good agreement in two sites recently investigated. The pH-total alkalinity technique therefore appears to be applicable in most coral reef systems. Consequently, the conclusion that most coral reef flats are sources of CO2 to the atmosphere does not need revision. Furthermore, we provide geochemical evidence that calcification in coral reefs, as well as in other calcifying ecosystems, is a long-term source of CO2 for the atmosphere.
Resumo:
Based on the recent high-resolution laboratory experiments on propagating shear rupture, the constitutive law that governs shear rupture processes is discussed in view of the physical principles and constraints, and a specific constitutive law is proposed for shear rupture. It is demonstrated that nonuniform distributions of the constitutive law parameters on the fault are necessary for creating the nucleation process, which consists of two phases: (i) a stable, quasistatic phase, and (ii) the subsequent accelerating phase. Physical models of the breakdown zone and the nucleation zone are presented for shear rupture in the brittle regime. The constitutive law for shear rupture explicitly includes a scaling parameter Dc that enables one to give a common interpretation to both small scale rupture in the laboratory and large scale rupture as earthquake source in the Earth. Both the breakdown zone size Xc and the nucleation zone size L are prescribed and scaled by Dc, which in turn is prescribed by a characteristic length lambda c representing geometrical irregularities of the fault. The models presented here make it possible to understand the earthquake generation process from nucleation to unstable, dynamic rupture propagation in terms of physics. Since the nucleation process itself is an immediate earthquake precursor, deep understanding of the nucleation process in terms of physics is crucial for the short-term (or immediate) earthquake prediction.
Resumo:
v.28 (1903) plates 2