Estimating parameters in Markov models for longitudinal studies with missing data or surrogate outcomes

The discrete-time Markov chain is commonly used in describing changes of health states for chronic diseases in a longitudinal study. Statistical inferences on comparing treatment effects or on finding determinants of disease progression usually require estimation of transition probabilities. In many situations when the outcome data have some missing observations or the variable of interest (called a latent variable) can not be measured directly, the estimation of transition probabilities becomes more complicated. In the latter case, a surrogate variable that is easier to access and can gauge the characteristics of the latent one is usually used for data analysis. ^ This dissertation research proposes methods to analyze longitudinal data (1) that have categorical outcome with missing observations or (2) that use complete or incomplete surrogate observations to analyze the categorical latent outcome. For (1), different missing mechanisms were considered for empirical studies using methods that include EM algorithm, Monte Carlo EM and a procedure that is not a data augmentation method. For (2), the hidden Markov model with the forward-backward procedure was applied for parameter estimation. This method was also extended to cover the computation of standard errors. The proposed methods were demonstrated by the Schizophrenia example. The relevance of public health, the strength and limitations, and possible future research were also discussed. ^

A cross-sectional analysis of physical activity and obesity in inner city Houston Texas Mexican American youth

Obesity prevalence among children and adolescents is rising. It is one of the most attributable causes of hospitalization and death. Overweight and obese children are more likely to suffer from associated conditions such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, chronic inflammation, increased blood clotting tendency, endothelial dysfunction, hyperinsulinemia, and asthma. These children and adolescents are also more likely to be overweight and obese in adulthood. Interestingly, rates of obesity and overweight are not evenly distributed across racial and ethnic groups. Mexican American youth have higher rates of obesity and are at higher risk of becoming obese than non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white children. ^ Methods. This cross-sectional study describes the association between rates of obesity and physical activity in a sample of 1313 inner-city Mexican American children and adolescents (5-19 years of age) in Houston, Texas. This study is important because it will contribute to our understanding of childhood and adolescent obesity in this at-risk population. ^ Data from the Mexican American Feasibility Cohort using the Mano a Mano questionnaire are used to describe this population's status of obesity and physical activity. An initial sample taken from 5000 households in inner city Houston Texas was used as the baseline for this prospective cohort. The questionnaire was given in person to the participants to complete (or to parents for younger children) at a home visit by two specially trained bilingual interviewers. Analysis comprised prevalence estimates of obesity represented as percentile rank (<85%= normal weight, >85%= at risk, >95%= obese) by age and gender. The association between light, moderate, strenuous activity, and obesity was also examined using linear regression. ^ Results. Overall, 46% of this Mexican American Feasibility cohort is overweight or obese. The prevalence for children in the 6-11 age range (53.2%) was significantly greater than that reported from NHANES, 1999–2002 data (39.4%). Although the percentage of overweight and obese among the 12-19 year olds was greater than that reported in NHANES (38.5% versus 38.6%) this difference was not statistically significant. ^ A significant association between BMI and sit time and moderate physical activity (both p < 0.05) found in this sample. For males, this association was significant for moderate physical activity (p < 0.01). For the females, this association was significant for BMI and sit time (p < 0.05). These results need to be interpreted in the light of design and measurement limitations. ^ Conclusion. This study supports observations that the inner city Houston Texas Mexican American child and adolescent population is more overweight and obese than nationally reported figures, and that there are positive relationships between BMI, activity levels, and sit time in this population. This study supports the need for public health initiatives within the Houston Hispanic community. ^

Assessing childhood difficulties: Comparing the SDQ and the BASC-2

This study of the Behavior Assessment System for Children, Second Edition (BASC-2), had two objectives. First, was to compare the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the BASC-2. Participants were students from SBISD, identified as having difficulties, assessed with the BASC-2 and completed the SDQ. Based on the small sample (N=8), scores from the SDQ and the BASC-2 were found to correlate highly with one another on most conceptually similar scales. With both Parent and Teacher raters, diagnostic concordance was high for nearly all behavior and emotional problem scales. While the diagnostic concordance of the SDQ and BASC-2 looks promising, results need to be replicated with a larger sample. ^ The second objective was to assess the BASC-2 inter-informant concordance (parent, teacher and child). Participants were 145 students, 3-17 years, 78.6% male, 28% Hispanic, 37% White, 34% Black, and 64% were economically disadvantaged. Of the four dyads, teacher-teacher pairs had the highest correlations and agreement levels, especially on externalizing scale items, regardless of the subjects' age group, gender or ethnicity. ^ Overall, parent-teacher pairs had low to moderate concordance for most scale items, with slightly higher agreement for externalizing problems, with better concordance for preschool children, very low correlations with girls' ratings, but moderate correlations with boy ratings. Correlational results were generally moderate for teachers and parents of White children and low for teachers and parents of Hispanic and Black children. ^ Parent-child self-reports had low concordance for nearly all scale items evaluated, particularly with girl self-raters, but moderate with the boys. Conversely, Teacher-Girl pairs had larger correlations than with Boy. Parents reported substantially higher frequency of disorder endorsement than reported by the children, regardless of the child's ethnicity or gender. While generally low, Teachers and Black students had higher concordance on internalizing measures than Hispanic or White students. Parents of Black students had higher frequency of disorder endorsements than other ethnicities. ^ The difference in format and lack of externalizing measures on the self-report version (SRP) hinders inter-rater comparisons. Future studies using the revised, BASC-2 with children in a school-based setting are needed to assess further its rater reliability. ^

Crossing the border for dental care: Factors related to dental health among the south Texas border region

Objectives. The purpose of this thesis is to understand the underlying socioeconomic characteristics affecting dental insurance coverage, yearly dental visits, and factors related to visiting a dentist in Mexico among border region residents. Methods. Using data from the Border Epidemiological Study of Aging, dental utilization in the previous 12 months, dental visits to Mexico, and dental insurance (proxy) were calculated utilizing logistic regression. Three different models were utilized for the dependent variables adjusting for diverse socioeconomic characteristics such as gender, age, marital status, income, education, years of residence in the United States (for immigrants), English proficiency, general health status, employment and dental insurance. Results. After adjustment, diverse variables were significant for the three different models calculated. Conclusion. Although the Mexican health market constitutes a viable option for dental services for border residents, dental insurance and dental yearly visits were lower in this region when compared to national averages. ^

The association of HSV 1 and 2 with atherosclerosis defined by CRP level

A study of the association of Herpes simplex virus 1 and 2 exposure to early atherosclerosis using high C-reactive protein level as a marker was carried out in US born, non-pregnant, 20-49 year olds participating in a national survey between 1999 and 2004. Participants were required to have valid results for Herpes simplex virus 1 and 2 and C-Reactive Protein for inclusion. Cases were those found to have a high C-reactive protein level of 0.3-1 mg/dL, while controls had low to normal values (0.01-0.29 mg/dL). Overall, there were 1211 cases and 2870 controls. Mexican American and non-Hispanic black women were much more likely to fall into the high cardiac risk group than the other sex race groups with proportions of 44% and 39%, respectively. ^ Herpesvirus exposure was categorized such that Herpes simplex virus 1 and 2 exposure could be studied simultaneously within the same individual and models. The HSV 1+, HSV 2- category included the highest percentage (45.63%) of participants, followed by HSV 1-, HSV 2- (30.16%); HSV 1+, HSV 2+ (15.09%); and HSV 1-, HSV 2+ (9.12%) respectively. The proportion of participants in the HSV 1+, HSV 2- category was substantially higher in Mexican Americans (63%-66%). Further, the proportion in the HSV 1+, HSV 2+ category was notably higher in the non-Hispanic black participants (23%-44%). Non-Hispanic black women also had the highest percentage of HSV 1-, HSV 2+ exposure of all the sex race groups at 17%. ^ Overall, the unadjusted odds ratios for atherosclerotic disease defined by C-reactive protein with HSV 1-, HSV 2- as the referent group was 1.62 (95% CI 1.23-2.14) for HSV 1 +, HSV 2+; 1.3 (95% CI 1.10-1.69 for HSV 1+, HSV 2-; and 1.52 (95% CI 1.14-2.01). When the study was stratified into sex-race groups, only HSV 1+, HSV 2- in the Non-Hispanic white men remained significant (OR=1.6; 95% CI 1.06-2.43). Adjustment for selected covariates was made in the multivariate model for both the overall and sex-race stratified studies. High C-reactive protein values were not associated with any of the Herpesvirus exposure levels in either the overall or stratified analyses. ^

Physician coding for mental illness reimbursement and the need for mental health parity

Many patients with anxiety and depression initially seek treatment from their primary care physicians. Changes in insurance coverage and current mental parity laws, make reimbursement for services a problem. This has led to a coding dilemma for physicians seeking payment for their services. This study seeks to determine first the frequency at which primary care physicians use alternative coding, and secondly, if physicians would change their coding practices, provided reimbursement was assured through changes in mental parity laws. A mail survey was sent to 260 randomly selected primary care physicians, who are family practice, internal medicine, and general practice physicians, and members of the Harris County Medical Society. The survey evaluated the physicians' demographics, the number of patients with psychiatric disorders seen by primary care physicians, the frequency with which physicians used alternative coding, and if mental parity laws changed, the rate at which physicians would use a psychiatric illness diagnosis as the primary diagnostic code. The overall response rate was 23%. Only 47 of the 59 physicians, who responded, qualified for the study and of those 45% used a psychiatric disorder to diagnose patients with a primary psychiatric disorder, 47% used a somatic/symptom disorder, and 8% used a medical diagnosis. From the physicians who would not use a psychiatric diagnosis as a primary ICD-9 code, 88% were afraid of not being reimbursed and 12% were worried about stigma or jeopardizing insurability. If payment were assured using a psychiatric diagnostic code, 81% physicians would use a psychiatric diagnosis as the primary diagnostic code. However, 19% would use an alternative diagnostic code in fear of stigmatizing and/or jeopardizing patients' insurability. Although the sample size of the study design was adequate, our survey did not have an ideal response rate, and no significant correlation was observed. However, it is evident that reimbursement for mental illness continues to be a problem for primary care physicians. The reformation of mental parity laws is necessary to ensure that patients receive mental health services and that primary care physicians are reimbursed. Despite the possibility of improved mental parity legislation, some physicians are still hesitant to assign patients with a mental illness diagnosis, due to the associated stigma, which still plays a role in today's society. ^

A program manual to assist with implementation of a volunteer health and wellness program

Based on the success of a community health and wellness program, Wellness in the City, delivered in Dallas County by trained volunteers, Texas Cooperative Extension (TCE) decided to pilot the program in 16 counties in North and East Texas. Before implementing the program, TCE wanted the Dallas County program to be reviewed and revised as needed to meet the diverse community needs in the pilot counties. TCE also asked for an implementation manual to be developed for the county agents to utilize. ^ To achieve these objectives, I first reviewed literature on other volunteer-implemented health interventions in the U.S. to see how they were planned, disseminated, implemented, and evaluated. Next, I reviewed the Wellness in the City program and materials. I applied all the information I gathered up to that point to the program development committee meetings (committee included seven TCE county agents, a TCE regional program director, and me). The program structure and training materials were revised based on our research and program implementation experience. These changes were made to ensure adequate training for the volunteers and to create a program that is applicable in the communities it will be piloted in. ^ With the program structure and training presentations developed, next I focused on compiling the implementation manual, which includes program details and volunteer recruitment, training, and management materials. The goal was to create a manual with everything the county agents will need to implement the program, so they can focus their efforts on putting the manual to use and recruiting and managing the volunteers. The final step was developing a program evaluation form for the agents to complete. It includes questions to assess the agents' thoughts about the training content, the feasibility of implementing the program using the manual, and the challenges of the program. ^

Restoring mortality as a measure of community health

In the last several decades traditional community health indicators have become ambiguous and lost some of their relevance. During this same period national and international health agencies adopted new expanded definitions of Health that include underlying social determinants. These two influences are responsible for a proliferation of new health indicators and many are constructed from a combination of older mortality measures and available information on morbidity. Problems inherent in attempting to combine these sources of information have produced a situation where some indicators are difficult to calculate at the national level and may not function at all for small communities. What is needed is a relevant measure of the burden of ill health appropriate for smaller populations that is accessible to local health planners. ^ Death records are still the best available population health information. In Europe the burden of health problems is often portrayed using 'premature' death. Health agencies in the United States have moved to adopt Years of Potential Life Lost. Both these regions are also developing systems of 'avoidable' or 'preventable' death as health indicators. This research proposes a method combining these methodologies to produce a relevant indicator portraying the burden of ill health in communities. ^

The local safety net, health insurance, preventable hospitalizations and costs: Harris County (Houston), Texas

The aim of this study was to examine the association between determinants of access to healthcare and preventable hospitalizations, based on Davidson et al.'s framework for evaluating the effects of individual and community determinants on access to healthcare. The study population consisted of the low income, non-elderly, hospitalized adults residing in Harris County, Texas in 2004. The objectives of this study were to examine the proportion of the variance in preventable hospitalizations at the ZIP-code level, to analyze the association between the proximity to the nearest safety net clinic and preventable hospitalizations, to examine how the safety net capacity relates to preventable hospitalizations, to compare the relative strength of the associations of health insurance and the proximity to the nearest safety net clinic with preventable hospitalizations, and to estimate and compare the costs of preventable hospitalizations in Harris County with the average cost in the literature. The data were collected from Texas Health Care Information Collection (2004), Census 2000, and Project Safety Net (2004). A total of 61,841 eligible individuals were included in the final data analysis. A random-intercept multi-level model was constructed with two different levels of data: the individual level and the ZIP-code level. The results of this study suggest that ZIP-code characteristics explain about two percent of the variance in preventable hospitalizations and safety net capacity was marginally significantly associated with preventable hospitalizations (p= 0.062). Proximity to the nearest safety net clinic was not related to preventable hospitalizations; however, health insurance was significantly associated with a decreased risk of preventable hospitalization. The average direct cost was $6,466 per preventable hospitalization, which is significantly different from reports in the literature. ^

Youth population's health issues in Comal County, Texas

This study assesses adolescent's health issues in Comal County, TX. Adolescents are defined as youth between the ages of 12 to 17 years of age, who resided in Comal County during the time period of 2000 to 2007. The analysis focused on high risk behaviors including use of gateway drugs—tobacco and alcohol; illegal substance use; and reproductive health related indicators, including sexual activity, sexually transmitted diseases, and pregnancy. This study is based on the primary and secondary data collected as part of the 2008 Comal County Community Assessment. It compares findings from the primary data sources to extant data from four secondary data sources including: (1) The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (national) Healthy People 2010; (2) The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey, 2007; (3) The Texas Department of State Health Services, 2000 to 2007; and The Pride Survey (Local and Statewide). The methods are drawn from the literature on "rapid epidemiologic appraisal" (Annett H. & Rifkin S. B., 1988). The study focus on corroborating the perceptions, subjective concerns, opinions and beliefs of the Comal County key stakeholders and community participants with qualitative and quantitative indicators of health and well being. The value of this approach is to inform community leaders using a public health perspective and evidence in their decisions about priority setting and resources allocation activities for prevention of high risk behaviors and promotion of adolescent health and well being. ^

Household health assessment and associated water sample analysis in the Miches watershed of the Dominican Republic

Background. Diarrhea and malnutrition are the leading causes of mortality for children age one to four in the Dominican Republic. Communities within the Miches watershed lack sanitation infrastructure and water purification systems, which increases the risk of exposure to water-borne pathogens. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to analyze health information gathered through household interviews and to test water samples for the presence of diarrheagenic pathogens and antibiotic-resistant bacteria within the Miches watershed. Methods. Frequency counts and thematic analysis were used to investigate Human Health Survey responses and Fisher's exact test was used to determine correlation between water source and reported illness. Bacteria cultured from water samples were analyzed by Gram stain, real-time PCR, API® 20E biochemical identification, and for antibiotic resistance. Results. Community members reported concerns about water sources with respect to water quality, availability, and environmental contamination. Pathogenic strains of E. coli were present in the water samples. Drinking aquifer water was positively-correlated with reported stomach aches (p=0.04) while drinking from rivers or creeks was associated with the reported absence of “gripe” (cold or flu) (p=0.01). The lack of association between reported illnesses and water source for the majority of variables suggested that there were multiple vehicles of disease transmission. Antibiotic resistant bacteria were isolated from the water samples tested. Conclusions. The presence of pathogenic E. coli in water samples suggested that water is at least one route of transmission for diarrheagenic pathogens in the Miches watershed. The presence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the water samples may indicate the proliferation of resistance plasmids in the environment as a result of antibiotic overuse in human and animal populations and a lack of sanitation infrastructure. An intervention that targets areas of hygiene, sanitation, and water purification is recommended to limit human exposure to diarrheagenic pathogens and antibiotic-resistant organisms. ^

An overview of China's one child policy and health consequences on society

In 1979, China implemented the one child policy to stifle the burden of the massive demographic growth cast on the future economic development and quality of living conditions. At the time, a quarter of the world's population resided in China and occupied only 7 percent of the world's arable land (The World Factbook, 2006). The government set the target total population to about 1.4 billion for the year 2010 and to significantly reduce the natural increase rate. First this overview paper will describe population demographics and economy of China's society. This paper will also investigate what the one child policy entails and how it is implemented. Furthermore, the consequences of the policy in regard to population growth, sex ratio, marital discrepancies, adverse health of mother and child, aging population, and pension coverage will be examined. Finally, future recommendations and an alternative policy will be postulated to increase the effectiveness of the policy and improve its effects on health. ^

Health education intervention to reduce risk of infectious disease transmission among community health workers and their clients

Indigent and congregate-living populations have high susceptibilities for disease and pose a higher risk for disease transmission to family, friends and to persons providing services to these populations. The adoption of basic infection control, personal hygiene, safe food handling and simple engineering practices will reduce the risk of infectious disease transmission to, from and among indigent and congregate-living populations. ^ The provision of social services, health promotion activities and other support services to indigent and congregate-living populations is an important aspect of many public health-related governmental, community-based and other medical care provider agencies. ^ In the interest of protecting the health of indigent and congregate-living populations, of personnel from organizations providing services to these populations and of the general community, an educational intervention is warranted to prevent the spread of blood-borne, air-borne, food-borne and close contact-borne infectious diseases. ^ An educational presentation was provided to staff from a community-based organization specializing in providing housing, health education, foodstuffs and meals and support services to disabled, low-income, homeless and HIV-infected individuals. The educational presentation delivered general best practices and standard guidelines. A pre and post test were administered to determine and measure knowledge pertinent to controlling the spread of infectious diseases between and among homeless shelter-living clients and between clients and the organization's staff. ^ Comparing pre-test and post-test results revealed areas of knowledge currently held by staff and other areas that staff would benefit from additional educational seminars and training. ^

Clinical relevance of polymorphic DNA copy number variation (CNV) in African American women with stage I-II breast cancer

Objectives. The chief goal of this study was to analyze copy number variation (CNV) in breast cancer tumors from 25 African American women with early stage breast cancer (BC) using molecular inversion probes (MIP) in order to: (1) compare the degree of CNV in tumors compared to normal lymph nodes, and (2) determine whether gains and/or losses of genes in specific chromosomes differ between pathologic subtypes of breast cancer defined by known prognostic markers, (3) determine whether gains/losses in CN are associated with known oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes, and (4) determine whether increased gains/losses in CN for specific chromosomes were associated with differences in breast cancer recurrence. ^ Methods. Twenty to 37 nanograms of DNA extracted from 25 formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumor samples and matched normal lymph nodes were added to individual tubes. Oligonucleotide probes with recognition sequences at each terminus were hybridized with a genomic target sequence to form a circular structure. Probes are released from genomic DNA obtained from FFPE samples, and those which have been correctly "circularized" in the proper allele/nucleotide reaction combination are amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers. Amplicons were fluorescently labeled and the tag sequences released from the genome homology regions by treatment with uracil-N-glycosylase to cleave the probe at the site where uracils are present, and detected using a complementary tag array developed by Affymetrix. ^ Results. Analysis of CN gains and losses from tumors and normal tissues showed marked differences in tumors with numerous chromosomes affected. Similar changes were not observed in normal lymph nodes. When tumors were stratified into four groups based on expression or lack of expression of the estrogen receptor and HER2/neu, distinct patterns of CNV for different chromosomes were observed. Gains or losses in CN for specific chromosomes correlated with amplifications/deletions of particular oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes (i.e. such as found on chromosome 17) known to be associated with aggressive tumor phenotype and poor prognosis. There was a trend for increases in CN observed for chromosome 17 to correlate inversely with time to recurrence of BC (p=0.14 for trend). CNV was also observed for chromosomes 5, 8, 10, 11, and 16, which are known sites for several breast cancer susceptibility alleles. ^ Conclusions. This study is the first to validate the MIP technique, to correlate differences in gene expression with known prognostic tumor markers, and to correlate significant increases/decreases in CN with known tumor markers associated with prognosis. The results of this study may have far reaching public health implications towards identifying new high-risk groups based on genomic differences in CNP, both with respect to prognosis and response to therapy, and to eventually identify new therapeutic targets for prevention and treatment of this disease. ^

The School Sealant Program: An evaluation of the oral health education component

Dental caries is a common preventable childhood disease leading to severe physical, mental and economic repercussions for children and their families if left untreated. A needs assessment in Harris County reported that 45.9% of second graders had untreated dental caries. In order to address this growing problem, the School Sealant Program (SSP), a primary preventive initiative, was launched by the Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) to provide oral health education, and underutilized dental preventive services to second grade children from participating Local School Districts (LSDs). ^ To determine the effectiveness and efficiency of the SSP, a program evaluation was conducted by the HDHHS between September 2007 and June 2008 for the Oral Health Education (OHE) component of the SSP. The objective of the evaluation was to assess short term changes in oral health knowledge of the participants and determine if these changes, if any, were due to the OHE sessions. An 8-item multiple choice pre/post test was developed for this purpose and administered to the participants before and immediately after the OHE sessions. ^ The present project analyzed pre and post test data of 1,088 second graders from 22 participating schools. Changes in overall and topic-specific knowledge of the program participants before and after the OHE sessions were analyzed using the Wilcoxon's signed rank test. ^ Results. The overall knowledge assessment showed a statistically significant (p <0.001) increase in the dental health knowledge of the participants after the oral health education sessions. Participants in the higher scoring category (7-8 correct responses) increased from 9.5% at baseline to 60.8% after the education sessions. Overall knowledge increased in all school regions with the highest knowledge gains seen in the Central and South regions. Males and females had similar knowledge gains. Significant knowledge differences were also found for each of the topic specific categories (functions of teeth, healthy diet, healthy habits, dental sealants; p<0.001) indicating an increase in topic specific knowledge of the participants post-health education sessions. ^ Conclusions. The OHE sessions were successful in increasing the short term oral health knowledge of the participants. ^