An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Bio-diverse-city: Elastic Urbanism

Bio-diverse-city was a group exhibition curated by Barry Fitzpatrick, showcasing different approaches to designing for resilient and sustainable futures. Elastic urbanism was exhibited within the framework of artworks exploring the different solutions to designing for the future. A design proposition for new models of sustainable and ecological urban growth structured around natural water and infrastructure. The project integrates four different modelling techniques and is developing an alternative system for predicting the impact of urban growth in the future. The design proposition and exhibition is part of an ongoing research project.

Utilization of bio-oil for cooking and lighting

Among the available alternative sources of energy in Bangladesh bio-oil is recognized to be a promising alternative energy source. Bio-oil can be extracted by pyrolysis as well as expelling or solvent extractionmethod. In these days bio-oil is merely used in vehicles and power plants after some up gradation .However, it is not used for domestic purposes like cooking and lighting due to its high density and viscosity. This paper outlines the design of a gravity stove to use high dense and viscous bio-oil for cooking purpose. For this, Pongamia pinnata (karanj) oil extracted by solvent extraction method is used as fuel fed under gravity force. Efficiency of gravity stove with high dense and viscous bio-oil (karanj) is 11.81% which of kerosene stove is 17.80% also the discharge of karanj oil through gravity stove is sufficient for continuous burning. Thus, bio-oil can be effective replacement of kerosene for domestic purposes.

Using approximate Bayesian computation to estimate transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

In this paper, we apply a simulation based approach for estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens. In particular, the objective is to infer the transmission rate between colonised health-care practitioners and uncolonised patients (and vice versa) solely from routinely collected incidence data. The method, using approximate Bayesian computation, is substantially less computer intensive and easier to implement than likelihood-based approaches we refer to here. We find through replacing the likelihood with a comparison of an efficient summary statistic between observed and simulated data that little is lost in the precision of estimated transmission rates. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of incorporating uncertainty in previously fixed parameters on the precision of the estimated transmission rates.

Pyrolysis of coconut shell for bio-oil

The conversion of coconut shell into pyrolytic oil by fixed bed fire-tube heating reactor has been taken into consideration in this study. The major components of the system were fixed bed fire-tube heating reactor, liquid condenser and collectors. The raw and crushed tamarind seed in particle form was pyrolized in an electrically heated 10 cm diameter and 27 cm high fixed bed reactor. The products are oil, char and gases. The parameters varied were reactor bed temperature, running time, gas flow rate and feed particle size. The parameters were found to influence the product yields significantly. The maximum liquid yield was 34.3 wt% at 4500C for a feed size of 0.6mm at a gas flow rate of 6 liter/min with a running time of minute. The pyrolysis oil was obtained at these optimum process conditions were analyzed for physical and chemical properties to be used as an alternative fuel.

The quantum inspired modelling of changing attitudes and self-organising societies

We utilise the well-developed quantum decision models known to the QI community to create a higher order social decision making model. A simple Agent Based Model (ABM) of a society of agents with changing attitudes towards a social issue is presented, where the private attitudes of individuals in the system are represented using a geometric structure inspired by quantum theory. We track the changing attitudes of the members of that society, and their resulting propensities to act, or not, in a given social context. A number of new issues surrounding this "scaling up" of quantum decision theories are discussed, as well as new directions and opportunities.

Capping computation time and storage requirements for appearance-based localization with CAT-SLAM

Appearance-based localization is increasingly used for loop closure detection in metric SLAM systems. Since it relies only upon the appearance-based similarity between images from two locations, it can perform loop closure regardless of accumulated metric error. However, the computation time and memory requirements of current appearance-based methods scale linearly not only with the size of the environment but also with the operation time of the platform. These properties impose severe restrictions on longterm autonomy for mobile robots, as loop closure performance will inevitably degrade with increased operation time. We present a set of improvements to the appearance-based SLAM algorithm CAT-SLAM to constrain computation scaling and memory usage with minimal degradation in performance over time. The appearance-based comparison stage is accelerated by exploiting properties of the particle observation update, and nodes in the continuous trajectory map are removed according to minimal information loss criteria. We demonstrate constant time and space loop closure detection in a large urban environment with recall performance exceeding FAB-MAP by a factor of 3 at 100% precision, and investigate the minimum computational and memory requirements for maintaining mapping performance.

Climates of Hate: Media and State Inspired Victimisation of Muslims in Canada and Australia since 9/11

This article represents a preliminary comparative exploration of anti-Muslim racism and violence in Australia and Canada, especially since September 11. We contextualise the anti-Muslim vilification and victimisation within parallel – yet still distinct – political climates that bestow permission to hate. That is, negative media portrayals, together with discriminatory rhetoric, policy and practices at the level of the state create an enabling environment that signals the legitimacy of public hostility toward the Muslim communities. We conclude by pointing toward the need for more extensive empirical exploration of the phenomenon in both countries.

The utilization of waste date seed as bio-oil and activated carbon by pyrolysis process

The renovation of biomass waste in the form of date seed waste into activated carbon and biofuel by fixed bed pyrolysis reactor has been focused in this study to obtain gaseous, liquid, and solid products. The date seed in particle form is pyrolysed in an externally heated fixed bed reactor with nitrogen as the carrier gas. The reactor is heated from 400◦C to 600◦C. A maximum liquid yield of 50wt.% and char of 30wt.% are obtained at a reactor bed temperature of 500◦C with a running time of 120 minutes. The oil is found to possess favorable flash point and reasonable density and viscosity. The higher calorific value is found to be 28.636 MJ/kg which is significantly higher than other biomass derived. Decolonization of 85–97% is recorded for the textile effluent and 75–90% for the tannery effluent, in all cases decreasing with temperature increase. Good adsorption capacity of the prepared activated carbon in case of diluted textile and tannery effluent was found.

Design and construction of fixed bed pyrolysis system and plum seed pyrolysis for bio-oil production

This work investigated the production of bio oil from plum seed (Zyziphus jujuba) by fixed bed pyrolysis technology. A fixed bed pyrolysis system has been designed and fabricated for production of bio oil. The major components of the system are: fixed bed reactor, liquid condenser and liquid collector. Nitrogen gas was used to maintain the inert atmosphere in the reactor where the pyrolysis reaction takes place. The feedstock considered in this study is plum seed as it is available waste material in Bangladesh. The reactor is heated by means of a cylindrical biomass external heater. Rice husk was used as the energy source. The products are oil, char and gas. The parameters varied are reactor bed temperature, running time and feed particle size. The parameters are found to influence the product yields significantly. The maximum liquid yield of 39 wt% at 5200C for a feed particle size of 2.36-4.75 mm and a gas flow rate of 8 liter/min with a running time of 120 minute. The pyrolysis oil obtained at these optimum process conditions are analyzed for some of their properties as an alternative fuel. The density of the liquid was closer with diesel. The viscosity of the plum seed liquid was lower than that of the conventional fuels. The calorific value of the pyrolysis oil is one half of the diesel fuel.

A human-simulated immune evolutionary computation approach

Premature convergence to local optimal solutions is one of the main difficulties when using evolutionary algorithms in real-world optimization problems. To prevent premature convergence and degeneration phenomenon, this paper proposes a new optimization computation approach, human-simulated immune evolutionary algorithm (HSIEA). Considering that the premature convergence problem is due to the lack of diversity in the population, the HSIEA employs the clonal selection principle of artificial immune system theory to preserve the diversity of solutions for the search process. Mathematical descriptions and procedures of the HSIEA are given, and four new evolutionary operators are formulated which are clone, variation, recombination, and selection. Two benchmark optimization functions are investigated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed HSIEA.

Utilization of bio-oil for cooking and lighting

Considerable attention has been given to development of renewable energy due to imminent depletion of fossil fuels and environmental concerns over global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to find out all the available alternative sources of energy immediately to meet the increasing energy demand of Bangladesh. Among the available alternative sources of energy in Bangladesh bio-oil is recognized to be a promising alternative energy source. In these days bio-oil is merely used in vehicles and power plants after some up gradation .However, it is not used for domestic purposes like cooking and lighting due to it’s high density and viscosity. A gravity stove is designed to use this high dense and viscous bio-oil for cooking purpose. Efficiency of gravity stove with high dense and viscous bio-oil (karanj) is 11.81% which of kerosene stove is 17.80% also the discharge of karanj oil through gravity stove is sufficient for continuous burning.