921 resultados para Bayesian Statistics, Expert Elicitation, Coral Reefs, Species Richness
Resumo:
Seven coral reef communities were defined on Shiraho fringing reef, Ishigaki Island, Japan. Net photosynthesis and calcification rates were measured by in situ incubations at 10 sites that included six of the defined communities, and which occupied most of the area on the reef flat and slope. Net photosynthesis on the reef flat was positive overall, but the reef flat acts as a source for atmospheric CO2, because the measured calcification/photosynthesis ratio of 2.5 is greater than the critical ratio of 1.67. Net photosynthesis on the reef slope was negative. Almost all excess organic production from the reef flat is expected to be effused to the outer reef and consumed by the communities there. Therefore, the total net organic production of the whole reef system is probably almost zero and the whole reef system also acts as a source for atmospheric CO2. Net calcification rates of the reef slope corals were much lower than those of the branching corals. The accumulation rate of the former was approximately 0.5 m kyr?1 and of the latter was ~0.7-5 m kyr?1. Consequently, reef slope corals could not grow fast enough to keep up with or catch up to rising sea levels during the Holocene. On the other hand, the branching corals grow fast enough to keep up with this rising sea level. Therefore, a transition between early Holocene and present-day reef communities is expected. Branching coral communities would have dominated while reef growth kept pace with sea level rise, and the reef was constructed with a branching coral framework. Then, the outside of this framework was covered and built up by reef slope corals and present-day reefs were constructed.
Resumo:
Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (3) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.