The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.

Aquaporin expression after thrombin preconditioning in ischemic mouse brain

Background: Aquaporin-4 (AQP4), a water channel, is induced early after stroke.The role of AQP4 in the development and resolution of oedema after stroke remainsdebated. The absence of AQP4 in KO-mice reduces the cytotoxic oedema formationbut in contrast aggravates the vasogenic edema. Thrombin at high dose is known toinduce an oedema and at a low dose (thrombin preconditioning, TPC), to inducetolerance to ischemia. We studied the expression of AQPs in ischemic mouse brainsafter TPC and correlation with oedema formation.Methods: For thrombin preconditioning (TPC), mice were injected intracerebroventricularlywith a low dose of thrombin (0.1U in 2?l), followed 24 hours laterby a 30 min transient middle cerebral occlusion (MCAo). AQP4 expression wasevaluated by immunohistochemistry 1h and 48h after ischemia and correlated withoedema formation in vehicle injected and TPC mice.Results: After TPC, oedema formation, assessed by hemispheric enlargement, wassignificantly attenuated at 1h (4.5 ± 2% vs 11.0 ± 5% in CTL, p<0.05, n=8),which was confirmed by wet weight/dry weight ratio (79.6 ± 0.3% vs 80.1 ± 0.1in ctl, p<0.05, n=0.05). At the same time-point, AQP4 expression was significantlyincreased in TPC mice, (148.9% of the control, P<0.05, n=6) in the ischemicstriatum. The oedema was still reduced at 48h after stroke onset in TPC mice. At48h, the level of expression for AQP4 was still higher for TPC animal although notreaching significance (NS). The lesion size was significantly reduced at 48h afterstroke in TPC mice (5.1 ± 1.6 vs 10.6 ± 1.8 mm2 in CTL, n=5).Discussion: The correlation between the early induction of AQP4 and the decreaseof oedema formation in TPC mice suggests that the induction of AQP4 preventsthe development of oedema.Funding: FNS #3100A0-108001, #3200 68306.02 & #3100A0-112484 and Swiss-Heart foundation.

Antigen-induced pleural eosinophilia is suppressed in diabetic rats: role of corticosteroid hormones

Previous studies have evidenced for the existence of interactive regulatory mechanisms between insulin and steroid hormones in different systems. In this study, we have investigated whether endogenous corticosteroids could be implicated in the hyporeactivity to antigen challenge observed in sensitized diabetic rats. Alloxinated rats showed a long-lasting increase in the blood glucose levels and a reduction in the number of pleural mast cells at 48 and 72 hr, but not at 24 hr after alloxan administration. In parallel, they also showed a significant elevation in the plasma levels of corticosterone together with an increase in the adrenal/body weight ratio. Antigen-evoked eosinophil accumulation appeared significantly reduced in rats pretreated with dexamethasone as well as in those rendered diabetic 72 hr after alloxan. In the same way, naive animals treated with dexamethasone also responded with a significant decrease in the number of pleural mast cells. Interestingly, when sensitized diabetic rats were pretreated with the steroid antagonist RU 38486 a reversion of the reduction in the allergen-induced eosinophil accumulation was noted. We conclude that the down-regulation of the allergic inflammatory response in diabetic rats is close-related to reduction in mast cell numbers and over expression of endogenous corticosteroids.

An examination of male and female odds ratios by BMI, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption for cancers of the oral cavity, pharynx, and larynx in pooled data from 15 case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Greater tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption and lower body mass index (BMI) increase odds ratios (OR) for oral cavity, oropharyngeal, hypopharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers; however, there are no comprehensive sex-specific comparisons of ORs for these factors. METHODS: We analyzed 2,441 oral cavity (925 women and 1,516 men), 2,297 oropharynx (564 women and 1,733 men), 508 hypopharynx (96 women and 412 men), and 1,740 larynx (237 women and 1,503 men) cases from the INHANCE consortium of 15 head and neck cancer case-control studies. Controls numbered from 7,604 to 13,829 subjects, depending on analysis. Analyses fitted linear-exponential excess ORs models. RESULTS: ORs were increased in underweight (<18.5 BMI) relative to normal weight (18.5-24.9) and reduced in overweight and obese categories (>/=25 BMI) for all sites and were homogeneous by sex. ORs by smoking and drinking in women compared with men were significantly greater for oropharyngeal cancer (p < 0.01 for both factors), suggestive for hypopharyngeal cancer (p = 0.05 and p = 0.06, respectively), but homogeneous for oral cavity (p = 0.56 and p = 0.64) and laryngeal (p = 0.18 and p = 0.72) cancers. CONCLUSIONS: The extent that OR modifications of smoking and drinking by sex for oropharyngeal and, possibly, hypopharyngeal cancers represent true associations, or derive from unmeasured confounders or unobserved sex-related disease subtypes (e.g., human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer) remains to be clarified.

The Healthy Weight Challenge

To help encourage, facilitate and empower people to adopt healthy lifestyles and to raise awareness of obesity and its causes in order to reduce its prevalence within the target community. Outcome Through Health Classes, Leaflets and Posters, people have developed their knowledge and understanding of obesity. The relationship between members of the community and the pharmacist has also developed as as has the Pharmacists links with GPs, Dieticians, Leisure Centre Management etcï_… All participants thought the healthy weight challenge was a good idea, made them more aware of health and the pharmacy was able to offer advice, information, support and health checks. regular monitoring also helped have a positive impact on participants desire to lose weight and also had positive impact on their efforts to have healthier lifestyle.

Your Choice : Weight Management in Primary Care

The aims of this intervention are 1) To be a targeted intervention: BMI >30 or > 28 for patients with comorbidities provided with support to lose weight. 2) To help patients achieve weight loss (with an initial 5% goal over the 12 week intervention period) 3) To establish primary care weight management services in thecounty 4) To train the primary care workforce in weight managementintervention 5)To help patients make sustainable lifestyle changes in terms ofhealthy eating and physical activity 6)To ensure an appropriate exit strategy was in place

Evaluation of the Birmingham My Choice Adult Weight Management Programme

The aims of this intervention are: To reduce adult obesity levels To improve access to weight management services in primary care. To improve access to weight management services for areas with high BME populations or poor access to commercial weight loss providers To improve diet and nutrition, promote healthy weight and increase levels of physical activity in overweight or obese patients. To support patients to make lifestyle changes to enable them to lose weight

Weigh2go: A Peripatetic Level 1 Weight Management Service

The aim of this intervention is to increase the accessibility of appropriate evidence based support to people who are clinically obese to enable them to make lifestyle changes that will lead to weight loss. Objectives1. Identify patients whose lifestyle put them at risk of obesity and poor health outcomes and provide them with advice and support along with signposting to specific services and activities. 2. Identify patients who are overweight or obese and offer them a structured multi-component programme of support for them to loose weight. 3. Through the use of software collect data to monitor outcomes at individual and practice levels.

Total energy expenditure and patterns of activity in 8-10-year-old obese and nonobese children.

Total energy expenditure (TEE) and patterns of activity were measured by means of a heart rate (HR)-monitoring method in a group of 8-10-year-old children including 13 obese children (weight, 46 +/- 10 kg; fat mass: 32 +/- 9%) and 16 nonobese children (weight, 31 +/- 5 kg; fat mass, 18 +/- 5%). Time for sleeping was not statistically different in the two groups of children (596 +/- 33 vs. 582 +/- 43 min; p = NS). Obese children spent more time doing sedentary activities (400 +/- 129 vs. 295 +/- 127 min; p < 0.05) and less time in nonsedentary activities (449 +/- 126 vs. 563 +/- 135 min; p < 0.05) than nonobese children. Time spent in moderate or vigorous activity-i.e., time spent at a HR between 50% of the maximal O2 uptake (peak VO2) and 70% peak VO2 (moderate) and at a HR > or = 70% peak VO2 (vigorous)-was not statistically different in obese and nonobese children (88 +/- 69 vs. 52 +/- 35 min and 20 +/- 21 vs. 16 +/- 13 min, respectively; p = NS). TEE was significantly higher in the obese group than in the nonobese group (9.46 +/- 1.40 vs. 7.51 +/- 1.67 MJ/day; p < 0.01). The energy expenditure for physical activity (plus thermogenesis) was significantly higher in the obese children (3.98 +/- 1.30 vs. 2.94 +/- 1.39 MJ/day; p < 0.05). The proportion of TEE daily devoted to physical activity (plus thermogenesis) was not significantly different in the two groups, as shown by the ratio between TEE and the postabsorptive metabolic rate (PMR): 1.72 +/- 0.25 obese vs 1.61 +/- 0.28 non-obese. In conclusion, in free-living conditions obese children have a higher TEE than do nonobese children, despite the greater time devoted to sedentary activities. The higher energy cost to perform weight-bearing activities as well as the higher absolute PMR of obese children help explain this apparent paradox.

Is accurate perception of body image associated with appropriate weight-control behavior among adolescents of the Seychelles

BACKGROUND: We examined body image perception and its association with reported weight-control behavior among adolescents in the Seychelles.METHODS: We conducted a school-based survey of 1432 students aging 11-17 years in the Seychelles. Perception of body image was assessed using both a closed-ended question (CEQ) and Stunkard's pictorial silhouettes (SPS). Voluntary attempts to change weight were also assessed.RESULTS: A substantial proportion of the overweight students did not consider themselves as overweight (SPS: 24%, CEQ: 34%), and a substantial proportion of the normal-weight students considered themselves as too thin (SPS: 29%, CEQ: 15%). Logistic regression analysis showed that students with an accurate weight perception were more likely to have appropriate weight-control behavior.CONCLUSIONS: We found that substantial proportions of students had an inaccurate perception of their weight and that weight perception was associated with weight-control behavior. These findings point to forces that can drive the upwards overweight trends.

Genetic variation near IRS1 associates with reduced adiposity and an impaired metabolic profile.

Genome-wide association studies have identified 32 loci influencing body mass index, but this measure does not distinguish lean from fat mass. To identify adiposity loci, we meta-analyzed associations between ∼2.5 million SNPs and body fat percentage from 36,626 individuals and followed up the 14 most significant (P < 10(-6)) independent loci in 39,576 individuals. We confirmed a previously established adiposity locus in FTO (P = 3 × 10(-26)) and identified two new loci associated with body fat percentage, one near IRS1 (P = 4 × 10(-11)) and one near SPRY2 (P = 3 × 10(-8)). Both loci contain genes with potential links to adipocyte physiology. Notably, the body-fat-decreasing allele near IRS1 is associated with decreased IRS1 expression and with an impaired metabolic profile, including an increased visceral to subcutaneous fat ratio, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, risk of diabetes and coronary artery disease and decreased adiponectin levels. Our findings provide new insights into adiposity and insulin resistance.

Intratracheal dopamine attenuates pulmonary edema and improves survival after ventilator-induced lung injury in rats

INTRODUCTION Clearance of alveolar oedema depends on active transport of sodium across the alveolar-epithelial barrier. beta-Adrenergic agonists increase clearance of pulmonary oedema, but it has not been established whether beta-agonist stimulation achieves sufficient oedema clearance to improve survival in animals. The objective of this study was to determine whether the increased pulmonary oedema clearance produced by intratracheal dopamine improves the survival of rats after mechanical ventilation with high tidal volume (HVT). METHODS This was a randomized, controlled, experimental study. One hundred and thirty-two Wistar-Kyoto rats, weighing 250 to 300 g, were anaesthetized and cannulated via endotracheal tube. Pulmonary oedema was induced by endotracheal instillation of saline solution and mechanical ventilation with HVT. Two types of experiment were carried out. The first was an analysis of pulmonary oedema conducted in six groups of 10 rats ventilated with low (8 ml/kg) or high (25 ml/kg) tidal volume for 30 or 60 minutes with or without intratracheally instilled dopamine. At the end of the experiment the animals were exsanguinated and pulmonary oedema analysis performed. The second experiment was a survival analysis, which was conducted in two groups of 36 animals ventilated with HVT for 60 minutes with or without intratracheal dopamine; survival of the animals was monitored for up to 7 days after extubation. RESULTS In animals ventilated at HVT with or without intratracheal dopamine, oxygen saturation deteriorated over time and was significantly higher at 30 minutes than at 60 minutes. After 60 minutes, a lower wet weight/dry weight ratio was observed in rats ventilated with HVT and instilled with dopamine than in rats ventilated with HVT without dopamine (3.9 +/- 0.27 versus 4.9 +/- 0.29; P = 0.014). Survival was significantly (P = 0.013) higher in animals receiving intratracheal dopamine and ventilated with HVT, especially at 15 minutes after extubation, when 11 of the 36 animals in the HVT group had died as compared with only one out of the 36 animals in the HVT plus dopamine group. CONCLUSION Intratracheal dopamine instillation increased pulmonary oedema clearance in rats ventilated with HVT, and this greater clearance was associated with improved survival.

Urinary aminopeptidase activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats

This study analyzes the fluorimetric determination of alanyl- (Ala), glutamyl- (Glu), leucyl-cystinyl- (Cys) and aspartyl-aminopeptidase (AspAp) urinary enzymatic activities as early and predictive biomarkers of renal dysfunction in cisplatin-treated rats. Male Wistar rats (n = 8 each group) received a single subcutaneous injection of either saline or cisplatin 3.5 or 7 mg/kg, and urine samples were taken at 0, 1, 2, 3 and 14 days after treatment. In urine samples we determined Ala, Glu, Cys and AspAp activities, proteinuria, N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG), albumin, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL). Plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and renal morphological variables were measured at the end of the experiment. CysAp, NAG and albumin were increased 48 hours after treatment in the cisplatin 3.5 mg/kg treated group. At 24 hours, all urinary aminopeptidase activities and albuminuria were significantly increased in the cisplatin 7 mg/kg treated group. Aminopeptidase urinary activities correlated (p<0.011; r(2)>0.259) with plasma creatinine, creatinine clearance and/or kidney weight/body weight ratio at the end of the experiment and they could be considered as predictive biomarkers of renal injury severity. ROC-AUC analysis was made to study their sensitivity and specificity to distinguish between treated and untreated rats at day 1. All aminopeptidase activities showed an AUC>0.633. We conclude that Ala, Cys, Glu and AspAp enzymatic activities are early and predictive urinary biomarkers of the renal dysfunction induced by cisplatin. These determinations can be very useful in the prognostic and diagnostic of renal dysfunction in preclinical research and clinical practice.

Alveolar overdistension as a cause of lung injury: differences among three animal species.

This study analyses characteristics of lung injuries produced by alveolar overdistension in three animal species. Mechanical ventilation at normal tidal volume (10 mL/Kg) and high tidal volume (50 mL/Kg) was applied for 30 min in each species. Data were gathered on wet/dry weight ratio, histological score, and area of alveolar collapse. Five out of six rabbits with high tidal volume developed tension pneumothorax, and the rabbit results were therefore not included in the histological analysis. Lungs from the pigs and rats showed minimal histological lesions. Pigs ventilated with high tidal volume had significantly greater oedema, higher neutrophil infiltration, and higher percentage area of alveolar collapse than rats ventilated with high tidal volume. We conclude that rabbits are not an appropriate species for in vivo studies of alveolar overdistension due to their fragility. Although some histological lesions are observed in pigs and rats, the lesions do not appear to be relevant.

Lipid changes in HIV-patients switching to the coformulated single tablet FTC/RPV/TDF (Eviplera®). Efficacy and safety analysis. GeSida Study 8114.

INTRODUCTION Rilpivirine (RPV) has a better lipid profile than efavirenz (EFV) in naïve patients (1). Switching to RPV may be convenient for many patients, while maintaining a good immunovirological control (2). The aim of this study was to analyze lipid changes in HIV-patients at 24 weeks after switching to Eviplera® (emtricitabine/RPV/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [FTC/RPV/TDF]). MATERIALS AND METHODS Retrospective, multicentre study of a cohort of asymptomatic HIV-patients who switched from a regimen based on 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI)+protease inhibitor (PI)/non nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) or ritonavir boosted PI monotherapy to Eviplera® during February-December, 2013; all had undetectable HIV viral load for ≥3 months prior to switching. Patients with previous failures on antiretroviral therapy (ART) including TDF and/or FTC/3TC, with genotype tests showing resistance to components of Eviplera®, or who had changed the third drug of the ART during the study period were excluded. Changes in lipid profile and cardiovascular risk (CVR), and efficacy and safety at 24 weeks were analyzed. RESULTS Among 305 patients included in the study, 298 were analyzed (7 cases were excluded due to lack of data). Men 81.2%, mean age 44.5 years, 75.8% of HIV sexually transmitted. 233 (78.2%) patients switched from a regimen based on 2 NRTI+NNRTI (90.5% EFV/FTC/TDF). The most frequent reasons for switching were central nervous system (CNS) adverse events (31.0%), convenience (27.6%) and metabolic disorders (23.2%). At this time, 293 patients have reached 24 weeks: 281 (95.9%) have continued Eviplera®, 6 stopped it (3 adverse events, 2 virologic failures, 1 discontinuation) and 6 have been lost to follow up. Lipid profiles of 283 cases were available at 24 weeks and mean (mg/dL) baseline vs 24 weeks are: total cholesterol (193 vs 169; p=0.0001), HDL-c (49 vs 45; p=0.0001), LDL-c (114 vs 103; p=0.001), tryglycerides (158 vs 115; p=0.0001), total cholesterol to HDL-c ratio (4.2 vs 4.1; p=0.3). CVR decreased (8.7 vs 7.5%; p= 0.0001). CD4 counts were similar to baseline (653 vs 674 cells/µL; p=0.08), and 274 (96.8%) patients maintained viral suppression. CONCLUSIONS At 24 weeks after switching to Eviplera®, lipid profile and CVR improved while maintaining a good immunovirological control. Most subjects switched to Eviplera® from a regimen based on NNRTI, mainly EFV/FTC/TDF. CNS adverse events, convenience and metabolic disorders were the most frequent reasons for switching.