Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Observational evidence of a coronal mass ejection distortion directly attributable to a structured solar wind

We present the first observational evidence of the near-Sun distortion of the leading edge of a coronal mass ejection (CME) by the ambient solar wind into a concave structure. On 2007 November 14, a CME was observed by coronagraphs onboard the STEREO-B spacecraft, possessing a circular cross section. Subsequently the CME passed through the field of view of the STEREO-B Heliospheric Imagers where the leading edge was observed to distort into an increasingly concave structure. The CME observations are compared to an analytical flux rope model constrained by a magnetohydrodynamic solar wind solution. The resultant bimodal speed profile is used to kinematically distort a circular structure that replicates the initial shape of the CME. The CME morphology is found to change rapidly over a relatively short distance. This indicates an approximate radial distance in the heliosphere where the solar wind forces begin to dominate over the magnetic forces of the CME influencing the shape of the CME.

Airborne measurements of the spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition across Europe and evolution of the organic fraction

The spatial distribution of aerosol chemical composition and the evolution of the Organic Aerosol (OA) fraction is investigated based upon airborne measurements of aerosol chemical composition in the planetary boundary layer across Europe. Sub-micron aerosol chemical composition was measured using a compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToF-AMS). A range of sampling conditions were evaluated, including relatively clean background conditions, polluted conditions in North-Western Europe and the near-field to far-field outflow from such conditions. Ammonium nitrate and OA were found to be the dominant chemical components of the sub-micron aerosol burden, with mass fractions ranging from 20--50% each. Ammonium nitrate was found to dominate in North-Western Europe during episodes of high pollution, reflecting the enhanced NO_x and ammonia sources in this region. OA was ubiquitous across Europe and concentrations generally exceeded sulphate by 30--160%. A factor analysis of the OA burden was performed in order to probe the evolution across this large range of spatial and temporal scales. Two separate Oxygenated Organic Aerosol (OOA) components were identified; one representing an aged-OOA, termed Low Volatility-OOA and another representing fresher-OOA, termed Semi Volatile-OOA on the basis of their mass spectral similarity to previous studies. The factors derived from different flights were not chemically the same but rather reflect the range of OA composition sampled during a particular flight. Significant chemical processing of the OA was observed downwind of major sources in North-Western Europe, with the LV-OOA component becoming increasingly dominant as the distance from source and photochemical processing increased. The measurements suggest that the aging of OA can be viewed as a continuum, with a progression from a less oxidised, semi-volatile component to a highly oxidised, less-volatile component. Substantial amounts of pollution were observed far downwind of continental Europe, with OA and ammonium nitrate being the major constituents of the sub-micron aerosol burden. Such anthropogenically perturbed air masses can significantly perturb regional climate far downwind of major source regions.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - III. Comparison of enzymes derived from psychrophilic, mesophilic or thermophilic sources

A completely randomised study was completed to examine the influence of fibrolytic enzymes derived from psychrophilic, (F), mesophilic, (L) or thermophilic (Ta) sources, applied at ensiling, on the chemical characteristics and in vitro rumen fermentation of maize silage, assessed using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT). Treatments, all in triplicate, consisted of untreated maize forage or treated with preparations F, L, Ta or a mixture (1: 1, v/v) of F and L (FL), at two levels each, and ensiled for 210 days in plastic mini-silos. Addition of enzymes L decreased (P < 0.05) silage pH relative to the control, whereas enzyme Ta tended (P < 0.10) to reduce it. Preparations F, L and Ta tended to reduce (P < 0.10) the fibre contents of the silages, with effects being attributable to a decrease in the cellulose fraction. Starch contents were reduced (P < 0.05) in the treatments including enzyme F. End-point (96 h) gas production (GP) values did not differ among treatments, suggesting that enzymes did not change the total amount of fermentable substrate. However, consistent with the decrease in starch contents, adding enzyme F reduced (P < 0.05) GP at most incubation times. Addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the initial (6 h) organic matter degradation (OMD) levels in all but one treatment (F), with increases of 14, 19, and 26% for preparations L, Ta, and FL, respectively, averaged across levels. Furthermore, the addition of enzymes increased (P < 0.05) the soluble OM losses, however, these increases did not fully account for the initial increase in OMD. The latter suggests that enzymes increased solubility and also altered silage structure, making it more amenable to degradation by ruminal microorganisms. As a result of the increase in OMD, without a concomitant increase in GP, the fermentation efficiency was greatly increased (P < 0.05) in enzyme treatments. Addition of enzymes to maize at ensiling, particularly those from the mesophilic and thermophilic sources used here, have the potential to increase the initial rate of silage OMD. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study by high energy transfer inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy of the mineral fraction of ox femur bone

We have used high energy transfer (HET) inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy to measure the vibrational modes in the spectra of hydroxyapatite, bone and brushite to confirm our earlier work that only a fraction of the hydroxyl groups in bone mineral are substituted. The HET spectra are better observed due to the higher scattering cross section of hydrogen compared with the other elements in the calcium phosphate compounds. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A study by high energy transfer inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy of the mineral fraction of ox femur bone

We have used high energy transfer (HET) inelastic neutron scattering spectroscopy to measure the vibrational modes in the spectra of hydroxyapatite, bone and brushite to confirm our earlier work that only a fraction of the hydroxyl groups in bone mineral are substituted. The HET spectra are better observed due to the higher scattering cross section of hydrogen compared with the other elements in the calcium phosphate compounds. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Verification of cloud-fraction forecasts

Cloud radar and lidar can be used to evaluate the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting the timing and placement of clouds, but care must be taken in choosing the appropriate metric of skill to use due to the non- Gaussian nature of cloud-fraction distributions. We compare the properties of a number of different verification measures and conclude that of existing measures the Log of Odds Ratio is the most suitable for cloud fraction. We also propose a new measure, the Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score, which has very attractive properties, being equitable (for large samples), difficult to hedge and independent of the frequency of occurrence of the quantity being verified. We then use data from five European ground-based sites and seven forecast models, processed using the ‘Cloudnet’ analysis system, to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on cloud fraction threshold (for binary skill scores), height, horizontal scale and (for the Met Office and German Weather Service models) forecast lead time. The models are found to be least skillful at predicting the timing and placement of boundary-layer clouds and most skilful at predicting mid-level clouds, although in the latter case they tend to underestimate mean cloud fraction when cloud is present. It is found that skill decreases approximately inverse-exponentially with forecast lead time, enabling a forecast ‘half-life’ to be estimated. When considering the skill of instantaneous model snapshots, we find typical values ranging between 2.5 and 4.5 days. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Is silt the most influential soil grain size fraction?

The contribution of individual grain size fractions (2000–500, 500–250, 250–63, 63–2 and < 2 μm) to bulk soil surface area and reactivity is discussed with reference to mineralogical and oxalate and dithionite extractions data. The 63–2 μm fraction contributed up to 56% and 67% of bulk soil volume and BET surface area, respectively. Consideration of these observations and the mineralogy of this fraction suggest that the 63–2 μm fraction may be the most influential for the release of elements via mineral dissolution in the bulk soil.

In vitro bioaccessibility and gut biotransformation of polyphenols present in the water-insoluble cocoa fraction

Scope: Cocoa, especially the water-insoluble cocoa fraction (WICF), is a rich source of polyphenols. In this study, sequential in vitro digestion of the WICF with gastrointestinal enzymes as well as its bacterial fermentation in a human colonic model system were carried out to investigate bioaccessibility and biotransformation of WICF polyphenols, respectively. Methods and results: The yield of each enzymatic digestion step and the total antioxidant capacity (TAC) were measured and solubilized phenols were characterized by MS/MS. Fermentation of WICF and the effect on the gut microbiota, SCFA production and metabolism of polyphenols was analyzed. In vitro digestion solubilized 38.6% of WICF with pronase and Viscozyme L treatments releasing 51% of the total phenols from the insoluble material. This release of phenols does not determine a reduction in the total antioxidant capacity of the digestion-resistant material. In the colonic model WICF significantly increased of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli as well as butyrate production. Flavanols were converted into phenolic acids by the microbiota following a concentration gradient resulting in high concentrations of 3-hydroxyphenylpropionic acid (3-HPP) in the last gut compartment. Conclusion: Data showed that WICF may exert antioxidant action through the gastrointestinal tract despite its polyphenols being still bound to macromolecules and having prebiotic activity.

Intake fraction of nonreactive motor vehicle exhaust in HongKong

The intake fraction (iF) of nonreactive constituents of exhaust from mobile vehicles in the urban area of HongKong is investigated using available monitoring data for carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer of opportunity. Correcting for regional transport of carbon monoxide into HongKong, the annual-average iF for nonreactive motor vehicle emissions within the city is estimated to be around 270 per million. This estimated iF is much higher than values previously reported for vehicle emissions in US urban areas, Helsinki and Beijing, and somewhat lower than those reported for a densely populated street canyon in downtown Manhattan, New York City, or for emissions into indoor environments. The reported differences in intakefractions in various cities mainly result from the differences in local population densities. Our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the influence of upwind transport of pollutants when using ambient data to estimate iF for an urban area. For vehicleexhaust in HongKong, it is found that the in/near vehicle microenvironment contributes similarly to the indoor home environment when accounting for the overall iF for children and adults. Keywords Intakefraction; Vehicle emission; Regional pollutant transport; Carbon monoxide; Exposure

CO intake fraction and city ventilation rate in Hong Kong

Given the background of serious urban pollution in Hong Kong, the intake fraction (iF) of carbon monoxide due to mobile vehicles in urban area of Hong Kong is investigated and estimated to be 600 per million, much higher than those in US urban areas, Helsinki and even Beijing, indicating the high exposure level to urban pollutants in Hong Kong. The dependence of iF to the metrological factors is also discussed. Easterly and northerly winds contribute most to the total iF value. A new method of predicting ventilation rate for a city based on iF concept is proposed. City ventilation rates for different cities are calculated and compared. It is found that Hong Kong has to face the fact that it has the lowest ventilation rate and ACH.

Alternating sums of binomial coefficients with unit fraction arithmetic sequence coefficients

Expressions for finite sums involving the binomial coefficients with unit fraction coefficients whose denominators form an arithmetic sequence are determined.