Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Population structure, mortality and growth of Pinna nobilis Linnaeus, 1758 (Mollusca, Bivalvia) at different depths in Moraira bay (Alicante, Western Mediterranean)

An investigation to characterize the causes of Pinna nobilis population structure in Moraira bay (Western Mediterranean) was developed. Individuals of two areas of the same Posidonia meadow, located at different depths (A1, -13 and A2, -6 m), were inventoried, tagged, their positions accurately recorded and monitored from July 1997 to July 2002. On each area, different aspects of population demography were studied (i.e. spatial distribution, size structure, displacement evidences, mortality, growth and shell orientation). A comparison between both groups of individuals was carried out, finding important differences between them. In A1, the individuals were more aggregated and mean and maximum size were higher (A1, 10.3 and A2, 6 individuals/100 m(2); A1, x = 47.2 +/- 9.9; A2, x = 29.8 +/- 7.4 cm, P < 0.001, respectively). In A2, growth rate and mortality were higher, the latter concentrated on the largest individuals, in contrast to A1, where the smallest individuals had the higher mortality rate [A1, L = 56.03(1 - e(-0.17t)); A2, L = 37.59(1 - e(-0.40t)), P < 0.001; mean annual mortality A1: 32 dead individuals out of 135, 23.7% and A2: 16 dead individuals out of 36, 44.4%, and total mortality coefficients (z), z(A1(-30)) = 0.28, z(A1(31-45)) = 0.05, z(A1(46-)) = 0.08; z(A2(-30)) = 0.15, z(A2(31-45)) = 0.25]. A common shell orientation N-S, coincident with the maximum shore exposure, was observed in A2. Spatial distribution in both areas showed not enough evidence to discard a random distribution of the individuals, despite the greater aggregation on the deeper area (A1) (A1, chi(2) = 0.41, df = 3, P > 0.5, A2, chi(2)= 0.98, df = 2 and 0.3 < P < 0.5). The obtained results have demonstrated that the depth-related size segregation usually shown by P. nobilis is mainly caused by differences in mortality and growth among individuals located at different depths, rather than by the active displacement of individuals previously reported in the literature. Furthermore, dwarf individuals are observed in shallower levels and as a consequence, the relationship between size and age are not comparable even among groups of individuals inhabiting the same meadow at different depths. The final causes of the differences on mortality and growth are also discussed.

A maximum-likelihood method for estimating natural mortality and catchability coefficient from catch-and-effort data

A simple stochastic model of a fish population subject to natural and fishing mortalities is described. The fishing effort is assumed to vary over different periods but to be constant within each period. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed for estimating natural mortality (M) and the catchability coefficient (q) simultaneously from catch-and-effort data. If there is not enough contrast in the data to provide reliable estimates of both M and q, as is often the case in practice, the method can be used to obtain the best possible values of q for a range of possible values of M. These techniques are illustrated with tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) data from the Northern Prawn Fishery of Australia.

Prospects for predicting insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations

Typically, in bag-stack or silo fumigations the concentration of phosphine is not constant, and yet most of what is known about phosphine efficacy against grain insects comes from studies with fixed concentrations. Indeed, where changing concentration experiments have been performed, researchers have been unable to explain observed efficacy on the basis of data from fixed concentrations. The ability to predict insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations would facilitate the development of effective fumigation protocols. In this paper, we explore the prospects for making such predictions. After reviewing published and new results, we conclude that the commonly used concentration x time (Ct) product is unreliable for this purpose. New results, for a strongly resistant strain of Rhyzopertha dominica from Australia, suggest that the relationship Cnt = k may be useful for predicting mortality of this type of insect in changing concentrations. However, in the case of a strain of Sitophilus oryzae with a type of resistance common in Australian S. oryzae, the relationship Cnt = k proved to be less reliable.

Predicting mortality of phosphine-resistant adults of Sitophilus oryzae (L) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in relation to changing phosphine concentration

Adults of a phosphine-resistant strain of Sitophilus oryzae (L) were exposed to constant phosphine concentrations of 0.0035-0.9 mg litre(-1) for periods of between 20 and 168 h at 25 °C, and the effects of time and concentration on mortality were quantified. Adults were also exposed to a series of treatments lasting 48, 72 or 168 h at 25 °C, during which the concentration of phosphine was varied. The aim of this study was to determine whether equations from experiments using constant concentrations could be used to predict the efficacy of changing phosphine concentrations against adults of S oryzae. A probit plane without interaction, in which the logarithms of time (t) and concentration (C) were variables, described the effects of concentration and time on mortality in experiments with constant concentrations. A derived equation of the form C^nt = k gave excellent predictions of toxicity when applied to data from changing concentration experiments. The results suggest that for resistant S oryzae adults there is nothing inherently different between constant and changing concentration regimes, and that data collected from fixed concentrations can be used to develop equations for predicting mortality in fumigations in which phosphine concentration changes. This approach could simplify the prediction of efficacy of typical fumigations in which concentrations tend to rise and then fall over a period of days.

Consanguinity, fecundity and post-natal mortality in Karnataka, South India

The degree of consanguinity of the progeny, the number of live-borns and number of living children were determined in 3350 marriages in Bangalore, Karnataka. The coefficient of inbreeding (F) was 0•02308, higher than in comparable, urban populations in other South Indian states. No significant differences were found between the consanguineous and non-consanguineous groups in numbers of live-born or living children nor was there any consanguinity-related trend with respect to these parameters.

Modelling Mortality and Reproduction Rates for Management of Sheep Flocks in Northern Australia

By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

Influence of nitrogen based supplements on live weight, fertility and mortality of heifers grazing dry season native pasture

Supplements containing urea or biuret were fed in the dry season to yearling and two year old pregnant heifers grazing native spear grass pastures in north Queensland. Liveweight change and survival during the dry season and fertility in the following year were measured. In the first experiment during a relatively favourable dry season, supplementation significantly (P<0.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (5 vs. 32 kg). In the following year during a drought, supplement significantly (P<.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (32 vs. 41 kg) and significantly (P <0.01) reduced mortalities (23.5% vs. 5.2%) in pregnant and lactating heifers. The supplement had no significant effect on subsequent fertility in either experiment. 14th Biennial Conference.

Minimising mortality in field and pot experiments using Heteronyx piceus Blanchard (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) eggs and larvae

The establishment of experimental populations of scarab larvae using eggs and early instar larvae has proven to be difficult for many researchers. Despite this, little work has been published examining ways to optimise establishment under artificial conditions. In this experiment, we examined the effect of shade and irrigation on the establishment of Heteronyx piceus Blanchard larvae introduced into pots as eggs and first-, second- and third-instar larvae to optimise artificial infestation techniques. The most important factor affecting larval establishment was the life stage introduced. Establishment of eggs and first instars was very low, with only 21% of eggs and 11% of first-instar larvae establishing. In contrast, 82% of second-instar larvae and 84% of third-instar larvae established successfully. The addition of shade marginally improved overall survival from 45% in the unshaded pots to 53% in the shaded pots. However, most of this increase was in the eggs and first instars. Irrigation did not improve survival. These results suggest that when introducing scarab larvae to field or pot experiments, second- or thirdinstar larvae should be used to maximise establishment. The provision of shade and supplementary irrigation is optional.

Association of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings with a rapid rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouse soils

A study was undertaken from 2004 to 2007 to investigate factors associated with decreased efficacy of metalaxyl to manage damping-off of cucumber in Oman. A survey over six growing seasons showed that growers lost up to 14.6% of seedlings following application of metalaxyl. No resistance to metalaxyl was found among Pythium isolates. Damping-off disease in the surveyed greenhouses followed two patterns. In most (69%) greenhouses, seedling mortality was found to occur shortly after transplanting and decrease thereafter (Phase-I). However, a second phase of seedling mortality (Phase-II) appeared 9-14 d after transplanting in about 31% of the surveyed greenhouses. Analysis of the rate of biodegradation of metalaxyl in six greenhouses indicated a significant increase in the rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouses, which encountered Phase-II damping-off. The half-life of metalaxyl dropped from 93 d in soil, which received no previous metalaxyl treatment to 14 d in soil, which received metalaxyl for eight consecutive seasons, indicating an enhanced rate of metalaxyl biodegradation after repeated use. Multiple applications of metalaxyl helped reduce the appearance of Phase-II damping-off. This appears to be the first report of rapid biodegradation of metalaxyl in greenhouse soils and the first report of its association with appearance of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings.

Effect of microwave radiation on seed mortality of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.)

A trial was undertaken to evaluate the effect of microwaves on seed mortality of three weed species. Seeds of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) were buried at six depths (0, 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 cm) in coarse sand maintained at one of two moisture levels, oven dry or wet (field capacity), and then subjected to one of five microwave radiation durations of (0, 2, 4, 8 and 16 min). Significant interactions between soil moisture level, microwave radiation duration, seed burial depth and species were detected for mortality of seeds of all three species. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine (88%), parthenium (67%) and bellyache bush (94%) occurred in wet soil irradiated for 16 min. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine and bellyache bush seeds occurred in seeds buried at 2.5 cm depth whereas that of parthenium occurred in seeds buried at 10 cm depth. Maximum soil temperatures of 114.1 and 87.5°C in dry and wet soil respectively occurred at 2.5 cm depth following 16 min irradiation. Irrespective of the greater soil temperatures recorded in dry soil, irradiating seeds in wet soil generally increased seed mortality 2.9-fold compared with dry soil. Moisture content of wet soil averaged 5.7% compared with 0.1% for dry soil. Results suggest that microwave radiation has the potential to kill seeds located in the soil seed bank. However, many factors, including weed species susceptibility, determine the effectiveness of microwave radiation on buried seeds. Microwave radiation may be an alternative to conventional methods at rapidly depleting soil seed banks in the field, particularly in relatively wet soils that contain long lived weed seeds.

Effect of soil burial depth and wetting on mortality of diapausing larvae and patterns of post-diapause adult emergence of sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae)

In south-eastern Queensland, Australia, sorghum planted in early spring usually escapes sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola, attack. Experiments were conducted to better understand the role of winter diapause in the population dynamics of this pest. Emergence patterns of adult midge from diapausing larvae on the soil surface and at various depths were investigated during spring to autumn of 1987/88–1989/90. From 1987/88 to 1989/90, 89%, 65% and 98% of adult emergence, respectively, occurred during November and December. Adult emergence from larvae diapausing on the soil surface was severely reduced due to high mortality attributed to surface soil temperatures in excess of 40°C, with much of this mortality occurring between mid-September and mid-October. Emergence of adults from the soil surface was considerably delayed in the 1988/89 season compared with larvae buried at 5 or 10 cm which had similar emergence patterns for all three seasons. In 1989/90, when a 1-cm-deep treatment was included, there was a 392% increase in adult emergence from this treatment compared with deeper treatments. Some diapausing larvae on the surface did not emerge at the end of summer in only 1 year (1989/90), when 28.0% of the larvae on the surface remained in diapause, whereas only 0.8% of the buried larvae remained in diapause. We conclude that the pattern of emergence explains why spring plantings of sorghum in south-eastern Queensland usually escape sorghum midge attack.

Abundance and mortality of overwintering pupae of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia

Surveys were conducted between 1997 and 2001 to investigate the incidence of overwintering Helicoverpa spp. pupae under summer crop residues on the Darling Downs, Queensland. Only Helicoverpa armigera was represented in collections of overwintering pupae. The results indicated that late-season crops of cotton, sorghum, maize, soybean, mungbean and sunflower were equally likely to have overwintering pupae under them. In the absence of tillage practices, these crops had the potential to produce similar numbers of moths/ha in the spring. There were expected differences between years in the densities of overwintering pupae and the number of emerged moths/ha. Irrigated crops produced 2.5 times more moths/ha than dryland crops. Overall survival from autumn-formed pupae to emerged moths averaged 44%, with a higher proportion of pupae under maize surviving to produce moths than each of the other crops. Parasitoids killed 44.1% of pupae, with Heteropelma scaposum representing 83.3% of all parasitoids reared from pupae. Percentage parasitism levels were lower in irrigated crops (27.6%) compared with dryland crops (40.5%). Recent changes to Helicoverpa spp. management in cotton/grain-farming systems in south-eastern Queensland, including widespread adoption of Bt cotton, and use of more effective and more selective insecticides, could lead to lower densities of overwintering pupae under late summer crops.

The mortality of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) neonate larvae in relation to drop-off and soil surface temperature: The dangers of bungy jumping

The first larval instar has been identified as a critical stage for population mortality in Lepidoptera, yet due to the body size of these larvae, the factors that contribute to mortality under field conditions are still not clear. Dispersal behaviour has been suggested as a significant, but ignored factor contributing to mortality in first-instar lepidopteran larvae. The impact that leaving the host plant has on the mortality rate of Helicoverpa armigera neonates was examined in field crops and laboratory trials. In this study the following are examined: (1) the effects of soil surface temperature, and the level of shade within the crop, on the mortality of neonates on the soil after dropping off from the host plant; (2) the percentage of neonates that dropped off from a host plant and landed on the soil; and (3) the effects of exposure to different soil surface temperatures on the development and mortality of neonates. The findings of this study showed that: (1) on the soil, surface temperatures above 43°C were lethal for neonates, and exposure to these temperatures contributed greatly to the overall mortality rate observed; however, the fate of neonates on the soil varied significantly depending on canopy closure within the crop; (2) at least 15% of neonates dropped off from the host plant and landed on the soil, meaning that the proportion of neonates exposed to these condition is not trivial; and (3) 30 min exposure to soil surface temperatures approaching the lethal level (>43°C) has no significant negative effects on the development and mortality of larvae through to the second instar. Overall leaving the plant through drop-off contributes to first-instar mortality in crops with open canopies; however, survival of neonates that have lost contact with a host plant is possible, and becomes more likely later in the crop growing season.