Intraseasonal oscillation of total precipitable water over North Indian Ocean and its application in the diagnostic study of coastal rainfall

TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) is reported to be a useful sensor to measure the atmospheric and oceanic parameters even in cloudy conditions. Vertically integrated specific humidity, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) retrieved from the water vapour absorption channel (22GHz.) along with 10m wind speed and rain rate derived from TMI is used to investigate the moisture variation over North Indian Ocean. Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISO) of TPW during the summer monsoon seasons 1998, 1999, and 2000 over North Indian Ocean is explored using wavelet analysis. The dominant waves in TPW during the monsoon periods and the differences in ISO over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are investigated. The northward propagation of TPW anomaly and its coherence with the coastal rainfall is also studied. For the diagnostic study of heavy rainfall spells over the west coast, the intrusion of TPW over the North Arabian Sea is seen to be a useful tool.

Regional climate model applications on sub-regional scales over the Indian monsoon region: The role of domain size on downscaling uncertainty

Regional climate models are becoming increasingly popular to provide high resolution climate change information for impacts assessments to inform adaptation options. Many countries and provinces requiring these assessments are as small as 200,000 km2 in size, significantly smaller than an ideal domain needed for successful applications of one-way nested regional climate models. Therefore assessments on sub-regional scales (e.g., river basins) are generally carried out using climate change simulations performed for relatively larger regions. Here we show that the seasonal mean hydrological cycle and the day-to-day precipitation variations of a sub-region within the model domain are sensitive to the domain size, even though the large scale circulation features over the region are largely insensitive. On seasonal timescales, the relatively smaller domains intensify the hydrological cycle by increasing the net transport of moisture into the study region and thereby enhancing the precipitation and local recycling of moisture. On daily timescales, the simulations run over smaller domains produce higher number of moderate precipitation days in the sub-region relative to the corresponding larger domain simulations. An assessment of daily variations of water vapor and the vertical velocity within the sub-region indicates that the smaller domains may favor more frequent moderate uplifting and subsequent precipitation in the region. The results remained largely insensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, indicating the robustness of the domain size influence on the regional model solutions. These domain size dependent precipitation characteristics have the potential to add one more level of uncertainty to the downscaled projections.

Two Independent Triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a Coupled GCM

The question of whether and how tropical Indian Ocean dipole or zonal mode (IOZM) interannual variability is independent of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Pacific is addressed in a comparison of twin 200-yr runs of a coupled climate model. The first is a reference simulation, and the second has ENSO-scale variability suppressed with a constraint on the tropical Pacific wind stress. The IOZM can exist in the model without ENSO, and the composite evolution of the main anomalies in the Indian Ocean in the two simulations is virtually identical. Its growth depends on a positive feedback between anomalous equatorial easterly winds, upwelling equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves reducing the thermocline depth and sea surface temperature off the coast of Sumatra, and the atmospheric dynamical response to the subsequently reduced convection. Two IOZM triggers in the boreal spring are found. The first is an anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, with an early northward penetration of the Southern Hemisphere southeasterly trades. This situation grows out of cooler sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean left behind by a reinforcement of the late austral summer winds. The second trigger is a consequence of a zonal shift in the center of convection associated with a developing El Nino, a Walker cell anomaly. The first trigger is the only one present in the constrained simulation and is similar to the evolution of anomalies in 1994, when the IOZM occurred in the absence of a Pacific El Nino state. The presence of these two triggers-the first independent of ENSO and the second phase locking the IOZM to El Nino-allows an understanding of both the existence of IOZM events when Pacific conditions are neutral and the significant correlation between the IOZM and El Nino.

Flow structure and variability in the subtropical Indian Ocean: Instability of the South Indian Ocean Countercurrent

The origin of the eddy variability around the 25°S band in the Indian Ocean is investigated. We have found that the surface circulation east of Madagascar shows an anticyclonic subgyre bounded to the south by eastward flow from southwest Madagascar, and to the north by the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC) between 15° and 20°S. The shallow, eastward flowing South Indian Ocean Countercurrent (SICC) extends above the deep reaching, westward flowing SEC to 95°E around the latitude of the high variability band. Applying a two-layer model reveals that regions of large vertical shear along the SICC-SEC system are baroclinically unstable. Estimates of the frequencies (3.5–6 times/year) and wavelengths (290–470 km) of the unstable modes are close to observations of the mesoscale variability derived from altimetry data. It is likely then that Rossby wave variability locally generated in the subtropical South Indian Ocean by baroclinic instability is the origin of the eddy variability around 25°S as seen, for example, in satellite altimetry.

A link between low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability around Madagascar and the large-scale Indian Ocean variability

A connection is shown to exist between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993–2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar exhibit a significant interannual oscillation. This is related to the arrival of large-scale anomalies that propagate westward along 10°–15°S in response to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Positive (negative) SSH anomalies associated to a positive (negative) IOD phase induce a shift in the intensity and position of the tropical and subtropical gyres. A weakening (strengthening) results in the intensity of the South Equatorial Current and its branches along east Madagascar. In addition, the flow through the narrows of the Mozambique Channel around 17°S increases (decreases) during periods of a stronger and northward (southward) extension of the subtropical (tropical) gyre. Interaction between the currents in the narrows and southward propagating eddies from the northern Channel leads to interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy of the central Channel in phase with the one in the SSH-field.

Increased n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids do not attenuate the effects of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids on insulin sensitivity or triacylglycerol reduction in Indian Asians

Background: Indian Asians in Western countries have a higher rate of coronary artery disease than do the indigenous white populations, and this higher rate may be influenced by a dietary imbalance of n-6 and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Objective: The objective of the study was to test the hypothesis that a high background dietary intake of n-6 PUFA attenuates the effects of fish-oil supplementation on insulin sensitivity and associated blood lipids of the metabolic syndrome. Design: Twenty-nine Indian Asian men were recruited to participate in a 12-wk dietary intervention trial. Volunteers were randomly assigned to receive either a moderate or a high n-6 PUFA diet featuring modified oils and spreads over a 6-wk period. After this 6-wk period, both groups were supplemented with 4.0 g fish oil/d (2.5 g eicosapentaenoic acid + docosahexaenoic acid) for an additional 6 wk in combination with the dietary treatment. Volunteers participated in a postprandial study and an insulin sensitivity test after the 6-wk dietary intervention and again after the fish-oil supplementation period. Results: There was no significant time X treatment interaction for blood lipids or insulin action after dietary intervention with the moderate or high n-6 PUFA diets in combination with fish oil. After the 6-wk period of fish oil supplementation, fasting and postprandial plasma triacylglycerol concentrations decreased significantly. Conclusion: The background dietary n-6 PUFA concentration did not modulate the effect of fish-oil supplementation on blood lipids or measures of insulin sensitivity in this ethnic group.

The impact of finer-resolution air-sea coupling on the intraseasonal oscillation of the Indian monsoon

The new HadKPP atmosphere–ocean coupled model is described and then used to determine the effects of sub-daily air–sea coupling and fine near-surface ocean vertical resolution on the representation of the Northern Hemisphere summer intra-seasonal oscillation. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to the K Profile Parameterization ocean-boundary-layer model. Four 30-member ensembles were performed that varied in oceanic vertical resolution between 1 m and 10 m and in coupling frequency between 3 h and 24 h. The 10 m, 24 h ensemble exhibited roughly 60% of the observed 30–50 day variability in sea-surface temperatures and rainfall and very weak northward propagation. Enhancing either only the vertical resolution or only the coupling frequency produced modest improvements in variability and only a standing intra-seasonal oscillation. Only the 1 m, 3 h configuration generated organized, northward-propagating convection similar to observations. Sub-daily surface forcing produced stronger upper-ocean temperature anomalies in quadrature with anomalous convection, which likely affected lower-atmospheric stability ahead of the convection, causing propagation. Well-resolved air–sea coupling did not improve the eastward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal oscillation in this model. Upper-ocean vertical mixing and diurnal variability in coupled models must be improved to accurately resolve and simulate tropical sub-seasonal variability. In HadKPP, the mere presence of air–sea coupling was not sufficient to generate an intra-seasonal oscillation resembling observations.

Changes to Indian Ocean subantarctic mode water in a coupled climate model as CO2 forcing increases

Subantarctic mode water (SAMW) has been shown to be a good indicator of anthropogenic climate change in coupled climate models. SAMW in a coupled climate model and the response of modeled SAMW to increasing CO2 are examined in detail. How SAMW adjusts from climatological values toward a new equilibrium in the coupled model, with different climatological temperature and salinity properties, is shown. The combined formation rate of SAMW and Antarctic intermediate water is calculated as approximately 18 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, slightly lower than climatological values would suggest. When forced with increasing CO2, SAMW is produced at a similar rate but at lower densities. This result suggests that the rate of heat uptake in this part of the ocean will be unchanged by anthropogenic forcing. The important signal in the response of SAMW is the shift to colder and fresher values on isopycnals that is believed to be related to changes in thermodynamic surface forcing. It is shown that, given uniform forcing, SAMW is expected to enhance the signal relative to other water masses. Independent increases in surface heating or freshwater forcing can produce changes similar to those observed, but the two different types of forcing are distinguishable using separate forcing experiments, hodographs, and passive anomaly tracers. The changes in SAMW forced by increasing CO2 are dominated by surface heating, but changes to freshwater fluxes are also important.

On the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and river flow in the Aral Sea basin

We study the contemporaneous relationship between the intensity of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and runoff in the major rivers of the Aral Sea basin (Amudarya, Syrdarya) and some of their subcatchments. To this end, we use All-India rainfall (AIR) data, CRU surface observations of precipitation and temperature, ERA40 atmospheric data, and natural discharge data corrected for human interference. We show that there is a highly significant positive correlation between ISM intensity and Amudarya runoff. This finding cannot be explained by the spill-over of ISM precipitation over the Hindu Kush into the Amudarya basin. Instead, we suggest that the observed co-variability is mediated by tropospheric temperature variations due to fluctuations in the ISM intensity. These variations are known to be due to Rossby-wave propagation in response to condensational heating during monsoon precipitation. We hypothesise that the corresponding anomalies in surface temperatures imply anomalies in meltwater formation.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.