Tools for testing the Solvency Capital Requirement for life insurance

Longevity risk is one of the major risks that an insurance company or a pension fund has to deal with and it is expected that its importance will grow in the near future. In agreement with these considerations, in Solvency II regulation the Standard formula furnished for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement explicitly considers this kind of risk. According to the new European rules in our paper we suggest a multiperiod approach to evaluate the SCR for longevity risk. We propose a backtesting framework for measuring the consistency of SCR calculations for life insurance policies.

MASCEM: electricity markets simulation with strategic agents

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving numerous entities trying to obtain the best advantages and profits while limited by power-network characteristics and constraints.1 The restructuring and consequent deregulation of electricity markets introduced a new economic dimension to the power industry. Some observers have criticized the restructuring process, however, because it has failed to improve market efficiency and has complicated the assurance of reliability and fairness of operations. To study and understand this type of market, we developed the Multiagent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets (MASCEM) platform based on multiagent simulation. The MASCEM multiagent model includes players with strategies for bid definition, acting in forward, day-ahead, and balancing markets and considering both simple and complex bids. Our goal with MASCEM was to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This approach makes MASCEM both a short- and mediumterm simulation as well as a tool to support long-term decisions, such as those taken by regulators. This article proposes a new methodology integrated in MASCEM for bid definition in electricity markets. This methodology uses reinforcement learning algorithms to let players perceive changes in the environment, thus helping them react to the dynamic environment and adapt their bids accordingly.

From antimicrobial agents to health promotion

A emergência de multiresistência apresentada por microrganismos é um dos grandes desafios que enfrentam actualmente os profissionais de Saúde e a população em geral. Os factores que contribuem para o desenvolvimento de resistência a antibióticos na comunidade podem ser categorizados como comportamentais ou ambientais/políticas. O objectivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar a situação actual na visão dos Pais de alunos do pré-escolar e 1º ciclo. De modo a avaliar as necessidades de intervenção e as actividades a serem desenvolvidas, um instrumento para estudar os hábitos e comportamentos adoptados na utilização de antibióticos, foi adaptado, validado e aplicado numa amostra piloto.

Seller, buyer and VPP agents behavior on a simulated electricity market

Competitive electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is an electricity market simulator able to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. As market players are complex entities, having their characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players, a multi-agent architecture is used and proved to be adequate. MASCEM players have learning capabilities and different risk preferences. They are able to refine their strategies according to their past experience (both real and simulated) and considering other agents��� behavior. Agents��� behavior is also subject to its risk preferences.

MV producers and consumers agents characterization with DSM techniques

This paper consist in the establishment of a Virtual Producer/Consumer Agent (VPCA) in order to optimize the integrated management of distributed energy resources and to improve and control Demand Side Management DSM) and its aggregated loads. The paper presents the VPCA architecture and the proposed function-based organization to be used in order to coordinate the several generation technologies, the different load types and storage systems. This VPCA organization uses a frame work based on data mining techniques to characterize the costumers. The paper includes results of several experimental tests cases, using real data and taking into account electricity generation resources as well as consumption data.

Self-managing agents for dynamic scheduling in manufacturing

The main purpose of this paper is to propose a Multi-Agent Autonomic and Bio-Inspired based framework with selfmanaging capabilities to solve complex scheduling problems using cooperative negotiation. Scheduling resolution requires the intervention of highly skilled human problem-solvers. This is a very hard and challenging domain because current systems are becoming more and more complex, distributed, interconnected and subject to rapidly changing. A natural Autonomic Computing (AC) evolution in relation to Current Computing is to provide systems with Self-Managing ability with a minimum human interference.

Os seguros na gestão de uma obra

Neste trabalho pretende-se evidenciar algumas práticas que podem e devem ser adotadas na direção de empreitadas, de modo a reduzir os riscos de uma obra através de uma gestão apropriada de seguros, acautelando, contudo, o equilíbrio entre o custo e respetivas coberturas. Os seguros de Construção, internacionalmente designados por “All risks” (todos os riscos de construção), são uma questão pouco explorada apesar da sua elevada importância para a atividade, pois os custos que possam decorrer de um sinistro poderão ter um impacto muito significativo para as empresas. Por vezes, estes seguros são encarados como mais um encargo e não como um mecanismo de gestão de Risco. Do conhecimento profundo que a empresa construtora detém sobre a particularidade da sua obra, esta procura todos os tipos de seguro que melhor se enquadram nas suas necessidades, que aliadas a pessoas especializadas na matéria, aconselham e gerem os seguros de obra, de maneira a que, em caso de ocorrência de um sinistro, não existam surpresas para o segurado. Por fim, é importante associar e entender a importância da relação que existe entre risco, interesse e seguro na gestão de uma obra.

Commercial agents portfolio optimization in electricity markets

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for power companies that operate in retail markets in order to enhance the management of its energy resources. During the last years there has been an increase of the renewable penetration into the micro-generation which begins to co-exist with the other existing power generation, giving rise to a new type of consumers. This paper develops a methodology to be applied to the management of the all the aggregators. The aggregator establishes bilateral contracts with its clients where the energy purchased and selling conditions are negotiated not only in terms of prices but also for other conditions that allow more flexibility in the way generation and consumption is addressed. The aggregator agent needs a tool to support the decision making in order to compose and select its customers' portfolio in an optimal way, for a given level of profitability and risk.

Nanofiltration of Cork Wastewaters and Their Possible Use in Leather Industry as Tanning Agents

Cork processing wastewater is a very complex mixture of vegetal extracts and has, among other natural compounds, a very high content of phenolic/tannic colloidal matter that is responsible for severe environmental problems. In the present work, the concentration of this wastewater by nanofiltration was investigated with the aim of producing a cork tannin concentrate to be utilized in tanning. Permeation results showed that the permeate fluxes are controlled by both osmotic pressure and fouling/gel layer phenomena, leading to a rapid decrease of permeate fluxes with the concentration factor. The rejection coefficients to organic matter were higher than 95%, indicating that nanofiltration has a very good ability to concentrate the tannins and produce a permeate stream depleted from organic matter. The cork tannin concentrate obtained by nanofiltration and evaporation had total solids concentration of 34.8 g/l. The skins tanned by this concentrate were effectively converted to leather with a shrinking temperature of 7 degrees C.

Molecular imaging agents for detection of β-amyloid plaques in Alzheimer’s disease

The formation of amyloid structures is a neuropathological feature that characterizes several neurodegenerative disorders, such as Alzheimer´s and Parkinson´s disease. Up to now, the definitive diagnosis of these diseases can only be accomplished by immunostaining of post mortem brain tissues with dyes such Thioflavin T and congo red. Aiming at early in vivo diagnosis of Alzheimer´s disease (AD), several amyloid-avid radioprobes have been developed for b-amyloid imaging by positron emission tomography (PET) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). The aim of this paper is to present a perspective of the available amyloid imaging agents, special those that have been selected for clinical trials and are at the different stages of the US Food and Drugs Administration (FDA) approval.

Xanthenedione derivatives, new promising antioxidant and acetylcholinesterase inhibitor agents

Natural and synthetic xanthone derivatives are well-known for their ability to act as antioxidants and/or enzyme inhibitors. This paper aims to present a successful synthetic methodology towards xanthenedione derivatives and the study of their aromatization to xanthones. Additionally their ability to reduce Fe(III), to scavenge DPPH radicals and to inhibit AChE was evaluated. The results demonstrated that xanthenedione derivative 5e, bearing a catechol unit, showed higher reduction capacity than BHT and similar to quercetin, strong DPPH scavenging activity (EC50 = 3.79 ± 0.06 μM) and it was also showed to be a potent AChEI (IC50 = 31.0 ± 0.09 μM) when compared to galantamine (IC50 = 211.8 ± 9.5 μM).

Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Aspectos a considerar para a avaliação de riscos no caso da aplicação do óleo descofrante

Mestrado em Higiene e Segurança no Trabalho.

Characterization of cleaners accidents in the Portuguese service sector

This paper characterizes work accidents at Portuguese industrial cleaning companies, operating in the service sector, through the application of ESAW methodology. Data was codified based on the analysis of 748 accident claims to insurance companies (number of days lost 1 working day) in 3 large industrial cleaning companies for the period 2001-2003. Slipping and falling in the same level was the main deviation from the normal working process in the moment of the accident (in 25% of the accidents); uncoordinated movements was the second cause of accidents (14%); falls of persons to a lower level was the third cause of accidents (~10%), including falls from stairs (~7%) and falls from ladders and mobile ladders (~2%); globally, body movement under or with physical stress, including lifting, carrying, putting down, bending down, twisting, turning, trading badly, twisting leg or ankle and slipping without falling, were the cause in 17% of the accidents. Lower limbs were injured in ~25% of the accidents, hand and fingers in ~14%, the eye in ~4% and the back in ~9% of the accidents. An incidence rate of 3,580 accidents/100,000 employees was found to the sector (2003 data).

Genotoxic assessment in different exposure groups working with antineoplastic agents

Antioneoplastic drugs are widely used in treatment of cancer, and several studies suggest acute and long-term effects associated to antineoplastic drug exposures, namely associating workplace exposure with health effects. Cytokinesis blocked micronucleus (CBMN) assay is one promising short-term genotoxicity assays for human risk assessment and their combination is recommended to monitor populations chronically exposed to genotoxic agents. The aim of this investigation is the genotoxicity assessment in different professionals that handle cytostatics drugs. This research is case-control blinded study constituted by 46 non-exposed subjects and 44 workers that handle antineoplastic drugs, such as pharmacists, pharmacy technicians, and nurses. It was found statistically significant increases in the genotoxicity biomarkers in exposed comparising with controls (p<0.05). The findings address the need for regular biomonitoring of personnel occupationally exposed to these drugs, confirming to an enhanced health risk assessment.