The impact of nonlinear exposure risk relationships on seasonal time series data: modelling danish neonatal birth anthropometric data

Background Birth weight and length have seasonal fluctuations. Previous analyses of birth weight by latitude effects identified seemingly contradictory results, showing both 6 and 12 monthly periodicities in weight. The aims of this paper are twofold: (a) to explore seasonal patterns in a large, Danish Medical Birth Register, and (b) to explore models based on seasonal exposures and a non-linear exposure-risk relationship. Methods Birth weight and birth lengths on over 1.5 million Danish singleton, live births were examined for seasonality. We modelled seasonal patterns based on linear, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships. We then added an extra layer of complexity by modelling weighted population-based exposure patterns. Results The Danish data showed clear seasonal fluctuations for both birth weight and birth length. A bimodal model best fits the data, however the amplitude of the 6 and 12 month peaks changed over time. In the modelling exercises, U- and J-shaped exposure-risk relationships generate time series with both 6 and 12 month periodicities. Changing the weightings of the population exposure risks result in unexpected properties. A J-shaped exposure-risk relationship with a diminishing population exposure over time fitted the observed seasonal pattern in the Danish birth weight data. Conclusion In keeping with many other studies, Danish birth anthropometric data show complex and shifting seasonal patterns. We speculate that annual periodicities with non-linear exposure-risk models may underlie these findings. Understanding the nature of seasonal fluctuations can help generate candidate exposures.

Car ownership, mileage, and risky driving among young intermediate drivers

Introduction: Young drivers are at greatest risk of injury or death from a car crash in the first six months of independent driving. In Queensland, the graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was extensively modified in July 2007 and aims to minimise this risk. Increased mileage and car ownership have been found to play a role in risky driving, offences and crashes; however GDL programs typically do not consider these variables. The paper explores the mileage and car ownership characteristics of young newly-licensed intermediate (Provisional) drivers and their relation to risky driving, crashes and offences. Methods: Drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years recruited from across Queensland for longitudinal research completed Survey 1 exploring pre-licence and Learner experiences and sociodemographic characteristics. Survey 2 explored the same variables with a subset of these drivers (n = 341) after they had completed their first six months of independent driving. Results: At Survey 2, most young drivers owned their vehicle. Novices who drove more kilometres and who spent more hours each week driving were more likely to report risky driving. These drivers were also more likely to report being detected by Police for a driving-related offence. Conclusions: GDL programs should incorporate education for the parent and novice driver regarding the increased risks associated with increased driving exposure, particularly where the novices own their vehicle. Parents should be encouraged to delay exclusive access to a vehicle for the novice driver.

Mileage, car ownership, experience of punishment avoidance and the risky driving of young drivers

Objective: Young drivers are at greatest risk of injury or death from a car crash in the first six months of independent driving. In Queensland, the graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was extensively modified in July 2007 in order to reduce this risk. Increased mileage and car ownership have been found to play a role in risky driving, offences and crashes; however GDL programs typically do not consider these variables. In addition, young novice drivers’ experiences of punishment avoidance have not previously been examined. The paper explores the mileage (duration and distance), car ownership and punishment avoidance behaviour of young newly-licensed intermediate (Provisional) drivers and their relationship with risky driving, crashes and offences. Methods: Drivers (n = 1032) aged 17-19 years recruited from across Queensland for longitudinal research completed Survey 1 exploring pre-licence and Learner experiences and sociodemographic characteristics. Survey 2 explored the same variables with a subset of these drivers (n = 341) after they had completed their first six months of independent driving. Results: Most young drivers in Survey 2 reported owning a vehicle and paying attention to Police presence. Drivers who had their own car reported significantly greater mileage and more risky driving. Novices who drove more kilometres, spent more hours each week driving, or avoided actual and anticipated Police presence were more likely to report risky driving. These drivers were also more likely to report being detected by Police for a driving-related offence. The media, parents, friends and other drivers play a pivotal role in informing novices of on-road Police enforcement operations. Conclusions: GDL programs should incorporate education for the parent and novice driver regarding the increased risks associated with greater driving particularly where the novices own a vehicle. Parents should be encouraged to delay exclusive access to a vehicle for the novice driver. Parents should also consider whether their young novice will deliberately avoid Police if they tell them their location. This may reinforce not only the risky behaviour but also the young novice’s beliefs that their parents condone this behaviour.

Making the case for low cost railway level crossings

This paper discusses the challenges of making a case for the adoption of low cost railway level crossings in Australia. Several issues are discussed in this paper including legal issues associated with the treatment of low-exposure passive crossings with low cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs); principles of operation and deployment for LCLCWDs; and technical and human factors aspects of safety and availability. The Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Rail Innovation’s affordable level crossings project aims to address a number of these technical and human factors issues through research and field trials.

Older drivers’ insight into their hazard perception ability

Even though the driving ability of older adults may decline with age, there is evidence that some individuals attempt to compensate for these declines using strategies such as restricting their driving exposure. Such compensatory mechanisms rely on drivers’ ability to evaluate their own driving performance. This paper focuses on one key aspect of driver ability that is associated with crash risk and has been found to decline with age: hazard perception. Three hundred and seven drivers, aged 65 to 96, completed a validated video-based hazard perception test. There was no significant relationship between hazard perception test response latencies and drivers’ ratings of their hazard perception test performance, suggesting that their ability to assess their own test performance was poor. Also, age related declines in hazard perception latency were not reflected in drivers’ self-ratings. Nonetheless, ratings of test performance were associated with self-reported regulation of driving, as was self-rated driving ability. These findings are consistent with the proposal that, while self-assessments of driving ability may be used by drivers to determine the degree to which they restrict their driving, the problem is that drivers have little insight into their own driving ability. This may impact on the potential road safety benefits of self-restriction of driving because drivers may not have the information needed to optimally self-restrict. Strategies for addressing this problem are discussed.

Peer passenger identity and passenger pressure on young drivers' speeding intentions

Young drivers, aged 17 to 24 years, have the highest fatality rate in Australia. It is believed that part of this risk is due to pressure from peer passengers to engage in speeding; which may be active (i.e., verbal encouragement) or passive (i.e., perceived pressure on the part of the driver). The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was used to investigate this impact of peer passengers on young drivers, particularly the influence of the type of peer pressure and a driver’s level of identification with their passengers. A scenario-based questionnaire was constructed, informed by focus groups and pilot studies, and distributed to university students (N = 398). The questionnaire measured participants’ intentions and the TPB constructs, including two components of perceived behaviour control, within a baseline scenario as well as an experimental scenario in which the variables of type of pressure and identification were manipulated. Consistent with the hypotheses, the study found that attitudes and self-efficacy significantly predicted intentions over and above the variance explained by the sociodemographic variables of age, gender, self-esteem, sensation seeking, as well as past behaviour and exposure. Across the scenarios, attitudes explained between 4.3% and 14.5%, while self-efficacy to refrain from speeding explained between 4.9% and 17.1%, of the unique variance in intentions to speed. However, contrary to expectations, intentions to speed were found to be higher in the “no passenger” than “passenger present” conditions, although this finding is not completely inconsistent with recent literature. A high level of identification with passengers led to higher intentions to speed than low identification as expected, but, inconsistent with expectations, different types of pressure (i.e., active versus passive) did not influence intentions to speed.

Safety enhancement of operator protection systems on self-propelled mining equipment

In the long term, with development of skill, knowledge, exposure and confidence within the engineering profession, rigorous analysis techniques have the potential to become a reliable and far more comprehensive method for design and verification of the structural adequacy of OPS, write Nimal J Perera, David P Thambiratnam and Brian Clark. This paper explores the potential to enhance operator safety of self-propelled mechanical plant subjected to roll over and impact of falling objects using the non-linear and dynamic response simulation capabilities of analytical processes to supplement quasi-static testing methods prescribed in International and Australian Codes of Practice for bolt on Operator Protection Systems (OPS) that are post fitted. The paper is based on research work carried out by the authors at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) over a period of three years by instrumentation of prototype tests, scale model tests in the laboratory and rigorous analysis using validated Finite Element (FE) Models. The FE codes used were ABAQUS for implicit analysis and LSDYNA for explicit analysis. The rigorous analysis and dynamic simulation technique described in the paper can be used to investigate the structural response due to accident scenarios such as multiple roll over, impact of multiple objects and combinations of such events and thereby enhance the safety and performance of Roll Over and Falling Object Protection Systems (ROPS and FOPS). The analytical techniques are based on sound engineering principles and well established practice for investigation of dynamic impact on all self propelled vehicles. They are used for many other similar applications where experimental techniques are not feasible.

A review of commuter exposure to ultrafine particles and its health effects

Ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) are produced in large quantities by vehicular combustion and are implicated in causing several adverse human health effects. Recent work has suggested that a large proportion of daily UFP exposure may occur during commuting. However, the determinants, variability and transport mode-dependence of such exposure are not well-understood. The aim of this review was to address these knowledge gaps by distilling the results of ‘in-transit’ UFP exposure studies performed to-date, including studies of health effects. We identified 47 exposure studies performed across 6 transport modes: automobile, bicycle, bus, ferry, rail and walking. These encompassed approximately 3000 individual trips where UFP concentrations were measured. After weighting mean UFP concentrations by the number of trips in which they were collected, we found overall mean UFP concentrations of 3.4, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9 and 5.7 × 10^4 particles cm^-3 for the bicycle, bus, automobile, rail, walking and ferry modes, respectively. The mean concentration inside automobiles travelling through tunnels was 3.0 × 10^5 particles cm^-3. While the mean concentrations were indicative of general trends, we found that the determinants of exposure (meteorology, traffic parameters, route, fuel type, exhaust treatment technologies, cabin ventilation, filtration, deposition, UFP penetration) exhibited marked variability and mode-dependence, such that it is not necessarily appropriate to rank modes in order of exposure without detailed consideration of these factors. Ten in-transit health effects studies have been conducted and their results indicate that UFP exposure during commuting can elicit acute effects in both healthy and health-compromised individuals. We suggest that future work should focus on further defining the contribution of in-transit UFP exposure to total UFP exposure, exploring its specific health effects and investigating exposures in the developing world. Keywords: air pollution; transport modes; acute health effects; travel; public transport

An investigation of commuter exposure to ultrafine particles in Sydney

Commuting in various transport modes represents an activity likely to incur significant exposure to traffic emissions. This study investigated the determinants and characteristics of exposure to ultrafine (< 100 nm) particles (UFPs) in four transport modes in Sydney, with a specific focus on exposure in automobiles, which remain the transport mode of choice for approximately 70% of Sydney commuters. UFP concentrations were measured using a portable condensation particle counter (CPC) inside five automobiles commuting on above ground and tunnel roadways, and in buses, ferries and trains. Determinant factors investigated included wind speed, cabin ventilation (automobiles only) and traffic volume. The results showed that concentrations varied significantly as a consequence of transport mode, vehicle type and ventilation characteristics. The effects of wind speed were minimal relative to those of traffic volume (especially heavy diesel vehicles) and cabin ventilation, with the latter proving to be a strong determinant of UFP ingress into automobiles. The effect of ~70 minutes of commuting on total daily exposure was estimated using a range of UFP concentrations reported for several microenvironments. A hypothetical Sydney resident commuting by automobile and spending 8.5 minutes of their day in the M5 East tunnel could incur anywhere from a lower limit of 3-11% to an upper limit of 37-69% of daily UFP exposure during a return commute, depending on the concentrations they encountered in other microenvironments, the type of vehicle they used and the ventilation setting selected. However, commute-time exposures at either extreme of the values presented are unlikely to occur in practice. The range of exposures estimated for other transport modes were comparable to those of automobiles, and in the case of buses, higher than automobiles.

Vacuum cleaner emissions as a source of indoor exposure to airborne particles and bacteria

Vacuuming can be a source of indoor exposure to biological and non-biological aerosols, although there is little data that describes the magnitude of emissions from the vacuum cleaner itself. We therefore sought to quantify emission rates of particles and bacteria from a large group of vacuum cleaners and investigate their potential determinants, including temperature, dust bags, exhaust filters, price and age. Emissions of particles between 0.009 and 20 µm and bacteria were measured from 21 vacuums. Ultrafine (<100 nm) particle emission rates ranged from 4.0 × 10^6 to 1.1 × 10^11 particles min-1. Emission of 0.54 to 20 µm particles ranged from 4.0 × 10^4 to 1.2 × 10^9 particles min-1. PM2.5 emissions were between 2.4 × 10-1 and 5.4 × 10^3 µg min-1. Bacteria emissions ranged from 0 to 7.4 × 10^5 bacteria min-1 and were poorly correlated with dust bag bacteria content and particle emissions. Large variability in emission of all parameters was observed across the 21 vacuums we assessed, which was largely not attributable to the range of determinant factors we assessed. Vacuum cleaner emissions contribute to indoor exposure to non-biological and biological aerosols when vacuuming, and this may vary markedly depending on the vacuum used.

On the relationships between self-reported bicycling injuries and perceived risk among cyclists in Queensland, Australia

The focus of governments on increasing active travel has motivated renewed interest in cycling safety. Bicyclists are up to 20 times more likely to be involved in serious injury crashes than drivers so understanding the relationship among factors in bicyclist crash risk is critically important for identifying effective policy tools, for informing bicycle infrastructure investments, and for identifying high risk bicycling contexts. This study aims to better understand the complex relationships between bicyclist self reported injuries resulting from crashes (e.g. hitting a car) and non-crashes (e.g. spraining an ankle) and perceived risk of cycling as a function of cyclist exposure, rider conspicuity, riding environment, rider risk aversion, and rider ability. Self reported data from 2,500 Queensland cyclists are used to estimate a series of seemingly unrelated regressions to examine the relationships among factors. The major findings suggest that perceived risk does not appear to influence injury rates, nor do injury rates influence perceived risks of cycling. Riders who perceive cycling as risky tend not to be commuters, do not engage in group riding, tend to always wear mandatory helmets and front lights, and lower their perception of risk by increasing days per week of riding and by increasing riding proportion on bicycle paths. Riders who always wear helmets have lower crash injury risk. Increasing the number of days per week riding tends to decrease both crash injury and non crash injury risk (e.g. a sprain). Further work is needed to replicate some of the findings in this study.

A comparison of the psychological, social, and legal factors contributing to speeding and drink driving behaviour

Within Australia, motor vehicle injury is the leading cause of hospital admissions and fatalities. Road crash data reveals that among the factors contributing to crashes in Queensland, speed and alcohol continue to be overrepresented. While alcohol is the number one contributing factor to fatal crashes, speeding also contributes to a high proportion of crashes. Research indicates that risky driving is an important contributor to road crashes. However, it has been debated whether all risky driving behaviours are similar enough to be explained by the same combination of factors. Further, road safety authorities have traditionally relied upon deterrence based countermeasures to reduce the incidence of illegal driving behaviours such as speeding and drink driving. However, more recent research has focussed on social factors to explain illegal driving behaviours. The purpose of this research was to examine and compare the psychological, legal, and social factors contributing to two illegal driving behaviours: exceeding the posted speed limit and driving when over the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) for the drivers licence type. Complementary theoretical perspectives were chosen to comprehensively examine these two behaviours including Akers’ social learning theory, Stafford and Warr’s expanded deterrence theory, and personality perspectives encompassing alcohol misuse, sensation seeking, and Type-A behaviour pattern. The program of research consisted of two phases: a preliminary pilot study, and the main quantitative phase. The preliminary pilot study was undertaken to inform the development of the quantitative study and to ensure the clarity of the theoretical constructs operationalised in this research. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 Queensland drivers recruited from Queensland Transport Licensing Centres and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). These interviews demonstrated that the majority of participants had engaged in at least one of the behaviours, or knew of someone who had. It was also found among these drivers that the social environment in which both behaviours operated, including family and friends, and the social rewards and punishments associated with the behaviours, are important in their decision making. The main quantitative phase of the research involved a cross-sectional survey of 547 Queensland licensed drivers. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between speeding and drink driving and whether there were any similarities or differences in the factors that contribute to a driver’s decision to engage in one or the other. A comparison of the participants self-reported speeding and self-reported drink driving behaviour demonstrated that there was a weak positive association between these two behaviours. Further, participants reported engaging in more frequent speeding at both low (i.e., up to 10 kilometres per hour) and high (i.e., 10 kilometres per hour or more) levels, than engaging in drink driving behaviour. It was noted that those who indicated they drove when they may be over the legal limit for their licence type, more frequently exceeded the posted speed limit by 10 kilometres per hour or more than those who complied with the regulatory limits for drink driving. A series of regression analyses were conducted to investigate the factors that predict self-reported speeding, self-reported drink driving, and the preparedness to engage in both behaviours. In relation to self-reported speeding (n = 465), it was found that among the sociodemographic and person-related factors, younger drivers and those who score high on measures of sensation seeking were more likely to report exceeding the posted speed limit. In addition, among the legal and psychosocial factors it was observed that direct exposure to punishment (i.e., being detected by police), direct punishment avoidance (i.e., engaging in an illegal driving behaviour and not being detected by police), personal definitions (i.e., personal orientation or attitudes toward the behaviour), both the normative and behavioural dimensions of differential association (i.e., refers to both the orientation or attitude of their friends and family, as well as the behaviour of these individuals), and anticipated punishments were significant predictors of self-reported speeding. It was interesting to note that associating with significant others who held unfavourable definitions towards speeding (the normative dimension of differential association) and anticipating punishments from others were both significant predictors of a reduction in self-reported speeding. In relation to self-reported drink driving (n = 462), a logistic regression analysis indicated that there were a number of significant predictors which increased the likelihood of whether participants had driven in the last six months when they thought they may have been over the legal alcohol limit. These included: experiences of direct punishment avoidance; having a family member convicted of drink driving; higher levels of Type-A behaviour pattern; greater alcohol misuse (as measured by the AUDIT); and the normative dimension of differential association (i.e., associating with others who held favourable attitudes to drink driving). A final logistic regression analysis examined the predictors of whether the participants reported engaging in both drink driving and speeding versus those who reported engaging in only speeding (the more common of the two behaviours) (n = 465). It was found that experiences of punishment avoidance for speeding decreased the likelihood of engaging in both speeding and drink driving; whereas in the case of drink driving, direct punishment avoidance increased the likelihood of engaging in both behaviours. It was also noted that holding favourable personal definitions toward speeding and drink driving, as well as higher levels of on Type-A behaviour pattern, and greater alcohol misuse significantly increased the likelihood of engaging in both speeding and drink driving. This research has demonstrated that the compliance with the regulatory limits was much higher for drink driving than it was for speeding. It is acknowledged that while speed limits are a fundamental component of speed management practices in Australia, the countermeasures applied to both speeding and drink driving do not appear to elicit the same level of compliance across the driving population. Further, the findings suggest that while the principles underpinning the current regime of deterrence based countermeasures are sound, current enforcement practices are insufficient to force compliance among the driving population, particularly in the case of speeding. Future research should further examine the degree of overlap between speeding and drink driving behaviour and whether punishment avoidance experiences for a specific illegal driving behaviour serve to undermine the deterrent effect of countermeasures aimed at reducing the incidence of another illegal driving behaviour. Furthermore, future work should seek to understand the factors which predict engaging in speeding and drink driving behaviours at the same time. Speeding has shown itself to be a pervasive and persistent behaviour, hence it would be useful to examine why road safety authorities have been successful in convincing the majority of drivers of the dangers of drink driving, but not those associated with speeding. In conclusion, the challenge for road safety practitioners will be to convince drivers that speeding and drink driving are equally risky behaviours, with the ultimate goal to reduce the prevalence of both behaviours.