Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach

Precipitation over western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the 21st century. These changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large-scale circulation, e.g., jet stream, cyclone activity, and blocking frequencies. A novel weather typing within the sector (30°W–10°E, 25–70°N) is used for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes. A k-means clustering on daily mean sea level pressure was undertaken for ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2014). Eight weather types are identified: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1, and B2 (blocking-like types). Their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large-scale precipitation-driving mechanisms. Simulations with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for recent climate conditions show biases in reproducing the observed seasonality of weather types. In particular, an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow is identified. Considering projections following the (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP8.5 scenario over 2071–2100, the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2, and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (−3%). These changes explain most of the precipitation projections over WE. However, a weather type-independent background signal is identified (increase/decrease in precipitation over northern/southern WE), suggesting modifications in precipitation-generating processes and/or model inability to accurately simulate these processes. Despite these caveats in the precipitation scenarios for WE, which must be duly taken into account, our approach permits a better understanding of the projected trends for precipitation over WE.

Forebrain projections to brainstem nuclei involved in the control of mandibular movements in rats

Mandibular movements occur through the triggering of trigeminal motoneurons. Aberrant movements by orofacial muscles are characteristic of orofacial motor disorders, such as nocturnal bruxism (clenching or grinding of the dentition during sleep). Previous studies have suggested that autonomic changes occur during bruxism episodes. Although it is known that emotional responses increase jaw movement, the brain pathways linking forebrain limbic nuclei and the trigeminal motor nucleus remain unclear. Here we show that neurons in the lateral hypothalamic area, in the central nucleus of the amygdala, and in the parasubthalamic nucleus, project to the trigeminal motor nucleus or to reticular regions around the motor nucleus (Regio h) and in the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus. We observed orexin co-expression in neurons projecting from the lateral hypothalamic area to the trigeminal motor nucleus. In the central nucleus of the amygdala, neurons projecting to the trigeminal motor nucleus are innervated by corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. We also observed that the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus receives dense innervation from orexin and corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. Therefore, forebrain nuclei related to autonomic control and stress responses might influence the activity of trigeminal motor neurons and consequently play a role in the physiopathology of nocturnal bruxism.

Melanin-concentrating hormone projections to areas involved in somatomotor responses

The lateral hypothalamic area (LHA) participates in the integration of sensory information and somatomotor responses associated with hunger and thirst. Although the LHA is neurochemically heterogeneous, a particularly high number of cells express melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH), which has been reported to play a role in energy homeostasis. Treatment with MCH increases food intake, and MCH mRNA is overexpressed in leptin-deficient (ob/ob) mice. Mice lacking both MCH and leptin present reduced body fat, mainly due to increased resting energy expenditure and locomotor activity. Dense MCH innervation of the cerebral motor cortex (MCx) and the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPT), both related to motor function, has been reported. Therefore, we postulated that a specific group of MCH neurons project to these areas. To investigate our hypothesis, we injected retrograde tracers into the MCx and the PPT of rats, combined with immunohistochemistry. We found that 25% of the LHA neurons projecting to the PPT were immunoreactive for MCH, and that 75% of the LHA neurons projecting to the MCx also contained MCH. Few MCH neurons were found to send collaterals to both areas. We also found that 15% of the incerto-hypothalamic neurons projecting to the PPT expressed MCH immunoreactivity. Those neurons preferentially innervated the rostral PPT. In addition, we observed that the MCH neurons express glutamic acid decarboxylase mRNA, a gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) synthesizing enzyme. We postulate that MCH/GABA neurons are involved in the inhibitory modulation of the innervated areas, decreasing motor activity in states of negative energy balance. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Organization of ventral tegmental area projections to the ventral tegmental area-nigral complex in the rat

The ventral tegmental area (VTA) is a nodal link in reward circuitry. Based on its striatal output, it has been subdivided in a caudomedial part which targets the ventromedial striatum, and a lateral part which targets the ventrolateral striatum [Ikemoto S (2007) Dopamine reward circuitry: two projection systems from the ventral midbrain to the nucleus accumbens-olfactory tubercle complex. Brain Res Rev 56:27-78]. Whether these two VTA parts are interconnected and to what extent the VTA innervates the substantia nigra compacta (SNc) and retrorubral nucleus (RR) are critical issues for understanding information processing in the basal ganglia. Here, VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex were examined in rats, using Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin (PHA-L) as anterograde tracer. The results show that the dorsolateral VTA projects to itself, as well as to the dorsal tier of the SNc and RR, largely avoiding the caudomedial VTA. The ventrolateral VTA innervates mainly the interfascicular nucleus. The components of the caudomedial VTA (the interfascicular, paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) are connected with each other. In addition, the caudomedial VTA (especially the paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) innervates the lateral VTA, and, to a lesser degree, the SNc and RR. The caudal pole of the VTA sends robust, bilateral projections to virtually all the VTA-nigral complex, which terminate in the dorsal and ventral tiers. Modest inputs from the medial supramammillary nucleus to ventromedial parts of the VTA-nigral complex were also identified. In double-immunostained sections, PHA-L-labeled varicosities were sometimes found apposed to tyrosine hydroxylase-positive neurons in the ventral mesencephalon. Overall, the results underscore that VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex are substantial and topically organized. In general, these projections, like the spiralated striato-nigro-striatal loops, display a medial-to-lateral organization. This anatomical arrangement conceivably permits the ventromedial striatum to influence the activity of the lateral striatum. The caudal pole of the VTA appears to be a critical site for a global recruitment of the mesotelencephalic system. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Exploring Multidimensional Data with 3D Projections

Visualization of high-dimensional data requires a mapping to a visual space. Whenever the goal is to preserve similarity relations a frequent strategy is to use 2D projections, which afford intuitive interactive exploration, e. g., by users locating and selecting groups and gradually drilling down to individual objects. In this paper, we propose a framework for projecting high-dimensional data to 3D visual spaces, based on a generalization of the Least-Square Projection (LSP). We compare projections to 2D and 3D visual spaces both quantitatively and through a user study considering certain exploration tasks. The quantitative analysis confirms that 3D projections outperform 2D projections in terms of precision. The user study indicates that certain tasks can be more reliably and confidently answered with 3D projections. Nonetheless, as 3D projections are displayed on 2D screens, interaction is more difficult. Therefore, we incorporate suitable interaction functionalities into a framework that supports 3D transformations, predefined optimal 2D views, coordinated 2D and 3D views, and hierarchical 3D cluster definition and exploration. For visually encoding data clusters in a 3D setup, we employ color coding of projected data points as well as four types of surface renderings. A second user study evaluates the suitability of these visual encodings. Several examples illustrate the framework`s applicability for both visual exploration of multidimensional abstract (non-spatial) data as well as the feature space of multi-variate spatial data.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Projections Onto Convex Sets through Particle Swarm Optimization and its application for remote sensing image restoration

Image restoration attempts to enhance images corrupted by noise and blurring effects. Iterative approaches can better control the restoration algorithm in order to find a compromise of restoring high details in smoothed regions without increasing the noise. Techniques based on Projections Onto Convex Sets (POCS) have been extensively used in the context of image restoration by projecting the solution onto hyperspaces until some convergence criteria be reached. It is expected that an enhanced image can be obtained at the final of an unknown number of projections. The number of convex sets and its combinations allow designing several image restoration algorithms based on POCS. Here, we address two convex sets: Row-Action Projections (RAP) and Limited Amplitude (LA). Although RAP and LA have already been used in image restoration domain, the former has a relaxation parameter (A) that strongly depends on the characteristics of the image that will be restored, i.e., wrong values of A can lead to poorly restoration results. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PS0)-POCS image restoration algorithm, in which the A value is obtained by PSO to be further used to restore images by POCS approach. Results showed that the proposed PSO-based restoration algorithm outperformed the widely used Wiener and Richardson-Lucy image restoration algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Zona Incerta no sagüi (Callithrix jacchus): Análise Citoarquitetônica, Neuroquímica e Projeção Retiniana

The retinal projections in mammals usually reach, classically, three major functional systems: the primary visual system, the accessory optic system, and the circadian timing system. But the retinal projections also reach areas classically considered non-visual, one of which groups the neurons of the zona incerta (ZI), target this study. The primary visual system includes thalamic lateral geniculate complex is formed by the dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus, intergeniculate leaflet and the ventral lateral geniculate nucleus and other Components. The accessory optic system is composed of the small nuclei: nuclei terminal dorsal, lateral, medial and the interstitial nucleus of the superior posterior fasciculus. These nuclei are involved in visuo-motor activities. The circadian timing system is comprised of the suprachiasmatic nucleus of the hypothalamus, that act as master circadian pacemaker, entraining pathways and efferents pathways to the efectors, and the intergeniculate leaflet, that seems to act as a modulator of the pacemaker. The retinal projections too reach classically considered non-visual areas, including the zona incerta. This region is localized in the ventral thalamus and has been implicated in various functional properties including nociceptive and somatosensory processing, motor response, sociosexual behaviour, feeding and drinking, in symptoms of neurodegenerative diseases, arousal and attention. It also displays connection with several areas of central nervous system. The aim of this study was characterize the retinal projection in the zona incerta of Callithrix jacchus (sagüi), a primate of the New World through the anterograde axonal transport of the cholera toxin subunit b and analyze the citoarchicteture using Nissl and NeuN, and neurochemical substances such as serotonin, GABA, VIP, VP, GFAP and binding-calcium proteins. The zona incerta showed a different division of the literature in citoarquitetura, both by means of Nissl as neurochemical by NeuN, with a subdivision ventrolateral and dorsomedial. The neurochemical to the other substances corroborate with this subdivision. The GFAP was almost completely negative for the zona incerta, result non evidenced in previous studies yet. The 16 retinal projection in sagüi, unlike other primates and rodents, reached the caudal portion only. This work helps to make further studies are conducted based on this subdivision and the localization of the neurochemical substances associated with possible behaviors that the zona incerta is involved