Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Application of neural network to hybrid systems with binary inputs

Boolean input systems are in common used in the electric industry. Power supplies include such systems and the power converter represents these. For instance, in power electronics, the control variable are the switching ON and OFF of components as thyristors or transistors. The purpose of this paper is to use neural network (NN) to control continuous systems with Boolean inputs. This method is based on classification of system variations associated with input configurations. The classical supervised backpropagation algorithm is used to train the networks. The training of the artificial neural network and the control of Boolean input systems are presented. The design procedure of control systems is implemented on a nonlinear system. We apply those results to control an electrical system composed of an induction machine and its power converter.

The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM

This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.

Safety and quality and stage of distribution

Let 0 denote the level of quality inherent in a food product that is delivered to some terminal market. In this paper, I characterize allocations over 0 and provide an economic rationale for regulating safety and quality standards in the food system. Zusman and Bockstael investigate the theoretical foundations for imposing standards and stress the importance of providing a tractable conceptual foundation. Despite a wealth of contributions that are mainly empirical (for reviews of these works see, respectively, Caswell and Antle), there have been relatively few attempts to model formally the linkages between farm and food markets when food quality and consumer safety are at issue. Here, I attempt to provide such a framework, building on key contributions in the theoretical literature and linking them in a simple model of quality determination in a vertically related marketing channel. The food-marketing model is due to Gardner. Spence provides a foundation for Pareto-improving intervention in a deterministic model of quality provision, and Leland, building on the classic paper by Akerlof, investigates licensing and minimum standards when the information structure is incomplete. Linking these ideas in a satisfactory model of the food markets is the main objective of the paper.

A comparative study of satellite and ground-based phenology

Long time series of ground-based plant phenology, as well as more than two decades of satellite-derived phenological metrics, are currently available to assess the impacts of climate variability and trends on terrestrial vegetation. Traditional plant phenology provides very accurate information on individual plant species, but with limited spatial coverage. Satellite phenology allows monitoring of terrestrial vegetation on a global scale and provides an integrative view at the landscape level. Linking the strengths of both methodologies has high potential value for climate impact studies. We compared a multispecies index from ground-observed spring phases with two types (maximum slope and threshold approach) of satellite-derived start-of-season (SOS) metrics. We focus on Switzerland from 1982 to 2001 and show that temporal and spatial variability of the multispecies index correspond well with the satellite-derived metrics. All phenological metrics correlate with temperature anomalies as expected. The slope approach proved to deviate strongly from the temporal development of the ground observations as well as from the threshold-defined SOS satellite measure. The slope spring indicator is considered to indicate a different stage in vegetation development and is therefore less suited as a SOS parameter for comparative studies in relation to ground-observed phenology. Satellite-derived metrics are, however, very susceptible to snow cover, and it is suggested that this snow cover should be better accounted for by the use of newer satellite sensors.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Analyses of single nucleotide polymorphisms in selected nutrient-sensitive genes in weight-regain prevention: the DIOGENES study

BACKGROUND: Differences in the interindividual response to dietary intervention could be modified by genetic variation in nutrient-sensitive genes. OBJECTIVE: This study examined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in presumed nutrient-sensitive candidate genes for obesity and obesity-related diseases for main and dietary interaction effects on weight, waist circumference, and fat mass regain over 6 mo. DESIGN: In total, 742 participants who had lost ≥ 8% of their initial body weight were randomly assigned to follow 1 of 5 different ad libitum diets with different glycemic indexes and contents of dietary protein. The SNP main and SNP-diet interaction effects were analyzed by using linear regression models, corrected for multiple testing by using Bonferroni correction and evaluated by using quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots. RESULTS: After correction for multiple testing, none of the SNPs were significantly associated with weight, waist circumference, or fat mass regain. Q-Q plots showed that ALOX5AP rs4769873 showed a higher observed than predicted P value for the association with less waist circumference regain over 6 mo (-3.1 cm/allele; 95% CI: -4.6, -1.6; P/Bonferroni-corrected P = 0.000039/0.076), independently of diet. Additional associations were identified by using Q-Q plots for SNPs in ALOX5AP, TNF, and KCNJ11 for main effects; in LPL and TUB for glycemic index interaction effects on waist circumference regain; in GHRL, CCK, MLXIPL, and LEPR on weight; in PPARC1A, PCK2, ALOX5AP, PYY, and ADRB3 on waist circumference; and in PPARD, FABP1, PLAUR, and LPIN1 on fat mass regain for dietary protein interaction. CONCLUSION: The observed effects of SNP-diet interactions on weight, waist, and fat mass regain suggest that genetic variation in nutrient-sensitive genes can modify the response to diet. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00390637.

Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

Female-specific intergenerational transmission patterns of the human corticolimbic circuitry

Parents have large genetic and environmental influences on offspring’s cognition, behavior, and brain. These intergenerational effects are observed in mood disorders, with particularly robust association in depression between mothers and daughters. No studies have thus far examined the neural bases of these intergenerational effects in humans. Corticolimbic circuitry is known to be highly relevant in a wide range of processes including mood regulation and depression. These findings suggest that corticolimbic circuitry may also show matrilineal transmission patterns. We therefore examined human parent-offspring association in this neurocircuitry, and investigated the degree of association in gray matter volume between parent and offspring. We used voxel-wise correlation analysis in a total of 35 healthy families, consisting of parents and their biological offspring. We found positive associations of regional grey matter volume in the corticolimbic circuit including the amygdala, hippocampus, anterior cingulate cortex, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex between biological mothers and daughters. This association was significantly greater than mother-son, father-daughter, and father-son associations. The current study suggests that the corticolimbic circuitry, which has been implicated in mood regulation, shows a matrilineal specific transmission patterns. Our preliminary findings are consistent with what has been found behaviorally in depression, and may have clinical implications for disorders known to have dysfunction in mood regulation such as depression. Studies such as ours will likely bridge animal work examining gene expression in the brains and clinical symptom-based observations, and provide promising ways to investigate intergenerational transmission patterns in the human brain.

Influence of ground surface characteristics on the mean radiant temperature in urban areas

The effect of variations in land cover on mean radiant surface temperature (Tmrt) is explored through a simple scheme developed within the radiation model SOLWEIG. Outgoing longwave radiation is parameterised using surface temperature observations on a grass and an asphalt surface, whereas outgoing shortwave radiation is modelled through variations in albedo for the different surfaces. The influence of surface materials on Tmrt is small compared to the effects of shadowing. Nevertheless, altering ground surface materials could contribute to a reduction on Tmrt to reduce the radiant load during heat-wave episodes in locations where shadowing is not an option. Evaluation of the new scheme suggests that despite its simplicity it can simulate the outgoing fluxes well, especially during sunny conditions. However, it underestimates at night and in shadowed locations. One grass surface used to develop the parameterisation, with very different characteristics compared to an evaluation grass site, caused Tmrt to be underestimated. The implications of using high resolution (e.g. 15 minutes) temporal forcing data under partly cloudy conditions are demonstrated even for fairly proximal sites.

Immunohistochemical, tomographic and histological study on onlay bone graft remodeling. Part II: calvarial bone

Objectives Little information is available on the molecular events that occur during graft incorporation over time. The calvarial bone (Cb) grafts have been reported to produce greater responses compared with other donor regions in maxillofacial reconstructions, but the scientific evidences for this are still lacking. The objectives of this study are (1) to study the morphological pattern of Cb onlay bone grafts and compare them with the biological events through immunohistochemical responses and (2) to establish the effects of perforations in maintaining the volume and bone density of the receptor bed. Material and methods Sixty New Zealand White rabbits were submitted to Cb onlay bone grafts on the mandible. In 30 rabbits, the receptor bed was perforated (perforated group), while for the remaining animals the bed was kept intact (non-perforated group). Six animals from each group were sacrificed at 5, 7, 10, 20 and 60 days after surgery. Histological sections from the grafted area were prepared for immunohistochemical and histological analyses. Immuno-labeling was found for proteins Osteoprotegerin (OPG), receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa beta ligand (RANKL), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), osteopontin (OPN), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), Type I collagen (COL I) and osteocalcin (OC). The tomography examination [computerized tomography (CT) scan] was conducted just after surgery and at the sacrifice. Results The histological findings revealed that the perforations contributed to higher bone deposition during the initial stages at the graft-receptor bed interface, accelerating the graft incorporation process. The results of the CT scan showed lower resorption for the perforated group (P < 0.05), and both groups showed high bone density rates at 60 days. This set of evidences is corroborated by the immunohistochemical outcomes indicating that proteins associated with revascularization and osteogenesis (VEGF, OPN, TRAP and ALP) were found in higher levels in the perforated group. Conclusions These findings indicate that the bone volume of calvarial grafts is better maintained when the receptor bed is perforated, probably resulting from more effective graft revascularization and greater bone deposition. The process of bone resorption peaked between 20 and 60 days post-operatively in both groups although significantly less in the perforated group. To cite this article:Pedrosa Jr WF, Okamoto R, Faria PEP, Arnez MFM, Xavier SP, Salata LA. Immunohistochemical, tomographic and histological study on onlay bone grafts remodeling. Part II: calvarial bone.Clin. Oral Impl. Res. 20, 2009; 1254-1264.doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0501.2009.01747.x.

Hypo- and hyperthyroidism affect NEI concentration in discrete brain areas of adult male rats

To date, there has been only one in vitro study of the relationship between neuropeptide EI (NEI) and the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis. To investigate the possible relationship between NEI and the HPT axis, we developed a rat model of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism that allows us to determine whether NEI content is altered in selected brain areas after treatment, as well as whether such alterations are related to the time of day. Hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, induced in male rats, with 6-propyl-1-thiouracil and L-thyroxine, respectively, were confirmed by determination of triiodothyronine, total thyroxine, and thyrotropin levels. All groups were studied at the morning and the afternoon. In rats with hypothyroidism, NEI concentration, evaluated on postinduction days 7 and 24, was unchanged or slightly elevated on day 7 but was decreased on day 24. In rats with hyperthyroidism, NEI content, which was evaluated after 4 days of L-thyroxine administration, was slightly elevated, principally in the preoptic area in the morning and in the median eminence-arcuate nucleus and pineal gland in the afternoon, the morning and afternoon NEI contents being similar in the controls. These results provide the bases to pursue the study of the interaction between NEI and the HPT axis. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cellulose swelling by aprotic and protic solvents: What are the similarities and differences?

The swelling of microcrystalline, native and mercerized cotton and eucalyptus celluloses by 16 aprotic solvents was investigated. The number of moles of solvent/anhydroglucose unit, nSw, correlates well with solvent molar volume, basicity and dipolarity/polarizability. Swelling is sensitive to cellulose crystallite size, surface area and the presence of its chains in parallel or anti-parallel arrangements. Use of solvatochromic parameters is a superior alternative to the use of other descriptors, such as Hildebrand`s solubility parameters and Gutmann`s donor numbers. The calculated nSw for 28 protic and aprotic solvents correlated well with their experimental counterparts, although hydrogen bond donation by the solvent was not included.

Excited-State Dynamics in fac-[Re(CO)(3)(Me(4)phen)(L)](+)

Excited-state dynamics in fac-[Re(CO)(3)(Me(4)phen)(cis-L)](+) (Me(4)phen = 3,4,7,8-tetramethyl-1,10-phenanthroline, L = 4-styrylpyridine (stpy) or 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethylene (bpe)) were investigated by steady-state and time-resolved techniques. A complex equilibrium among three closely lying excited states, 3IL(cis-L), (3)MLCT(Re -> me4phen), and (3)IL(Me4phen), has been established. Under UV irradiation, cis-to-trans isomerization of coordinated cis-L is observed with a quantum yield of 0.15 in acetonitrile solutions. This photoreaction competes with radiative decay from (3)MLCT(Re -> Me4phen) and (3)IL(Me4phen) excited states, leading to a decrease in the emission quantum yield relative to the nonisomerizable complex fac-[Re(CO)(3)(Me(4)phen)(bpa)](+) (bpa = 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane). From temperature-dependent time-resolved emission measurements in solution and in poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) films, energy barriers (Delta E(a)) for interconversion between (3)MLCT(Re -> me4Phen) and (3)IL(Me4phen) emitting states were determined. For L = cis-stpy, Delta E(a) = 11 (920 cm(-1)) and 15 kJ mol(-1) (1254 cm(-1)) in 5:4 propionitrile/butyronitrile and PMMA, respectively. For L = cis-bpe, Delta E(a) = 13 kJ mol(-1) (1087 cm(-1)) in 5:4 propionitrile/butyronitrile. These energy barriers are sufficient to decrease the rate constant for internal conversion from higher-lying (3)IL(me4phen) state to (3)MLCT(Re -> Me4phen), k(i) congruent to 10(6) s(-1). The decrease in rate allows for the observation of intraligand phosphorescence, even in fluid medium at room temperature. Our results provide additional insight into the role of energy gap and excited-state dynamics on the photochemical and photophysical properties of Re(I) polypyridyl complexes.