An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

Brazilian community health agents and qualitative primary healthcare information

The aim of this study was to explore female community health agents’ views about the value of recording qualitative information on contextual health issues they observe during home visits, data that are not officially required to be documented for the Brazilian System of Primary Healthcare Information. Background: The study was conducted in community primary healthcare centres located in the cities of Araçatuba and Coroados (state of São Paulo) and Rio de Janeiro (state of Rio de Janeiro), Brazil. Methods: The design was a qualitative, exploratory study. The purposeful sampling criteria were being female, with a minimum of three years of continuous service in the same location. Data collection with 62 participants was conducted via 11 focus groups (in 2007 and 2008). Audio files were transcribed and submitted to the method of thematic analysis. Four themes guided the analysis: working with qualitative information and undocumented observation; reflecting on qualitative information; integrating/analysing quantitative and qualitative information; and information-sharing with agents and family health teams. In 2010, 25 community health agents verified the final interpretation of the findings. Findings: Participants valued the recording of qualitative, contextual information to expand understanding of primary healthcare issues and as an indicator of clients’ improved health behaviour and health literacy. While participants initiated the recording of additional health information, they generally did not inform the family health team about these findings. They perceived that team members devalued this type of information by considering it a reflection of the clientele’s social conditions or problems beyond the scope of medical concerns. Documentation of qualitative evidence can account for the effectiveness of health education in two ways: by improving preventative care, and by amplifying the voices of underprivileged clients who live in poverty to ensure the most appropriate and best quality primary healthcare for them.

Behaviour and applications of elastic waves in structures and metamaterials

The present thesis focuses on elastic waves behaviour in ordinary structures as well as in acousto-elastic metamaterials via numerical and experimental applications. After a brief introduction on the behaviour of elastic guided waves in the framework of non-destructive evaluation (NDE) and structural health monitoring (SHM) and on the study of elastic waves propagation in acousto-elastic metamaterials, dispersion curves for thin-walled beams and arbitrary cross-section waveguides are extracted via Semi-Analytical Finite Element (SAFE) methods. Thus, a novel strategy tackling signal dispersion to locate defects in irregular waveguides is proposed and numerically validated. Finally, a time-reversal and laser-vibrometry based procedure for impact location is numerically and experimentally tested. In the second part, an introduction and a brief review of the basic definitions necessary to describe acousto-elastic metamaterials is provided. A numerical approach to extract dispersion properties in such structures is highlighted. Afterwards, solid-solid and solid-fluid phononic systems are discussed via numerical applications. In particular, band structures and transmission power spectra are predicted for 1P-2D, 2P-2D and 2P-3D phononic systems. In addition, attenuation bands in the ultrasonic as well as in the sonic frequency regimes are experimentally investigated. In the experimental validation, PZTs in a pitch-catch configuration and laser vibrometric measurements are performed on a PVC phononic plate in the ultrasonic frequency range and sound insulation index is computed for a 2P-3D phononic barrier in the sonic frequency range. In both cases the numerical-experimental results comparison confirms the existence of the numerical predicted band-gaps. Finally, the feasibility of an innovative passive isolation strategy based on giant elastic metamaterials is numerically proved to be practical for civil structures. In particular, attenuation of seismic waves is demonstrated via finite elements analyses. Further, a parametric study shows that depending on the soil properties, such an earthquake-proof barrier could lead to significant reduction of the superstructure displacement.

Social and regional variations in health status and health behaviours among Swiss young adults

OBJECTIVE To provide nationwide data on health status and health behaviours among young adults in Switzerland, and to illustrate social and regional variations. METHODS Data came from the Swiss Federal Surveys of Adolescents, conducted in 2010/11. The sample consisted of 32,424 young men and 1,467 young women. We used logistic regression models to examine patterns of social inequality for three measures of health status and three measures of health behaviour. RESULTS Among men, lower self-rated health, overweight and lower physical fitness levels were associated with lower educational and fewer financial resources. Patterns were similar among young women. Unfavourable self-rated health (odds ratio [OR]: men 0.83, women 0.75) and overweight (OR: men 0.84, women 0.85; p >0.05) were less common in the French- than in the German-language region. Low physical fitness was more common in the French- than in the German-language region. In both sexes, daily smoking was associated with fewer educational resources, and physical inactivity was associated with lower educational and fewer financial resources. Males from the Italian-language region were three times more likely to be physically inactive than their German-speaking counterparts (OR 2.95). Risk drinking was more widespread among males in the French- than in the German-speaking language region (OR 1.47). CONCLUSIONS Striking social and moderate regional differences exist in health status and health behaviours among young Swiss males and females. The current findings offer new empirical evidence on social determinants of health in Switzerland and suggest education, material resources and regional conditions to be addressed in public health practice and in more focused future research.

Environmental justice and health practices: understanding how health inequities arise at the local level

While empirical evidence continues to show that people living in low socio-economic status neighbourhoods are less likely to engage in health-enhancing behaviour, our understanding of why this is so remains less than clear. We suggest that two changes could take place to move from description to understanding in this field; (i) a move away from the established concept of individual health behaviour to a contextualised understanding of health practices; and (ii) a switch from focusing on health inequalities in outcomes to health inequities in conditions. We apply Pierre Bourdieu's theory on capital interaction but find it insufficient with regard to the role of agency for structural change. We therefore introduce Amartya Sen's capability approach as a useful link between capital interaction theory and action to reduce social inequities in health-related practices. Sen's capability theory also elucidates the importance of discussing unequal chances in terms of inequity, rather than inequality, in order to underscore the moral nature of inequalities. We draw on the discussion in social geography on environmental injustice, which also underscores the moral nature of the spatial distribution of opportunities. The article ends by applying this approach to the 'Interdisciplinary study of inequalities in smoking' framework.

Age-of-onset-dependent influence of NOD2 gene variants on disease behaviour and treatment in Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND: Influence of genetic variants in the NOD2 gene may play a more important role in disease activity, behaviour and treatment of pediatric- than adult-onset Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: 85 pediatric- and 117 adult-onset CD patients were tested for the three main NOD2 CD-associated variants (p.R702W, p.G908R and p.10007fs) and clinical data of at least two years of follow-up were compared regarding disease behaviour and activity, response to therapy and bone mineral density (BMD). RESULTS: Chronic active and moderate to severe course of CD is associated in patients with pediatric-onset (p=0.0001) and NOD2 variant alleles (p=0.0001). In pediatric-onset CD the average PCDAI-Score was significantly higher in patients carrying NOD2 variants (p=0.0008). In addition, underweight during course of the disease (p=0.012) was associated with NOD2 variants. Interestingly, osteoporosis was found more frequently in patients carrying NOD2 variant alleles (p=0.033), especially in pediatric-onset CD patients with homozygous NOD2 variants (p=0.037). Accordingly, low BMD in pediatric-onset CD is associated with a higher PCDAI (p=0.0092), chronic active disease (p=0.0148), underweight at diagnosis (p=0.0271) and during follow-up (p=0.0109). Furthermore, pediatric-onset CD patients with NOD2 variants are more frequently steroid-dependent or refractory (p=0.048) and need long-term immunosuppressive therapy (p=0.0213). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggests that the presence of any of the main NOD2 variants in CD is associated with osteoporosis and an age of onset dependent influence towards underweight, higher disease activity and a more intensive immunosuppressive therapy. This observation supports the idea for an early intensive treatment strategy in children and adolescent CD patients with NOD2 gene variants.

Health control beliefs in old age - relationship with subjective and objective health and health behavior

The main purpose of this paper is to explore health control beliefs (internality, powerful others, chance) in different age cohorts of elderly people and to examine the relationship between health control beliefs and objective and subjective health, and health behaviour. This contribution shows data from an interdisciplinary longitudinal ageing study: (a) a descriptive analysis of age- and time-correlated changes in health control beliefs of different cohorts of elderly people by taking into account gender as a differential aspect; (b) group comparisons between objectively and subjectively healthy or sick people and their health control beliefs and health relevant behaviour. Participants are 442 community elderly, 309 men, 133 women, aged 65± 94 years (mean age: 74.95 years). Our data demonstrate the dominance of chance control beliefs over internality and powerful others in all age cohorts. It can be concluded that internal control remains stable well into old age, whereas a signi® cant age-correlated increase of externality can be observed. Our results show the signi® cant relationship of subjective health self-evaluations with health control beliefs and health behaviour which is not the case for objective health parameters. Strong gender effects are found for internality and social externality: women have signi® cantly lower internality and powerful others scores than men.

The effect of seasonal temperature variation on behaviour and metabolism in the freshwater mussel (Unio tumidus)

Temperature plays a critical role in determining the biology of ectotherms. Many animals have evolved mechanisms that allow them to compensate biological rates, i.e. adjust biological rates to overcome thermodynamic effects. For low energy-organisms, such as bivalves, the costs of thermal compensation may be greater than the benefits, and thus prohibitive. To examine this, two experiments were designed to explore thermal compensation in Unio tumidus. Experiment 1 examined seasonal changes in behaviour in U. tumidus throughout a year. Temperature had a clear effect on burrowing rate with no evidence of compensation. Valve closure duration and frequency were also strongly affected by seasonal temperature change, but there was slight evidence of partial compensation. Experiment 2 examined oxygen consumption during burrowing, immediately following valve opening and at rest in summer (24 °C), autumn (14 °C), winter (4 °C), and spring (14 °C) acclimatized U. tumidus. Again, there was little evidence of burrowing rate compensation, but some evidence of partial compensation of valve closure duration and frequency. None of the oxygen compensation rates showed any evidence of thermal compensation. Thus, in general, there was only very limited evidence of thermal compensation of behaviour and no evidence of thermal compensation of oxygen compensation rates. Based upon this evidence, we argue that there is no evolutionary pressure for these bivalves to compensate these biological rates. Any pressure may be to maintain or even lower oxygen consumption as their only defence against predation is to close their valves and wait. An increase in oxygen consumption will be detrimental in this regard so the cost of thermal compensation may outweigh the benefits.

Sexual abuse, antisocial behaviour and substance use: gender differences in young community adolescents

Objective: To investigate gender-specific relationships between self-reported sexual abuse, antisocial behaviour and substance use in a large community sample of adolescents. Method: A cross-sectional study of students aged, on average, 13 (n = 2596), 14 (n = 2475) and 15 years (n = 2290), from 27 schools in South Australia with a questionnaire including sexual abuse, frequency and severity of substance use, depressive symptomatology (CES-D), family functioning (McMaster Family Assessment Device), and antisocial behaviour (an adapted 22-item Self-Report Delinquency Scale). Logistic regression analyses using HLM V5.05 with a population-average model were conducted. Results: In the model considered, reported sexual abuse is significantly independently associated with antisocial behaviour, controlling for confounding factors of depressive symptomatology and family dysfunction, with increased risks of three- to eightfold for sexually abused boys, and two- to threefold for sexually abused girls, compared to nonabused. Increased risks of extreme substance use in sexually abused girls (age 13) and boys (ages 13-15) are more than fourfold, compared to nonabused. Age differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Childhood sexual abuse is a risk factor for the development of antisocial behaviour and substance use in young adolescents. Clinicians should be aware of gender differences.

Swimming behaviour and post-swimming activity in Vitamin D receptor knockout mice

Animal experiments have shown that Vitamin D plays a role in both brain development and adult brain function. The adult Vitamin D receptor null mutant mouse (VDR -/-) is reported to be less active and more anxious than wild-type litter mate controls and to have poor swimming ability. However, an anxious behavioural phenotype is inferred from differences in locomotor behaviour. This is a general problem in behavioural phenotyping where a neurological phenotype is inferred from changes in locomotion which will be affected by non-neurological factors, such as muscle fatigue. In this study of VDR -/-, we conducted a detailed examination of one form of motor behaviour, swimming, compared to wildtype littermate controls. Swimming was assessed using a forced swim test, a laneway swimming test and a watermaze test using a visible platform. Post-swimming activity was assessed by comparing grooming and rearing behaviour before, and 5 min after, the forced swimming test. We replicated previous findings in which VDR -/- mice demonstrate more sinking episodes than wildtype controls in the forced swim test but they were similar to controls in the time taken to swim a 1 m laneway, and in the time taken to reach a visible platform in the watermaze. Thus, the VDR -/- mice were able to swim but were not able to float. Grooming and rearing behaviour of the VDR -/- mice was similar to wildtype controls before the forced swim but the VDR -/- were much less active after the swim compared with wildtype mice which displayed high levels of grooming and rearing. We conclude that VDR -/- mice have muscular and motor impairments that do not affect their ability to swim but significantly alters the ability to float as well as their post-swimming activity. Differences in muscle strength may confound tests of activity that are used to infer an anxious phenotype. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.