Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures

Many different performance measures have been developed to evaluate field predictions in meteorology. However, a researcher or practitioner encountering a new or unfamiliar measure may have difficulty in interpreting its results, which may lead to them avoiding new measures and relying on those that are familiar. In the context of evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications, this article aims to promote the use of a range of performance measures. Some of the types of performance measures that are introduced in order to demonstrate a six-step approach to tackle a new measure. Using the example of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation predictions for the Danube floods of July and August 2002, to show how to use new performance measures with this approach and the way to choose between different performance measures based on their suitability for the task at hand is shown. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Artefact-oriented business process modelling: an ontological dependency approach

Business process modelling can help an organisation better understand and improve its business processes. Most business process modelling methods adopt a task- or activity-based approach to identifying business processes. Within our work, we use activity theory to categorise elements within organisations as being either human beings, activities or artefacts. Due to the direct relationship between these three elements, an artefact-oriented approach to organisation analysis emerges. Organisational semiotics highlights the ontological dependency between affordances within an organisation. We analyse the ontological dependency between organisational elements, and therefore produce the ontology chart for artefact-oriented business process modelling in order to clarify the relationship between the elements of an organisation. Furthermore, we adopt the techniques from semantic analysis and norm analysis, of organisational semiotics, to develop the artefact-oriented method for business process modelling. The proposed method provides a novel perspective for identifying and analysing business processes, as well as agents and artefacts, as the artefact-oriented perspective demonstrates the fundamental flow of an organisation. The modelling results enable an organisation to understand and model its processes from an artefact perspective, viewing an organisation as a network of artefacts. The information and practice captured and stored in artefact can also be shared and reused between organisations that produce similar artefacts.

Evaluation of the Plant–Craig stochastic convection scheme (v2.0) in the ensemble forecasting system MOGREPS-R (24 km) based on the Unified Model (v7.3)

The Plant–Craig stochastic convection parameterization (version 2.0) is implemented in the Met Office Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-R) and is assessed in comparison with the standard convection scheme with a simple stochastic scheme only, from random parameter variation. A set of 34 ensemble forecasts, each with 24 members, is considered, over the month of July 2009. Deterministic and probabilistic measures of the precipitation forecasts are assessed. The Plant–Craig parameterization is found to improve probabilistic forecast measures, particularly the results for lower precipitation thresholds. The impact on deterministic forecasts at the grid scale is neutral, although the Plant–Craig scheme does deliver improvements when forecasts are made over larger areas. The improvements found are greater in conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, for which convective precipitation is likely to be less predictable.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

Analysis of Climatic Factors Impact on RSV Infection Distribution in Children Attending Childcare at Northwest Region of São Paulo, Brazil

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was detected in samples collected from children from 0 to 6 years of age with acute respiratory infection, attending public childcare on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil. RSV distribution was associated to seasonal climatic variables as temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. We utilized samples of nasopharyngeal aspirate collected during the period of July 2003 to September 2005. RT-PCR was the chosen method for viral identification. Results showed that from the 817 samples (collected from 179 children), 7.7% (63/817) were RSV positive. In 2003, RSV was detected from July until October. In 2004, RSV infections occurred in March, May, June, July, October, November, and December. In 2005, RSV was detected in March, April, May, August, and September. RSV circulation patterns in childcare children showed seasonal distribution associated to decreases in temperature and relative air humidity. RSV was detected in childcare children as an important viral agent causing respiratory infections, with varying patterns of circulation into the cohort during the study period. Moreover, RSV distribution showed to be associated with the dry season on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil.

Violence against children and adolescents: awareness and attitudes of Brazilian dentists

Violence against children and adolescents, ranging from negligence to sexual abuse, is an imperative public health problem. The ill treatments are considered as nonaccidental traumas, actions or omissions against children, who suffer physical or emotional violence. The main perpetrators are fathers, mothers, guardians, family, friends or the children‘s primary caretaker. It is very important to identify abuse cases, because this allows proper medical and legal intervention. In Brazil, the law n. 8.069, of July 13, 1990, known as the ECA -Statute for Children and Adolescents (SCA), stipulates the obligation to report suspected or confirmed cases of ill treatment against a child or adolescent to the Guardianship Council of the respective locality. The health professionals play a crucial role with regard to identifying cases of violence, collecting information, making early diagnosis of suspect cases and reporting such cases to the authorities. The dentists can contribute significantly, as most injuries occur in the orofacial region. Bite marks, burns, bruising, among others, are easily identified during a dental consultation. The aim of this work was to verify the awareness and attitudes of Brazilian dentists concerning violence against children and adolescents. This research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Dentistry of Araraquara – São Paulo State University (FOAr – UNESP). Sixty-three dentists answered an open and closed questionnaire concerning their formation, knowledge, experience and attitudes towards ill-treated children and adolescents. Among other results, thirty-nine dentists (61.9%) affirmed to have the means to identify illtreatment cases, 13 (20.6%) reported having some experience on this matter, but only 8 reported the cases to the Council of Guardianship, as determined by Brazilian law. Twenty percent of the reasons presented for not notifying the Council were fear of reprisal, and 60.0% were uncertain concerning the ethical and legal implications. Physical violence was the most reported form of identified violence (76.9%), followed by negligence (38.5%). Among the 13 professionals that had experience with violence cases, in 10 cases the perpetrators were identified – in 70.0% of the cases, the parents were the originators of such violence. It was concluded that further formation and orientation are necessary, in order to prepare dentists to act correctly when, during their professional activities, they encounter cases of violence against children and adolescents.

Dormancy breaking of the fig tree with hydrogen cyanamide and garlic extrate

The supply of cold hours needed to the dormancy breaking of shoots is the limiting factor for the cultivation of temperate climate fruit trees in warmer regions. In subtropical conditions, it is necessary to use chemical products to promote uniform sprouting. This research aimed at evaluating the effect of garlic extract and hydrogen cyanamide in sprouting, growth, production and production cycle of the fig tree. The experiment was conducted during the production cycles of 2011/12 and 2012/13. We used plants from the cultivar Roxo de Valinhos. Production pruning was made in the months of July/2011 and July/2012, and the following treatments were applied immediately after it: 2% hydrogen cyanamide and garlic extract in 4%, 8% and 12% doses, and a control treatment. Split plots were used as the experimental design, with five repetitions in blocks; each plot consisted of five treatments with hydrogen cyanamide, garlic extract and control; the subplots consisted of two production cycles. The use of hydrogen cyanamide promoted an anticipation of sprouting and the use of hydrogen cyanamide and garlic extract promoted a concentration of the productive period, when compared to the control. The estimated garlic extract dose that promoted the highest production per plant was 3%.

SCWDS BRIEFS: Volume 20, Number 2 (July 2004)

National Veterinary Services Laboratories in Ames, Iowa, confirmed vesicular stomatitis (VS) in horses at one premises in Texas. As of July 21, 2004, infected animals were identified on a total of 45 premises in Colorado (11), New Mexico (21), and Texas (13). These are the first reports of VS in livestock in the United States since the 1998 epizootic. SCWDS VS Studies Chronic Wasting Disease Developments: nearly 118,000 wild white-tailed deer, mule deer, and elk were tested in the United States from October 2002 to September 2003, with 592 animals testing positive for the CWD prion. More than $38,000,000 was spent by federal and state wildlife and animal health agencies on CWD-related activities during this same period. The Second International Chronic Wasting Disease Symposium, hosted by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, will be held in Madison, Wisconsin, July 12-14, 2005. Crow Decoys Used in West Nile Virus Study Although Lyme disease caused by a spirochete bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi, is relatively rare in the southeastern United States, a Lyme disease-like infection referred to as Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness (STARI) and thought to be caused by Borrelia lonestari, has been recognized in people in this region. The Ohio Division of Wildlife joined SCWDS as an associate member beginning July 1, 2004. The Final Report of the 2003 Hemorrhagic Disease (HD) Surveillance project has been completed and distributed to all cooperators. New of Caroline Duffie, Robbie Edalgo and wife Jen, Clay George, Darrell Kavanaugh, Lynn Lewis-Weiss’s husband, Dr. Kevin Weiss, and Nate Mechlin. New SCWDS staff include Brian Chandler, Jay Cumbee, Ginger Goekjian, Bill Hamrick, Sabrina McGraw, Kerri Pedersen, and Ben Wilcox. Recent SCWDS Publications Available

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

Epidemiology and population genetics of Podosphaera fusca and Golovinomyces orontii, causal agents of cucurbit powdery mildew

In 2010, 2011 and 2012 growing seasons, the occurrence of the ascomycetes Podosphaera fusca and Golovinomyces orontii, causal agents of powdery mildew disease, was monitored on cultivated cucurbits located in Bologna and Mantua provinces to determine the epidemiology of the species. To identify the pathogens, both morphological and molecular identifications were performed on infected leaf samples and a Multiplex-PCR was performed to identify the mating type genes of P. fusca isolates. The investigations indicated a temporal succession of the two species with the earlier infections caused by G. orontii, that seems to be the predominant species till the middle of July when it progressively disappears and P. fusca becomes the main species infecting cucurbits till the end of October. The temporal variation is likely due to the different overwintering strategies of the two species instead of climatic conditions. Only chasmothecia of P. fusca were recorded and mating type alleles ratio tended to be 1:1. Considering that only chasmothecia of P. fusca were found, molecular-genetic analysis were carried out to find some evidence of recombination within this species by MLST and AFLP methods. Surprisingly, no variations were observed within isolates for the 8 MLST markers used. According to this result, AFLP analysis showed a high similarity within isolates, with SM similarity coefficient ranging between 0.91-1.00 and also, sequencing of 12 polymorphic bands revealed identity to some gene involved in mutation and selection. The results suggest that populations of P. fusca are likely to be a clonal population with some differences among isolates probably due to agricultural practices such as fungicides treatments and cultivated hosts. Therefore, asexual reproduction, producing a lot of fungal biomass that can be easily transported by wind, is the most common and useful way to the spread and colonization of the pathogen.

Implementation of the conjugate heat transfer code in KIVA-4

KIVA is an open Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) source code that is capable to compute the transient two and three-dimensional chemically reactive fluid flows with spray. The latest version in the family of KIVA codes is the KIVA-4 which is capable of handling the unstructured mesh. This project focuses on the implementation of the Conjugate Heat Transfer code (CHT) in KIVA-4. The previous version of KIVA code with conjugate heat transfer code has been developed at Michigan Technological University by Egel Urip and is be used in this project. During the first phase of the project, the difference in the code structure between the previous version of KIVA and the KIVA-4 has been studied, which is the most challenging part of the project. The second phase involves the reverse engineering where the CHT code in previous version is extracted and implemented in KIVA-4 according to the new code structure. The validation of the implemented code is performed using a 4-valve Pentroof engine case. A solid cylinder wall has been developed using GRIDGEN which surrounds 3/4th of the engine cylinder and heat transfer to the solid wall during one engine cycle (0-720 Crank Angle Degree) is compared with that of the reference result. The reference results are nothing but the same engine case run in the previous version with the original code developed by Egel. The results of current code are very much comparable to that of the reference results which verifies that successful implementation of the CHT code in KIVA-4.

Integration of Pasturing Systems for Cattle Finishing Programs

A 3-year study, using 84 fall-born and 28 spring-born calves of similar genotypes, was conducted to integrate pasturing systems with drylot feeding systems. Calves were started on test following weaning in May and October. Seven treatments were imposed: 1) fall-born calves directly into feedlot; 2 and 3) fall-born calves put on pasture with or without ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of July; 4 and 5) fall-born calves put on pasture with or without ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of October; 6 and 7) spring-born calves put on pasture with or without ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of October. A bromegrass pasture consisting of 16 paddocks, each 1.7 acre in size, was available. Each treatment group had access to 1 paddock at a time and was rotated at approximately 3-day intervals. In the feedlot, steers were provided an 82% concentrate diet containing whole-shelled corn, ground alfalfa hay, and a protein, vitamin and mineral supplement containing ionophore and molasses. As pens of cattle reached about 1150 lb. average live weight, they were processed and carcass traits were evaluated. Pasture daily gains were highest for cattle on pasture for the longest duration (P < .03), and overall daily gains were highest for drylot cattle (P < .01) and decreased with increased time spent on pasture. Although differences among treatments existed in numerical scores for yield and quality grades (P < .05 and P < .03, respectively), all treatments provided average yield grade scores of 2 and quality grades of low Choice or higher. Use of four production costs and pricing scenarios revealed that fall-born calves placed on pasture for varying lengths of time were the most profitable (P < .04) among the treatments. Furthermore, employing a 5% price sensitivity analysis, indicated that fed-cattle selling price had great impact on profit potential and was followed in importance by feeder purchase price and corn grain price. Overall, these findings should provide significant production alternatives for some segments of the cattle feeding industry and also lend substantial credence to the concept of sustainable agriculture.

Integration of Pasturing Systems for Cattle Finishing Programs: A Progress Report

A three-year study was conducted to integrate pasturing systems with drylot feeding systems. Each year 84 fall-born and 28 spring-born calves of similar genotypes were used. Fall-born calves were started on test in May, and spring-born calves were started in October. Seven treatments were imposed: 1) fall-born calves directly into the feedlot (28 steers); 2 and 3) fall-born calves put on pasture with or without an ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of July (14 steers in each treatment); 4 and 5) fall-born calves put on pasture with or without an ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of October (14 steers in each treatment); and 6 and 7) spring-born calves put on pasture with or without an ionophore and moved to the feedlot at the end of October (14 steers in each treatment). Cattle on pasture receiving an ionophore gained faster (P=.009), but lost this advantage in drylot (P>.10). Overall, cattle started directly in the feedlot had higher gains (P<.001). Cattle receiving an ionophore on pasture had lower KPH than those that did not receive an ionophore (P<.01). Treatment influenced yield grade (P<0.001), although all treatments were YG 2. The percentage of cattle grading Prime and Choice was 75 % or higher for all treatment groups. The results show that using an ionophore improved pasture gains and that pasture treatments did not adversely influence yield and quality grades.

A review of antithrombotic therapy and the rationale and design of the randomized edoxaban in patients with peripheral artery disease (ePAD) trial adding edoxaban or clopidogrel to aspirin after femoropopliteal endovascular intervention.

Compared with the coronary setting, knowledge about antithrombotic therapies after endovascular treatment (EVT) is inadequate in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). Based on a review of trials and guidelines, which is summarized in this article, there is scant evidence that antithrombotic drugs improve outcome after peripheral EVT. To address this knowledge gap, the randomized, open-label, multinational edoxaban in patients with Peripheral Artery Disease (ePAD) study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01802775) was designed to explore the safety and efficacy of a combined regimen of antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel and anticoagulation with edoxaban, a selective and direct factor Xa inhibitor, both combined with aspirin. As of July 2014, 203 patients (144 men; mean age 67 years) from 7 countries have been enrolled. These patients have been allocated to once-daily edoxaban [60 mg for 3 months (or 30 mg in the presence of factors associated with increased exposure)] or clopidogrel (75 mg/d for 3 months). All patients received aspirin (100 mg/d) for the 6-month duration of the study. The primary safety endpoint is major or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding; the primary efficacy endpoint is restenosis or reocclusion at the treated segment(s) measured at 1, 3, and 6 months using duplex ultrasound scanning. All outcomes will be assessed and adjudicated centrally in a masked fashion. The ePAD study is the first of its kind to investigate a combined regimen of antiplatelet therapy and anticoagulation through factor Xa inhibition with edoxaban.

An intercontinental comparison of chironomid palaeotemperature inference models: Europe vs North America

Chironomid-temperature inference models based on North American, European and combined surface sediment training sets were compared to assess the overall reliability of their predictions. Between 67 and 76 of the major chironomid taxa in each data set showed a unimodal response to July temperature, whereas between 5 and 22 of the common taxa showed a sigmoidal response. July temperature optima were highly correlated among the training sets, but the correlations for other taxon parameters such as tolerances and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS) regression coefficients were much weaker. PLS, weighted averaging, WA-PLS, and the Modern Analogue Technique, all provided useful and reliable temperature inferences. Although jack-knifed error statistics suggested that two-component WA-PLS models had the highest predictive power, intercontinental tests suggested that other inference models performed better. The various models were able to provide good July temperature inferences, even where neither good nor close modern analogues for the fossil chironomid assemblages existed. When the models were applied to fossil Lateglacial assemblages from North America and Europe, the inferred rates and magnitude of July temperature changes varied among models. All models, however, revealed similar patterns of Lateglacial temperature change. Depending on the model used, the inferred Younger Dryas July temperature decrease ranged between 2.5 and 6°C.