Societal transformation in response to global environmental change: a review of emerging concepts

The study of societal transformation in response to environmental change has become established, yet little consensus exists regarding the conceptual basis of transformation. This paper aims to provide structure to the dialog on transformation, and to reflect on the challenges of social research in this area. Concepts of transformation are identified through a literature review, and examined using four analytical criteria. It is found that the term ‘transformation’ is frequently used merely as a metaphor. When transformation is not used as a metaphor, eight concepts are most frequently employed. They differ with respect to (i) system conceptualization, (ii) notions of social consciousness (deliberate/emergent), and (iii) outcome (prescriptive/descriptive). Problem-based research tends to adopt concepts of deliberate transformation with prescriptive outcome, while concepts of emergent transformation with no prescriptive outcome tend to inform descriptive-analytical research. Dialog around the complementarities of different concepts and their empirical testing are priorities for future research.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

A Prospective Follow-up Study of 44 Mandibular Immediately Loaded Implants Using Resonance Frequency Analysis: Preliminary 1-Year Results

Purpose: This clinical study aimed to evaluate initial, 4-months, and 1-year stability of immediately loaded dental implants inserted according to a protocol of lower rehabilitation with prefabricated bars. Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 11 edentulous patients. In each patient, 4 interforaminal implants were inserted. Immediately after implant installation, resonance frequency analysis (RFA) for each fixation was registered as well as after 4 months and 1 year with the prosthetic bar removed as it is a screwed system. Results: The clinical implant survival rate was 100%. The RFA showed an increase in stability after 4 months from 64.09 +/- 648 to 64.31 +/- 4.96 and I year, 67.11 +/- 4.37. The analysis of variance showed a statistically significant result (P = 0.015) among implant stability quotient values for the different periods evaluated. Tukey test results showed statistically significant differences between 1-year results and the initial periods but there was no statistically significant difference between initial and 4-month results (P > 0.05). Conclusion: These preliminary 1-year results indicate that immediate loading of mandibular dental implants using the studied prefabricated bars protocol is a reliable treatment as it is in accordance with the results described in the literature for other similar techniques. (Implant Dent 2009; 18:530-538)

Perception of eating practices and stages of change among Brazilian adolescents

Objective. To evaluate the perception of eating practices and the stages of change among adolescents. Methods. Cross-sectional study involving a representative sample of 390 adolescents from 11 public schools in the city of Piracicaba, Brazil, in 2004. Food consumption was identified by a food frequency questionnaire and the perception of eating practices evaluation was conducted by comparing food consumption and individual classification of healthy aspects of the diet. The participants were classified within stages of change by means of a specific algorithm. A reclassification within new stages of change was proposed to identify adolescents with similar characteristics regarding food consumption and perception. Results. Low consumption of fruit and vegetables and high consumption of sweets and fats were identified. More than 44% of the adolescents had a mistaken perception of their diet. A significant relationship between the stages of change and food consumption was observed. The reclassification among stages of change, through including the pseudo-maintenance and non-reflective action stages was necessary, considering the high proportion of adolescents who erroneously classified their diets as healthy. Conclusion. Classification of the adolescents into stages of change, together with consumption and perception data, enabled identification of groups at risk, in accordance with their inadequate dietary habits and non-recognition of such habits. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Os efeitos da redução da jornada de trabalho de 48 para 44 horas semanais sobre o mercado de trabalho no Brasil

The reduction of standard weekly working hours from the curreilt leveI of 44 hours to 40 hours has recently been proposed by the main central unions as a way to create jobs and reduce unemployment in Brazil. The idea, known as work-sharing, is that the reduction in average hours per worker allows the same tasks to be performed bymore employees. However, the notion ofwork-sharing has been challenged by the theoretical and the empirical literature. Theory says that, in general, a reduction in the duration ofthe workweek tends to decrease employment. Work-sharing is even less likely in the case of no wage restraint, when monthly wages are not proportionally reduced. Recent cautious econometric evidence also conflict with the notion of work -sharing (Hunt, 1999, and Crépon and Kramarz, 2000). The objective ofthis paper is to study the effects ofthe workweek length reduction from 48 to 44 hours, prescribed by the 1988 Constitutional change, on the Brazilian labor market. We find that: i) the reduction of standard working hours was followed by a significant decrease in actual working hours: 60,7% ofthe employees that worked between 45 and 48 weekly hours in 1988 (the affected group) and that remained employed in 1989 switched to a 40-44 hours workweek; ii) belonging to the affected group in 1988 had no statistical effect on the probability ofbecoming unemployed, exiting the labor market, or switching to an informal job in 1989; iii) the reduction in working hours implied a 8,8% increase in hourly real wages with respect to those that remained employed at 40-44 hours a week. In sum, the reduction of standard working hours in 1988 reduced actual working hours, did not affect the probability ofa typical worker to lose hisjob in 1989, and implied a relative increase in hourly real wages.

Energy and lysine for broilers from 44 to 55 days of age

An experiment was conducted to evaluate the performance and carcass yield of broilers at 55 days of age fed diets with different levels of metabolizable energy and lysine. Evaluated data of performance were weight gain, feed intake, energy intake, lysine intake, caloric conversion and feed conversion. Carcass assessment was performed based on data from carcass yield, breast weight, whole wings, whole legs, back, head + neck, feet and abdominal fat. A 3 x 3 factorial arrangement was used, with 3 levels of metabolizable energy (3,200; 3,400 and 3,600 kcal ME/kg) and 3 lysine levels (0.95%; 1.05% and 1.15%). There was no interaction between the two factors. Nevertheless, increasing levels of metabolizable energy improved weight gain (745 g; 841 g and 910 g, respectively) and feed intake was higher in broilers receiving the diets with 3,200 and 3,600 kcal ME/kg. Overall performance was not affected by lysine levels. Feed conversion values were 2.69, 2.42 and 2.14 for birds fed diets with 3,200; 3,400 and 3,600 kcal ME/kg, respectively. Carcass yield and breast weight increased with higher levels of energy and lysine in the diets.

Estimativas de tendências e parâmetros genéticos do peso padronizado aos 378 dias de idade, medidas corporais e perímetro escrotal de machos Nelore de Sertãozinho, SP

Os objetivos deste estudo foram estimar as tendências e os parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos do peso padronizado aos 378 dias de idade (P378), medidas corporais e perímetro escrotal de machos Nelore, pertencentes às populações selecionadas e controle da Estação Experimental de Zootecnia de Sertãozinho. As herdabilidades, estimadas considerando-se modelo de touro e modelo animal, foram, respectivamente, 0,53±0,12 e 0,36 para P378; 0,38±0,11 e 0,58 para altura na garupa; 0,31±0,10 e 0,10 para perímetro torácico; 0,40± 0,11 e 0,13 para comprimento do corpo; 0,39±0,11 e 0,30 para comprimento do dorso; 0,33±0,10 e 0,12 para comprimento da garupa; 0,08± 0,07 e 0,14 para distância de ísquios; 0,23±0,09 e 0,08 para distância de íleos e 0,57±0,13 e 0,44 para perímetro escrotal. A correlação genética mais alta entre P378 e medidas corporais foi encontrada para perímetro torácico (0,86 ± 0,08); as demais variaram de 0,46 a 0,72. Os resultados deste estudo mostraram que, em função dos valores médios a altos das herdabilidades estimadas para P378 e da maioria das características de medidas do corpo dos animais, houve considerável variação genética aditiva nesses atributos. Além disso, devido às altas correlações genéticas de P378 com a maioria das características, pode-se concluir ser bastante provável que grande parte dos genes que controlam o peso pós-desmame também seja responsável pelo desenvolvimento das diferentes regiões do corpo de machos Nelore. A magnitude desses parâmetros justifica a tendência genética positiva nas características de seleção direta e nas secundárias.

Effects of age and gender on upper airway, lower airway and upper lip growth

The aim of the present retrospective study was to evaluate the influence of age and gender on upper and lower airway width and upper lip length. In this study, 390 lateral cephalograms were divided into 13 age groups (ranging from 6 to 18 years) and were analyzed. The inter-group differences were analyzed using a MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of the Variance), and the intragroup differences were analyzed using an ANOVA (Analysis of the Variance) and Tukey's test. The results of the present study indicated that although the airway width and the upper lip length increased with age, the lower airway width exhibited variable growth between the ages of six and eighteen years. The airway width was significantly greater in females than males, whereas the upper airway width was similar between these two genders. The lip length was significantly shorter in females than males. The lower airway width and upper lip length were significantly different between males and females, whereas the upper airway width was similar for the genders. The upper airway width and upper lip exhibited incremental growth between the ages of six and eighteen years. The upper lip closely followed the growth pattern of the upper airway width; the growth plateaued between the ages of 6 and 9 years, increased from 9 to 16 years and plateaued from 16 to 18 years.

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos e fenotípicos e análise de componentes principais para características de crescimento na raça Canchim

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)