Aggressive Behaviour of Different Social and Demographic Groups in Post-Totalitarian Society

The project looked at aggressiveness in different age and social groups of modern post-totalitarian society, beginning with the hypotheses that the greatest risk groups are teenagers and the unemployed, and that there is a link between aggression and the level of meaningfulness of life. The groups studied comprised about 200 persons from urban areas of eastern Ukraine, including schoolchildren, students, white collar workers, self-employed persons, the unemployed and pensioners. Workers in industry were not included as this group has virtually disappeared in Ukraine at present since most enterprises have ceased to work and most workers have moved into the groups of the unemployed or self-employed. Participants were divided into age groups of 13-14, 16-17, 18-22, 24-45, 46-60 and over 60, with each group including approximately equal number of men and women. Research methods included Buss-Darky techniques, the "hand test" (E. Wagner), the "non-existent animal" technique, a Rozenzweig picture frustration study, purpose-in-life tests and an interview. The Buss-Darky test showed that schoolchildren have the highest level of aggression, followed by students. These groups have high indexes in virtually all types of aggression, including its open form. The self-employed have relatively lower indexes, although they are more likely to manifest it openly, while such open manifestations are less likely among white-collar workers, pensioners and the unemployed. The least aggressive were the unemployed and pensioners, although the latter had a relatively high level of hostility. In terms of age, aggression was shown to decrease with age, which Ms. Ivanova attributes to the still imperfect control mechanisms of teenagers and their less mature personalities. Among the younger groups girls showed a slightly higher level of aggression, although this situation was reversed among older people. The risk groups inclined to manifest open forms of aggressiveness can therefore be seen to be teenagers and students. Other tests used show aggressiveness as a feature of the current state, rather than as an inherent feature and the results obtained were somewhat different. In the interviews, all adults referred to the increased aggressiveness in society and most stated that they themselves had become more aggressive and bad-tempered. The ability of individuals to adapt to their social environment was also investigated and schoolchildren turned out to have the lowest adaptation index and the unemployed the highest. MS. Ivanova attributes that latter, rather surprising, result to the fact that the constant frustrations facing the unemployed force them to actively seek ways and means of adapting in order to survive. The final aspect considered was the possible connection between human aggressiveness and the meaningfulness of life. Here the groups with the most meaningful lives were the self-employed and pensioners. The latter result, again rather surprising, was attributed to the desire of people who have already lived the greater part of their lives to place more weight on what they have already done, in order to prove to themselves that they have not lived in vain. The hypothesis that aggressiveness is conversely related to the meaningfulness of life was only partially confirmed. In the two extreme cases (schoolchildren and pensioners) this was indeed the case, but the remaining groups did not show any such connection. From the data obtained, Ms. Ivanova concluded that life in modern post-totalitarian society does indeed foster a rise in people's aggressiveness, and this was supported by the fact that indexes of aggressiveness proved to be higher than the norm. Her original hypothesis as to the groups in society most at risk from open aggression confirmed in the case of teenagers but not of the unemployed, who had relatively low aggressiveness indexes and the highest degree of adaptation.

Genetic variation and demographic history of the Haplochromis laparogramma group of Lake Victoria-An analysis based on SINEs and mitochondrial DNA

More than 500 endemic haplochromine cichlid species inhabit Lake Victoria. This striking species diversity is a classical example of recent explosive adaptive radiation thought to have happened within the last similar to 15,000 years. In this study, we examined the population structure and historical demography of 3 pelagic haplochromine cichlid species that resemble in morphology and have similar niche, Haplochromis (Yssichromis) laparogramma, Haplochromis (Y.) pyrrhocephalus, and Haplochromis (Y.) sp. "glaucocephalus". We investigated the sequences of the mitochondrial DNA control region and the insertion patterns of short interspersed elements (SINEs) of 759 individuals. We show that sympatric forms are genetically differentiated in 4 of 6 cases, but we also found apparent weakening of the genetic differentiation in areas with turbid water. We estimated the timings of population expansion and species divergence to coincide with the refilling of the lake at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. We also found that estimates can be altered significantly by the choice of the shape of the molecular clock. If we employ the nonlinear clock model of evolutionary rates in which the rates are higher towards the recent, the population expansion was dated at around the event of desiccation of the lake ca. 17,000 YBP. Thus, we succeeded in clarifying the species and population structure of closely related Lake Victoria cichlids and in showing the importance of applying appropriate clock calibrations in elucidating recent evolutionary events. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Mexican-American children from parental risk factors, and social and demographic characteristics in the HHANES

Objectives. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including CVD secondary to diabetes type II, a significant health problem among Mexican American populations, originates in early childhood. This study seeks to determine risk factors available to the health practitioner that can identify the child at potential risk of developing CVD, thereby enabling early intervention. ^ Design. This is a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data of matched Mexican American parents and children selected from the HHANES, 1982–1984. ^ Methods. Parents at high risk for CVD were identified based on medical history, and clinical and physical findings. Factor analysis was performed on children's skinfold thicknesses, height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, in order to produce a limited number of uncorrelated child CVD risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were then performed to determine other CVD markers associated with these Factors, independently for mothers and fathers. ^ Results. Factor analysis of children's measurements revealed three uncorrelated latent variables summarizing the children's CVD risk: Factor1: ‘Fatness’, Factor2: ‘Size and Maturity’, and Factor3: ‘Blood Pressure’, together accounting for the bulk of variation in children's measurements (86–89%). Univariate analyses showed that children from high CVD risk families did not differ from children of low risk families in occurrence of high blood pressure, overweight, biological maturity, acculturation score, or social and economic indicators. However, multiple regression using the factor scores (from factor analysis) as dependent variables, revealed that higher CVD risk in parents, was significantly associated with increased fatness and increased blood pressure in the children. Father's CVD risk status was associated with higher levels of body fat in his children and higher levels of blood pressure in sons. Mother's CVD risk status was associated with higher blood pressure levels in children, and occurrence of obesity in the mother associated with higher fatness levels in her children. ^ Conclusion. Occurrence of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in parents of Mexican American children, may be used to identify children at potentially higher risk for developing CV disease in the future. Obesity in mothers appears to be an important marker for the development of higher levels of body fatness in children. ^

A comparison of labor and delivery management activities in two settings

Similarities and differences in management activities and patient health outcomes between a traditional physician staffed labor and delivery setting and a certified nurse-midwife staffed Birth Center within the same hospital were described. The 950 study subjects, low income, minority women, were classified as low obstetrical risk by a POPRAS score of 25 points or less at time of admission for labor and delivery. The study subjects were similar in demographic, antepartum and intrapartum characteristics; the labor course was problem free for the majority in both settings. There were no remarkable differences in health outcomes between the groups. Management activities varied between settings; these variations were policy related rather than health related. The POPRAS rating system was an accurate predictor for 93% of BC subjects and 85% of LDU subjects. Charge for service was approximately $600 less for BC women; length of stay did not contribute to the difference in charge. Overall, BC respondents to the attitude survey were more satisfied with their labor and delivery experience than L\&DU women. ^

Migration, labor and business in the worlding cities of the Arabian Peninsula

This short essay, built on a foundation of more than a decade of fieldwork in the hydrocarbon-rich societies of the Arabian peninsula, distills a set of overarching threads woven through much of that time and work. Those threads include a discussion of the social heterogeneity of the Gulf State citizenries, the central role of development and urban development in these emergent economies, the multifaceted impact of migrants and migration upon these host societies, and the role of foreign 'imagineers' in the portrayal of Gulf societies, Gulf values, and Gulf social norms.

VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.