Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Training control centers' operators in incident diagnosis and power restoration using intelligent tutoring systems

The activity of Control Center operators is important to guarantee the effective performance of Power Systems. Operators’ actions are crucial to deal with incidents, especially severe faults like blackouts. In this paper, we present an Intelligent Tutoring approach for training Portuguese Control Center operators in tasks like incident analysis and diagnosis, and service restoration of Power Systems. Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) approach is used in the training of the operators, having into account context awareness and the unobtrusive integration in the working environment. Several Artificial Intelligence techniques were criteriously used and combined together to obtain an effective Intelligent Tutoring environment, namely Multiagent Systems, Neural Networks, Constraint-based Modeling, Intelligent Planning, Knowledge Representation, Expert Systems, User Modeling, and Intelligent User Interfaces.

Caracterização do potencial eólico urbano: o caso de Lisboa

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização em Edificações

Influence of network effects on the diffusion of information systems: the case of open source

Doutoramento em Gestão

Environmental data management in the Sado Estuary

Estuaries are perhaps the most threatened environments in the coastal fringe; the coincidence of high natural value and attractiveness for human use has led to conflicts between conservation and development. These conflicts occur in the Sado Estuary since its location is near the industrialised zone of Peninsula of Setúbal and at the same time, a great part of the Estuary is classified as a Natural Reserve due to its high biodiversity. These facts led us to the need of implementing a model of environmental management and quality assessment, based on methodologies that enable the assessment of the Sado Estuary quality and evaluation of the human pressures in the estuary. These methodologies are based on indicators that can better depict the state of the environment and not necessarily all that could be measured or analysed. Sediments have always been considered as an important temporary source of some compounds or a sink for other type of materials or an interface where a great diversity of biogeochemical transformations occur. For all this they are of great importance in the formulation of coastal management system. Many authors have been using sediments to monitor aquatic contamination, showing great advantages when compared to the sampling of the traditional water column. The main objective of this thesis was to develop an estuary environmental management framework applied to Sado Estuary using the DPSIR Model (EMMSado), including data collection, data processing and data analysis. The support infrastructure of EMMSado were a set of spatially contiguous and homogeneous regions of sediment structure (management units). The environmental quality of the estuary was assessed through the sediment quality assessment and integrated in a preliminary stage with the human pressure for development. Besides the earlier explained advantages, studying the quality of the estuary mainly based on the indicators and indexes of the sediment compartment also turns this methodology easier, faster and human and financial resource saving. These are essential factors to an efficient environmental management of coastal areas. Data management, visualization, processing and analysis was obtained through the combined use of indicators and indices, sampling optimization techniques, Geographical Information Systems, remote sensing, statistics for spatial data, Global Positioning Systems and best expert judgments. As a global conclusion, from the nineteen management units delineated and analyzed three showed no ecological risk (18.5 % of the study area). The areas of more concern (5.6 % of the study area) are located in the North Channel and are under strong human pressure mainly due to industrial activities. These areas have also low hydrodynamics and are, thus associated with high levels of deposition. In particular the areas near Lisnave and Eurominas industries can also accumulate the contamination coming from Águas de Moura Channel, since particles coming from that channel can settle down in that area due to residual flow. In these areas the contaminants of concern, from those analyzed, are the heavy metals and metalloids (Cd, Cu, Zn and As exceeded the PEL guidelines) and the pesticides BHC isomers, heptachlor, isodrin, DDT and metabolits, endosulfan and endrin. In the remain management units (76 % of the study area) there is a moderate impact potential of occurrence of adverse ecological effects and in some of these areas no stress agents could be identified. This emphasizes the need for further research, since unmeasured chemicals may be causing or contributing to these adverse effects. Special attention must be taken to the units with moderate impact potential of occurrence of adverse ecological effects, located inside the natural reserve. Non-point source pollution coming from agriculture and aquaculture activities also seem to contribute with important pollution load into the estuary entering from Águas de Moura Channel. This pressure is expressed in a moderate impact potential for ecological risk existent in the areas near the entrance of this Channel. Pressures may also came from Alcácer Channel although they were not quantified in this study. The management framework presented here, including all the methodological tools may be applied and tested in other estuarine ecosystems, which will also allow a comparison between estuarine ecosystems in other parts of the globe.

SPARTS: simulator for power aware and real-time systems

Real-time systems demand guaranteed and predictable run-time behaviour in order to ensure that no task has missed its deadline. Over the years we are witnessing an ever increasing demand for functionality enhancements in the embedded real-time systems. Along with the functionalities, the design itself grows more complex. Posed constraints, such as energy consumption, time, and space bounds, also require attention and proper handling. Additionally, efficient scheduling algorithms, as proven through analyses and simulations, often impose requirements that have significant run-time cost, specially in the context of multi-core systems. In order to further investigate the behaviour of such systems to quantify and compare these overheads involved, we have developed the SPARTS, a simulator of a generic embedded real- time device. The tasks in the simulator are described by externally visible parameters (e.g. minimum inter-arrival, sporadicity, WCET, BCET, etc.), rather than the code of the tasks. While our current implementation is primarily focused on our immediate needs in the area of power-aware scheduling, it is designed to be extensible to accommodate different task properties, scheduling algorithms and/or hardware models for the application in wide variety of simulations. The source code of the SPARTS is available for download at [1].

Extensible metadata repository for information systems

Thesis submitted to Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Computer Science

A Web-Based geographical information system prototype on Portuguese traditional food products

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Exploratory geospatial data analysis using self-organizing maps

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Planear e inovar : contributo para o planeamento de recursos com base nas necessidades auto-avaliadas pela população com 65 e mais anos

RESUMO - Enquadramento: O envelhecimento da população ocorre em todas as sociedades desenvolvidas, resultando num aumento da prevalência da dependência funcional, associado recorrentemente à presença de doenças crónicas. Estes novos padrões demográficos, epidemiológicos, implicando populações vulneráveis com necessidades específicas, resultam em desafios incontestáveis. Como resposta a este novo paradigma, em 2006, Portugal implementa a Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados (RNCCI). Finalidade/objectivos: Caracterização da população com base no perfil das necessidades auto-referidas pelas pessoas com ≥65 anos, com algum nível de independência/dependência nas actividades de vida diária e/ou com pelo menos uma doença crónica. Pretende-se, ainda, desenvolver uma metodologia que permita simular cenários que contribuam para o planeamento do número de camas para internamento de carácter permanente em Unidades de Longa Duração e Manutenção (ULDM) da RNCCI. Metodologia: Construção de dois indicadores: índice de independência/dependência e existência ou não de doenças crónicas. Análise estatística e caracterização, individual e conjunta, das variáveis sociodemográficas, socioeconómicas, auto-avaliação do estado de saúde, nível de independência/dependência e/ou existência de pelo menos uma doença crónica. Simulação de cenários com base nas metas definidas pela RNCCI para 2013. Resultados e Conclusões: Da aplicação do índice de independência/dependência, resulta que 78,8% são independentes na realização das actividades de vida diária e 21,2% apresentam algum nível de dependência. À excepção do Centro, todas as regiões apresentam padrões similares. Globalmente, os resultados obtidos vão de encontro aos enunciados na literatura internacional, realçando-se apenas alguns mais pertinentes: Observa-se uma predominância de mulheres idosas. Destaca-se também uma relação directa entre a idade e os níveis de dependência. As variáveis socioeconómicas indicam que a existência de algum nível de dependência tende a ser mais frequente entre os que têm menor escolaridade e rendimento. Em média o estado de saúde é auto-avaliado como mau, piorando com o aumento da idade e níveis de dependência mais acentuados e melhorando com o aumento da escolaridade. Da simulação de cenários destaca-se que, face às 4 camas previstas nas metas de 2013, seria de alocar em média 1,7 camas ou 1 cama ao internamento permanente em ULDM. Trabalhar em rede implica canais de comunicação. A incorporação da distribuição espacial das necessidades e serviços com recurso aos sistemas de informação geográfica torna-se numa mais-valia. Possibilita avaliar hipóteses, análises sustentadas e disseminação de informação e resultados, contribuindo para um planeamento, monitorização e avaliação mais eficaz e eficiente das actividades do sector da saúde. ---------------------------------- ABSTRACT - Background: Population aging occurs in all developed societies resulting in an increased prevalence of functional dependence, frequently associated with the presence of chronic diseases. These new demographic and epidemiological patterns, which include dependency ad vulnerability situations, with specific needs, result in undeniable challenges. In response to this new paradigm, in 2006, Portugal implements the National Network for Integrated Care (RNCCI). Aim/Objectives: Characterize the population based on the self-reported needs of ≥65 year’s people, with some level of independence/dependency in activities of daily living and/or with at least one chronic disease. Also intends to develop a methodological approach that allows scenarios simulation which contributes to the planning of the number of permanent inpatient beds in Long Term Care Units (ULDM) of RNCCI. Methods: Construction of two indicators: independence/dependence index and existence of chronic diseases. Statistical analysis and characterization, individually and jointly, of sociodemographics, socioeconomics, selfassessment of health status, level of independence/dependence and/or existence of at least one chronic disease variables. Scenarios simulation based on RNCCI targets set for 2013. Results and Conclusions: According with independence/dependence index, 78.8% are independent in carrying out the activities of daily living and 21.2% have some level of dependency. With the exception of the Centroregion, all regions have similar patterns. Generally, the results are concordant with international literature, highlighting here only some of the most relevant results: A predominance of older women is observed. A direct relationship between age and levels of dependence is emphasized. Socio-economic variables indicate that the existence of some level of dependency tends to be more frequent among those with lower income and education levels. On average, health status is self-assessed as poor, being even more critical with aging and higher dependency level. On the other hand, high education levels are related with better health status. Scenarios simulations highlights that, based on 4 beds considered in the 2013 planned goals, an average of 1.7 or 1 beds in ULDM should be allocated to permanent inpatient beds. Networking involves communication channels. The incorporation of spatial distribution of needs and services using geographical information systems becomes an added value. It enables hypothesis, evaluation, sustainable analysis and information and results dissemination, contributing to a more effective and efficient planning, monitoring and assessment of the health sector activities.

Maturity models in the hospital information systems management initial research

Os modelos de maturidade são instrumentos facilitadores da gestão das organizações, incluindo a gestão da sua função sistemas de informação, não sendo exceção as organizações hospitalares. Neste artigo apresenta-se uma investigação inicial que visa o desenvolvimento de um abrangente modelo de maturidade para a gestão dos sistemas de informação hospitalares. O desenvolvimento deste modelo justifica-se porque os modelos de maturidade atuais no domínio da gestão dos sistemas informação hospitalares ainda se encontram numa fase embrionária de desenvolvimento, sobretudo porque são pouco detalhados, não disponibilizam ferramentas para determinação da maturidade e não apresentam as características dos estágios de maturidade estruturadas por diferentes fatores de influência.

Interpretative research in information systems: two qualitative research design projects

In a scientific research project is important to define the underlying philosophical orientation of the project, because this will influence the choices made in respect of scientific methods used, as well as the way they will be applied. It is crucial, therefore, that the philosophy and research design strategy are consistent with each other. These questions become even more relevant in qualitative research. Historically, the interpretive research philosophy is more associated to the scientific areas of social sciences and humanities where the subjectivity inherent to human intervention is more explicitly defined. Information systems field are, primarily, trapped in computer science field, though it also integrates issues related with management and organizations field. This shift from a purely technological guidance for the consideration of the problems of management and organizations has fostered the rise of research projects according to the interpretive philosophy and using qualitative methods. This paper explores the importance of alignment between the epistemological orientation and research design strategy, in qualitative research projects. As a result, it is presented two PhD projects, with different research design strategies, that are being developed in the technology and information systems field, in the light of the interpretive paradigm.

A Multiple Criteria Utility-based Approa h for the Unit Commitment with Wind Power and Pumped Storage Hydro

The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

GIS capacity building for risk management to help developing countries:Case of climate change problem in Amhara rural region (Ethiopia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

GI Systems for public health with an ontology based approach

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.