Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments

It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not valid or is extremely unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Staiger and Stock (1997, Econometrica), Wang and Zivot (1998, Econometrica), Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. One possible way out consists here in using a variant of the Anderson-Rubin (1949, Ann. Math. Stat.) procedure. The latter, however, allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, which in general does not allow for individual coefficients. This problem may in principle be overcome by using projection techniques [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. AR-types are emphasized because they are robust to both weak instruments and instrument exclusion. However, these techniques can be implemented only by using costly numerical techniques. In this paper, we provide a complete analytic solution to the problem of building projection-based confidence sets from Anderson-Rubin-type confidence sets. The latter involves the geometric properties of “quadrics” and can be viewed as an extension of usual confidence intervals and ellipsoids. Only least squares techniques are required for building the confidence intervals. We also study by simulation how “conservative” projection-based confidence sets are. Finally, we illustrate the methods proposed by applying them to three different examples: the relationship between trade and growth in a cross-section of countries, returns to education, and a study of production functions in the U.S. economy.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

Single-Peaked Choice

Single-peaked preferences have played an important role in the literature ever since they were used by Black (1948) to formulate a domain restriction that is sufficient for the exclusion of cycles according to the majority rule. In this paper, we approach single-peakedness from a choice-theoretic perspective. We show that the well-known axiom independence of irrelevant alternatives (a form of contraction consistency) and a weak continuity requirement characterize a class of single-peaked choice functions. Moreover, we examine the rationalizability and the rationalizability-representability of these choice functions.

Externalities, Potential, Value and Consistency

We provide new characterization results for the value of games in partition function form. In particular, we use the potential of a game to define the value. We also provide a characterization of the class of values which satisfies one form of reduced game consistency.

La relation attitude-comportement : un état des lieux

La définition psychosociale de l’attitude en fait un état mental prédisposant à agir d’une certaine manière lorsque la situation implique la présence réelle ou symbolique de l’objet d’attitude, d’où l’effort récurrent d’évaluer ce lien qui existe entre les réponses verbales et les actes. L’auteur présente ainsi trois générations de travaux qui abordent, avec des éclairages différents la question de la consistance entre attitude et comportement : ceux qui concluent à une relation très faible, ceux qui concluent à une relation modérée, ceux qui mettent en évidence des conditions nécessaires à la prédictivité des attitudes.

Mealtime experiences of hospitalized older patients requiring a puree consistency diet

Le concept d’Hôpital Promoteur de Santé (HPS) a pris beaucoup d’importance depuis son élaboration vers la fin des années quatre-vingt. Dans le contexte de la dernière réforme, le réseau montréalais des HPS et CSSS a été créé. Le Centre Universitaire de Santé McGill (CUSM) fait partie de ce réseau depuis 2007. Cette étude vise la création d’un milieu hospitalier promoteur de la santé pour les patients et s’adresse à l’expérience d’un repas pour les personnes âgées nécessitant une diète purée. Une étude de cas qualitative a été utilisée pour explorer la perception de patients vis-à-vis les aspects relatifs à leur cabaret, l’assistance qu’ils recevaient et le contexte social de leur repas. Les impressions des professionnels de la santé quant à l’expérience des patients ont aussi été obtenues. Les résultats indiquent que l’identification difficile des aliments en purée, la saveur, l’apparence et la variété sont tous des éléments qui affectent négativement leur expérience repas. Des sentiments d’impuissance ont aussi été rapportés par les patients et les professionnels de la santé. Le contexte social du repas a été souligné comme étant un aspect à cibler pour améliorer l’expérience des patients. Un programme utilisant des purées formées pourrait contrecarrer les effets négatifs de la prescription d’une diète purée. Des changements dans les pratiques infirmières, à savoir la création d’une ambiance sociale agréable au moment des repas, semble être une option peu couteuse qui pourrait améliorer l’expérience repas des patients et diminuer les sentiments d’impuissance relevés par les professionnels de la santé à l’égard de cet aspect de soin.

Characterization of the unfolding of a weak focus and modulus of analytic classification

La thèse présente une description géométrique d’un germe de famille générique déployant un champ de vecteurs réel analytique avec un foyer faible à l’origine et son complexifié : le feuilletage holomorphe singulier associé. On montre que deux germes de telles familles sont orbitalement analytiquement équivalents si et seulement si les germes de familles de difféomorphismes déployant la complexification de leurs fonctions de retour de Poincaré sont conjuguées par une conjugaison analytique réelle. Le “caractère réel” de la famille correspond à sa Z2-équivariance dans R^4, et cela s’exprime comme l’invariance du plan réel sous le flot du système laquelle, à son tour, entraîne que l’expansion asymptotique de la fonction de Poincaré est réelle quand le paramètre est réel. Le pullback du plan réel après éclatement par la projection monoidal standard intersecte le feuilletage en une bande de Möbius réelle. La technique d’éclatement des singularités permet aussi de donner une réponse à la question de la “réalisation” d’un germe de famille déployant un germe de difféomorphisme avec un point fixe de multiplicateur égal à −1 et de codimension un comme application de semi-monodromie d’une famille générique déployant un foyer faible d’ordre un. Afin d’étudier l’espace des orbites de l’application de Poincaré, nous utilisons le point de vue de Glutsyuk, puisque la dynamique est linéarisable auprès des points singuliers : pour les valeurs réels du paramètre, notre démarche, classique, utilise une méthode géométrique, soit un changement de coordonée (coordonée “déroulante”) dans lequel la dynamique devient beaucoup plus simple. Mais le prix à payer est que la géométrie locale du plan complexe ambiante devient une surface de Riemann, sur laquelle deux notions de translation sont définies. Après avoir pris le quotient par le relèvement de la dynamique nous obtenons l’espace des orbites, ce qui s’avère être l’union de trois tores complexes plus les points singuliers (l’espace résultant est non-Hausdorff). Les translations, le caractère réel de l’application de Poincaré et le fait que cette application est un carré relient les différentes composantes du “module de Glutsyuk”. Cette propriété implique donc le fait qu’une seule composante de l’invariant Glutsyuk est indépendante.

Product Filters, Acyclicity and Suzumura Consistency

In a seminal contribution, Hansson (1976) demonstrates that the collection of decisive coalitions associated with an Arrovian social welfare function forms an ultrafilter. He goes on to show that if transitivity is weakened to quasi-transitivity as the coherence property imposed on a social relation, the set of decisive coalitions is a filter. We examine the notion of decisiveness with acyclical or Suzumura consistent social preferences and without assuming that the social relation is complete. This leads to a new set-theoretic concept applied to product spaces.

Top trading with fixed tie-breaking in markets with indivisible goods

We study markets with indivisible goods where monetary compensations are not possible. Each individual is endowed with an object and a preference relation over all objects. When preferences are strict, Gale's top trading cycle algorithm finds the unique core allocation. When preferences are not necessarily strict, we use an exogenous profile of tie-breakers to resolve any ties in individuals' preferences and apply Gale's top trading cycle algorithm for the resulting profile of strict preferences. We provide a foundation of these simple extensions of Gale's top trading cycle algorithm from strict preferences to weak preferences. We show that Gale's top trading cycle algorithm with fixed tie-breaking is characterized by individual rationality, strategy-proofness, weak efficiency, non-bossiness, and consistency. Our result supports the common practice in applications to break ties in weak preferences using some fixed exogenous criteria and then to use a 'good and simple' rule for the resulting strict preferences. This reinforces the market-based approach even in the presence of indifferences because always competitive allocations are chosen.

Visible luminescence mechanism in nano ZnO under weak confinement regime

We describe the structure of luminescence spectrum in the visible region in nano-ZnO in colloidal and thin film forms under weak confinement regime by modeling the transition from excited state energy levels of excitons to their ground state. Measurements on nanocrystallites indicate the presence of luminescence due to excitonic emissions when excited with 255 nm. The relevant energy levels showing the transitions corresponding to the observed peaks in the emission spectrum of ZnO of particle size 18 nm are identified.

A Study on the Engineering Behaviour of Grouted Loose Soils

The constructional activities in the coastal belt of our country often demand deep foundations because of the poor engineering properties and the related problems arising from weak soil at shallow depths.The soil profile in coastal area often consists of very loose sandy soils extending to a depth of 3 to 4 m from the ground level underlain by clayey soils of medium consistency.The very low shearing resistance of the foundation bed causes local as well as punching shear failure.Hence structures built on these soils may suffer from excessive settlements.This type of soil profile is very common in coastal areas of Kerala,especially in Cochin. Further,the high water table and limited depth of the top sandy layer in these areas restrict the depth of foundation thereby further reducing the safe bearing capacity.

Evidence for blueshift by weak exciton confinement and tuning of bandgap in superparamagnetic nanocomposites

Superparamagnetic nanocomposites based on Y-Fe2O3 and sulphonated polystyrene were synthesised by ion-exchange process and the structural characterisation has been carried out using X-ray diffraction technique. Doping of cobalt in to the Y-Fe2O3 lattice was effected in situ and the doping was varied in the atomic percentage range 1–10. The optical absorption studies show a band gap of 2.84 eV, which is blue shifted by 0.64 eV when compared to the reported values for the bulk samples (2.2 eV). This is explained on the basis of weak quantum confinement. Further size reduction can result in a strong confinement, which can yield transparent magnetic nanocomposites because of further blue shifting. The band gap gets red shifted further with the addition of cobalt in the lattice and this red shift increases with the increase in doping. The observed red shift can be attributed to the strain in the lattice caused by the anisotropy induced by the addition of cobalt. Thus, tuning of bandgap and blue shifting is aided by weak exciton confinement and further red shifting of the bandgap is assisted by cobalt doping.